Almeria vs Villarreal CF
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Primera Liga encounter between Almeria and Villarreal CF in Andaluscia. The hosts are already relegated and have nothing to play for here whereas visitors Villarreal CF need just a win to guarantee themselves European football next season – will they have the stamina to do it?
There’s no denying that Villarreal have looked a bit tired lately, and it’s understandable. Boss Garrido doesn’t have the experience of his predecessors when it comes to balancing a squad for the season and long-term injuries to the likes of Senna have really stretched the team, hence some bizarre displays lately. Nonetheless, there’s no doubting their attacking credentials in Rossi and Nilmar, especially with Cani back on the flank, Cazorla drifting, and Senna pulling the strings. Left-back Capdevila is back for the, which actually adds a lot to their attacking game, bizarrely. They still miss Gonzalo and Lopez at the back but in games against Almeria, it’s simply a matter of who scores the most goals – defence rarely features in games like this!
Olabe’s Almeria have nothing to prove so I suspect we’ll see their usual free-flowing approach as they seek to impress their new boss ahead of life in the Segunda Liga next season. Almeria welcome back Piatti and Jakobsen from suspension to boost their attack and defence respectively but they do miss integral attacker Crusat and that will harm their game, although deadly threesome Piatti, Uche, and Ulloa are reunited for this game. Almeria’s weakness this season has always been defending, hence conceding an average of two goals per home game and thus winning just two home games this season. Almeria have lost seven games in a row as they head into this difficult game and as they’ve failed to score in their last four in a row, they’re bound to be demoralised so I don’t rate their chances here.
Villarreal should realistically have just enough for one final push here and they’ve definitely got the firepower to nick it. They’ve not done well away from home lately but we all know their capabilities. For me, I think Villarreal is priced a little longer than they should be at 7/10 so my call is the away win here.
Team news – Almeria miss Vargas, Fernandez, Crusat, and Feghouli whereas Villarreal CF miss Gonzalo, Oliva, and Angel Lopez.
Verdict: Villarreal CF to win at 7/10.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Wacker Innsbruck vs SV Ried – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Wacker Innsbruck have gone over 2.5 goals in six of their sixteen home games in the Bundesliga this season and four of those were against the “big four”. Nine out of Ried’s sixteen away games have gone under 2.5 goals. This is because neither side is an all-out-attack type of side – they’re both ruthlessly efficient and love to keep control of games and win via low-scoring margins. Defensively, Wacker Innsbruck are amongst the strongest in the Bundesliga when playing at home but as far as goalscoring goes, only the bottom two sides have scored less goals at home. Ried’s Spanish trio has improved their potency overall this season but they’re still not convincing on the road, finding it far too hard to score goals. Although this game unquestionably means a lot to Ried as they’re competing for a European place, I just don’t see how they’ll shatter this Wacker defence that has been so strong already this season. There’s no reason for the hosts to do anything but their usual cautious approach here and thus I have to take under 2.5 goals in this game as the price is way too generous to be overlooked.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
FC Minsk vs Gomel – home win at 6/5.
What.the.fuck?!
Ok, FC Minsk are having a hard time finding the net since Osipenko moved to Vorskla Poltava in Ukraine but those odds are a joke! FC Minsk are a top four side with a midfield containing Razin, Soro, and Voronkov! They signed Vasilyuk to replace Osipenko and atlhough he’s not as good as Osipenko, he’s a decent target man and will be a threat in due course. FC Minsk bolstered their defence as a whole with the acqusitions of ex-Dinamo Minsk duo Pavlyuchek (central defender) and Les’ko (goalkeeper), not to mention signing Osipovich from Shakhtyor Soligorsk! They also signed attacking midfielder Sashcheko from Belshina Bobriusk to improve their attacking options and are genuinely a top four side with this squad of players. They’ve not started their Vysshaya Liga campaign well, admittedly, but to price them at 6/5 here is outlandish! They’ve got some momentum leading them into this game following two impressive results, drawing 2-2 at Belshina Bobriusk before winning at Neman Grodno 0-1 so why they’re 6/5 here I’ll never know.
Gomel impressed me a lot with the manner of their promotion last season and their acquisitions pre-season but they’re not a great side. They’re a big side, they’re well-organised, and they work hard but they’re not anywhere near as good as the likes of FC Minsk, in my view. In fact, away from home, Gomel are pretty damn average, scoring twice in four away games, losing once and drawing three times along the way. Indeed, they lost 1-0 at Vitebsk last match and although on the current Vysshaya Liga table that’s not a bad result, I think it is a bad result quality-wise as Vitebsk are particularly weak following their player sales pre-season. Gomel do have some experienced Vysshaya Liga players in their squad and I’m confident they’ll beat the drop but this is the kind of away game they’ll really struggle in, in my opinion.
