Republic of Ireland vs Croatia
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As usual guys, be careful when betting on international games – more shocks occur in these games than any other competition, in my experience, so be smart with your stakes if you’re getting involved.
Today’s secondary featured game is the friendly in Ireland between Republic of Ireland and Croatia.
I don’t like going against Irish sides at home because I genuinely believe that they’re the most tenacious sides in Europe, both internationally and at club level. However, I will do it on occasion when I feel that they’ll be outclassed by their opponents and this is one of those games, in my view.
Ireland have good players; we all know that. They’re largely at full-strength too, unfortunately, with the likes of Given, Keane, O’Shea, Dunne, Duff, and McGeady all in the squad for this game. Promising McCarthy and Gibson are also in their ranks too so they do have options in their team if they want to adopt a more experimental approach. However, Ireland’s problem has long been finding the net ’cause only Keane does it regularly. If Keane shows up here then we may well see Ireland ruin this bet but will he? That’s the big question.
I look at Croatia’s team and I find more firepower and creativity than I do in the Irish team – that’s where this bet stems from. Any midfield boasting Perisic, Vukojevic, Kranjcar, and Modric can break through defences and score goals, simply put. The absence of Rangers striker Jelavic isn’t a huge problem as Petric, Eduardo, Mandzukic, and Kalinic are all adept at putting the ball in the net at this level. Hell, even workhorse Olic can find the net! It’s a shame Rakitic isn’t in the team but this Croatian side has enough firepower to win the game. Corluka’s back after a lengthy absence to help Simunic and Srna in schooling Strinic and that should be strong enough to keep Ireland out.
Both sides have very good managers so we may see a very tactical game here. However, I can’t see Croatia losing with so much attacking power and it has been pointed out to me that it’s not for no reason that Croatia are tenth in FIFA’s World Rankings. I don’t like those rankings but they do show which teams have accrued the most points based on games won etc. and Croatia do win a lot of friendlies, hence their positioning. For me, taking Croatia with draw no bet at 4/5 is a good bet today.
Verdict: Croatia to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Northern Ireland vs Faroe Islands – away win with +1.5 handicap at evens.
This is the only qualifier of the day so approach with some caution.
I return to the trip that Northern Ireland made to the Faroe Islands in the reversal of this fixture when Holst’s goal claimed an invaluable three points for the Scandinavians. It aided me in my point that Faroese football really is improving as they more than matched a rather lacklustre and quiet Northern Ireland side. I’m not making the point that they can match Northern Ireland player for player; far from it. However, as a unit, they’re a tough nut to crack.
Let’s face it – this isn’t Northern Ireland’s best generation of players. They struggle to find the net nowadays, as well as struggling to replace experienced Maik Taylor in goal. No McCartney or Craigan at the back lessens their defensice reliance and experience, as does the continued absence of Lafferty up front. There are still good players in this team but they’re rather scarce and subsequently I have to wonder why Northern Ireland are 1/5 to win this game.
Faroe Islands have brought a good squad to Northern Ireland for this game with only defender Justinussen being what I would call a big absence as he is suspended. Newcastle United attacker Edmundsson and regular centre-back Davidsen return to the squad after suspension, however, so it’s not all doom and gloom as both are useful players. Simun Samuelsen’s injury has ruled him out of this game, however, and the loss of his pace is a blow to Faroese counter-attacks. Gunnar Nielsen’s continued absence means ancient Mikkelsen retains the number one jersey but that’s a good thing, to be honest – Mikkelsen is still the best goalkeeper in the Faroe Islands, even at 41! The Faroese side has some talented players too, let’s not forget. Rogvi Poulsen and captain Benjaminsen from HB Torshavn are very good midfielders. Holst knows how to find the net, Suni Olsen has a sweet left foot, and Elttor is quick although his finishing is still wayward most of the time. Danielsen, Gregersen, and Davidsen though – three good centre-backs there. The Faroese are struggling in the full-back areas but this is a good team, even without Jacobsen.
For me, this is a very tight game. Let’s not forget that almost all of the Faroese players are playing in leagues that are mid-season whereas the Northern Ireland players are the complete opposite. Advantage goes to the hosts that this game is played on natural turf but I still think there’s value in giving the feisty and underestimated Scandinavians a +1.5 goal head start at evens here.
Verdict: Faroe Islands to win with a +1.5 goal head start at evens.
Poland vs Georgia – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Eh, there’s not much you can write about this. They’re both “friends” and are on good terms so don’t expect much in the way of action here. Ketsbaia’s sides are always defensive and unadventurous so I expect more of the same from Georgia today as they’ve demonstrated a great deal of improvement since they adopted that style. They miss star striker Iashvili today though – I don’t see them scoring without him unless it’s a set piece. Most of their team is still entact though – Kobiashvili, Khizanishvili, Kaladze etcc. It’s a good side for frustrating other sides. Poland are mostly at full-strength too but I find them frustrating in that they’ll fail to score against weak sides but then will do something outrageous like scoring three times against Brazil, for example! They do have capable players in their side and should win this game but I’ve said that about other sides against this feisty Georgian team and they’ve almost always been felled by the ex-Soviet state. Rather than enter the hazardous 1×2 market here, I’m opting to go under 2.5 goals at decent odds of 3/4 as I see no motivation between two friendly sides with little consistency when it comes to scoring goals.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Slovenia vs Belgium – home win at 7/5.
