Villarreal vs VFL Wolfsburg
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game between Villarreal and VFL Wolfsburg. Hosts Villarreal won their first home game under new manager Garrido at weekend against Athletic Club de Bilbao so they’re looking to continue from there. VFL Wolfsburg have also replaced their manager in recent times but it’s yet to make a significant impact on their season.
Despite previous manager Ernesto Valverde having not paid the UEFA Europa League a great deal of respect earlier on in the season, he still guided Villarreal to two home wins out of three. We all know Villarreal are a capable side – it’s just whether they show it or not. I don’t know what Garrido’s committment to the UEFA Europa League is, in all honesty, but nothing else is going to come from their domestic campaign so why they wouldn’t go for the UEFA Europa League is beyond me. They beat a resilient Athletic Club de Bilbao 2-1 at weekend so they carry some momentum into this game. Few sides have any success at El Madrigal and Villarreal do tend to enjoy winning there too. With a mixture of their “honeymoon period”, some good momentum, and strength at home, I feel that Villarreal can take three points tonight.
Visitors VFL Wolfsburg have had a dismal campaign so far. It had to happen at somepoint, anybody that knows football will tell you that because Wolfsburg aren’t a good side. They did well to win the Bundesliga but the fact that five teams were still competing for it at the end of the season tells you that there was little consistency from any side and Wolfsburg simply took their chances better than their contemporaries so my respect goes to them for that. However, the pressure of now being favourites for games has affected them and has driven their opponents to work harder against them so Wolfsburg have really struggled. They’ve got some talented individuals but not enough to be a constant threat. Wolfsburg’s big problem is defence because they simply don’t know how to defend, which is unusual for a German side. They’ve leaked twelve goals in five Bundesliga games since returning from the winter break and although they have faced some tough sides they’ve simply not played well enough to deserve anything from those games. Wolfsburg lost two out of their three away games in the Champions League and have generally failed to convince me that they’re a side capable of playing on a big stage.
With Wolfsburg utterly devoid of defensive ability and confidence at the moment, it’s hard to see anything but Villarreal winning this game by taking the initiative and utilising their momentum. Villarreal are ultimately too good for Wolfsburg.
Verdict: Villarreal to win at 4/5.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Juventus – home win at 13/8.
I miss the days when this tie was amongst the biggest in Europe, back in the late 90’s. The days of Laudrup, Blind, Inzaghi, Ferrara etc. are long gone but these two clubs still share a very successful past and have played some great games over the years. Ironically, I expect this to also be a great game but in a different manner.
Hosts Ajax are currently the most prolific side in Holland. They’ve amassed an amazing sixty-five goals in twenty-three Eredivisie games, which is an average of nearly three goals per game. Any side with that kind of phenomenal goalscoring record is going to cause a side problems. Ajax enter this game on the back of three consecutive wins, each with a clean sheet whilst scoring nine times. Their 3-0 demolition of Twente Enschede will have done much to inspire the Dutch giants and their confidence will be sky high as a result. Ajax have failed to convince me in Europe this season, however, which does bother me a little, especially as they only won two home games out of four. However, denying the potency and momentum of Ajax at the moment would be a stupid thing to do and I certainly feel that they’ve got the players and confidence to take the win tonight.
Visitors Juventus travel to Amsterdam on the back of a very edgy win at home to Genoa at weekend which ultimately came from a very suspicious third goal. Nonetheless, a win is a win and Juventus will take heart from that. Well, let’s face it – they have to take heart from it, particularly after the dismissal of Juventus legend Ciro Ferrara recently. Their recent form cannot be ignored, however! Their win against Genoa was their only win in their last six Serie A games, a run which has seen them virtually surrender any hope they had of winning the Scudetto. Juventus haven’t taken anything from their last three away games in all competitions, losing to Chievo Verona, losing at Internazionale, and drawing at Livorno. Call me pessimistic but this really isn’t a good run to be taking to Amsterdam in a game you have to turn up in! Juventus are ageing rather swiftly and a quick side like Ajax could expose that tonight. Juventus only scored one goal on their travels in the Champions League this season before being knocked out and that was against Maccabi Haifa so I’m really not convinced by them.
