Torpedo Zhodino vs Dinamo Minsk
FreeAfter a largely successful saturday, we turn our attention to an intriguing sunday that has plenty of games to awaken the interest of punters, in my opinion!
Today’s featured game is the Belarusian Vysshaya Liga encounter between Torpedo Zhodino and Dinamo Minsk. Sadly, the Vysshaya Liga ends today for the season, which is sad for me as I love to bet in Belarus. Nonetheless, the season isn’t over until this key game has been played and with both sides looking to take the three points, I’m anticipating a good game here.
Torpedo Zhodino are currently eleventh in the Vysshaya Liga table, which means that they’re currently set to face SKVICH Minsk in the Vysshaya Liga Relegation/Promotion Play-Off. Realistically, Torpedo are going to face SKVICH whether they want to or not. Although a win in this game would see them draw level with Neman Grodno (with the proviso that Neman Grodno lose at home to Vitebsk, which they probably won’!) their goal difference won’t be enough to see them avoid the relegation play-off. However, Torpedo Zhodino need to maintain their recent burst of momentum to take into this play-off or they’re really going to struggle. Torpedo have already lost nine out of fifteen at home in the Vysshaya Liga because the hosts concede nearly two goals per home game on average and score less than a goal per home game on average. Torpedo are little more than a battling defensive unit but they need to be more enterprising today as their visitors absolutely need three points and will attack from kick-off so Torpedo are going to have to attack to relieve some of the pressure, which doesn’t suit them or their style at all. Impressively, Torpedo have fended off BATE Borisov and FC Minsk in their last two home games, drawing both encounters 1-1. In fact, Torpedo Zhodino beat Dinamo Minsk at home back in August, which was the first time they’ve achieved such a feat since they were promoted years ago. However, I would hasten to point out that they faced an under-strength Dinamo Minsk side as the visitors on that occasion were resting players for their European game so I wouldn’t read too much into it. What I would read a lot into, however, is the fact that Torpedo Zhodino had scored just twice in the previous seven meetings between the two sides prior to that occasion because Dinamo Minsk are a much better side and Torpedo Zhodino don’t score goals, especially now Beganskiy has moved on. They’ve missed the energy of Ogar in midfield, who is out with a long-term injury, and that could be fatal if they’re not careful in the play-off, which is precisely why they need to attack Dinamo Minsk today in hope of getting a good result to give them much-needed confidence.
However, giants Dinamo Minsk most certainly have other ideas. Anything but a win here means no European football for Dinamo Minsk next season, which is frankly a major disaster for them. They crashed out of the Belarusian Cup to local rivals Partizan Minsk and even if rivals BATE Borisov beat Dinamo Brest in the Belarusian Cup Final then Dinamo Brest get a place in the UEFA Europa League. There’s no two ways about it; Dinamo Minsk must win here and even then they need a favour from Naftan Novopolotsk against local rivals FC Minsk. If Dinamo Minsk don’t enter European competition then they’re likely to lose the likes of star midfielder Sergey Kislyak, which will set this club back a year or two i.e. they can’t afford for that to happen. Dinamo Minsk have already won eight out of fifteen on the road in the Vysshaya Liga this season so they do bring confidence into this game, especially on the back of a 2-0 home win against Dinamo Brest. Dinamo Minsk have faded in the latter stages of this campaign because they’ve played a lot of games this season due to European committments despite having a rather young side. Gurenko has done a terrific job this season but fatigue is a factor that has damaged Dinamo Minsk. However, it’s truly a “now or never” situation so I don’t expect to see that impact Dinamo’s display today and when they need to win, they’re usually good enough to actually win so I think we’ll see a Dinamo win here.
The only concern I have for Dinamo here is that Dragun misses the game through injury. He’s an important midfielder for them and I’d much prefer it if he played. However, midfield is the one area that Dinamo can afford an absentee as it’s their specialist area so I’m going to ride it here. They at least have captain Kislyak playing and anything is possible with him at the heart of their 4-5-1. Look at the quality midfielders that Dinamo Minsk possess – Rekish, Chukhley, Strakhanovich, and even Renan – all of those players make things happen so I still fancy Dinamo to win this one. From a long-term perspective, Dinamo need a more experienced striker than their emerging Brazilian talents i.e. Furlan and Sotero because a 4-5-1 is not an easy formation to just slide into – Dinamo Minsk need a Pavel Beganskiy type player for difficult games. Nonetheless, Dinamo Minsk need the points here and they should be able to dominate midfield with their superior side so the away win at 9/10 looks good to me today.
Verdict: Dinamo Minsk to win at 9/10 at Bwin.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs River Plate – away win with draw no bet at 9/10.
There’s a good reason that San Lorenzo are playing as if they have nothing to play for here – it’s because they don’t have anything to play for! They’ve no chance of achieving a Copa Libertadores place and they’re clear of the relegation zone and their lack of motivation is starting to show. They’ve scored just once in three games, losing twice, and drawing once along the way. This is the time when the hosts resort to playing the ball to talismanic playmaker Romagnoli and hoping he does something with it, which he’s good at but he has little support on that front so San Lorenzo tend to struggle. Striker Menseguez will be keen to leave a lasting impression against his former club for San Lorenzo but aside from that, there is no motivation for San Lorenzo here. They’ve got a damn good record against River Plate at home, however, hence my cover of this selection with draw no bet. River Plate are a long way from what they were but let’s face it – if they’re not motivated after an “El Clasico” win against Boca Juniors then when will they be?! River Plate still have massive problems with scoring goals, which makes this bet dubious. To be honest, I’d normally leave this kind of game alone because both are decent sides. However, River Plate absolutely need three points here because of the threat of relegation. They’re three points behind Huracan and with just five games remaining, they need to keep winning. Motivation and momentum is high for the visitors and they’ve got enough match winners in Ortega and Buonanotte to give them a goal or two against an uninterested San Lorenzo side so my call is the away win with draw no bet at 9/10.
