Uniao de Leiria vs SL Benfica
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Liga Sagres game between minnows Uniao de Leiria and SL Benfica.
The hosts are in for a long night here, in my view. They’re a notoriously defensive side and that’s precisely what we’ll see here, I’m sure. However, they’ve elected to have a rather large pitch this season, which really doesn’t suit their defensive style. That’s one of the reasons why only Olhanense and Pacos de Ferreira are the only sides to ship more goals at home this season than themselves. They lost their only good players last season and have a complete lack of firepower so to say that I expect them to lose this game comfortably would be an understatement.
Benfica are by far the better side here; it’s pointless for me to go further into that as we all know it. -1.5 handicaps are a big risk on the road though, so why Benfica tonight? Well, apart from that they’re the better side, it’s hard to see them conceding against an atrocious Leiria attack, especially now Luisao is back at the heart of the Benfica defence. It’s unusual for Benfica to not concede in games like these, admittedly, but Leiria are so woeful in the final third that they really should manage it here. Benfica have more than enough firepower to break through the stubborn resistance of their hosts here and given that their fans will outnumber Leiria’s by about sixteen to one in this game, you really have to think that Benfica will do the business tonight.
For me, the -1.5 handicap for Benfica is well worth a bet at 10/11.
Verdict: SL Benfica to beat the -1.5 handicap at 10/11.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Aris Salonika vs PAS Giannina – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 8/5.
I’ll almost always take Salonika sides when playing at home in the Super League and this game today is no exception. Statistics-wise, you could be forgiven for thinking that Aris are a rather inconsistent side and I suppose you would have a point, really. How a side can leap from dominant home displays to inept away displays so consistently must be due to a problem somewhere.
However, one thing Aris do consistently produce is strong home displays. They’ve got really good support, which helps, and often inspires Aris to wins. They’re not the most prolific of sides but they’re usually composed enough at the back and they’ve got the players to win the game so the very least I expect from this game is the insurance to kick in and for the punter to get their money back if the bet doesn’t win. Although they’ve had enough of attacker Castillo and are trying to force him out of the club, Aris still have a good attack and that really should show today. Aris have recently sacked their manager so they have two caretaker bosses for this game but the support of this club is phenomenal so I don’t expect the coach’s absence to affect Aris Salonika adversely here.
Visitors PAS Giannina are a particularly poor side and I’d not hesitate in labelling them as the worst side in the division if Doxa Dramas weren’t in it. Away from home, PAS Giannina show no adventure when attacking and concede goals far too easily. There are some very experienced players in their team, which helps, but the advancing years of a lot of their players makes pace a particularly sore area for PAS Giannina. I mean, striker Ibrahima Bagayoko is a classic example of that. He’s a good striker but he’s next to no pace about him nowadays so it’s no surprise that PAS Giannina don’t score in away games as he has no support and he’s not really capable of doing it on his own nowadays. In a tough game like this, I expect the Ivorian hitman to be even more isolated than normal so it’s all down to Aris here, really.
The absolute minimum that I expect from Aris today is a home win but I do feel that the -1 Asian Handicap is priced far too generously to ignore here. It may not come in but as I said earlier in the preview – I don’t expect the tip to lose so I feel it’s worth a punt here as Aris are more than good enough to win this one comfortably as long as their coach being sacked doesn’t affect them much!
Verdict: Aris Salonika to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 8/5.
Villarreal CF vs Valencia CF – away win at 7/5.
This game is a Valenciana derby so do approach it with caution!
However, with El Madrigal having not witnessed such an unimpressive Villarreal side for some time, you have to favour the visitors today. You can say what you like about Villarreal welcoming back Nilmar etc. but it’s not goalscoring that I’ve had a problem with this season in regard to Villarreal – it’s their completely ineffectual tactical approach. They don’t defend well enough nowadays and their creativity has stalled ever since Santi Cazorla left the club, which isn’t a great surprise.
What people tend to forget is that Villarreal actually aren’t a big club. They were extremely lucky to have Pellegrini steering them at the beginning because he made them the force that they are today. Without him, they do struggle but you’d imagine that they’d have enough quality to at least maintain a portion of their old style. However, they’re just not showing it and as dangerous as their strikers can unquestionably be, I just don’t rate them as a force at the present time.
Now, it may be that the winter break has done the hosts some good or possibly decreased the focus of the visitors. However, that’s my only real concern regarding Valencia’s chances of winning this one so the away win does appeal to me in this derby. Valencia have a better balance to their team away from home as they counter-attack very well and they’ve got some experienced strikers to do the damage for them. Defensively, Valencia do concern me sometimes but their performances on the road are generally very strong and thus I rate their chances of winning this one quite highly today.
Again, please be careful with your stakes as this is a derby. However, I cannot overlook the generous odds on Valencia winning this one as they look a better side than Villarreal this season so my call is the away win here.
Verdict: Valencia CF to win at 7/5.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory (7) over 2.5 goals
Sydney FC vs Central Coast Mariners (6) 1-2
Gold Coast United vs Melbourne Heart (5) 1-1
Cypriot Division 1:
Enosis Neon Paralimni vs AEL Limassol (7) 0-0
Alki Larnaca vs APOEL Nicosia (8) 0-2
English FA Cup:
Manchester City vs Manchester United (5) 2-1
Sheffield Wednesday vs West Ham United (4) 1-1
Chelsea vs Portsmouth (8) 2-1
Peterborough United vs Sunderland (6) over 2.5 goals
Greek Super League:
Xanthi vs PAOK Salonika (6) 0-0
Aris Salonika vs PAS Giannina (8) 2-0
Atromitos vs OFI Crete (7) 1-0
Panathinaikos vs Kerkyra (6) 2-1
Doxa Dramas vs Olympiakos Piraeus (8) 0-2
Italian Serie A:
Udinese vs Cesena (8) 2-0
Atalanta Bergamo vs AC Milan (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Bologna vs Catania (6) 1-0
Cagliari vs Genoa (5) 1-1
Lecce vs Juventus (7) over 2.5 goals
Novara vs Fiorentina (5) 2-1
AS Roma vs Chievo Verona (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Palermo vs SSC Napoli (5) 1-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Toluca vs Estudiantes Tecos (7) 1-0
Puebla vs Atlas (7) 2-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Maritimo Funchal vs Olhanense (7) 1-0
Rio Ave vs Pacos de Ferreira (6) 1-0
Gil Vicente vs CD Nacional de Madeira (6) 0-0
Uniao de Leiria vs SL Benfica (8) 0-2
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Feirense (6) 1-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Sevilla CF (4) 0-0
Getafe vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (5) 1-1
Villarreal CF vs Valencia CF (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Real Betis Balompie vs Sporting Gijon (4) 2-2
Espanyol vs Barcelona (8) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Alcorcon vs Almeria (5) over 2.5 goals
Cordoba vs Girona (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Karabukspor vs Genclerbirligi (6) 0-0
Manisaspor vs Orduspor (5) 2-2
Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor (5) 1-1
Eskisehirspor vs Sivasspor (6) 1-0
Ankaragucu vs Besiktas JK (6) 0-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!