Bayern Munich vs Manchester United
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game between Bayern Munich and Manchester United in Germany. This is the first leg of the tie and Bayern Munich are widely expected to put up a good showing tonight but I’m going to go against that (surprise, surprise!) because I don’t believe they will for a second.
Let’s cut to the chase; Bayern Munich have been unconvincing in Europe this season. They’ve played four home games in this tournament, drawing with Juventus and losing to Girondins de Bordeaux (both games without even scoring) and narrowly beating Maccabi Haifa and only just beating a resilient Fiorentina thanks to a late offside goal. They’ve been conceding far too many goals and not scoring enough, a record symptomatic of a side that are out of their depth. If you strip the Bayern Munich side down to basics and consider how many world-class players they have then you’re left with Robben and Ribery. Bayern are attempting to say Robben is injured and may not play; it’s bullshit. He will definitely play in this game because they know they haven’t a hope in hell without him. Bayern are particularly weak in defence and central midfield and it’s shown horribly in the Champions League this season, something which should be exposed tonight.
Sir Alex Ferguson has started the mind games by already singling out Robben and Ribery as Bayern’s best players, putting some pressure on them. I don’t envision it affecting the ever-reliable Robben but the tempremental, want-away midfielder Ribery may just buckle. Franz Beckenbauer has tried doing the same by claiming that the giants are afraid of Wayne Rooney so the old masters are certainly at their wily best!
However, any rational human being has to fancy Manchester United here. Bayern Munich were hyped last season after scoring eleven goals against Sporting Clube de Lisboa over two legs. They were dubbed as a potential upset for Barcelona, which was of course laughable as the Spanish giants deservedly crushed them 6-1 on aggregate, winning both legs comfortably. Bayern Munich are just a name nowadays with a tremendous past, simply. I’ve got a lot of respect for who and what they are but not the football that they play.
Manchester United enter this game absolutely on-fire at the moment. They’ve won seven consecutive games in all competitions whilst scoring sixteen goals – an average of over two goals per game. They’ve beaten an ageing but talented AC Milan side 7-2 on aggregate, winning both legs of their European tie. They strolled to victory in Bolton at weekend despite resting both Ferdinand and Rooney, winning 4-0 without ever having to get out of first gear. United can rest big players and still win tough away games like that comfortably. Is there a more experienced Champions League side than Manchester United currently? Excepting Barcelona, I’d say not. United have won their last six away games in the Champions League consecutively which is a sign of a side that is tactically astute in this competition as well as experienced. Ultimately, United are the real deal here – the ability, the variety in tactics, the potency, the defensive stability, the experience, and the composure – so it’s hard to consider anything but an away win tonight.
United will have to be wary down the flanks as that is Bayern’s most potent attacking method. However, Evra and Neville are experienced and talented enough to do the job on their respective players. Neville was poor earlier this season due to his ageing legs but has played very well lately and learned to deal without the pace by being more intelligent in his mind. United will most likely revert to their five midfielders with Park supporting Rooney, which was superb against Liverpool. Bayern don’t have the cental midfield to deal with United tonight and I expect them to be overrun as a result.
As a final point, consider that Bayern rested Ribery and Robben for their home game against VFB Stuttgart at weekend ahead of this match tonight. United employed a similar tactic by resting Ferdinand and Rooney. United won their tricky away game 4-0 without getting out of first gear. Bayern took the lead in their tricky home game and lost 2-1. Bayern are a side that cannot cope unless their wingers bail them out but they’re facing a side that knows how to deal with that issue and will pose a real problem for Bayern in attack. I honestly don’t expect Bayern to score tonight – I think they’ve been massively overrated by the bookies due to their prestigious past. I think United will win this game with real comfort – I may even back them with a cheeky -1.75 handicap too.
Verdict: Manchester United to win at 7/5.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Libertad Asuncion vs Lanus – away win at 5/2.
I can’t fathom these odds. Libertad Asuncion have done very well in Copa Libertadores this season but are they really better than Lanus? No. They caught them off guard in Argentina when they won the reversal of this fixture but since then both sides have catapulted in opposite directions form-wise with Lanus winning games without conceding of late and Libertad Asuncion struggling to score goals and thus struggling to win games. Lanus have won their last three games consecutively without conceding a goal so bring strong momentum into this game. They’ve had a dismal Copa Libertadores campaign so far but it’s now make-or-break as they have to win this game tonight. Libertad have scored once in their last four home games in all competitions so why they’re such favourites to win this game is beyond me. They’ve got home advantage, admittedly, but they’re not playing well and they’re not the better side here so it should be an interesting game. Either way, Lanus are too long for this game and could be a good bet tonight.