Verdict: River Plate to win with draw no bet at 9/10.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Velez Sarsfield – over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
I don’t think the bookies have priced this game correctly at all. Argentina’s Primera Division isn’t as goal-filled as stereotypes may have you believe and thus I’d normally agree with odds of 6/5 on such a selection. However, Gimnasia De La Plata are six points from safety in the relegation zone and they need points. Their problem is scoring goals but fear has propelled them into a goalscoring machine of late with eight goals scored in their last four home games. Three of those games have gone over 2.5 goals as Gimnasia also have a problem in that they cannot defend and I expect something similar today. Velez Sarsfield are top of the table with five rounds of fixtures remaining and four wins from their last five games gives them the momentum that they need to succeed here. The title is between themselves and Estudiantes so Velez do need to keep winning. They impressively won at defensively-strong Banfield in their last away game so they’re more than capable of beating an inferior Gimnasia side tonight.
I was tempted to take the away win here but 3/4 on the away doesn’t sit well with me at all – no side in Argentina is worth those odds away from home. Four out of the last five meetings betwee these two sides at this ground have gone over 2.5 goals and the same looks likely tonight with both sides needing three points so I expect a good, open encounter with a scoreline that shows over 2.5 goals.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Sydney FC vs Perth Glory – home win at 21/20.
Sydney FC may be bottom of the A-League but any followers of this league know that they don’t belong there. They’ve had a season to forget, it’s true, but to disregard the quality of their side as the above odds do is quite foolish, in my opinion. Sydney have started to play well of late, a run which was started by a 0-3 victory at today’s opponents Perth Glory. Since then, only an inspired Gold Coast United have beaten Sydney with Sydney drawing 1-1 at home to in-form Brisbane Roar and beating Newcastle Jets in their two home games. Sydney aren’t scoring enough goals to be taken seriously against the in-form sides of the division but happily they’re facing out-of-form Perth Glory so I’ll give them their chances here. Sydney welcome back striker Mark Bridge from injury, which benefits them, naturally. They still miss Nick Carle in midfield but they should have enough going forward to take their chance(s) and win the game.
However, my confidence comes from Perth Glory’s inability to play well away from home. It’s startling to consider that arguably the most potent attacking line in Australia is so utterly ineffectual away from home but that’s exactly the situation that Perth Glory have facing them currently. They’ve scored one goal in their last five away games in the A-League so it’s no surprise that they’ve lost all five of those games. A 3-1 win at home to Melbourne Victory last match will have done them the power of good mentally but they still struggle on the road. It won’t help Perth Glory’s mentality that they’ve lost two out of their last three visits to Sydney and in all honesty, they should find a third defeat in four consecutive visits here today. Not because they’re not as good as Sydney because I personally think Perth have a marginally better side following some impressive summer signings but because they don’t show it away from home.
Approach this game with caution as the A-League is never worthy of heavy stakes. We also have to bear in mind that Sydney rarely score more than once so a Perth Glory goal could fuck this up. Either way, the odds on Sydney to win this game seem a tad flattering given their momentum of late so I’ll call the home win here, especially as Perth Glory miss important midfielder Neville through suspension for this game.
Verdict: Sydney FC to win at 21/20.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
FC Minsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk – over 2.5 goals at 7/10.
Following on from my preview at the top of of the page…
FC Minsk have to win this game. If they win, they gain an unprecedented UEFA Europa League place. Not only would that be a miraculous set of circumstances for the hosts but if they do that then they also ensure that more illustrious local rivals Dinamo Minsk don’t get a European place so they have double the atypical motivation here. However, I’m put off from the home win here because FC Minsk are very inexperienced in this situation and it’s showing. They’ve won just once in seven Vysshaya Liga games as they’ve lost their focus and have naturally gotten nervous. However, they regained their composure to a sufficient level last match to win 1-3 at Vitebsk and give themselves a chance of causing an upset by claiming third place in the table. Four out of those last seven games have gone over 2.5 goals because FC Minsk’s defence isn’t the best. FC Minsk tend to rely on their attacking threat to see them win games rather than their defence but it’s a lack of goals of late that has hamstrung their European aspirations. Fortuitously for the hosts, they’re facing Naftan Novopolotsk at home, who never play well away from home, so FC Minsk will fancy their chances here.
However, despite Naftan Novopolotsk not having anythng to play for here and despite them never travelling well, they still need to be respected here. They’ve been utterly immese in the latter stages of the Vysshaya Liga campaign and have only come unstuck in their last few games as they’ve encountered some sides that desperately need the points. Naftan actually drew 4-4 in their last home game against bottom club Partizan Minsk and have now gone over 2.5 goals for two consecutive games. Naftan’s run must be a little demoralising but with nothing to lose, today’s visitors are still working hard and scoring goals. They are missing striker Zuev through injury today but that doesn’t concern me as they’ve got ample alternatives to utilise. Naftan are not going to sit back here – they’re going to try and score goals against a dubious FC Minsk defence and I think they’ll have some joy too. However, as it’s been indicated all too well of late, Naftan tend to lose out against sides that need the points and FC Minsk need the points badly, so I won’t be entering the 1×2 market here.
