Barcelona vs Real Madrid
FreeWell, it’s finally here – the Primera Liga “El Clasico” between Barcelona and Real Madrid! Everyone has been talking up a fabulous game between two massive clubs with fantastic attacking players and I hope they’re right, too. However, call me pessimistic but I’m expecting a somewhat dour game here and I’ll explain why.
On one hand we have mighty Barcelona, who arguably play the finest football in Europe on their day. They’ve been a little weak this season but have really turned it on their past few games and thus bring good momentum into this encounter.
On the other hand, we have giants Real Madrid, who play some of the most efficient football in Europe on their day. They’ve been getting stronger and stronger as the weeks go by without necessarily playing well as Jose Mourinho truly gets his feet under the table at the Santiago Bernabeu and I expect another efficient display from Mourinho’s men today.
So, yeah – Barcelona definitely play the better fooball out of these two sides. What else would you expect? Playing the “beautiful game” is part of the upbringing of every Barcelona youngster and their squad is littered with home-grown talent, hence their relentless Catalan enthusiasm in each game. This has been Barcelona’s way for years and they won’t change it for anyone. As admirable as that is, a lack of Plan B is a big problem against big sides and I think that’s partially what we’ll see tonight.
Real Madrid have been forged on money alone for some time now so it’s no surprise that Mourinho inherited a team of individuals with little cohesion and little sense of tactics. However, he’s set about them and he’s done the impossible by making Madrid very hard to beat. Madrid don’t have great defenders but the way Mourinho makes them play is very efficient. Therefore, for the first time in years, Madrid bring a side to face Barcelona that actually has the capacity to stop them.
It’s hard to judge how much these two sides have or haven’t improved from the previous season because the only real test either side properly gets is when they play each other. The biggest change either side has made was Barcelona signing David Villa, in my opinion. Initially, I thought it was a great move as sides wouldn’t know whether to expect him or Ibrahimovic but then they went and loaned/sold Ibrahimovic…which didn’t make sense to me. His style doesn’t suit a 4-5-1, admittedly, but the deal doesn’t make sense because Ibrahimovic is a very, very clever player – he unlocks defences and Barcelona need that. Villa is a more outright striker and gives Barcelona more goal threat but for me, Barcelona really need both and I think they’ve fucked up by selling Ibrahimovic long-term.
The above leaves Barcelona more susceptible than normal to tight defences and low back lines. David Villa is a short striker, to be blunt, so crosses are no good. His off-the-ball movement is good but that’s all Barcelona can hope for here and I think that’s far easier for Mourinho’s men to defend against than the unpredictable Ibrahimovic, who was also taller than Villa and thus a greater threat in the air. Barcelona can monopolise possession against anyone but they often struggle to break down defences if the side that is defending knows how to defend. Spanish sides in general can’t do that but look at when Barcelona meet Chelsea or Manchester United, for example – they have the ball but generally don’t do much with it due to good defending. That is what I personally feel we’re looking at tonight because Mourinho doesn’t play Spanish football; he plays tactical football and he does it bloody well. Everything you’ve seen or thought about this game – he already knows. From the length of the grass to the mind games – Mourinho just knows and that’s why Madrid are a threat here.
Mourinho set the mind games ball rolling earlier this season by suggesting Villa was a bad buy for Barcelona due to him not scoring many goals and by suggesting sides put less effort in against Barcelona. The Barcelona players have said that his mind games don’t affect them but they do – perhaps not all of them but it will affect some of them and Mourinho knows it. He spent a long time at Barcelona – he knows how this club operates and knows how to defend against them too. He guided an ageing Internazionale to victory over two legs against Barcelona in a fairly comfortable fashion by defending immensely and there was little Barcelona could do about it. Lionel Messi is a fantastic player but there’s only so much even he can do if he’s got three men on him whenever he has the ball. If you limit him, you limit Barcelona to “Plan B” tactics that they simply don’t have and that’s what Mourinho will try to do tonight, in my opinion – he’s not stupid enough to take Barcelona on in an open game!
The difference between the Madrid side he has now and the Internazionale side he had last year is that his defence isn’t as good but his attack is much better. To defend like Mourinho’s sides do, you need quick counter-attacking players and they don’t come much quicker or better than Cristiano Ronaldo, who will probably be bearing a grudge against Barcelona for the UEFA Champions League Final defeat that he suffered against Barcelona whilst playing for Manchester United – those kind of memories just don’t fade. Aside from him, Madrid also boast Higuain to assist him and those two are a real handful together so I think Barcelona have to be very careful tonight.
Basically, I don’t think we’ll see a great game here at all. I think we’ll see two sides that are afraid to lose the game more than anything. Madrid should defend it and they’ll probably have a lot of joy whilst doing so as Barcelona are very predictable – it’s just one thing to know what will happen and another being able to deal with it! If Barcelona score – and they are capable of doing so if Messi is given space – then I don’t think we’ll see the usual Barcelona push for a second – I think Guardiola will tell them to keep the ball and hold the win. I expect the exact same if Madrid score too, which makes sense really, so I don’t see many goals here at all – just like this game at Nou Camp last season.
