Sport Recife vs Chapecoense
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Today’s free tip is in the Brazilian Serie A game between Sport Recife and Chapecoense.
Five defeats plus one draw from their past six games suggests that Sport Recife are the kind of team to avoid backing. To me, this is the kind of team that follows very clear patterns, though. They’re a team to oppose when they’re away from home and a team to trust to win when they’re at home. Much like other fighter clubs like Bahia and Vitoria, Sport Recife know the value of a home win. They know it’s their home form that keeps them up, year after year, which is why I trust them more in such matches – they simply work harder then.
Of their past six disappointments, four have been away from home – big surprise, huh? The two home games were against Fluminense and Gremio, both of which are better than they are, so I can’t really claim to be surprised by Sport Recife losing one and drawing the other. It happens. In general, though, Sport Recife will beat most similar level or weaker teams when hosting them on their rock-bed of a pitch. To be fair, even good teams are expected to struggle in Recife – and they generally do. Nobody hammers this team at the Adelmar da Costa Carvalho. Indeed, Fluminense were the first team to actually win against the home team in Recife this season, which is not something I expect to see happening on a regular basis.
Now, in terms of quality, Sport Recife are a limited side. They’re not a rich nor a huge team so if they get a good player, it’s generally because he’s either fallen upon hard times, he’s past his best, or because they’ve managed to loan a talented youngster. That’s why they’ve got Michel Bastos and Marlone in midfield. To get into this team, however, you’ve got to work hard. That’s the staple requirement. If you do, then Sport Recife will give most players an opportunity to represent them, really. There’s a good team spirit in this camp, and they don’t let their heads drop easily. I don’t believe that this run they’re on will hurt them too much here; they’re used to this sort of thing. I think they’ll be back to their best tonight and if they are, they should beat Chapecoense.
The visitors are best known throughout the world for the horrible plane crash that happened in which the vast majority of their squad died. It was a tragic reminder that there really aren’t any fairy-tales in life. If my memory serves me correctly, the Brazilian FA generously offered Chapecoense a three-year immunity from relegation whilst they rebuilt their squad but the club refused. On one hand, I admire their desire to honour the club by earning their spot in Serie A but in the cold light of day, I think they should have accepted. You can’t have a solid foundation to work with when most players in your squad are loanees, and that’s still the case with the struggling away team. I wouldn’t wish relegation upon them for a second but I think it’s a very real danger that they face this season because they lack quality.
Unlike their hosts, Chapecoense don’t have a lot of experience of playing at this level. They’re a team that has always relied upon playing good football and believing in themselves rather than playing chess matches to decide how to stay up. They’re going to need their individuals to bail them out if they’re to manage it, which is basically Wellington Paulista, Canteros, and Marcio Araujo. The togetherness in this squad is impressive and yet no less than I expected from such a proud team. They’re not easy to beat. However, at the same time, they just don’t score enough goals. This approach might work well when it comes to upsetting the apple cart from time to time but when it comes to playing in difficult games, I don’t think it’s enough. I don’t think they’ve got enough know-how when it comes to facing teams like Sport Recife away from home so I doubt their chances tonight.
I think it’ll be a tight and feisty affair but it’s one that Sport Recife tend to win. If they fail to win, then they’ve got to turn things around in tough games against Sao Paulo and Santos – unlikely – so I expect a very focused display from the hosts tonight. If so, they’ve got enough streetwise skills about them to pick up a potentially invaluable three points. My call is the home win.
Verdict: Sport Recife to win at 4/5.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna
LASK Linz vs St. Polten
Hartberg vs Admira Wacker
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
RSC Anderlecht vs KV Oostende
Racing Genk vs Sint-Truiden
Royal Excel Mouscron vs Club Brugge
Brazilian Serie A:
Parana vs Ceara
America Mineiro vs Palmeiras
Vitoria vs Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama
Fluminense vs Bahia
Sport Recife vs Chapecoense
Bulgarian A PFG:
Botev Vratsa vs Levski Sofia
CSKA Sofia vs Dunav 2010
Croatian Prva Liga:
NK Osijek vs Rudes
Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
Czech Republic HET Liga:
Karvina vs Mlada Boleslav
Sparta Prague vs Slovacko
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens vs Hobro
OB Odense vs FC Copenhagen
Brondby vs FC Nordsjaelland
English Community Shield:
Chelsea vs Manchester City
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Nomme Kalju vs Tallinna Kalev
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn
FCI Levadia Tallinn vs Tammeka
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
HB Torshavn vs Skala
KI Klaksvik vs 07 Vestur Sorvagur
TB/FCS/Royn vs B36 Torshavn
NSI Runavik vs EB/Streymur
Vikingur Gotu vs AB Argir
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
KuPS Kuopio vs TPS Turku
Ilves vs FC Honka Espoo
FC Lahti vs PS Kemi Kings
Finnish Ykkonen:
Klubi-04 vs KPV Kokkola
German Bundesliga 2:
Magdeburg vs St. Pauli
Union Berlin vs Erzgebirge Aue
Darmstadt 98 vs Paderborn 07
Heidenheim vs Arminia Bielefeld
Hungarian Liga 1:
Ujpest vs Varda SE
Budapest Honved vs Paksi SE
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Tromso vs Haugesund
Stabaek vs Sarpsborg 08
Valerenga Oslo vs Sandefjord
Kristiansund vs Odd
Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt
Lillestrom vs Molde FK
Russian Premier League:
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs FK Orenburg
CSKA Moscow vs FK Rostov
Akhmat Grozny vs Yenisey
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Hammarby vs Trelleborg FF
Orebro vs BK Hacken Goteborg
Swiss Super League:
Young Boys Bern vs FC Zurich
Sion vs Neuchatel Xamax
St. Gallen vs Thun
Swiss Challenge League:
FC Schaffhausen vs Vaduz
Enjoy your free betting tips!