This exact fixture ended 3-1 back in August and a similar scoreline certainly isn’t out of the question. The hosts need the points and the visitors are scoring goals because they have no pressure so over 2.5 goals looks very likely here today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 7/10.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Dinamo Brest vs Belshina – home win at 6/5.
You have to approach this game with caution as it means nothing to either side.
However, I simply cannot overlook Dinamo Brest being priced at 6/5 at home because they’re a bloody good home side whenever they play! Considering that the hosts have won four consecutive home games without having had any motivation for each of those games, I think it’s worthwhile to back the hosts to continue their run of good form. Dinamo have scored at least two goals per each of those four games and have looked good whilst doing so. Belshina held Dinamo Brest to a 1-1 here earlier in the season but Dinamo Brest are still the better of the two sides with defensive unit Belshina little more than a draw specialist away from home. Belshina have found life in the Vysshaya Liga tough since gaining promoton last season. They played very well and caused a lot of upsets at the start of the campaign but have struggled as the season has continued and thus enter this game on the back of two consecutive defeats. They’ve only scored in one out of their last six away games and if they do that today then I’m confident that they’ll lose, given the impressive goalscoring record of hosts Dinamo Brest of late.
My concern here is whether Belshina will grind out a 0-0 draw as they often do but with the hosts priced as generously as 6/5 to win this game, I can’t help but feel it’s worth the risk. Dinamo Brest reportedly aren’t resting any players for the Belarusian Cup Final against BATE Borisov as it’s six days away so they’re only missing Kibuk through injury whilst Belshina miss Durai through injury. Either way, the odds on the home win still appeal to me so my call is the home win here!
Verdict: Dinamo Brest to win at 6/5.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Zulte-Waregem vs Standard de Liege – away win at evens.
Zulte-Waregem have enjoyed a strong head-to-head record with Standard de Liege in recent years, especially so at home. However, times have changed and they’re not the same side that they were so I have my doubts over the odds given on the away win today. Zulte-Waregem may have only lost twice at home in the Eerste Klasse this season but the only side of any substantial quality that they’ve faced has been Club Brugge and they lost that game 2-3. Zulte-Waregem rarely have problems scoring goals and a leaky Standard de Liege defence should aid them there but they’re going to have to score a lot to prevent a rejuvenated Standard de Liege side here and I don’t believe they’re capable of doing that.
I don’t think it’s any coincidence at all that Standard have started playing well ever since they signed Tchite from Racing Santander. They only lacked a proper striker to start the ball rolling again and now they’ve done that and are title contenders again. Standard have played twelve games since they signed Tchite and they’ve only lost three times. Two of those defeats were acceptable; one was a tough trip to Mechelen and the other was to league leaders Racing Genk in a 4-2 defeat. The defeat at home to Eupen a couple of weeks ago was the only bizarre result in all twelve games, however, so I’m writing that off as a “one-off” here. Why? Well, look at how consistently well that Standard have played along the way! They’ve beaten Anderlecht 5-1, AA Gent 2-1, claimed a 2-2 draw at in-form Club Brugge, and have even beaten Racing Genk 2-1 in the Cup. Their heads didn’t drop after the strange defeat against Eupen and Standard followed it up by winning at Germinal Beerschot, which is never an easy away game. Standard look a very complete side with Witsel and Defour pulling the strings in midfield and with Tchite scoring the goals, Standard look a top four side again and should be treated as such.
I therefore cannot undersand odds of evens on the away win here. Standard are a better side than Zulte-Waregem and whilst the visitors are scoring so many goals, the away win should be priced shorter than it is. Therefore, my value pick for this game is the away win at evens.
Verdict: Standard de Liege to win at evens.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Club Brugge vs Cercle Brugge – lay Club Brugge at 27/20.
There’s no great secret here; I just don’t see how Club Brugge can be priced at 1/2 for a derby! Cercle Brugge aren’t as big or as good as their more illustrious neighbours but they’re still a decent outfit. It’s impressive to see them trying to play football too, something which is aided by their loan signings from Sporting Clube de Lisboa, so don’t expect Club Brugge to simply be the flambuoyant side that walks past their inferior neighbours here. Indeed, Club Brugge’s inability to defend is what makes 1/2 on the home win look such a joke! Club Brugge’s midfield is good enough to win this game for them, I’ll admit, but Club Brugge themselves as a whole are not worthy of 1/2 to win this game. This game means the world to Cercle Brugge; it’s the highlight of their season so they will absolutely work their socks off for every ball here. Given Club Brugge’s abject displays of late, you have to feel that Cercle Brugge could score some joy off them here. Club Brugge possess better players than Cercle Brugge en mass but the gulf isn’t big enough to merit those odds. Therefore, my call is to lay the hosts, risky as it is!
Verdict: Lay Club Brugge at 27/20.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro – lay Atletico Mineiro at 3/4.
You may or may not be aware that Palmeiras have announced that they’re fielding an entire second string for this game due to them prioritising the Copa Sudamericana tie with Goias next week. This seems pretty stupid and pointless as Palmeiras won the first leg 0-2 away from home and they’re going to be playing a Goias side that don’t want to be in the competition. Nonetheless, Scolari wants to wrap his stars in cotton wool so that’s what they’re doing here. A quick glance at the Serie A table shows that Atletico Mineiro need as many points as possible to stave off the threat of relegation so that probably explains why Atletico Mineiro are favourites to win this game and that much I can accept. However, Atletico Mineiro are currently 7/10 to win this game – are the bookies serious?! A side that has won three away games in seventeen attempts this season? They’ve won two of those games in their last four away games, admittedly, but they were against a terrible Atletico Goianiense side and against bitter rivals Cruzeiro in the derby so let’s not get carried away here. Atletico Mineiro are very much a home side so don’t lose sight of that with the odds on show here.