Verdict: Lanus to win at 5/2.
Cardiff City vs Leicester City – home win at evens.
Cardiff City appear to have shaken off their barren spell by going on a four-match unbeaten run, winning three of those games. We all know how capable Wales’ biggest side are but they had started to falter prior to this morale-boosting run. Cardiff have scored eight goals during those four games – an average of two goals scored per game – and have even won the tricky trip to Coventry City along the way. Cardiff are generally reliable at home with nine wins in ninteen games and average scoring over 1.5 goals per home game whilst boasting the fourth best defensive record in the Championship on their own turf. I’m a little concerned that Cardiff keep conceding irrespective of who they’re playing but whilst momentum is on their side, they keep outscoring sides so I think we’ll see a similar outcome tonight.
Leicester City are a tough side to break down but struggle more than most when out of form as they don’t score many goals. Leicester don’t even average scoring a goal per away game but their impressive goals conceded record of just over a goal per away game is the reason that they’ve only lost six away games out of nineteen this season in the Championship. However, no wins in their past three games and two consecutive defeats leading into tonight’s game leaves Leicester looking a little shaky, particularly as two of those games were at home, which is naturally their stronghold. They’ve played some hard games, don’t get me wrong, but the fact is that they’ve not handled their opponents well nor the pressure of expectancy and yet they’re set to face even more tonight against fellow promotion hopefuls Cardiff. Cardiff are just as good as the other sides that Leciester have faced and lost against so I can see Leicester struggling tonight.
I don’t want Leicester to score the first goal tonight or this bet could be in real jeopardy. Cardiff are a good side when they can attack against a side that will venture out of their own half on occasion but a Leicester side with a lead would not do that which leaves Cardiff frustrated more often than not. I think Cardiff are likely to concede tonight at somepoint given their shaky defensive record of late but if they get the first goal then they should win this game. Either way, I rate Cardiff as the better of these two sides and they’re generally good at home so odds of evens on the home win look good to me tonight.
Verdict: Cardiff City to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Kashima Antlers, Veendam, Aberystwyth Town.
Recommended bets:
Manchester United, Kashima Antlers, Veendam, and Rangers at
Bunyodkor, Jeonbuk Motors, Aberystwyth Town, and Cardiff City at
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Olympique Lyonnais vs Girondins de Bordeaux (5) 0-0
Bayern Munich vs Manchester United (8) 0-2
Copa Libertadores:
Libertad Asuncion vs Lanus (4) 0-1
Juan Aurich vs Estudiantes De La Plata (5) 2-1
Asian Champions League:
Persipura Jayapura vs Kashima Antlers (10) -1.75 handicap
Jeonbuk Motors vs Changchun Yatai (7) 2-0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Adelaide United (6) 2-1
Shandong Luneng vs Pohang Steelers (5) 1-1
Bunyodkor vs Zob Ahan (7) 2-0
Mes Kerman vs Al Sadd (6) 1-1
Al Ahli vs Al Hilal (6) 0-1
Al Ittihad vs Al Wahda (7) 2-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse – Play-Offs:
Germinal Beerschot vs Racing Genk (6) 1-1
English Championship:
Plymouth Argyle vs Barnsley (4) under 2.5 goals
Cardiff City vs Leicester City (7)
Watford vs Crystal Palace (7)
English League One:
Oldham Athletic vs Brentford (5) under 2.5 goals
English League Two:
Accrington Stanley vs Barnet (4)
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Veendam vs Omniworld (8)
Russian Division 1:
KamAZ Nab Chely vs Rotor Volgograd (7) under 2.5 goals
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan (4)
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs FK Niznhyi Novgorod (6)
Irtysh Omsk vs Mordovia Saransk (6) under 2.5 goals
Baltika Kaliningrad vs Krasnodor (7)
Dinamo St.Petersburg vs Zhemchuzhina Sochi (5)
Scottish Premier League:
St.Johnstone vs Rangers (8) 0-2
Singaporean S-League:
Beijing Guoan vs Gombak United (5) 0-1
Welsh Premier League:
Welshpool Town vs Aberystwyth Town (8) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!