Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Ekstraklasa encounter between Zaglebie Lubin and Slask Wroclaw. To give you an indication of how close the Ekstraklasa is this season – there are four points seperating these two sides and one is battling against relegation whilst the other is fighting for a European place! Crazy shit, eh?
Hosts Zaglebie Lubin have shown an awful lot of resilience lately and for that they deserve credit. They’ve smashed in nine goals in five games and have only lost once as a result. They’ve intriguingly claimed three successive 2-2 away draws, one of which was a trip to face giants Legia Warsaw, so they’re absolutely a dangerous side when they want to be. Their biggest problem is not scoring enough goals but now that they’ve started doing so, they simply don’t look like stopping. Their home games haven’t gone over 2.5 goals lately, it has to be said. However, they have been facing sides that don’t often go over 2.5 goals anyway so it’s no great surprise. Confidence is high following their win at home to sleeping giants Lech Poznan and this well-gelled unit appears ready to lay siege unto the whole of the Ekstraklasa, which is somewhat refreshing to see.
However, they’ve got a mammoth of a task to beat Lenczyk’s army of Slask Wroclaw. I don’t think there’s a better man-motivator in the Ekstraklasa than this manager – barring perhaps Zielinski – and their displays have shown it since returning from the winter break. Striker Gikiewicz misses out today but with Diaz back in their ranks, I’m not too concerned, although the absence of leader Kazmierczak would normally put me off if Slask faced an unbeatable team. However, Zaglebie aren’t an unbeatable team at all – they’re playing well and scoring goals but they’re not unbreakable and with Slask in their “untouchable” mode right now, I think we’re in for a really good game here. They’ve gone over 2.5 goals in two out of their last three away games and have scored a minimum of a goal per away game for every away game since returning from the winter break and considering that the four sides they’ve faced are Jagiellonia Bialystok, Legia Warsaw, Lech Poznan, and Polonia Warsaw, I think it’s time to become impressed! They’re a good goalscoring side from all angles, Slask – they only need to tighten up their defence to become a force although that sadly looks beyond them this season.
However, I think there’s a good case for over 2.5 goals here. Both sides are in a position whereby they need points and both sides can be vulnerable when attacked correctly. Contrary to the statistics shown in the Ekstraklasa table, I think we’ll see an over 2.5 goals game here. You can see why it’s priced as long as 6/5 based on statistics alone but based on performances and goal threat, I think there’s value in over 2.5 goals today.
Team news – Slask Wroclaw miss Kazmierczak and Gikiewicz.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Viikingit Helsinki vs KooTeePee Kotka – home win at evens.
I can’t really substantiate this any more than to say that Viikingit are a better side than KooTeePee, for me. KooTeePee focus on defending because that’s generally all they’re good at. They’re not a goalscoring side and never have been, even when they were in the Veikkausliiga in the not-too-distant past. They’re a tough cookie to actually break through from time to time but some clubs are a cut above the rest in the Ykkonen and Viikingit are one of those sides, in my eyes. Despite temporarily having their license to play Ykkonen football this season suspended due to financial difficulties, they’ve obtained their license now and are ready to push for promotion again. There’s no denying that they’re one of the best sides in the Ykkonen and although they’re rather laborious in getting up field to score goals, they’re very tight defensively and generally can grind out wins in games like these. I’d pay no attention to their 3-2 defeat at HiFK on the opening day of their season as it was a derby and HiFK had everything to prove and nothing to lose on that day. This game today should be very different; much more shrewd, and calculating. What I’d pay more attention to is KooTeePee’s defeat at PK-35 Helsinki in their opening game as PK-35 Helsinki are a similar side to Viikingit Helsinki and that’s the kind of result I expect here too. The first goal will be key here but looking at KooTeePee’s attack, I just don’t see where their goals will come from. Therefore, I do think there’s some value in the home win at evens although approach with caution – the Ykkonen has undergone a lot of changes this season and we may see a few surprises this year as a result.
Team news – KooTeePee Kotka miss Tugushille.
Verdict: Viikingit Helsinki to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Jeonbuk Motors, Derry City, Rangers, Albirex Niigata, Real Madrid.
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today, sorry guys!
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Asian Champions League:
Jeonbuk Motors vs Arema Malang (9) -1.5 handicap
Kashima Antlers vs Sydney FC (7) 2-0
Cerezo Osaka vs Shandong Luneng (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Shanghai Shenhua vs Suwon Bluewings (5) 1-1
Al Rayyan vs Emirates (5) 1-2
Zob Ahan vs Al Shabab (6) 2-1
Al Wahda vs Persepolis (6) 1-2
Al Ittihad vs Bunyodkor (5) 1-0
Austrian Bundesliga:
Salzburg vs SV Kapfenberg (7) 1-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Club Brugge vs Racing Genk (6) 1-1
English Premier League:
Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur (7) 2-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
Viikingit Helsinki vs KooTeePee Kotka (7) under 2.5 goals
French Ligue 1:
Paris Saint-Germain vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (7) 1-0
Saint-Etienne vs LOSC Lille (6) 1-1
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Clermont Foot (6)
Chateauroux vs Angers SCO (5)
Grenoble Foot vs Boulogne (6)
Metz vs Le Havre (6)
Nantes vs Istres (5)
Reims vs Sedan-Ardennes (6)
Tours vs Dijon FCO (6) over 2.5 goals
Troyes vs Le Mans (5)
Vannes OC vs Nimes (6)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Szolnoki MAV vs Debreceni VSC (7) 1-2
Siofok vs Paksi SE (6) 1-1
Vasas Budapest vs Lombard Papa (7) 2-0
Ferencvaros vs Zalagerszegi TE (5) 1-1
Irish Premier League:
Derry City vs Drogheda United (8) 2-0
Sligo Rovers vs Bray Wanderers (7) 2-0
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Polonia Bytom vs Cracovia Krakow (5) 2-2
Polonia Warsaw vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (5) 1-0
Zaglebie Lubin vs Slask Wroclaw (6) over 2.5 goals
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warsaw (5) 1-1
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen vs St.Mirren (7) 2-0
Rangers vs Dundee United (8) 2-0
St.Johnstone vs Hamilton Academicals (6) 1-0
Serbian Super Liga:
Indija vs Spartak Subotica (5) 0-0
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Woodlands Wellington (8) 2-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Celje vs Maribor (5) 1-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Deportivo La Coruna vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (5) 2-1
Malaga vs Sporting Gijon (4) 1-1
Racing Santander vs Atletico Madrid (6) 2-1
Real Madrid vs Getafe (8) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Swiss Super League:
Sion vs Luzern (6) 1-1
Young Boys Bern vs Grasshopper Zurich (7) 2-1
Welsh Premier League:
Aberystwyth Town vs Airbus UK (6) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!