This bet is obviously a risk because Atletico Mineiro need the points whereas Palmeiras don’t care. However, let’s not lose sight of the fact that Palmeiras are the best side in Brazil when it comes to avoiding defeat; they’re absolute masters at it. Palmeiras will field a second-string but those players will be keen to impress. Few sides take a win from a trip to Palmeiras and it’s going to take more than a determined relegation battler to convince me that the away win is worth 7/10 so my call is to lay the visitors here.
Verdict: Lay Atletico Mineiro at 3/4.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Botafogo vs Internacional – home win at 1/2.
Are Botafogo worth 1/2 here? In general – no, they’re absolutely not because they’re not a great side and they’re not particularly good goalscorers.
However, this game is different. Internacional have been totally uninterested in Serie A games for weeks now because they’ve already got their Copa Libertadores place for next season. Internacional have rested players along the way and generally indicated that they don’t give a shit, which I think is fair enough, having won the most prestigious trophy in South America. However, they’ve made a very interesting decision to rest almost all of their entire first-team for this game ahead of their trip to Japan in a few weeks to compete in the World Club Championship. They’re only taking Tinga and Rafael Sobis to face Botafogo from their first-team today but you have to question why they’re resting players here. You don’t need to rest players for games a few weeks in advance so why have they done it? I suppose that it’s only mere coincidence that the side that they’re facing tonight happens to be a side that can prevent Internacional’s bitter rivals Gremio from achieving a Copa Libertadores place next season, isn’t it? I don’t think Internacional will lie down and lose easily here, not at all – I’m sure they’re far too professional for that…
So yeah – Internacional don’t give a shit about this game. In fact, they care even less about it than they did about the games before it because losing this game means Gremio struggle. Put it this way – I think Botafogo will find a way to win this game one way or another. The hosts are very hard to beat and thus if they take their chances then they’ll generally win games. I wouldn’t go as far as to say this game is rigged as a home win but I would say that Internacional wouldn’t be particularly upset at losing at Botafogo definitely need to win it with a trip to Gremio looming as their last game of the season. Therefore, my call is the home win at 1/2.
Verdict: Botafogo to win at 1/2.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Only two out of Cruzeiro’s last ten home games in Serie A have gone over 2.5 goals and one of those was a derby so it’s easy to see how Cruzeiro play their football. Cruzeiro have struggled to make the most of their “home” games over the past few months as their stadium has undergone renovation ahead of the World Cup in 2014 so they’ve been playing their games at local venues but it’s not quite the same as playing in your own stadium. Indeed, despite challenging for the title, Cruzeiro lost 0-2 at home to an unmotivated Sao Paulo side in their last game so they’re not as immortal as they’d like to think that they are. However, Cruzeiro needing the points should be enough to see them take three points tonight as Vasco da Gama have nothing to play for here. It also helps that Gusmao is in charge of Vasco – they always line up defensively with him in charge. Vasco are the lowest-scoring away side in Serie A with just nine goals scored in seventeen away games as they play for the draw rather than the away win. They’re usually tight at the back too as Gusmao sets up his defences very well indeed. Vasco have struggled a little of late after a battling season against relegation but they’ve done enough to beat it for at least another year so morale is decent. Eleven out of Vasco’s last thirteen away games in Serie A have gone under 2.5 goals because they stick men behind the ball and don’t score many goals. I don’t see that attitude changing today because there’s no reason for it to do so. Their last visit to Cruzeiro went under 2.5 goals and their home encounter with Cruzeiro earlier this season went under 2.5 goals. Therefore, I feel that under 2.5 goals is priced far too generously at 4/5 here.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Once Caldas Manizales vs Cucuta Deportivo – home win at 7/10.
There’s always at least one side that sneaks into the final eight of the Colombian Primera A that shouldn’t be there and this season’s entry is Cucuta Deportivo. Of course, you see the usual names – Deportes Tolima, Once Caldas Manizales, Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota – and a few other unusual ones following abject campaigns for Independiente Medellin and Atletico Junior Barranquilla respectively. However, Cucuta Deportivo and Deportes Quindio are the weakest sides in the final eight for me and I think they’ll finally be exposed by Colombia’s elite. Once Caldas are simply a lot, lot better than Cucuta Deportivo. Once Caldas can’t defend for shit but that’s not caused them and problems at home thus far in this campaign with seven wins in nine home games whilst averaging scoring two goals per home game. Cucuta’s away record is as depressing as most Colombian sides’ away record is – five defeats in nine games whilst scoring just six goals. However, this poor record is highlighted as they mix it with the big boys and I think they’re going to get an eye-opening experience here.
The only two sides to prevent Once Caldas from beating them in Once Caldas’ last ten games have been Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota and Atletico Junior Barranquilla respectively, both of which were away from home. Everyone else has succumbed to arguably the most poten side in Colombia at the present time and I don’t see anything from Cucuta Deportivo that will convince me that anything else will occur tonight but a home win. 7/10 generally isn’t great odds but Once Caldas should be 1/2 here so my call is the home win.