View Gomel as you would have viewed Belshina Bobriusk at the start of last season to understand why they’re playing as well as they are and why you can expect them to falter in a few months time. This side isn’t potent enough to win away games in the Vysshaya Liga, in my view. FC Minsk are easing into their groove and again, how they’re 6/5 here is beyond me, whether they win or not!
Verdict: FC Minsk to win at 6/5.
OGC Nice vs Arles – under 2.5 goals at 7/10.
No less than nine out of Arles’ last thirteen away games have gone under 2.5 goals so why not again today? It’s generally the likes of Lyon or Lille that destroys Arles because nobody else really has the firepower to do it and Nice certainly don’t since they sold Remy at the start of the season. Nice need the win and will probably get it but there’s no value in that selection, to me. Arles have held better side than Nice away from home lately with draws at Girondins de Bordeaux and AS Nancy-Lorraine so a 0-0 isn’t impossible here, even without the suspended Balde at the back for Arles. Arles have done so badly this year because they don’t score goals, not because everyone destroys them and I’d be amazed to see Nice destroy them, to be frank. Nice have scored more than one goal in a home game on just five occasions in Ligue 1 this season – that’s five out of seventeen home games, which explains why they average scoring a goal per home game. Don’t be fooled by the Ligue 1 table here – Arles may not score many goals at all but they’re rarely destroyed. For me, there’s far more value in under 2.5 goals at 7/10 than the home win here and to be honest, the odds are too long for this selection – it should be 6/10 or shorter in my view.
Team news – OGC Nice miss Fae whereas Arles miss Balde.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 7/10.
Sochaux vs AS Monaco – home win at 6/5.
Sochaux have won this fixture for two seasons in a row now and I don’t see why that can’t continue this season. Sochaux have won an excellent ten out of seventeen Ligue 1 home games already this season whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per home game and it generally takes a very good display from a side to leave here with anything but a defeat. Just take a look at who has managed to avoid defeat here already this season – Lyon, Marseille, Montpellier, Lille, Auxerre, Bordeaux, and Toulouse – some of the better sides in the division. Sochaux have gone unbeaten in six games, winning four times along the way, the most recent of which was a very unexpected 0-4 win at Bordeaux so morale is sky-high currently. European is still on Sochaux’s radar, faint though their hopes are, so I expect them to give Monaco a rough ride here.
Monaco aren’t a bad side, to be honest. They’re not in the heady days of Henry, Trezeguet, Legwinski, Barthez, and Djetou nowadays, for example. However, what they are is a solid defensive unit and although they’re utterly hopeless in attack without Korean attacker Park (who is a doubt today), they’re generally good at keeping sides out. With Hansson and Puygrenier united in the centre of defence, Monaco are generally impregnable in the air, especially with outstanding holding midfielder sat in front of them. However, the problem with Monaco’s man-mountain pairing in the centre of defence is that they’re both very slow and Sochaux will look to counter that. Monaco have lost at Nice lately so losing here is far from unrealistic!
The big question is do Sochaux have the pace to trouble Monaco’s defence? My answer is “yes”. They’ve got more than enough in Maiga and Brown and it really should show here. Given the immense run of form that Sochaux have currently, there has to be value in the home win at 6/5.
Team news – AS Monaco have doubts over Park.
Verdict: Sochaux to win at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
BATE Borisov, Shakhtyor Soligorsk, Liepajas Metalurgs, Ekranas Panevezys, Armed Forces, Barcelona, Real Betis Balompie, Real Valladolid.