Given the amount of quality players on display, you must approach this bet with caution as it could be 4-4 and nobody would bat an eyelid. However, for me, the only bet that interests me tonight is this game going under 2.5 goals at 5/4. I envision Madrid keeping it tight and keeping Barcelona out whilst hitting them with potentially successful counter-attacks. If I had to pick a winner then I’d side with Barcelona but I wouldn’t touch the 1×2 market, to be honest, although I do have a theory that Mourinho may use this game as leverage (if Madrid loses) to back up his claims earlier this season of Madrid “needing another striker” so that is in the back of my mind too. Either way – I’ll be surprised to see this game go over 2.5 goals because I can’t see it being an open game.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/4 – why not bet on this game now at Bwin?
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Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Huracan vs Atletico Lanus – over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Time is running out for both sides here! If giants River Plate are to stay in the Primera Division then it’s going to be at the expense of Huracan as they’re the only side outside of the drop zone that can be caught. Therefore, Huracan need points and they need them fast. Everyone knows that earning points is easier at home than it is away so Huracan need to take advantage of that today.
Unfortunately for the hosts, they’re facing an Atletico Lanus side that finally broke their run of bad form lately with a 2-0 win at home to Tigre. It’s not the most earth-shatteringly great result ever but it does re-awaken Lanus’ aim of qualifying for the Copa Libertadores, which they can still do with Banfield and Newells Old Boys fucking up their respective campaigns royally, although they do need Racing Club Avellaneda to stumble too. Nonetheless, the possibility is there and Lanus definitely have the ability – the only thing they’ve ever lacked is consistency and belief so it’ll be interesting to see which Lanus side turns up tonight.
I was tempted to take the away win here but with the knowledge that neither side is defending well, I decided against doing so. However, what massively intrigued me was over 2.5 goals at a very generous 6/5. Three out of Huracan’s last four games have gone over 2.5 goals as times have gotten desperate and with Lanus’ momentum from their win last match and the stumbling of their rivals, they’ll be up for this game. The last three meetings between these two sides have gone over 2.5 goals and two of those meetings were at this ground so the possibility is there. If both sides turn up for this game, I thoroughly expect this game to go over 2.5 goals and at 6/5, it has to be worth a flutter.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
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Argentinos Juniors vs Colon de Santa Fe – both sides to score at 9/10.
Ah, at last – an Argentinian game which means nothing for both sides! Ironically, the lack of pressure on both sides has seen both sides relax, play good football, and forge some of the best runs of form in the Primera Division with neither side having lost for four consecutive games with both sides winning three times and drawing once along the way. Generally speaking, I’d be concerned if this game meant something as Argentinos tend to keep it tight in defence, which is their only remaining strong feature following their squad’s ravaging after a successful campaign last time around. However, Colon are one of the highest scoring sides in the current campaign away from home so they’ll hopefully breach the hosts’ resilient defence tonight as the game doesn’t require constant vigilance from both sides. Colon’s defence on the road is poor enough to allow Argentinos’ impotent attack to score and therefore we should see both sides scoring in this game although may God help you if you enter the 1×2 market here!
To boost the idea of both sides scoring even further here – both sides have scored in this game for three out of the last four games between these two sides when it’s been played at Argentinos Juniors so the foundation for this bet’s success is certainly there. I do have to urge caution as neither side has anything to play for here with Argentinos Juniors having already qualified for the Copa Libertadores and Colon de Santa Fe comfortably in the middle of nowhere. However, this relaxed style has produced a good number of goals for both sides and I think we’ll see quite a casual, open game here and therefore both sides scoring at 9/10 appeals to me.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 9/10.
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Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Chernomorets Burgas – home win at 11/10.
Chernomorets Burgas are one of just two A PFG sides yet to taste defeat this season. However, I think it’s time for that to change and this is the opportune moment for it to occur.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv have been consistently underestimated by the bookies this season because they’re basing their odds on their displays last season, which were diabolical. This is a very different Loko side indeed – there’s much more money behind them now, more quality in their side, and a renewed sense of belief, especially at home. It’s no coincidence that only Levski Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia have scored more goals at home than Lokomotiv Plovdiv have this season and it’s because they’re rapidly becoming a very good side. Loko have won four out of six at home in the A PFG this season, drawing the other two games. They’ve notched up a highly impressive average of nearly three goals scored per home game whilst conceding just three times in those six games, two of which were against current league leaders Litex Lovech! This Loko side is very, very strong and they’ve played well against Litex Lovech at home and away against Lokomotiv Sofia in the cup a week ago so they’re very capable of mixing it with the “big boys” of the A PFG and I expect more of the same today, especially as only Litex Lovech and Beroe (one of the best defensive sides in the A PFG) have avoided defeat here.