Verdict: Once Caldas Manizales to win at 7/10.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Sigma Olomouc vs Marila Pribram – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
Sigma Olomouc have long been a dominant home side in the Gambrinus Liga because they score so many goals – they just never make it count long-term because they’re generally a rather poor away side. Fortunately, that isn’t a problem that faces us today as they’re at home so I’m happy to back them here. They’ve already won six out of eight at home this season whilst averaging scoring nearly three goals per home game. Frighteningly enough, they also boast an incredibly strong defensive record with an average of a goal being conceded just once every two home games. The only side to beat them here this season is Sparta Prague, which I feel is quite an acceptable defeat! Sigma Olomouc have beaten a few poor sides by heavy margins, sure, but they’ve also demolished Jablonec, Slovan Liberec, and 5-5-0 formation sides Bohemians 1905 and Ceske Budejovice. What this demonstrates is that they can not only beat good sides but also sides that “park the bus” in front of goal and that’s important here because that’s exactly what Pribram will do here. Sigma Olomouc’s attacking play centres largely around towering target man Michael Hubnik as his aerial threat is constant against any side in the Gambrinus Liga so it’s no surprise that he’s already bagged eleven times this season. Sigma’s 4-3-3 at home is absolutely deadly and it’s going to take a very good Pribram display to take anything off their superior hosts today.
Visitors Marila Pribram are unbeaten in four consecutive games and thus bring some good momentum into this game. However, three of those sides were terrible and the other side (Teplice) doesn’t travel well so I’m not exactly blown away here. For me, Pribram have only played three tough away games this season – Jablonec, Viktoria Plzen, and Mlada Boleslav respectively – and they’ve lost all of those games, two of which by a scoreline which defeated the -1.5 goal handicap. At home, Pribram are a different side; very hard to score against and thus very hard to beat. Away from their compact pitch, Pribram can be exposed and this is the type of game where it really should show.
Pribram have lost their last two visits to face Sigma Olomouc by two goals or more and the fact that they’ve never won away from home against Sigma Olomouc in the Gambrinus Liga should speak volumes about the class difference here. Therefore, my call is for Sigma Olomouc to beat the -1.5 goal handicap here at evens.
Verdict: Sigma Olomouc to win with -1.5 goal handicap at evens.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Sparta Prague vs Ceske Budejovice – home win with -2.5 handicap at 19/10.
Backing any side to beat a -2.5 goal handicap is always a risky bet but I like the odds on it so I’ll give it a whirl here!
You see, Sparta Prague are actually starting to play very well indeed. The reason they’re playing well is because they’re scoring goals again and wins at difficult sides (i.e. Slovan Liberec, Bohemians 1905) have demonstrated how well Sparta Prague are playing because of their high confidence levels. They crushed newly-promoted Usti nad Labem 4-1 in their last home game so have no doubts over Sparta Prague’s ability to score goals, especially as star striker Wilfried has been playing so well that he earned a call-up to the Ivory Coast international side against Poland mid-week. Sparta Prague haven’t beaten Ceske Budejovice by such a heavy margin since 2006 but with this game being their last of the current year as the winter break looms large, you have to feel that Sparta Prague will want to send their fans home happy after this game, particularly as a tough trip to Palermo in the UEFA Europa League isn’t far away. Sparta Prague need as many points as they can to try and catch up with runaway league leaders Viktoria Plzen and if they continue playing as impressively as they are then I don’t see why they won’t catch them eventually. Therefore, Sparta Prague have more than enough going for them to make it count today.
It aids my cause massively that Ceske Budejovice take very little interest in scoring goals, especially away from home. Ceske are the atypical “eleven men behind the ball” side and generally, I won’t back heavy handicaps against such sides for obvious reasons. However, Ceske have been absolutely terrible lately and it’s shown as they’ve been dealt some crushing scorelines. Ceske’s only strength is defence and the day that they no longer possess that strength is the day they get relegated. Ceske have shipped ten goals in three games, unsurprisingly losing all three games. They were drubbed 5-1 at Sigma Olomouc and lost 1-3 at home to Mlada Boleslav last match so you can tell times are bad for Ceske – they rarely lose at home, especially by such a heavy scoreline. There’s no denying that Ceske will be motivated to play in what is effectively a “Cup Final” for them against the biggest club in the Czech Republic but it takes more than grit to stop in-form Sparta and I think Ceske will find that out the hard way today.
So yeah – this is definitely a bold call and do approach with caution. However, I don’t think Sparta have ever looked more likely to do so in the past few years than they do now and at odds of 19/10, I think it’s worth a shot, especially given the woeful displays of Ceske Budejovice lately.
Verdict: Sparta Prague to win with -2.5 goal handicap at 19/10.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Blackburn Rovers vs Aston Villa – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Make what you will of this one but these two sides tend to produce interesting games, shall we say! The majority of them go over 2.5 goals as two footballing contrasts lock horns and that’s what I expect today. On one hand, we have Blackburn Rovers, who specialise in defending, scoring the odd goal, and hanging on for dear life. On the other hand, we have a sporadic Aston Villa side that attacks with flair but doesn’t defend well enough when under pressure. That in itself leaves us with an interesting prospect and it also explains why these two sides often participate in head-to-head games which go over 2.5 goals. However, to pour petrol onto the fire, Blackburn are missing defender Olsson, defensive midfielder N’Zonzi, and have doubts over Brett Emerton for this game. Villa have serious doubts over the fitness of centre-backs Dunne and Collins for this game too and if they play a physical Blackburn side without them then they’re going to concede even more goals than I currently expect them to. Three out of Blackburn’s last five home games have gone over 2.5 goals and four out of Villa’s last six away games have gone over 2.5 goals, not to mention their last two consecutive games having comfortably gone over 2.5 goals in very attacking affairs. Therefore, my call is over 2.5 goals in this game as it’s priced a little more generously than I think it should be.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Racing Club Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais – home win with draw no bet at 31/20.
