SL Benfica vs Otelul
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Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA Champions League game in Portugal between SL Benfica and Romanian champions Otelul Galati.
So – we all know Benfica is the better side here. That’s the easy part! The hard part is to decide as to whether that will show in tonight’s game or not.
Benfica have done well in this group, hence them currently being top of it and being likely to remain there after tonight’s round of fixtures. However, my big crib with them is that compared to the chances they create, this side simply does not score enough goals. They usually do create a lot of chances but they’re so wasteful in front of goal that it’s unreal. The return of Paraguayan giant Cardozo may improve that for them tonight but with the likes of Aimar and Gaitan likely to be rested due to yellow cards (as per boss Jorge Jesus’ interview) it’s hard to see him having an excessive amount of chances. Benfica still have the offensive power to win this game and I do think that they will but they wasted chances in Bucharest in the reversal of this fixture and I think they’ll do that again tonight.
One thing we’ve learned about Otelul Galati is that they lie down for nobody. Basel have beaten them twice and have been ran close in both games. Manchester United have beaten them twice and deserved to beat them on neither occasion. Benfica beat Otelul Galati but found their defensive style hard to break down and squandered the chances that they did create. A result here is worthy of a place in the Otelul history books so I do expect them to be motivated against one of the biggest sides in Europe. Swiss side Basel claimed an unlikely point here and with nothing for the hosts to play for, why not minnows Otelul too? They’re well-organised enough to frustrate Benfica into a stalemate here, in my view. I don’t know if they will or not but we’ve never seen Otelul destroyed in any group game this season and unless Benfica really turn it on then I think that I’ll still have that opinion at the end of the evening.
For me, the price on this game under 3 goals is a bit of a steal. I don’t rate the chances of Benfica going to town on Otelul very highly, as capable as they are – they just don’t have the motivation nor the creativity without their influential Argentinian midfielders. Otelul will play for pride here and I think they’ll do themselves proud. I’d avoid handicaps but under 3 goals appeals to me here.
Verdict: Under 3 goals at evens.
Wednesday’s Picks
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
Manchester City vs Bayern Munich (5) 1-1
Villarreal CF vs SSC Napoli (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
LOSC Lille vs Trabzonspor (7) 1-0
Internazionale vs CSKA Moscow (3) 1-1
Basel vs Manchester United (7) over 2.5 goals
SL Benfica vs Otelul Galati (8) 1-0
Dinamo Zagreb vs Olympique Lyonnais (7) 0-2
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Real Madrid (7) 0-2
Argentinian Primera Division:
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Independiente (6) 1-1
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Boca Juniors (7) 0-1
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Colon de Santa Fe (6) 2-1
Tigre vs Velez Sarsfield (5) 0-0
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC vs Perth Glory (5) 1-1
English Championship:
Hull City vs Birmingham City (5)
Greek Super League:
Doxa Dramas vs OFI Crete (6) 0-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
Excelsior Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar (8) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Primera Liga:
Granada vs Real Mallorca (7) 1-0
Turkish Super Lig:
Karabukspor vs Gaziantepspor (5) 1-1
Eskisehirspor vs Antalyaspor (6) 1-0
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Enjoy your free betting tips!