You could argue that Serie A is a better league than the Eredivisie thus it’s of higher quality football but is that still the case? Serie A football has decreased rapidly in recent years, not necessarily in quality but when married up with other leagues. Italian sides suffer a lot more against sides than they used to so I’d not pay too much heed to that. I genuinely feel that a potent Ajax side could do a lot of damage to Juventus tonight and may even be tempted by a very cheeky -1.75 handicap on the Dutch hosts at 5/1.
Verdict: AFC Ajax Amsterdam to win at 13/8.
Standard de Liege vs Salzburg – away win at 23/10.
I’m oddly confident about this game and I’ve not yet fathomed as to why that is! Standard de Liege are a better side than Salzburg but there’s very little to show that in recent times, which naturally plays a part in it!
Standard de Liege are having a season to forget as they’ve all but surrendered their Eerste Klasse crown already. The departure of manager Bologni in recent times suggests that enough is enough from the Standard de Liege boardroom as they seek to salvge some of the wreckage that is currently their “campaign”. It took Standard eighty-seven minutes last match to break down Westerlo despite the visitors having just ten men for the majority of the game. Standard have basically lost their potency and their defensive ability to boot so they’re generally better to go against than for, particularly in recent times.
Visitors Salzburg have a remarkable Europa League record this season of having won all of their group games. This was remarkable for various reasons. They only conceded once on the road in those three games despite facing tough trips to Villarreal and Lazio, as well as the potentially tricky trip to Levski Sofia. It’s Salzburg’s solid defence that has done them proud and their tactics are usually spot on. This is surprising when you consider that Salzburg were dumped out of the UEFA Champions League this season by back-to-back wins for Maccabi Haifa. All I can presume is that the Austrians have matured and learned from those games! Striker Janko has been one of the most talked about players in Europe due to his prolific record within the Bundesliga which is in no small part down to his large height, which naturally makes him a very useful target man! Janko plays a big part in Salzburg’s success so he’ll be integral tonight.
Salzburg won at SV Ried at weekend, which might not mean much to most people but that’s a bloody hard away game in Austrian football so I respect them for it and it’ll have given them some good momentum ahead of their tough game tonight. I don’t believe Salzburg’s amazing run will continue much longer but I do think they’re capable of beating an unconvincing and problematic Standard de Liege tonight.
Verdict: Salzburg to win at 23/10.
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Anderlecht – home win at 3/4, Bilbao to come from behind and win at 9/1.
Athletic’s probable line-up – Iraizoz, Iraola, Koikili, Amorebieta, Ustaritz, Orbaiz, Martinez, Yeste, Susaeta, Toquero, Llorente.
I’d love to be able to substantiate this bet but I fear that I can’t do it as well as I’d like because I’m largely biased towards Bilbao anyway! I just think Athletic are too good at home for Anderlecht because playing at San Mames is where they draw their strength from by playing their compact and gritty football, a style which even forced Real Madrid into defeat here a few weeks ago. Athletic aren’t a prolific side but their six wins in ten home Primera Liga games should be enough to prove that they’re a reliable home side. They’ve had mixed results at home in Europe this season but have generally delivered by dogged perseverance and the lethal finishing of Fernando Llorente.
Visitors Anderlecht have impressed me massively this season and I actually feel that the bookies have underrated them for this game. I was even partially tempted to lay Athletic at 10/11 because there could be value in that too but I’ve elected to back the home win instead. Anderlecht have proven themselves to be a potent attacking force this season and play a pacey form of attack that Athletic don’t tend to enjoy defending against much. Fortunately for the Basque hosts, visitors Anderlecht don’t enjoy defending too much either so we should see quite a few goals here tonight.
I have a 2-1 scoreline in my head because I think both sides would take that result prior to this game being played. However, there’s the potential for a lot of goals in this game so I’m not calling scorelines! I wouldn’t handicap either side because both are very capable outfits. What I would look at is not just the home win but an Athletic win with Fernando Llorente scoring during the game at 21/10 (very good odds) or even a cheeky punt on Athletic to come from behing to win at 9/1, something that they’ve already done twice in the Europa League this season due to being poor starters. In fact, Athletic have fallen behind in every home Europa League game that they’ve played in this season barring their 3-0 win against Austria Vienna so do give that one some thought – it’s one I really like the look of!
Verdict: Athletic Club de Bilbao to win at 3/4.
Panathinaikos vs AS Roma – away win at 13/10.
