Villarreal CF vs Real Valladolid
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Today’s free tip is in the Spanish Primera Liga encounter between Villarreal CF and Real Valladolid.
It’s getting harder to make any money out of betting on Spanish football nowadays, in my opinion. The bigger/better clubs aren’t as reliable as before, largely because their opponents are getting better/smarter, and the majority of the teams in the Primera Liga can beat one another at the drop of a hat. Still, I believe there’s a touch of value to squeeze out of the game at Estadio de la Ceramica (I much preferred it when it was called El Madrigal, personally) today, hence the tip. Let’s see what Lady Luck has in store for us!
My only concern with handicapping a Calleja team is that they absolutely cannot defend. That’s why they don’t try to. Any team that places them under a sustained period of pressure will create chances and then will usually score. They just don’t have good centre-backs, Villarreal CF, and the only good one they’ve got – Albiol – is hardly outstanding, and is getting on a bit now. Furthermore, the continued absence of holding midfielder Caseres makes it close to impossible for this team to keep opponents out. Christ, they’ve had to play Zambo Anguissa on three occasions this season, which tells you the full story as he’s bloody useless. Powerful, but useless. So if a clean sheet happens, great – don’t expect it, though, and count your lucky stars if it does.
However, what Calleja does have is an attack that works really well. It’s still a bit dysfunctional for my liking but with a class act like Cazorla pinging balls around whatever he wishes, and an experienced line-leader like Moreno darting around ahead of him, Villarreal CF have a cracking foundation on which to hurt teams. Considering that this has happened with club legend Bruno Soriano having basically been phased out of the team, it’s even more impressive that El Submarino Amarillo are scoring as freely as they are.
Villarreal CF should have more top performers than those two, though. They’ve got them in names but not in terms of displays. Colombian forward Bacca is a good example; his confidence appears to be all but gone nowadays. However, with Nigerian wonderkid Chukwueze looking pretty unplayable at the moment, Toko Ekambi’s movement and Moi Gomez in fine form, Villarreal CF are getting by very well. I honestly don’t see things lasting for Villarreal CF because there really isn’t anywhere near enough organisation at this club. However, with things as they currently are, I trust the home team to do a good enough job today to overcome Real Valladolid, one way or another.
Beating Real Valladolid requires a lot of effort though; that much is clear. Real Madrid discovered that a couple of weeks back, letting their guard slip only for one of the Primera Liga’s more unpopular teams to score a last-ditch equaliser at the Santiago Bernabeu, busting coupons up and down the country. They’re a tough cookie, Real Valladolid – and they have to be. In terms of quality, they’re one of the weaker Primera Liga outfits so it’s imperative that they outfight their opponents or they’ll find themselves in a world of trouble. They do have some decent players, to be fair, but not as many as most at this level.
However, when it comes to organisation, Real Valladolid are a-ok. They know when to sit, when to press, and how to frustrate teams without being overly dirty. As a unit, they’re really impressive. I’d happily argue that they hit their maximum potential more often than most at this level, although admittedly most teams have better squads! The style of this game will suit Real Valladolid too; they excel when playing on the break, and Villarreal CF will 100% attack them, which makes me believe we’ll see an open and entertaining affair here.
Outscoring Villarreal CF, though – that’s something I really can’t see Real Valladolid doing. I believe that’s what it’ll come down to as well. As annoying as Real Valladolid can be, I just don’t see them being able to handle this fast, dangerous Villarreal CF attack. Therefore, the bare minimum I expect from this game is a home win, which would activate the insurance aspect of my tip. Therefore,, I think it’s worth trying the -1 Asian Handicap because of how easy Villarreal CF find it to score goals. Make no mistake, though – it’s going to require the home team to not stop running and pressing here. Real Valladolid will have them if they stop.
Anyway, I have faith in Villarreal CF, based on their recent form, hence my decision to get involved.