Recommended bets:
Villarreal CF, Real Betis Balompie, and BATE Borisov at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa Libertadores:
Penarol vs Universidad Catolica (6) 1-1
Once Caldas Manizales vs Santos (6) 2-1
Asian Champions League:
Gamba Osaka vs Tianjin Teda (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Jeju United vs Melbourne Victory (4) 1-1
Hangzhou Lucheng vs FC Seoul (5) 0-1
Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Al Sadd (4) 2-1
Esteghlal vs Al Nasr (6) over 2.5 goals
Al Ain vs Nagoya Grampus (5) 0-0
Al Jazira vs Sepahan (5) 1-2
Al Hilal vs Al Gharafa (6) 1-0
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wacker Innsbruck vs SV Ried (6) 1-1
Wiener Neustadt vs LASK Linz (7) over 2.5 goals
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Rapid Vienna vs SV Mattersburg (6) 2-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Torpedo Zhodino vs Dinamo Minsk (7) 1-1
Vitebsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk (5) 0-0
Belshina Bobriusk vs BATE Borisov (8) 1-2
FC Minsk vs Gomel (7) 2-0
Dinamo Brest vs Neman Grodno (5) 2-1
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Dnepr Mogilev (8) 2-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht vs AA Gent (6) 1-0
Lokeren vs Standard de Liege (7) 1-2
Colombian Primera A:
Deportivo Pereira vs Itagui Ditaires (6) 1-0
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Deportes Quindio (7) 2-0
Envigado vs Deportes Tolima (6) 1-1
La Equidad Bogota vs Real Cartagena (5) 2-1
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Boyaca Chico (7) 2-0
Atletico Huila vs Independiente Medellin (5) 1-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Liga de Quito vs Emelec Guayaquil (7) 1-0
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
HB Torshavn vs Vikingur Gotu (5) 1-1
07 Vestur Sorvagur vs B71 Sandur (6) 1-2
B68 Toftir vs B36 Torshavn (5) 1-1
EB/Streymur vs KI Klaksvik (7) 2-0
French Ligue 1:
Auxerre vs Olympique Lyonnais (6) 1-1
Racing Club Lens vs Girondins de Bordeaux (6) 1-0
Montpellier HSC vs Lorient (7) 1-1
OGC Nice vs Arles (6) 1-0
Stade Rennais vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (4) 1-1
Sochaux vs AS Monaco (7) 1-0
Toulouse vs Valenciennes (6) 2-1
Olympique de Marseille vs Stade Brestois (7) 2-0
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Ujpest vs Kecskemeti TE (6) 2-1
Fehervar vs Kaposvari Rakoczi (4) 1-1
Gyori ETO FC vs Budapest Honved (5) 0-0
MTK Budapest vs Szombathelyi Haladas (5) 0-1
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Vikingur Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik (7) 1-2
Keflavik vs FH Hafnarfjordur (6) 0-1
Fylkir Reykjavik vs Fram Reykjavik (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Breidablik Kopavogur vs UMF Grindavik (6) 1-1
Thor Akureyi vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (5) over 2.5 goals
Valur Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (6) 1-1
Latvian Virsliga:
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Gulbene 2005 (9) -1.5 handicap
Skonto Riga vs FK Ventspils (5) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
Lithuanian A Lyga:
FBK Kaunas vs Banga Gargzdai (6) 0-0
Mazeikiai vs Kruoja Pakruojis (7) 1-0
Dainava vs Siauliai (6) 0-1
Atlantas vs Klaipeda (5) 2-1
Ekranas Panevezys vs Tauras Taurage (8) 2-0
Suduva Marijampole vs Zalgiris Vilnius (7) 2-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Arka Gdynia vs Ruch Chorzow (5) 2-1
Widzew Lodz vs GKS Belchatow (6) 1-0
Wisla Krakow vs Lech Poznan (6) 2-1
Korona Kielce vs Lechia Gdansk (6) 2-1
Polish Liga 1:
Kolejarz Stroze vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski (5)
Nieciecza vs Katowice (4)
Ruch Radzionkow vs Flota Swinoujscie (5)
Gorzow Wielkopoloski vs Pogon Szczecin (5)
Kluczbork vs Dolcan Zabki (5)
Bogdanka Leczna vs Warta Poznan (6)
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala vs Piast Gliwice (7)
Sandecja Nowy Sacz vs Odra Wodzislaw (6)
Gornik Polkowice vs LKS Lodz (5)
Scottish Premier League:
Hearts vs Celtic (6) 1-2
Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Hibernian (6) 2-1
Motherwell vs Kilmarnock (5) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Tanjong Pagar vs Armed Forces (9) -1.5 handicap
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Zlate Moravce vs DAC Dunajska Streda (7) 1-0
Kosice vs Dubnica (4) 1-1
MSK Zilina vs Tatran Presov (5) 0-0
Dukla Banska Bystrica vs Senica (6) 0-1
Nitra vs Ruzomberok (6) 2-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Almeria vs Villarreal CF (7) over 2.5 goals
Real Sociedad vs Real Zaragoza (5) 1-1
Levante vs Barcelona (8) over 2.5 goals
Espanyol vs Valencia CF (5) 2-2
Hercules Alicante vs Real Mallorca (6) 2-1
Osasuna vs Sevilla CF (5) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Recreativo de Huelva vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (5) under 2.5 goals
Real Valladolid vs Cordoba (8)
Albacete vs Numancia (6)
Ponferradina vs Barcelona II (6)
Real Betis Balompie vs Tenerife (8)
Swiss Super League:
Bellinzona vs St.Gallen (4) 1-2
Neuchatel Xamax vs Thun (5) 1-2
FC Zurich vs Basel (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Swiss Challenge League:
Biel-Bienne vs SC Kriens (5)
Lugano vs Servette (6) over 2.5 goals
Stade Nyonnais vs Lausanne Sports (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
FC Schaffhausen vs Aarau (6)
Winterthur vs Vaduz (6)
Wohlen vs Wil (5)
Yverdon Sport vs Locarno (5) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!