Viking Stavanger vs Brann Bergen
FreeToday’s selected game is between two sleeping giants in the Norwegian Tippeligaen – Viking Stavanger and Brann Bergen. The reason I’ve chosen this game is because I think there’s some cracking value in an away win at 9/5. Why? Allow me to explain!
Both of these sides participated in the Norwegian Cup mid-week. Brann Bergen beat local rivals Nest-Sodra 4-2 over 90 minutes after a trip westward to their island. Brann Bergen will be content with this because of their progression and because of their rivalry, no matter the difference in class between the two sides. Viking Stavanager, in a true testament to their season so far, endured a disappointing result at their local rivals Bryne, succumbing to a 1-0 defeat to a side that had only won 2 home games prior to this encounter. With Viking Stavanger’s league campaign already looking rocky, this defeat is untimely and unbalancing for them. They entertain a Brann Bergen side that not only won their mid-week cup game, as I mentioned earlier, but also a side that have won 3 games from their last 4. Brann Bergen also managed to emerge from this fixture last season with a victory. Looking at the above information, we could well have some value in an away win today. However, I do emphasise approaching with caution because both sides are sleeping giants so maybe take the draw no bet option. I’ll leave the final decision up to yourselves, however!
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
My favoured area today is Norway. Why? Mid-week cup games have stretched a lot of squads and upset some morale so there’s potentially a lot of value today in the Tippeligaen and Adeccoligaen. The bets I like the look of today are listed below in no particular order, although they do appear to be in the opposite order to the list of scores below the previews!
Viking Stavanger vs Brann Bergen – away win at 9/5 – see introduction for full details
Alta vs Honefoss – home win at 6/4. There’s not a lot between these two sides in terms of quality or form. Indeed, it’s questionable whether either side is better at home or away judging on their random performances so far this season, hence the odds of 6/4. However, the Norwegian Cup has played a big part in my decision today. Anyone that is sad enough to know geography as well as I do knows just how far Honefoss have travelled in these past few days. Honefoss had to travel over 1000 miles to get hammered by Tromso (4-0). If they’ve returned, they’ve gone a further 1000 miles. They now have an even further journey north to face Alta, which stands at about 1150 miles. You still with me? I make this out to be over 3000 miles over 5 days – that’s a long, long way to go for a squad that isn’t strong in depth. Even if Honefoss travelled straight to Alta from Tromso, that’s still another 200 miles on the back of a hefty defeat. I just don’t think Honefoss are going to have the mental or physical strength to get anything from today’s game. A final point would be that Alta are buoyant from their Norwegian Cup win at home on wedesday against Tippeligaen outfit Bodo Glimt, winning 3-0. They’re fresh, mentally prepared, their morale has been boosted and to top all that off – they’re the top scorers in the league currently. To put it simply – Honefoss look like they’re in for a rough ride!
Tromsdalen vs Sarpsborg – home win at 10/11. Much like in the Alta vs Honefoss preview, there’s not a lot between these two sides in terms of quality. There is a more defining feature for this game, however, and that’s Tromsdalen’s home record versus Sarpsborg’s away record. The home side have played 5 home games this season, winning 3, drawing 1 and losing 1. The visitors have lost 4 from 5 on the road this season, drawing the other game. Sarpsborg leak far too many goals on the road, so much so that even misfiring Tromsdalen should be able to take advantage of it. Neither side participated in the Norwegian Cup mid-week so both should be up for the encounter. However, a home win does look favourable today despite the poor form of the home side.
Molde vs Fredrikstad – home win with -1.5 goal handicap at 9/5. Both of these sides are good but Molde are the side that have made the best impression so far this season, currently sitting happily in second place in the table. Fredrikstad are somewhat surprised to fight themselves currently battling against relegation and look destined to lose this game having lost 4 from their last 5 games. Both of these sides competed in the Norwegian Cup mid-week and both were victorious after home wins. However, what caught my attention was that Fredrikstad were made to work for their victory, being dragged through extra time and penalties by plucky Ranheim. Fredrikstad will be that bit more tired entering this game, particularly as both of these two sides played on thursday instead of wednesday, unlike most of the sides in the competition. Lastly, Fredrikstad are amongst the biggest conceders in the division. This is to a sufficient extent, in my opinion, to counter the fact that Molde aren’t great at home and don’t score that many goals. In my opinion, the odds of 9/5 look tasty enough to bite but I will emphasise some caution on this selection, even though I fully expect Molde to triumph on the day regardless of the scoreline.