No trip to the Felix Bollaert is ever easy and Lyon know that. It won’t help their cause that Lens have slipped into their temporary “immortal” state with five games without defeat. Lens’ strength is that they don’t concede many goals, especially at home, hence their commanding home record in Ligue 1 every year. They’ve only shipped two goals in their last five games and both of those were away from home. Indeed, they drew 1-1 at giants Olympique de Marseille last match so confidence is high in the Lens camp, especially having won two consecutive home games ahead of this game without even conceding a goal. Lens are playing very well and their physical game is one that Lyon never relish playing against and with the hosts as in-form as they are, I don’t see Lyon taking the win from this game. Lyon are missing Lopez, Delgado, Ederson, and Cissokho for this game. Although the first three of those players are long-term, their losses are still evident. They miss Lopez as he’s the best striker they have by a mile. They miss Delgado for his pace. They can compensate for the loss of Ederson with Kallstrom or Pjanic – that’s not a biggie – but the loss of Cissokho at left-back is a real problem in that there isn’t anyone anywhere near good enough to replace him. That said, Lens themselves have a hefty injury list with Sow, Ramos, Pollet, Jemaa, Demont, Situ, Sertic, and Queudrue all absent and Kovacevic a doubt. Fortunately, most of those players are not from the first-team so Lens should be able to cope ok as they have done in recent weeks. Lyon, however, have been unconvincing already in Ligue 1 this season and any kind of knock to their fragile confidence will hurt them hard so Lens aren’t ideal opponents for Lyon today; not by a long way! Lyon have only won once in six away games in Ligue 1 this season thanks to poor defending and no Lisandro Lopez in attack to score the many chances that are created but both of those problems are still problems ahead of this game so I really don’t fancy Lyon here.
It’s also worth mentioning that Lyon have an intriguing trip to face Schalke 04 in a few days in the UEFA Champions League, a game that they could do with avoiding defeat in. I therefore again have to place the advantage in favour of the hosts and call the home win with draw no bet cover at 31/20 because I feel it’s too generously priced for a side that is consistently very strong at home, year after year.
Verdict: Racing Club Lens to win with draw no bet at 31/20.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Fehervar vs Ujpest – lay Fehervar at 27/20.
Call this crazy or superstitious; whatever you wish. However, Ujpest simply play better against big sides than they do against little sides! I don’t know if it’s the motivation or the tactics that suit Ujpest more but they simply play better against big sides. Consider that Ujpest haven’t lost in four consecutive visits to face Fehervar, for example. They haven’t done particularly well in most of those Soproni Liga campaigns but they’ve still avoided defeat against a title challenging side each time. Ujpest have only avoided defeat three times in seven away games this season. Two of those games were against Kaposvari Rakoczi (who are having a very good season) and reigning champions Debreceni VSC. Incidentally, the draw at Debreceni VSC was the only game in eight that Debreceni VSC have not won at home this season! It aids my bet that Fehervar bizarrely lost their last home game 0-2 against Soproni Liga old hands Budapest Honved but even so – Ujpest view games like this as Cup Finals every time. It must be very frustrating for their fans that Ujpest don’t emulate those displays against lesser sides in the division but ultimately I expect a highly-charged Ujpest side to not lose this game at decent odds.
Verdict: Lay Fehervar at 27/20.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Groningen vs Feyenoord Rotterdam – home win at 4/5.
I like Groningen. They’re a feeder club for the bigger sides in the Eredivisie but they don’t care – they’re still hard to play against and often do well at home. They currently boast the strongest home record in the division with six wins and one draw in seven home games whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per game and conceding less than a goal per game on average. They don’t have any absentees in this game and although their 3-0 defeat at Heracles Almelo last match was puzzling, we have to remind ourselves that Groningen are not a side that consistently plays well away from home – they are only consistent at home.
Feyenoord haven’t played well at Groningen in years now. Hell, they’ve lost five out of their last six visits here and as they’re bringing their weakest squad in years for this game, I really don’t fancy them at all. Feyenoord have already lost five out of seven on the road this season with an average of less than a goal being scored per away game and an average of over three goals conceded per away game, although most of those came in their drubbing at PSV Eindhoven lately. The fact remains that Feyenoord are nothing but a name nowadays, however, and that should be highlighted today. Feyenoord are without a win in three consecutive games and given that they’re missing Tomasson, Schenkeveld, Fernandez, Cisse, Fer, Smolov, De Cler, Schaken, and Bruins for this game, it’s hard to envision them getting anything here. Some of those players are long-term absentees and yet their absence from this team is still highly evident, especially so in attack. Feyenoord miss some important attackers, midfielders, and key full-back De Cler for this game so the odds really are against them today.
I normally wouldn’t take Groningen at 4/5 against a sleeping giant (of sorts!) but given Feyenoord’s woeful away form and lengthy list of absentees, the home win at 4/5 really appeals to me today.
Verdict: Groningen to win at 4/5.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Poli Timisoara vs Otelul Galati – home win at 11/10.
I think it’s about time this Otelul Galati party came crashing to a halt and Poli Timisoara are a side good enough to see it happen. Otelul are not a top side in Romania; they’re a very efficient side, especially at home, but regularly struggle to find the net because they’re not a particularly good side. They’re vibrant, enthusiastic, tenacious, but also rather young too. Poli Timisoara, however, will match that energy at home and they’re always a threat on their own turf. Truth be told, Timisoara are a better side than Otelul and that is a large factor behind my bet, naturally. Timisoara are unbeaten at home this season with five wins and two draws in seven games whilst averaging scoring over two goals per game. Their defence isn’t great but Otelul shouldn’t be attacking often enough for that to be a problem. Well, to put it another way – it’s not mattered for Otelul’s last four visits as they’ve lost all four games! Axente, Magera, and Zicu form a dangerous threesome in Timisoara’s 4-3-3 and even a solid Otelul defence will have to be unbelievable to keep them out today, in my opinion.
