Westerlo vs Racing Genk
FreeBefore I begin today’s post, I’d like to express my commiserations to Real Madrid midfielder Ruben De La Red, who has been forced into premature retirement due to a heart problem. Spanish football has had various issues in the last few years where players have actually died playing football and it’s a shame to see a promising midfielder like De La Red forced to hang up his boots. Real Madrid have generously offered him a coaching role, however, so his career within football can at least continue and all the best to him!
Today’s featured game is the Eerste Klasse encounter between Westerlo and Racing Genk. Westerlo have earned a reputation over the years of being hard to beat but that lessens with each passing year as their lack of quality becomes more and more apparent. However, visitors Racing Genk are in the form of their lives so we should really see a fairly dominant away display here from the league leaders.
I’m still not going to underestimate Westerlo for this game, however. Westerlo still aren’t a pushover despite their league placing. Westerlo aren’t a side that believes in the “beautiful game” as most of their games are low-scoring and generally somewhat uninteresting, particularly at home. They’re a largely defensive unit, which is strange as they do possess some very talented and/or quick attackers i.e. Iakovenko, Chavez, Liliu, and Paulo Henrique to name a few. Westerlo are a capable side but they rarely show it, which is unfortunate as I rather like them, to be honest! Not solely for that reason should they be taken seriously, however – consider that the only side to beat them in their last five consecutive games in all competitions is Anderlecht and you’ll see that they bring quite a lot of momentum into this game, especially as they’ve won three of those games. Westerlo have only lost three times in seven home games, which isn’t a terrible record for a decent home side. However, the important factor in my eyes is who they’ve lost to – AA Gent, Standard de Liege, and Anderlecht respectively – three of the top six sides in Belgian football – so it’s easy to see the point where Westerlo begin to struggle nowadays.
Unfortunately for Westerlo, Racing Genk are in that top six bracket nowadays, in my opinion. It’s not entirely down to star striker Jelle Vossen coming of age but that certainly does play a large part in it. As if the fact that Genk are in the form of their lives wasn’t enough already, however – Westerlo have to also live with the knowledge that Genk have won their last two trips here consecutively without even conceding. Genk’s football is free-flowing enough for Westerlo to score against them tonight but the only way to stop Genk at the moment is to outscore them – can Westerlo do that? I seriously doubt it, especially as the only side to do so this season in the Eerste Klasse was Anderlecht last match. Genk have also lost to Kortrijk but an abject display without even scoring a goal is not something I classify as a Genk display although two defeats on the road in a row does concern me a little ahead of this game. Nonetheless, Genk remain the better of these two sides and although their form cannot last forever, they’re still playing well enough for it to last for now. I think Genk’s all-out-attack football will suit defensive Westerlo to a degree but I also think that Genk will break through the Westerlo ranks in this game and if that happens then I don’t see a way back for the hosts.
The odds of 9/10 on this selection aren’t great but having seen some odds on Genk of late, I think they’re quite acceptable. Westerlo are stubborn enough to give Genk a tough game here but it should only take a single goal for Genk to put Westerlo out of sight because if the hosts attack, they are weak in defence and concede more. Genk are very good in front of goal as the fact that they average scoring nearly three goals per game illustrates well. Their away record isn’t great but they should simply score too many goals for Westerlo to compete tonight. I’d leave the game if the odds nose-dive but for me, Genk to win this game at 9/10 is decent value today.
Verdict: Racing Genk to win at 9/10.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Slavia Prague vs Jablonec – both sides to score at 4/5.
I’ve mentioned in the adequacies of Slavia Prague in previous posts and their recent burst of momentum hasn’t changed my mind about them. Slavia still have big problems in scoring goals and with defending, which is naturally two massive handicaps for a supposed giant of Gambrinus Liga football. Slavia’s displays of late have actually been decent, to their credit, and as a result they’re unbeaten in five consecutive games – very commendable. However, let’s consider that during that run they’ve faced four shit sides (Usti nad Labem twice) and have only won two of the games – then the run looks a tad more morose than initially perceived. What has to concern Slavia is that despite their inferior opponents in each game, they’ve still conceded in four out of those five games and when your side doesn’t score many because your only decent striker (Vicek) is little more than a brute, you find yourselves not winning games as a result. Indeed, Slavia have only won three out of seven home games in all competitions this season and have conceded in five out of those seven games with the only two games containing Slavia clean sheets unsurprisingly comprising the majority of Slavia’s home wins. I partially wonder if Slavia’s recent form will make them cocky for this game and if it does then they’re in for a rude awakening against what I can only describe as a superior Jablonec side.