Lyn Oslo vs Odd Grenland Skien – away win at 6/4. Something has to give way between these two sides. Lyn Oslo haven’t won a home game in the Tippeligaen this season and Odd Grenland Skien, despite their impressive start to the season, still haven’t won an away game. Both of these sides prefer to draw rather than win, seemingly! That said, both sides won their respective Norwegian Cup games mid-week 2-0 and will take heart from that. Lyn Oslo have to be realistic and appreciate that a Norwegian Cup run may be the only thing that can salvage what has been a dismal campaign for them so far. Odd Grenland Skien, surprisingly, have their eyes firmly fixed upon a European place and will look to win their first away win in the Tippeligaen this season. Lyn Oslo haven’t won a league game home or away for ten games now and Odd Grenland Skien enter this game with two wins from their last three games. For me, there’s conceivably some value in an away win here, although taking an away win at draw no bet odds of 5/6 is a viable insurance option should you wish to take it.
Bodo Glimt vs Lillestrom – away win at 6/4. After a humiliating 3-0 defeat at Adeccoligaen outfit Alta mid-week, Bodo Glimt’s season has gone from bad to worse. They’re currently second from bottom in the Tippeligaen, they’ve lost their last three league games in a row and are generally finding life tough at the moment. Lillestrom have also struggled this campaign but are finally gaining some momentum. After a comfortable win at Asker in the Norwegian Cup mid-week, they now face the arduous trip north, one that few sides emerge successful from. However, they do enter this game having won three and drawn two of their last five games. For the above reasons, an away win does look rather tempting. I will emphasise a little caution here however, as the trip to Bodo is a lengthy one and Lillestrom don’t have the biggest squad in Norway to pick from.
Suduva Marijampole vs Vetra Vilnius – home win at 5/4. These two sides are arguably the two best in the Lithuanian A Lyga at the present time. Both play a relentlessly efficient style of football and none do it better than Suduva Marijampole in my opinion. The hosts have only conceded three goals in their entire campaign of which only one was at home. They boast a home record of four wins and one draw so far. Vetra Vilnius are no slouches, however, having won three games from five on the road this season, drawing one and losing one. However, they are the biggest goalscorers on the road, even if only marginally to today’s hosts Suduva Marijampole, but they also concede more goals than their hosts today. Head-to-head encounters show little between these sides other than it’s usually a dominating home win or a draw. I can’t help but feel that high-flying Suduva Marijampole have got the measure of rivals Vetra Vilnius this time around, however, so my call is a convincing home win.
Fram Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik – away win at 11/10. Let’s not beat around the bush here – KR Reykjavik are simply better than Fram Reykjavik. That’s the ultimate fundamental behind my selection. However, adding to that information today is the overwhelming fact that KR Reykjavik have beaten Fram Reykjavik six out of the last seven times these two sides have met anywhere, the other game ending in a draw a couple of years ago. Given Fram Reykjavik’s poor start to the season with just one win from seven games (which was their opening game of the season) and KR Reykavik’s emphatic start to the campaign with four wins from seven games, leaving them 3rd in the table and currently unbeaten away from home this season – I can only see that 11/10 is tremendous value for an away win. This is possibly my biggest recommendation of the day.
FH Hafnarfjordur vs Throttur Reykjavik – home side to win both halves at 1/2. Unfortunately, the odds of 2/11 for FH Hafnarfjodur to win this game are well-earned as they host a very poor Throttur Reykjavik. The reigning champions sit in their natural perch of 1st place in the table with an imposing six wins in a row as far as form goes. I’d say that it bodes ominously for lowly Throttur Reykjavik, but it doesn’t – there’s nothing ominous about the fact that they’re going to get annihlated in this game. The hosts have scored a minimum of two goals per game in all of the last six games. They’re currently averaging over 3 goals per home game and Throttur Reykjavik look destined for a beating, particularly as they can only boast one win from seven games this season, and only one point obtained from a possible twelve on the road. I’m going to jump on the halves card here because the outright win is without value. 1/2 for FH Hafnarfjordur to win both halves is a bargain, in my opinion, particularly as they managed to win both halves in this fixture the last time these two sides met in the league. FH Hafnarfjordur have won both halves in three of their last four games and I expect them to do so again today. 1/2 isn’t the best value in the world but it is when the chances of it occurring are as good as they are today! Well, that plus a nice stake…
Fylkir Reykjavik vs UMF Grindavik – home side to win both halves at 7/4. Fylkir Reykjavik have won three home games out of four this season, drawing the other. In those four games, they’ve scored in both halves on three occasions, winning two of those games in both halves. Today they entertain UMF Grindavik who can barely name a victory they’ve had, let alone a successive halves victory. They’ve taken one point from twelve on the road this season and average conceding 2.5 goals per game. They’re travelling to a side that are infinitely better than they are and a side that are in decent form with two wins and one draw from four games. Even if you don’t take the value that is 7/4 on Fylkir Reykjavik to win both halves, you surely have to nibble on the 4/6 odds for an outright home win here!