I was a tad hesitant about this fixture last week because both sides were on fire but happily Panathinaikos’ domestic result at weekend has made my choice easier.
After an embarassing 2-0 defeat at home against little Kavala at weekend, Panathinaikos’ nightmare trip to PAOK Salonika in the forthcoming weekend suddenly becomes a lot more important. Panathinaikos are just two points clear of Olympiakos Piraeus now and are desperate to end their six year wait for a Super League title. Kavala are not a great side – they’re simply a battling physical side so the defeat for Panathinaikos becomes even more ominous because AS Roma are a physical side too. Panathinaikos are generally very reliable at home but I doubt them tonight because I believe they doubt themselves following the defeat against Kavala and may just be eyeing up their trip to PAOK at weekend with a bit more interest than they are eyeing up this game.
Visitors AS Roma are in the form of their lives, however. It doesn’t matter what competition they’re in – the machine that is AS Roma just keeps rolling onwards. I’ve lost count of how many games they’ve gone unbeaten in all competitions now – something like twenty games! Their momentum is through the roof with nine consecutive wins and those wins have included nightmare trips to Juventus and Fiorentina so it’s not simply a case of Roma playing poor sides or easy games. Ranieri has got the Romans firing on all cylinders on every front so I can’t see how we can possibly overlook them winning this game tonight.
I have one main doubt for this game and that is there because of the age-old rivalry between Greek and Italian sides that tends to incur bloodshed and cards galore. Nonetheless, Roma are the better side and have beaten better sides than Panathinaikos in recent times so why not again tonight?
Verdict: AS Roma to win at 13/10.
Fulham vs Shakhtar Donetsk – away win at 13/8.
This is potentially one of the most interesting games of the night with Fulham being an organised unit of efficiency and Shakhtar being an experienced side with a lot of flair.
Fulham have yet to convince me in the Europa League this season but the fact remains that when they need to do the job, they tend to do it. Roy Hodgson has never shown the greatest of interest in this competition which naturally means he plays weaker sides where possible. If he does that tonight, however, I think you may see Fulham getting swept away. Fulham’s big problem tends to be scoring goals in this competition, particularly at home. They’ve only scored one goal in each of their three home games in the Europa League with two games resulting in rather fortuitous success as they were pushed to the wire both times. Fulham were held to a 1-1 draw by AS Roma at Craven Cottage to it seems that when Fulham come up against classy and/or experienced opponents in this competition then they tend to struggle.
The most alarming statistic above is Fulham’s goals scored. They’re facing an extremely potent Shakhtar Donetsk side that have already scored fourteen goals in their six Europa League games. They reigning champions won their first four games so easily that they automatically qualified for the latter stages. They then took their eye off the competition and thus drew at home to Club Brugge and lost away to Partizan Belgrade. However, a Shakhtar Donetsk side with application is a terrifying side to play. They’ve signed two more Brazilians over summer – the much-sought after Douglas da Costa and Alex Teixeira – which are two very good signings for Shakhtar. Will they play in this game? Probably not, but both are very good alternatives for the Ukrainian side. Shakhtar haven’t replaced centre-back Chygrynskyi since his departure to Barcelona so their defence is still a tad questionable but Fulham’s virtually impotent attack in Europe shouldn’t worry them unduly.
Shakhtar have good experience in this competition, they’ve proven that they can win comfortably away from home against good sides numerous times in this tournament, and they’ve got a very good squad. Fulham are a solid squad that will be tough to break down but I find it hard to see anything but an away win for a flambuoyant Shakhtar Donetsk despite their lack of match practice leading into this game – I think they’ll outclass Fulham tonight.
Verdict: Shakhtar Donetsk to win at 13/8.
Hamburger SV vs PSV Eindhoven – lay Hamburger SV at evens.
I genuinely cannot fathom these odds whatsoever. PSV are ten times more experienced in Europe than Hamburg are! Hamburg’s form has been hit-and-miss both domestically and in Europe which has been largely due to their massive injury list. However, players are returning, numbers have been strengthened, so Hamburg are starting to push again now. They did well to win at VFB Stuttgart at weekened, paricularly as new signing Ruud van Nistelrooy bagged two goals on his debut. I don’t know if he’s eligible to play in this game but it’d be interesting to see him face his old club.