Visitors Otelul are starting to look a little stretched too, which was to be expected. They’ve drawn with CFR Cluj at home, which may not be a bad result at all on paper but Otelul were rarely out of control of that game and let a lead slip against a Cluj side with a numerical disadvantage. Otelul claimed a good win at Craiova in the following game but struggled massively at home to inferior Victoria Branesti last match. Why did they struggle? Well, Branesti has a good manager and they have a good team bond. They’re not a match for Otelul quality-wise but you don’t have to be better than Otelul to get a result off them – just score your chances and you’ll not lose to Otelul more often than not. The pressure of leading the Liga table is beginning to get to Otelul and I think we may finally see the wheels fall off their unprecedented title push against a superior and potent Poli Timisoara today.
This is obviously not a dead cert as Otelul are hard to beat at the best of times. However, to say anything but that Timisoara are a better side here is a lie, to be frank. Odds of 11/10 look a bargain here because Timisoara shouldn’t be longer than 10/11, in my opinion – they’re a better side than Otelul, especially when it comes to scoring goals. Therefore, my call for this game is the home win today.
Verdict: Poli Timisoara to win at 11/10.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Espanyol vs Hercules Alicante – home win at 4/5.
Espanyol have already won five out of five games in Barcelona this season and although they’re not untouchable, they’re facing yet another side that they’re more than capable of beating at home. Espanyol’s tight defence will have to cope without Ruiz, who is injured, but should remain strong nonetheless against a fairly toothless Hercules side. Espanyol’s defence is paramount to their success at home because they’re not a good goalscoring side with far too much weight on young Osvaldo’s shoulders in attack. Sergio Garcia has not delivered in his appearances for Espanyol and Luis Garcia and Callejon aren’t contributing as heavily as they need to. However, take nothing away from Pellegrino – he knows how to get his side playing in front of their fans and they should be able to do so again today. They miss holding midfielder Duscher, which is a blow, but again, they should still have too much for Hercules.
Hercules rely too much on Trezeguet, simply put. Haedo-Valdez is a good supporting striker that never seems to feel tired due to his excellent stamina but the only legitimate goal threat comes from Trezeguet, who I personally feel that Espanyol won’t have much trouble defending against. Defenders Cortes and Paz are doubts for this game, which is a blow for Hercules as they need to be solid at the back to take anything from Barcelona because they don’t score many goals either, although theirs is largely due to a lack of quality. Hercules’ only away win so far this season ironically came in Barcelona at the Nou Camp against Espanyol’s more illustrious neighbours Barcelona. Since then, Hercules have only scored once on the road against a very weak Almeria side, losing heavily in two out of their last three games against Osasuna and Getafe respectively. Hercules simply aren’t a particularly good side and they’re almost never good away from home so I really don’t fancy them against an enthusiastic, well-organised, and well-supported Espanyol side today.
The odds seem a little generous on the Espanyol win here despite them not being prolific in front of goal. They’re by far the better side with a better manager and the home advantage so the hosts should manage to make it count today. Hercules will battle hard but I think Espanyol should have too much for them here so the home win at 4/5 appeals to me today.
Verdict: Espanyol to win at 4/5.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Accumulator fodder:
Racing Club Avellaneda, Botafogo, APOEL Nicosia, Sigma Olomouc, Sparta Prague, FC Copenhagen, Aris Salonika, Olympiakos Piraeus, Heerenveen, RKC Waalwijk, Universidad San Martin, Wisla Krakow, Lausanne Sports, Trabzonspor.
Recommended bets:
Espanyol, Sparta Prague, and Trabzonspor at 2/1.
Groningen, Olympiakos Piraeus, and Lausanne Sports at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs River Plate (4) 0-1
Boca Juniors vs Arsenal de Sarandi (5) 1-1
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Velez Sarsfield (6) over 2.5 goals
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Quilmes (8) 2-0
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC vs Perth Glory (6) 1-0
Central Coast Mariners vs Gold Coast United (6) both sides to score
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wacker Innsbruck vs Austria Vienna (5) 0-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Partizan Minsk vs Dnepr Mogilev (5) 1-1
FC Minsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk (6) over 2.5 goals
Neman Grodno vs Vitebsk (6) 1-0, draw no bet
BATE Borisov vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk (6) over 2.5 goals
Dinamo Brest vs Belshina (6) 2-0
Torpedo Zhodino vs Dinamo Minsk (6) over 2.5 goals
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Zulte-Waregem vs Standard de Liege (6) over 2.5 goals
Club Brugge vs Cercle Brugge (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
Brazilian Serie A:
Sao Paulo vs Fluminense (5) 1-1
Palmeiras vs Atletico Mineiro (4) 1-1
Botafogo vs Internacional (8) 2-0
Vitoria vs Corinthians (5) 1-2
Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama (6) under 2.5 goals
Goias vs Santos (5) over 2.5 goals
Avai vs Atletico Goianiense (7) over 2.5 goals
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