However, Jablonec have really struggled on the road this season and I just can’t pinpoint why that is. They’re a top four side in the Gambrinus Liga nowadays, in my humble opinion, although their displays can be a tad workmanlike at times instead of classy. Nonetheless, Jablonec boast a frightening threat with Tomas Pekhart in attack and that should never be underestimated – he’s a damn good striker on his day. I don’t quite believe Jablonec’s record of four defeats in six away games this season because they’re a much better side than that and I frankly think that pricing them at 2/1 to win this game is a joke, irrespective of their away form. Nonetheless, I’ll heed the warning with their form and avoid the away win, tempting as it is and despite the fact that Jablonec won here 0-3 last season.
My focus is on the goals front. Slavia Prague can’t defend anywhere and Jablonec can’t defend away from home so we have the foundation for goals to be scored here. Slavia Prague usually steal a token goal at home and Jablonec have scored in eight out of nine away games in all competitions this season so I expect them both to score here. I’m ironically more concerned about Slavia scoring here than their seemingly unproductive visitors as I at least know there is more to come from Jablonec – with Slavia, who knows? Nonetheless, I like both sides to score here a bit more than the away win with draw no bet so that’s my call here.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Triestina vs Atalanta Bergamo – away win at 23/20.
I can’t substantiate this tip as much as I’d like because it’s predominantly based on actual ability. Atalanta are simply a lot better than Triestina, to be blunt. Triestina did well at the start of this Serie B campaign but they’ve not continued it because they’re not a good side! They should have been relegated last season but were allowed to buy Ancona’s license to stay in the division. They prepared for another long season by signing…nobody to help them beat the drop! Their true colours are finally showing through and although their home record this season is impressive, I think they’ll get taught a lesson tonight. Triestina haven’t scored in four out of their last five games and they’ve lost three of those games in a row now so times are hard here for the hosts. I don’t doubt that Atalanta’s defence are capable of shipping goals against their inferior hosts but Triestina have shipped nine goals in three games themeselves and if they think they can outscore Atalanta then I think they’re mistaken. Atalanta’s away record this season isn’t convincing but to say they’re anything but one of the top sides in Serie B is a lie. Atalanta should be confident after drubbing a very good and well-organised Padova side 4-1 and let’s face it – Atalanta’s business is scoring goals. They’ve never been a good side defensively and that hasn’t changed in this campaign. If they face a side that doesn’t score many goals, however, then you have to fancy them because Atalanta usually bring at least one or two goals to game and I think that’ll be the case tonight. I can’t elaborate any further on this bet; I just feel Atalanta are far too good to have odds of 23/20 against them for the away win here.
Verdict: Atalanta Bergamo to win at 23/20.
Eindhoven vs Zwolle – away win at 5/4.
These odds are surely too reflective of Eindhoven’s surprise start to the season? Eindhoven are still a mid-table side at best! They play well at home and I doubt I’ll ever see a more enthusiastic home side in the Eerste Divisie than Eindhoven but they’re not a quality side at all! They sometimes score goals for fun, it’s true, but they simply cannot defend and it tends to show against good sides. Now that Eindhoven’s true colours are beginning to shine through following just one win in five games, I think a lesson may be in order from one of the giants of the division – Zwolle. Zwolle were a tad dormant last season but they’ve leapt out of the stalls this season and currently lead the Eerste Divisie table following eight wins in eleven games. They’ve already won four out of six on the road with an average of nearly three goals scored per game and with three consecutive wins leading them into this encounter, you have to fancy them to do well in this game. Eindhoven aren’t an easy side to face here, don’t get me wrong – they can really get under the skin of their opponents by working hard and taking their chances – but to put them even remotely close to Zwolle in the quality chart as the bookies appear to have done here looks a mistake to me. Zwolle are simply a better side and I think they should be no longer than evens to win this game so 5/4 looks decent value to me, especially having won three out of their last four visits to face their unpredictable hosts!
Verdict: Zwolle to win at 5/4.
Gaz Metan Medias vs Gloria Bistrita – home win to nil at 3/2.
This game carries quite a lot of risk because Gloria Bistrita have been attacking well since appointing a new manager although their goals tally rarely shows it. However, the reason I’m going against the visitors here is not only because they’re consistently poor travellers each year but also because star striker Moraes misses this game. As if Gloria Bistrita didn’t have enough problems scoring goals already! However, the absence of Moraes versus a very able defensive unit known as Gaz Metan Medias says to me that we won’t see any away goals in this game. Bistrita tend to score a token goal on the road but still lose heavily hence their record of five defeats in six away games this season, conceding over two goals per game on average. Of course, the risk in this game is not only that Gloria won’t continue their burst of momentum but also that the hosts will score. Gaz Metan are not a prolific side whatsoever – they rely far too much on set pieces specialist Eric – but they’re still well-organised enough to score against one of the worst away defences in the division so I think it’s worth the chance today. Let’s face it – the odds on the home win are too short in essence so it makes sense to take Gaz Metan to win to nil rather than the outright win because the hosts are defensive moguls; if they get a goal, they’ll sit on it and few sides do that better than they do. The risk of the home win is still present but I’m fairly confident that if Gaz Metan win this game then it will be to nil as no Moraes = no attack for Gloria Bistrita.