Verdict: Villarreal CF to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 21/20.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Mattersburg vs Sturm Graz
Admra Wacker vs St. Polten
Swarovski Tirol vs Rapid Vienna
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Sporting Charleroi vs Sint-Truiden
Antwerp vs Cercle Brugge
Waasland-Beveren vs Royal Excel Mouscron
Racing Genk vs KV Oostende
Brazilian Serie A:
Botafogo vs Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo
Corinthians vs Bahia
Santos vs Gremio
Bulgarian A PFG:
Botev Vratsa vs Dunav 2010
Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia
Croatian Prva Liga:
Slaven Koprivnica vs Gorica
Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb
Czech Republic Liga 1:
Slovacko vs Teplice
Opava vs Slovan Liberec
Marila Pribram vs Karvina
Ceske Budejovice vs Viktoria Plzen
English Premier League:
Leicester City vs Tottenham Hotspur
Burnley vs Norwich City
Everton vs Sheffield United
Manchester City vs Watford
Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Paide vs Tulevik
Nomme Kalju vs Tallinna Kalev
FCI Levadia Tallinn vs Trans Narva
Faroese Logmanssteypid:
Vikingur Gotu vs HB Torshavn
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Honka Espoo vs HJK
KPV vs RoPS
HIFK vs SJK
Finnish Ykkonen:
Jaro Pietarsaari vs TPV
MyPa vs KTP
MuSa vs AC Oulu
Kajaani vs Ekenas IF
French Ligue 1:
Olympique de Marseille vs Montpellier HSC
Stade de Reims vs AS Monaco
Metz vs Amiens SC
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Stade Brestois
Nimes Olympique vs Toulouse
OGC Nice vs Dijon FCO
German Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich vs Koln
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
Hertha Berlin vs Paderborn 07
SC Freiburg vs Augsburg
Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga 2:
VfB Stuttgart vs Greuther Furth
Nurnberg vs Karlsruher SC
SV Sandhausen vs VfL Bochum
Wehen Wiesbaden vs Arminia Bielefeld
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Kfar Saba
Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv
Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Beitar Jerusalem
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa
Italian Serie A:
Udinese vs Brescia
Juventus vs Hellas Verona
AC Milan vs Internazionale
Italian Serie B:
Benevento vs Cosenza
Cremonese vs Crotone
Empoli vs Cittadella
Juve Stabia vs Ascoli
Livorno vs Pordenone
Pescara vs Virtus Entella
Spezia vs Perugia
Chievo Verona vs Pisa
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Rieterai vs Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Zalgiris vs Suduva Marijampole
Dutch Eredivisie:
Sparta Rotterdam vs RKC Waalwijk
Willem II vs VVV Venlo
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle
Vitesse Arnhem vs Fortuna Sittard
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Brann Bergen vs Haugesund
Portuguese Liga 1:
Belenenses vs Rio Ave
Moreirense vs SL Benfica
Portuguese Liga 2:
UD Oliveirense vs FC Porto II
Chaves vs Sporting Covilha
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Penafiel
Academico Viseu vs Farense
Russian Premier League:
Akhmat Grozny vs Krylya Sovetov Samara
Zenit St. Petersburg vs Rubin Kazan
Tambov vs FK Rostov
Spanish Primera Liga:
Villarreal CF vs Real Valladolid
Levante CF vs Eibar
Atletico Madrid vs Celta de Vigo
Granada vs Barcelona CF
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Falkenberg vs Ostersunds FK
IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro
Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken Goteborg
IFK Goteborg vs Sirius
Swiss Super League:
Neuchatel Xamax vs FC Sion
St. Gallen vs Servette
Swiss Challenge League:
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Chiasso
Winterthur vs FC Wil
Aarau vs FC Schaffhausen
Turkish Super Lig:
Kasimpasa vs Antalyaspor
Kayserispor vs Denizlispor
Fenerbahce vs Ankaragucu
Enjoy your free betting tips!