La Serena vs Palestino (6) over 2.5 goals
Nublense vs Univerisdad de Concepcion (4) 1-1
Huachipato vs Cobreloa (6) 1-0
Audax Italiano vs Santiago Morning (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Union Espanola vs O’Higgins (5) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Deportes Quindio (5) 1-0
Once Caldas Manizales vs Cucuta Deportivo (7) over 2.5 goals
Cypriot Division 1:
APOEL Nicosia vs Doxa (8) 2-0
AEL Limassol vs Alki (5) 1-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Hradec Kralove vs Slovacko (5) 2-1
Sigma Olomouc vs Marila Pribram (8) -1.5 handicap
Sparta Prague vs Ceske Budejovice (9) -2.5 handicap
Danish Superligaen:
Silkeborg vs Esbjerg (5) 1-1
FC Copenhagen vs FC Nordsjaelland (8) 2-0
SonderjyskE vs AC Horsens (5) 2-1
Aalborg BK vs Brondby (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Danish 1st Division:
Hvidovre vs AB Copenhagen (6) over 2.5 goals
Bronshoj vs AGF Aarhus (7) under 2.5 goals
Kolding vs Fredericia (5)
Vestjaelland vs Viborg (6)
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Macara Ambato vs Barcelona Guayaquil (6) under 2.5 goals
English Premier League:
Blackburn Rovers vs Aston Villa (5) over 2.5 goals
Fulham vs Manchester City (5) 1-0
French Ligue 1:
Arles vs Girondins de Bordeaux (4) 1-1
LOSC Lille vs AS Monaco (7) 1-0
Racing Club Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais (5) 1-0, draw no bet
German Bundesliga:
VfB Stuttgart vs Koln (7) over 2.5 goals
St.Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg (6) 1-2
German Bundesliga 2:
Augsburg vs Karlsruher SC (7) over 2.5 goals
1860 Munich vs FSV Frankfurt (6) under 2.5 goals
Erzebirge Aue vs Alemannia Aachen (4) under 2.5 goals
Greek Super League:
Atromitos vs Ergotelis (6) 1-0
Aris Salonika vs Kerkyra Corfu (8) under 2.5 goals
Larissa vs Panionios (7) 1-0
Kavala vs AEK Athens (5) under 2.5 goals
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK Salonika (8) 2-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Fehervar vs Ujpest (6) 1-1
Italian Serie A:
Genoa vs Juventus (6) 2-2
Brescia vs Cagliari (6) 1-1
Catania vs Bari (7) under 2.5 goals
Cesena vs Palermo (5) 1-1
Chievo Verona vs Internazionale (4) 0-0
Lecce vs Sampdoria (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Parma vs Lazio (4) 0-1
SSC Napoli vs Bologna (7) 2-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Monterrey vs Pachuca (5) 2-2
Santos Laguna vs Jaguares (7) 1-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
Groningen vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (7) 2-1
ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda (6) 1-0
Heerenveen vs Willem II (8) 2-0
FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen (5) 1-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Go Ahead Eagles vs Zwolle (6) draw no bet
Sparta Rotterdam vs Dordrecht ’90 (6) over 2.5 goals
RKC Waalwijk vs MVV Maastricht (8)
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Sol de America vs Rubio Nu (6) 1-1
Sportivo Trinidense vs Sport Colombia (5) 1-0
Sportivo Luqueno vs Tacuary (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Guarani Asuncion vs Olimpia Asuncion (6) under 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Peruvian Primera Division:
Alianza Atletico vs Juan Aurich (5) 1-1
Universidad San Martin vs Inti Gas (8) 2-0
Melgar FBC vs Leon de Huanuco (4) 1-0
Alianza Lima vs Total Chalaco (7) 2-0
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Wisla Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin (8) 2-1
GKS Belchatow vs Polonia Warsaw (5) 1-1
Romanian Liga:
Sportul Studentesc vs Vaslui (4) 0-1
Poli Timisoara vs Otelul Galati (6) 2-1
Serbian Super Liga:
Jagodina vs Rad Belgrade (6) 2-1
Red Star Belgrade vs Borac Cacak (7) 1-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Osasuna vs Sporting Gijon (6) under 2.5 goals
Espanyol vs Hercules Alicante (7) 2-1
Levante vs Racing Santander (5) under 2.5 goals
Deportivo La Coruna vs Malaga (6) 2-1
Sevilla CF vs Real Mallorca (7) over 2.5 goals
Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid (4) 1-0, draw no bet
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Deportivo Xerez vs Real Valladolid (5)
Cordoba vs Villarreal II (6)
Numancia vs Granada (6)
Celta de Vigo vs Albacete (6)
Tenerife vs Alcorcon (5)
Swiss Challenge League:
Lausanne Sports vs Locarno (8) -1.5 handicap
Turkish Super Lig:
Antalyaspor vs Gaziantepspor (5) 2-1
Trabzonspor vs Eskisehirspor (8) 2-0
Ankaragucu vs Istanbul BB (5) 0-1, draw no bet
Kayserispor vs Galatasaray (6) 2-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Metalurg Donetsk vs Tavriya Simferopol (3) 1-2, draw no bet
Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon Kiev (5) 1-1
Dynamo Kiev vs Metalist Kharkiv (4) 1-1
Metalurg Zaporizhya vs Karpaty Lviv (5) 1-1
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Illichivets Mariupol (6) 1-0
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Montevideo Wanderers vs River Plate Montevideo (5) 1-0
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Danubio (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
El Tanque Sisley vs Cerro (6) 2-1
Central Espanol vs Tacuarembo (7) 1-0
Liverpool Montevideo vs Miramar Misiones (7) 2-0
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Estudiantes de Merida vs Deportivo Lara (5) 1-0
Caracas vs Deportivo Petare (7) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Yaracuyanos vs Atletico El Vigia (6) 2-1
Monagas SC vs Mineros de Guayana (5) over 2.5 goals
Atletico Venezuela vs Deportivo Anzoategui (5) 0-1, draw no bet
Trujillanos vs Aragua (6) 2-1
Deportivo Tachira vs Zulia (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!