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo – home win at 5/4. Corinthians enter the game on the back of a morale-boosing Copa do Brasil first leg 2-0 victory over Internacional. They’re entertaining a Sao Paulo side that although aren’t conceding many goals in the league, they’re not scoring many either. They suffered a hammer blow mid-week in the Copa Libertadores, losing 2-0 at home to Cruzeiro in what was clearly an exasperating encounter for them as they had 2 men sent off. They’re now travelling to a very tough side who are playing well this season. They’ve won two games from three at home this season but the more intriguing information is that Sao Paulo not only haven’t won away from home this season (played 3, draw 2, lost 1) but they’ve not scored away from home this season. Despite these two sides having little quality difference between them, a home win certainly looks favourable here. A sly punt on under 2.5 goals is also recommended as neither side score or concede many goals.
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs River Plate – away win at 5/4. Argentinian giants River Plate are finally playing good football consistently again with their recent form boasting two wins from three games, the other being a draw. Their away form this season has been dismal but I fancy it to end here because Godoy Cruz de Mendoza are not only poor but in really poor form too. They’ve managed to lose their last three games in a row, one of which was a particularly embarassing defeat at home to Tigre, a side they consider their equal at the best of times. They’re entertaining a side who will want to win this game and a side that I think really should win this game too. 5/4 on an away win here is a potential steal.
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfeld – home win at 6/5. The hosts have to win this game to leapfrog Velez Sarsfeld in the league and as there’s only two games remaining (including this one) you know they’re going to be working hard for the three points. Velez Sarsfeld are flying high too, however, and boast the best away record in the league with five wins from nine games, only losing one. Lanus’ impeccable home record will certainly be put to the test as they’ve won eight from nine home games this campaign, losing the other. Either way, this game should be a great game with plenty of goalmouth action and no doubt a few cards. I think you’ve got to take a home win here, however, as Argentina is predominantly a league of few away wins at the best of times. The only other markets I’d look at would be over 2.5 goals as Lanus average over 2 goals per game at home and Velez Sarsfeld have scored in seven of their nine away games this season.
Huracan vs Arsenal de Sarandi – half time draw, full time home win at 3/1. The hosts have to win here to maintain their fantastic campaign and pile further pressure on the sides around them. Out of the top three sides, they have the easiest fixture, entertaining stragglers Arsenal de Sarandi, who boast a meager one win from nine away games in this campaign, losing six of them. The other two sides – Velez Sarsfeld and Lanus – play against each other so Huracan will certainly be keeping a watchful eye on this game. However, given their tremendous form of late (four wins from four games) and the fact that they’ve won seven games from nine at home this season, you really have to favour a home win. That in itself is pretty good value at 4/9 considering the above facts! However, my bet is for Huracan to be drawing at half-time and to win at full time at odds of 3/1. Huracan have a tendency to play that way on occasion. They won in this manner last match and again a couple of matches prior.
Brazil vs Italy – Brazil to win at 6/5. For me, this game boasts a massive amount of value in different areas that stem from the fact that Brazil are actually a lot better than Italy nowadays. Whereas Brazil aren’t as good as they were, Italy are on a downward spiral and don’t look like emerging from it anytime soon. Brazil don’t need to win this game; they’re already through to the latter stages. However, they will want to avoid Spain on the off-chance they get knocked out in the semi-finals so they will want to turn up, particularly against old rivals Italy. Italy have to win this game to have any chance of qualification at all and even then it depends on Egypt losing to USA. Italy will go all out to win this game and get hurt on the counter-attack by a rapid Brazilian side. The Italians hate nothing more than sides with players who will run at them because they don’t have to deal with that in Serie A atypically. I’m actually confident to a bizarre degree that Brazil will win this game and convincingly too. For some reason, I have 3-0 in my head but I don’t fancy a scorecast for this game. What I do fancy is a -1.5 goal handicap for Brazil at 7/2, over 2.5 goals at 10/11, or Brazil to win to nil at 11/4.