Hamburg’s home form in Europe this year has yet to convince me with a 0-0 draw at home to Celtic showing how easy it can be to keep Hamburg out. Hamburg beat Hapoel Tel-Aviv 4-2, a result which flattered them, and then overcome Rapid Vienna 2-0. Hamburg have a very real test tonight against a good and well-organised side, a side that I don’t think they’re capable of breaking down consistently and successfully.
Visitors PSV Eindhoven are experienced in European football because they’ve been in European football since…well, probably the dawn of time! Dutch giants PSV have impressed me massively in the Eredivisie this season with composed and organised displays that mean they concede very few goals indeed. They’ve not been great in Europe this season with some unconvincing performances and results. However, they’re unbeaten in this competition currently and they’ve been playing good football consistently for some time now so I can’t see them stumbling here against a side that they’re perfectly capable of matching.
Verdict: Lay Hamburger SV at evens.
Alianza Lima vs Estudiantes De La Plata – away win at 10/11.
You’ll not see me go for an away win in the Copa Libertadores very often but this is one of those occasions – make the most of it!
Alianza Lima are from Peru, which is one of the harder places to travel to. However, as far as quality goes, they’re somewhat lacking. They lost away to Leon de Huanuco in the league lately without even scoring, which is a dismal result, to be frank! They may have won at Bolivar La Paz in their opening game of the Copa Libertadores but that’s purely because Bolivian sides are the worst on the continent. If you go back a few years to the last time that Alianza Lima were in this competition then you’ll see that Alianza Lima lost all of their six games. Times have changed but they’ve not improved that much! Alianza Lima will have some advantage from a geographical perspective but they’re not half as good as their opponents and should really struggle tonight.
Reigning champions Estudiantes De La Plata won this tournament last year by being ruthlessly efficient. In essence, what that means is winning away from home. Estudiantes haven’t lost in their last five away games in the Copa Libertadores despite travelling to unfavouable locations such as Brazil, Paraguay, and even Peru. In fact, the most impressive of all was their win at Club Nacional de Montevideo in Uruguay. This wasn’t because of geography but rather the phenomenal home record of Club Nacional de Montevideo in this tournament. Estudiantes effectively mastered what they needed to to become a success in this competition and they’ve still got that capability now. The travel shouldn’t affect them too much because they rested a lot of players for their trip to Independiente lately. Estudiantes have a good level of experience in this competition so they know how to approach this game. They’ve been to the tough locations before, they know what it’s all about. Estudiantes have a much better class of players than Alianza Lima and I do expect it to show rather a lot tonight, particularly as Estudiantes are looking as potent as ever. In fact, if you feel bold, I’d even suggest taking the -1.75 goal handicap for Estudiantes 11/4.
Verdict: Estudiantes De La Plata to win at 10/11.
For more free football betting tips visit thefootytipster.com!
Liverpool, Villarreal, and AS Roma at 5/1.
FC Honka Espoo, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, and Athletic Club de Bilbao at 6/1.
Universidad de Chile, Independiente Medellin, and Estudiantes De La Plata at 5/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Europa League:
Rubin Kazan vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv (8) 2-1
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Juventus (7) 1-0
Club Brugge vs Valencia CF (5) 2-2
Villarreal vs VFL Wolfsburg (8) 2-0
Standard de Liege vs Salzburg (5) 0-1
Twente Enschede vs Werder Bremen (7) 1-1
LOSC Lille vs Fenerbahce (8) 2-1
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Anderlecht (7) over 2.5 goals
FC Copenhagen vs Olympique de Marseille (5) 1-1
Panathinaikos vs AS Roma (7) 0-1
Atletico Madrid vs Galatasaray (7) over 2.5 goals
Fulham vs Shakhtar Donetsk (6) 1-2
Liverpool vs Unirea Urziceni (8) under 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV vs PSV Eindhoven (5) 1-1
Hertha BSC Berlin vs SL Benfica (6) 0-0
Copa Libertadores:
Universidad de Chile vs Caracas (8) 2-0
Alianza Lima vs Estudiantes De La Plata (6) 1-2
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory vs Sydney FC (6) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Cali (8) 1-0
Finnish Liiga Cup:
FC Honka Espoo vs FC Lahti (8) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Woodlands Wellington vs Beijing Guoan (7) 2-1
Spanish Segunda B:
Toledo vs Real Oviedo (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!