Dinamo Zagreb vs Neftchi
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Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA Champions League Qualifier between Dinamo Zagreb and Neftchi in Croatia.
For me, Dinamo are very short to win this game. They have a lot of money behind them and they’re easily the best side in Croatia but what I tend to find with them is that they rely on just one or two players to carry them in games. In Croatia, that’s not a problem due to the general quality gap. In Europe, it can be a problem because sides like Neftchi are better than they’re expected to be, in my view. Subsequently, Dinamo fail to score a lot of goals on a consistent basis. You may recall that they somewhat surprisingly crashed out of Europe last season against Moldovan giants Sheriff Tiraspol because of the same reason – not scoring goals. Their most recent “hero” was Brazilian midfielder Sammir but they usually have one or two per season.
I do expect Dinamo to win this one tonight – they are the better side here, after all, not to mention more experienced. However, I’d be really surprised to see a vicious pounding for the Azeri visitors here. They’ll come and sit deep and boy do Dinamo hate it! Additionally, Dinamo’s support is a bit funny – they only seem to come out when it’s not raining! If it’s raining, chances are that it’ll be quiet in Croatia!
Seriously though – I just expect the Azeris to do what anyone else would in their place – work hard and defend deep. Dinamo don’t have as much penetration for that as they probably should and although I see them winning the game, I think under 3 goals at 4/5 is priced rather generously today.
Verdict: Under 3 goals at 4/5.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Sturm Graz vs Fehervar – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Hungarian champions Fehervar looked pretty good during their 0-1 win in the Hungarian Super Cup against Kecskemeti TE. Obviously this is a bigger stage and a much harder opponent but they played some quick tempo football under Paulo Sousa and looked better for it. The fact that they kept hold of Alves in the summer is a big boost for them because he can produce goals from anywhere, just as he did to win them their last match. Fehervar are easily the best ide in Hungary right now and I think they could trouble Sturm Graz today. That said, the hosts are the better side with much more experience in European football. My problem with Strum Graz is that they tend to concede stupid goals although they’re not short offensively. For me, over 2.5 goals at 4/5 is a winner here – the Hungarians can score here but I doubt their defence – which has two new full-backs following summer departures for their previous full-backs – can keep the Austrians at bay here. For me, over 2.5 goals is a good call here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Linfield vs BATE Borisov – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
BATE Borisov are efficient and experienced enough to win this one whilst dominating, which is what I expect them to do, ultimately. They are the better side here, that’s for sure. However, although they can roll along quite happily in the Vysshaya Liga without star striker Rodionov, I doubt that will carry over into their European games. BATE are more than good enough to keep the ball for the vast majority of this game but without Rodionov, I don’t see where floods of goals come from. I’ve maintained for a while that Irish and Northern Irish sides are amongst the most resilient in Europe – they’re well-organised, stubborn, and very tenacious. Check the results for clubs from both countries in Europe over the past few years and you’ll see what I mean – I certainly wouldn’t handicap against them unless they played someone very good, that’s for sure. However, in this defensive and well-marshalled approach, they rarely threaten themselves and I doubt they’ll have enough to trouble BATE Borisov. The Belarusians have kept out much better sides than Linfield in the last few years and I’m sure they can keep them out tonight. For me, this has 0-0 or 0-1 all over it, the latter being the more likely of the two, in my opinion. Either way, under 2.5 goals appeals to me at 9/10.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Rosenborg BK, Maccabi Haifa, Partizan Belgrade.
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today guys, sorry!
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa America:
Paraguay vs Venezuela (7) 1-0Brazil vs Ecuador (5) 2-1
UEFA Champions League:
Zestafoni vs Dacia Chisinau (5) 0-0
Maccabi Haifa vs Borac Banja Luka (8) 2-0
Malmo FF vs HB Torshavn (9) -1.5 handicap
Bangor City vs HJK Helsinki (6) 1-2
Skenderbeu Korce vs APOEL Nicosia (5) 0-0
Dinamo Zagreb vs Neftchi (7) 1-0
Sturm Graz vs Fehervar (6) 2-1
Skonto Riga vs Wisla Krakow (4) 1-1
Partizan Belgrade vs Skendija 79 (8) 2-0
Rosenborg BK vs Breidablik Kopavogur (8) 2-0
Linfield vs BATE Borisov (7) 0-1
International Friendlies:
Syria vs Oman (6) 1-0
Kuwait vs Iraq (5) 0-0
Jordan vs Saudi Arabia (5) 1-1
Japanese J-League:
Nagoya Grampus vs Kashima Antlers (6) 2-1
Kashiwa Reysol vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (7) 1-0
Yokohama F.Marinos vs Montedio Yamagata (7) 2-1
Cerezo Osaka vs Jubilo Iwata (4) 0-0
Avispa Fukuoka vs Omiya Ardija (4) 1-2
Urawa Red Diamonds vs Kawasaki Frontale (5) 0-1
Gamba Osaka vs Vissel Kobe (7) 1-0
Vegalta Sendai vs Shimizu S-Pulse (5) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Armed Forces vs Albirex Niigata (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!