Egypt vs USA – under 2.5 goals at 4/5. Too many times have Egypt failed to deliver when they’re favourites – they much prefer being the underdogs for any encounter. They win the hard games and lose/draw the tough games. The main reason for this is that they’re not a great goalscoring nation. When they win, they win 1-0 or 2-0 generally and see out the game in a North African style that is becoming rather familiar these days. USA have nothing left to play for but will still play with spirit, such is the nature of their side. In terms of quality, there’s not a lot between these two sides whatsoever, despite what the table may show. This is why I’d advise staying away from outright winner bets on this game and go for a much safer under 2.5 goals call at 4/5. Neither of these sides are big goalscorers and neither of them tend to get battered either. If I had to pick a scoreline, I’d say 1-0 to Egypt, or possibly even 1-1, but I will stay backing the under 2.5 goals card because if Egypt take the lead, they will absolutely not go looking for another goal and the same applies to USA too.
As ever, any queries/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
Confederations Cup:
Brazil vs Italy (8) 3-0
Egypt vs USA (7) 1-0
World Cup Qualifiers – African section:
Guinea vs Malawi (8) 2-0
Mali vs Benin (8) 3-1
Argentinian Primera Division:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Colon de Santa Fe (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs River Plate (7) 1-2
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfeld (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Huracan vs Arsenal de Sarandi (9) 3-0
Boca Juniors vs Gimnasia De La Plata (7) 2-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Santos vs Atletico Mineiro (6) 1-1
Cruzeiro vs Gremio Barueri (8) 2-0
Flamengo vs Internacional (7) 1-1
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo (8) under 2.5 goals
Chinese Super League:
Shaanxi Zhongxin vs Hangzhou Lvcheng (7) 2-1
Colombian Futbol Profesional:
La Equidad Bogota vs Deportes Tolima (7) 1-2
Boyaca Chico vs Once Caldas Manizales (6) 2-1
Envigado vs Cucuta Deportivo (6) 1-1
Deportivo Cali vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (7) 2-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Macara Ambato vs Barcelona Guayaquil (8) 2-0
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
Vikingur Gotu vs HB Torshavn (5)
B68 Toftir vs IF Fuglafjordur (8) -1,5 goal handicap
AB Argir vs KI Klaksvik (7)
Icelandic Landsbankadeild Karla:
Fram Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik (8) 1-2
FH Hafnarfjordur vs Throttur Reykjavik (9) hosts to win both halves
Fylkir Reykjavik vs UMF Grindavik (8) hosts to win both halves
Keflavik vs Fjolnir Rekyjavik (7) 2-0
Japanese J-League:
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Vissel Kobe (7) 2-0
Yokohama F Marinos vs Urawa Red Diamonds (6) 2-2
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Banga Gargzdai vs Kruoja Pakruojis (8) 2-0
FK Siauliai vs Ekranas Panevezys (7) 0-1
FK Taurus Taurage vs LKKA Teledema Kaunas (7) 3-1
Suduva Marijampole vs Vetra Vilnius (8) 2-0
Norwegian Tippeligaen:
Staebek vs Start Kristiansand (8) 2-1
Lyn Oslo vs Odd Grenland Skien (7) 1-2
Stromsgodset vs Tromso (6) 1-1
Molde vs Fredrikstad (8) 2-0
Bodo Glimt vs Lillestrom (7) 1-2
Viking Stavanger vs Brann Bergen (6) 1-2
Norwegian Adeccoligaen:
Stavanger vs Haugesund (7)
Moss vs Mjondalen (6)
Kongsvinger vs Skeid Oslo (8)
Tromsdalen vs Sarpsborg (8)
Alta vs Honefoss (8)
Hamarkamaratene vs Lov Ham Bergen (7)
Sogndal vs Bryne (9)
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Tenerife vs Castellon (7)
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Defensor Sporting vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (7) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!