Velez Sarsfield vs Tigre
FreeToday’s featured game is the Argentinian Primera Division game between Velez Sarsfield and Tigre. Hosts Velez Sarsfield are running out of games with which to overtake Estudiantes De La Plata and thus need the points whereas opponents Tigre have nothing left to play for whatsoever.
Whether Velez Sarsfield are aiming to overtake Estudiantes in the current table or just to push Racing Club Avellaneda and Atletico Lanus out of sight by winning tonight is anyone’s guess. However, a Copa Libertadores place remains the reward so Velez are definitely up for winning this game. They’ve been tremendous at home in the current campaign with six wins and just one draw in seven home games, scoring over two goals per home game on average and conceding just once along the way, which was against rivals River Plate so it’s hard to score against this side, to be blunt. As much as I like Velez, I still don’t rate their defence as highly as Banfield’s, for example. The reason I rate Velez a lot is because of their lethal attack. The pace in midfield from Zapata on the flank and his crosses for giant Silva in attack. The creativity of Moralez in the middle of the park and the tireless ways of Martinez in attack with Silva makes this Velez side very quick, tenacious, and rather clinical with a variety of options available to them. In the Primera Division, you need these kind of options to break sides down and it’s something that Velez have become very good at, especially at home, so I fancy them to win this one.
I don’t normally go against Tigre in this division, however. They’re not a particularly good side but they never give up and they’re simply one of those sides that puncture betting slips for fun. However, I’m banking on the insignificance of this fixture affecting the visitors for this one and if it does then this game should be a mere formality for Velez. Only four sides have conceded more than Tigre have on the road in the current campaign, which largely explains why Tigre have lost five out of eight on the road. The fact that they average scoring less than a goal per away game doesn’t help their away form either so statistically speaking, Tigre are pretty useless on the road. However, the three games that Tigre haven’t lost on the road in the current campaign were at Godoy Cruz de Mendoza, Banfield, and All Boys. Tigre are one of just two sides that have won at Godoy this season (a very good Godoy side, I might add) and one of just two sides that have managed to avoid defeat at newly-promoted All Boys so my point about them being a “coupon buster” is rather valid, regrettably. However, as I said earlier – they’ve no motivation for this game and they generally are poor on the road so I’ll take a chance here. They’ve lost their last three away games consecutively without scoring a goal so the stage is set for a similar outcome tonight against one of the two powers in Argentina currently.
Tigre have failed to score a goal against Velez in their last two attempts, losing 0-3 at home and 1-0 away against Velez Sarsfield so the current scenario is not uncommon for them. If Velez turn up in this game as they need to then they’ll win this game easily. I think odds of 2/5 on them winning this game are probably fair, to be honest. However, my call is for Velez to win to nil as I can’t for the life of me work out why Velez are 5/4 to win this game without conceding having won six out of seven at home this season and having conceded just once during those seven games! It doesn’t make sense to me at all so my call is Velez to win without conceding at far better odds than the outright win is priced at.
Verdict: Velez Sarsfield to win to nil at 5/4.
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Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
The only other game that interests me today is Llanelli vs Bangor City as an away win but given the extreme snowfall in the United Kingdom at the moment, I’m not convinced that the game will go ahead or not so I’ve not previewed it. Aside from that – nothing else interests me although you can see my thoughts on the remainder of today’s games below.
Argentinian Primera Division:
Velez Sarsfield vs Tigre (8) 2-0
English League Cup:
Arsenal vs Wigan Athletic (8) 2-0
West Ham United vs Manchester United (6) 0-1
English League Two:
Cheltenham Town vs Southend United (6) under 2.5 goals
French Ligue 1:
Stade Brestois vs Racing Club Lens (5) 0-0
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Paksi SE vs Ferencvaros (5) 1-1
Italian Serie B:
Frosinone vs Pescara (6)
Welsh Premier League:
Aberystwyth Town vs Airbus UK (6) 1-0
Llanelli vs Bangor City (7) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!