I can’t even class Chernomorets Burgas as a legitimate title threat this season because they simply do not score enough goals! Quality-wise, they’re definitely good enough to be competing for the title – they can stop most, if not all, sides from scoring against them on their day but they’re utterly inept when it comes to creating and scoring chances so I just can’t take them seriously. Yes, they are unbeaten this season but they’ve drawn exactly half of their A PFG games, which is seven from fourteen, which is far more than any other side has drawn. They boast the best defensive record in the division due to their boring football tactics but the knowledge that only a handful of sides have scored less times than they have has to be concerning here. I find myself envisioning the scenario whereby Chernomorets Burgas inevitably fall behind in a game and wonder if they’d pull it back and I just don’t see how they’d manage it, frankly. They’ve been losing at half-time in two out of their fourteen A PFG games this season but pulled it back to get a draw and a win; once at newly-promoted Kaliakra (the draw) and once against Lokomotiv Sofia (the win) because the only games that Chernomorets demonstrate their full potential in are the ones against the big clubs in Bulgaria, which today’s opponents most definitely aren’t.
If Lokomotiv Plovdiv break the stentorian resistance of Chernomorets Burgas then I genuinely feel they’ll hold it and win. The big question is whether they’ll score or not, of course. It’s a tough test for the hosts but they’ve scored against Litex Lovech twice this season, who are currently the best side in the country, so why not against Cherno today? Plovdiv are buoyant at the moment as they knocked Lokomotiv Sofia out of the Bulgarian Cup last week so morale will be a big help to them today. With that in mind, I think Loko may just make 11/10 on winning this game look a little generous, especially as they managed to win this game last year with a less able squad. They’re on fire thanks to veteran striker Lazarov and if they do win the game then I’m pretty confident it’ll be him who does the damage today!
Absentees – Ton and Samir Benjaloun are suspended for the hosts.
Verdict: Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win at 11/10.
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Gloria Bistrita vs Victoria Branesti – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Gloria Bistrita’s new(ish!) manager has guided the hosts to a much more attacking frame of mind and it’s worked but only sporadically. I suppose that’s fair enough when you consider that he’s not exactly got the likes of Torje or Niculae to bail his side out, unlike the giants of the division, but they’re doing ok as a result. They’ve given Gaz Metan a tough away game, beaten giants CFR Cluj in the Cupa Romaniei before succumbing to a heavy defeat against the same side in the Liga. Unlike their old selves, however, Gloria Bistrita picked themselves back up, dusted themselves down, and claimed a very impressive win at a good Universitatea Craiova side so the spirit is there for all to see with this side, given the correct opportunity to show it. Three out of Gloria’s last four games in all competitions have gone over 2.5 goals since they adopted a more attacking style and given that they need the points today against newly-promoted Victoria Branesti, I fancy them to maintain their attacking stance for this game.
Visitors Victoria Branesti are a side that are starting to grow on me because they simply don’t know when they’re beaten. This side has played together for some time and although they lack in the quality department, they don’t lack in the cohesion nor spirit department so my hat goes off to them. They’ve had to deal without having had a home advantage this season, which is an absolute nightmare for a newly-promoted side, and they’ve handled it quite well. As I mentioned earlier, however, they’re not a good defensive side as just three clean sheets in sixteen Liga games indicates all too well. That said, the visitors today don’t let that affect their confidence and they still play their attacking game, which is also evident from the fact that no side in the bottom half of the Liga table have scored more goals than they have this season. Two out of Branesti’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals and this one should too as Branesti simply don’t know when they’re beaten. They’ve taken a deserved 1-1 draw from a trip to league leaders Otelul Galati and gave Dinamo Bucharest a battle in a 2-4 defeat at home last match. As I mentioned earlier – this side has a lot of spirit and that’s important for an attacking side to convert their chances and that’s why I think they’ll attack and score today. Can they win the game? I don’t think they have the quality to do it but I wouldn’t write them off either so I’m staying away from the 1×2 market.
Importantly, Bar misses this game for Victoria Branesti through suspension and he’s an essential part of their already-shaky defence. I therefore think Gloria Bistrita will have their chances and knowing that Branesti will attack them too, this game surely has to go over 2.5 goals today and it has to be worth a punt at decent odds of 11/10.
Absentees – Bar is suspended for Victoria Branesti.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
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Accumulator fodder:
Lugano
Recommended bets:
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Lugano at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Huracan vs Atletico Lanus (5) over 2.5 goals
Argentinos Juniors vs Colon de Santa Fe (6) both sides to score
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Chernomorets Burgas (6) 1-0
Cypriot Division 1:
Alki vs Ermis (6) 0-0
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens vs Aalborg BK (6) 1-1
English Championship:
Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest (5) under 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Tours vs Le Mans (6)
German Bundesliga 2:
Greuther Furth vs 1860 Munich (5) under 2.5 goals
Italian Serie B:
Modena vs Cittadella (6)
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Veendam vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (6) over 2.5 goals
Romanian Liga:
Gloria Bistrita vs Victoria Branesti (6) over 2.5 goals
Gaz Metan Medias vs Universitatea Craiova (5) 1-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Barcelona vs Real Madrid (5) under 2.5 goals
Swiss Challenge League:
Lugano vs Aarau (8)
Turkish Super Lig:
Bursaspor vs Kayserispor (6) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!