For me, Belgium are rather overrated. I like the potential of their team an awful lot but that doesn’t mean that they’re stars yet, which is something that a lot of people tend to forget.
I mean, Hazard, Lukaku, Ogunjimi, Defour, Witsel, Vossen, Vleminckx etc. are all very promising players and I’m sure that they’ll steer Belgium into a new golden era in due course, such is their ability. However, they’ve got no more than a handful of caps between them and that inexperience usually shows in front of goal. Belgium’s defence is generally sloppy and concedes stupid goals so I think we’ll see Slovenia score at least once here. Will Belgium show up though? There’s always a danger of it with their potential but I can’t see it emerging against a very solid and dependable Slovenian team. Additionally, they need someone to create chances here because there’s no Hazard and no Defour so the pressure is heavily on Witsel to help out. Miralles and Dembele also miss out, which are further attacking blows for the Belgian team. I think Slovenia can take advantage of Belgium here. They’re always strong at home and have strong players in their team ala Ljubljankic, Birsa, Koren etc. They do lack firepower sometimes but God help you if they score against you because their defending is usually top-notch with Cesar holding things together. Suler’s absence might be a problem but Slovenia are usually very solid at the back so I’ll take a chance here.
For me, this is something like men versus boys. The visitors have very good individuals with a lot of potential but poor cohesion whereas the hosts would die for one another without being especially brilliant. In these circumstances, I’d be tempted to take the home win at 7/5 for a side that regularly shows up against a side that sporadically does so the home win is my call here.
Verdict: Slovenia to win at 7/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Czech Republic U21, Romania, Portugal.
Recommended bets:
Croatia DNB, Czech Republic U21 -1.5, and Romania -1.5 at over evens.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA European Championship Qualifier:
Northern Ireland vs Faroe Islands (5) 1-0
International Friendlies:
Gambia vs Congo DR (6) 2-1
Gabon vs Guinea (5) 1-1
Botswana vs Kenya (7) 1-0
Equatorial Guinea vs Guinea-Bissau (4) 0-1
Zimbabwe vs Zambia (6) 1-1
Senegal vs Morocco (6) 0-0
South Africa vs Burkina Faso (5) 2-1
Sudan vs Ethiopia (7) 1-0
Liberia vs Angola (4) 1-2
Mozambique vs Malawi (6) 1-0
Tunisia vs Mali (5) 1-1
Japan vs South Korea (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Oman vs Bahrain (7) 1-0
Qatar vs Iraq (6) 0-0
China vs Jamaica (6) 2-1
Kazakhstan vs Syria (7) 2-0
Russia vs Serbia (6) 1-1
Azerbaijan vs Republic of Macedonia (5) 1-1
Lithuania vs Armenia (4) 1-2
Latvia vs Finland (5) 0-1
Norway vs Czech Republic (6) 1-0
Cyprus vs Moldova (6) 1-1
Belarus vs Bulgaria (6) 1-0
Hungary vs Iceland (7) 2-1
France vs Chile (7) 2-0
Ukraine vs Sweden (7) 0-0
Albania vs Montenegro (6) 0-0
Ivory Coast vs Israel (5) 2-2 (played in Switzerland)
Liechtenstein vs Switzerland (7) 0-2
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Greece (6) 2-1
San Marino vs Romania (8) 0-2
Poland vs Georgia (5) 1-0
Austria vs Slovakia (6) 1-1
Turkey vs Estonia (5) 2-1
Malta vs Central African Republic (7) 1-0
Germany vs Brazil (5) 2-1
Italy vs Spain (6) 1-2
Scotland vs Denmark (6) 1-1
Slovenia vs Belgium (6) 1-0
Wales vs Australia (5) 0-1
Republic of Ireland vs Croatia (6) 1-2
Kuwait vs North Korea (5) 1-1
Portugal vs Luxembourg (8) 2-0
Honduras vs Venezuela (5) 0-1 (played in USA)
Costa Rica vs Ecuador (6) 1-1
Bolivia vs Panama (7) 2-0
USA vs Mexico (6) 1-1
UEFA European U21 Championship:
Northern Ireland vs Faroe Islands (5) 2-1
Czech Republic vs Andorra (9) -1.5 handicap
Finland vs Slovenia (6) 2-1
Greece vs Belarus (4) 1-1
International U21 Friendlies:
Moldova vs Georgia (5) 1-1
Montenegro vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (4) 0-1
Sweden vs Netherlands (5) 1-1
Recopa Sudamericana:
Independiente vs Internacional (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Copa Sudamericana:
Ceara vs Sao Paulo (6) 1-2
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense (7) 2-1
Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo (6) 2-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Santos vs Corinthians (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!