So yeah – this is a risky bet, especially as head-to-heads between these two outfits go against me heavily! Nonetheless, I like the odds on this selection as Gaz Metan love to win boring games by narrow scorelines (they’re like a more average Otelul Galati side to me although Otelul Galati aren’t a particularly good side, to be fair!) and although Bistrita are playing well, they’re well-placed to draw a blank against a stubborn defence. All in all, I think the odds on this selection are slightly generous so the fairly bold call of Gaz Metan to win to nil in this game is my selection for this game at 3/2.
Verdict: Gaz Metan Medias to win to nil at 3/2.
Accumulator fodder:
Admira Wacker, Reggina.
Recommended bets:
Reggina and Atalanta Bergamo at 2/1.
Admira Wacker and Racing Genk at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Club Olimpo vs Huracan (4) 1-0
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Atletico Lanus (7) 2-1
Australian A-League:
North Queensland Fury vs Central Coast Mariners (6) under 2.5 goals
Austrian Liga 1:
St.Polten vs SCR Altach (6) both sides to score
Admira Wacker vs WAC/St.Andra (8) over 2.5 goals
Hartberg vs Grodig (5) over 2.5 goals
Gratkorn vs First Vienna (6) under 2.5 goals
Lustenau vs Austria Lustenau (5) at least one red card in this game
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Westerlo vs Racing Genk (7) over 2.5 goals
Chilean Primera Division:
Audax Italiano vs Universidad de Concepcion (7) over 2.5 goals
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slavia Prague vs Jablonec (4) draw no bet, both sides to score
Danish 1st Division:
Vestjaelland vs HB Koge (5) both sides to score
Viborg vs Fyn (6) under 2.5 goals
Hjorring vs Hobro (6) over 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Emelec Guayaquil vs El Nacional Quito (6) 1-0
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Dijon FCO (6) under 2.5 goals
Chateauroux vs Grenoble Foot (4)
Evian Thonan Gaillard vs Le Havre (5) under 2.5 goals
Stade Lavallois vs Sedan-Ardennes (7) under 2.5 goals
Metz vs Le Mans (6) under 2.5 goals
Nantes vs Nimes (5) under 2.5 goals
Reims vs Angers SCO (5)
Troyes vs Istres (6)
Vannes OC vs Clermont Foot (5) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga:
Schalke 04 vs St.Pauli (5) 1-0
German Bundesliga 2:
VfL Bochum vs FSV Frankfurt (5)
Erzebirge Aue vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (6)
Ingolstadt vs Energie Cottbus (6) over 2.5 goals
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Kecskemeti TE vs Ujpest (5) under 2.5 goals
Budapest Honved vs Gyori ETO FC (6) 1-1
Italian Serie B:
Reggina vs Portosummaga (8)
Triestina vs Atalanta Bergamo (6)
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs Toluca (6) under 2.5 goals
Dutch Eredivisie:
Willem II vs VVV Venlo (5) 1-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
RBC Roosendaal vs Den Bosch (5) over 2.5 goals
Dordrecht ’90 vs MVV Maastricht (6)
Veendam vs RKC Waalwijk (5) over 2.5 goals
Almere City vs Telstar (6)
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Emmen (6) over 2.5 goals
Go Ahead Eagles vs Fortuna Sittard (7)
Volendam vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (6) both sides to score
Eindhoven vs Zwolle (6) over 2.5 goals
Sparta Rotterdam vs Helmond Sport (6) over 2.5 goals
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Guarani Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Peruvian Primera Division:
Universitario Lima vs Inti Gas (7) 2-0
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Krakow (4) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Zaglebie Lubin vs Widzew Lodz (6) 1-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Vitoria Setubal vs Rio Ave (6) 1-0
Romanian Liga:
Gaz Metan Medias vs Gloria Bistrita (6) 1-0
Universitatea Craiova vs Otelul Galati (5) 1-1
Russian Premier League:
Spartak Nalchik vs Saturn Moscow Oblast (6) 1-0
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Dukla Banska Bystrica vs Slovan Bratislava (5) 2-2
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Elche vs Las Palmas (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Kayserispor vs Genclerbirligi (7) over 2.5 goals
Ukrainian Premier League:
Vorskla Poltava vs Volyn Lutsk (6) under 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!