Brest vs Sedan-Ardennes
FreeToday’s featured game is the French Ligue 2 encounter between Brest and Sedan-Ardennes. Brest have steamrollered their way through Ligue 2 this season and currently occupy second place in the table. Visitors Sedan-Ardennes are a capable side but haven’t shown it much this season as they’ve drawn far too many games.
Brest have won ten out of thirteen home games already in Ligue 2 this season. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game (more than any other Ligue 2 side) and have won their last five home games consecutively whilst scoring nine times. Brest have won three out of their last four Ligue 2 games and have as much momentum as they could possibly require to win this game tonight. Their potency is strong and although their defence isn’t as good as it could or should be currently, Brest are still taking three points from the vast majority of their games and should continue that streak tonight.
Sedan-Ardennes are a good “stifling” side, which does bother me a little. However, the fact that they’ve already lost five out of eleven away games in Ligue 2 this season does give me confidence despite their unbeaten run of four games now. Sedan average conceding nearly two goals per away game and have conceded five goals in their past three Ligue 2 games so it’s easy to see where the majority of their problems lie. Although Sedan would certainly be boosted with some additional firepower, their goalscoring of late hasn’t been an issue with seven goals scored in three Ligue 2 games. However, despite some impressive results for Sedan, I don’t really rate their run too much as they’ve not faced any great quality sides. Don’t get me wrong – Sedan will have taken momentum from their recent form and it’ll make them harder to play against. However, Sedan are facing an in-form Brest side that they know are better than themselves so they may well resort to their “stifling” tactics in an attempt to take something from this game tonight as I doubt their potency of late will play much of a part against a solid host like Brest.
This could and should be a tight game between two good sides. Sedan will defend resolutely but they’re conceding too many goals at the moment so I expect Brest to do them some damage tonight. Sedan rarely convince on the road so even their potency at the moment hasn’t convinced me that they’ll put in a shift tonight against Brest. I expect a rather tenacious game between two battling sides but ultimately Brest should have the quality to overcome a struggling Sedan-Ardennes oufit.
Verdict: Brest to win at 5/6.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
SV Mattersburg vs Austria Vienna – away win at evens.
SV Mattersburg enter this game as something of a “home side” with six wins in ten home games in the Bundesliga. They profit largely from the fact that they score a good amount of goals – over two goals per home game – as it covers up for their generally poor defending with sixteen goals conceded in ten home games. Mattersburg won their only game at home since returning from the winter break at home to Wiener Neustadt in a tight game but have since been crushed 4-0 at Sturm Graz so a reminder of just where Mattersburg are in the pecking order in the Bundesliga has been well and truly emphasised. Mattersburg have lost this fixture for two seasons running now and I’m not seeing any signs that the record will change with Mattersburg conceding too many goals of late without having the necessary quality to counter it.
Visitors Austria Vienna have won both games since their return from the winter break and it’s largely due to their incredible potency that they’ve done so. Not many Bundesliga sides could concede four goals over two Bundesliga games but still win both but Austria Vienna have done that with a total of eight goals scored – an average of four goals per game. They’ve faced mediocre sides – Austria Karnten and SV Kapfenberg – but the sides that they have beaten are on a par with Mattersburg in my book so I can’t see why a similar outcome won’t arise. Austria Vienna have only won four out of ten away games this season but they’ve got enough potency in their favour to see them boost that record.
Austria Vienna are definitely the better of these two sides but that rarely counts for something away from home in Austria. However, what definitely does count is that Austria Vienna are scoring goals for fun and Mattersburg aren’t scoring many but are conceding so Austria Vienna really should outscore Mattersburg tonight in a potentially rather high-scoring game.
Verdict: Austria Vienna to win at evens.
NK Zagreb vs Rijeka – home win at 3/4.
NK Zagreb have languished near the foot of the Prva Liga for the vast majority of the season but they began to claw their way free just before the winter break, going on a run of three wins from four home games, drawing the other encounter. That run included a win against their more illustrious local rivals Dinamo Zagreb and saw them score twelve goals – an average of three goals per home game. NK Zagreb scored a lot of goals both home and away prior to the winter break and although I don’t believe that the momentum will have carried over such a lengthy period of time, I do believe that NK Zagreb have shown their capability to be a strong home side and are well-placed to win this game with the quality at their disposal despite their misleading league placing.
Visitors Rijeka are consistently a poor away side in this division and this season is no exception. They’ve lost five out of eight away games this season and average conceding over two goals per away game. Whereas those statistics are both concerning, their biggest concern surely has to be that they’ve scored just four goals in eight away games this season? That’s an average of a goal per every two away games and is the joint second worst away record in the division with only Medimurje’s three away goals being a worse record. I rate Rijeka and have a lot of time for them but their away form is absolutely shocking considering the quality available to them and it baffles me as to how consistently they fail to turn up on the road. Nonetheless, I’m here to take advantage of it, not criticise it, so that’s what I intend to do!
The winter break does disrupt momentum so we can’t rely too heavily on that for this game. However, NK Zagreb have proven themselves to be a good home side and Rijeka have long been a poor away side so there should be value in the home win tonight, particularly with Rijeka’s abysmal away record in regards to scoring goals.
Verdict: NK Zagreb to win at 3/4.
Vicenza vs Cittadella – home win at evens.
Vicenza enter this game on the back of a frankly astounding 5-0 win at Sassuolo! Of all the games that could have been associated with “match fixing” then this result surely had to be up there? I’m all for surprises in football (providing I call them!) but their goalscoring last match accounted for nearly 33% of their away goals this season! Vicenza are a drawing side by nature although that does tend to occur more at home than away in their defence.
However, that impressive result now leaves Vicenza undefeated in three games and with two wins along the way and nine goals scored, which is an average of three goals scored per game. They’ve only lost once at home this season but their three wins in thirteen home games isn’t good enough, frankly. If they had been good enough at home then they’d probably be competing for promotion to Serie A now. Still, times can change and football is a funny old business! Only Cesena and Empoli have conceded less goals at home than Vicenza have this season so their momentum and home advantage as well as their potency should spell a lot of problems for visitors Cittadella.
Cittadella are the atypical Serie B “home side”. They’ve only lost once at home this season but away from home they’re a completely different side. They’ve already lost eight out of thirteen away games in Serie B this season, a record “bettered” only by relegation battlers Salernitana, Reggina, and promotion hopefuls Ancona. Cittadella don’t even average scoring a goal per game on the road but do average conceding nearly two goals per away game; yet another record that only a handful of sides can better.
Cittadella have now lost two consecutive away games whilst conceding five goals and scoring zero so their away form is as bad as ever. With Vicenza in a perfect position to capitalise on that with superior momentum, potency, and morale, I find it hard to overlook the good odds tonight for the home win in this game.
Verdict: Vicenza to win at evens.
Emmen vs Cambuur Leeuwarden – away win at 10/11.
To make this call I have to ignore the form chart, which can be a dangerous move. However, I simply have to look at the quality of the two teams and wonder why the hell Cambuur are 10/11 to win this game?
Emmen are barely good enough to be in Eerste Divisie and this is something that is proven on a consistent basis. Cambuur are on the verge of joining the Eredivisie and have been for some time – something else that is proven on a consistent basis. I won’t deny that Cambuur’s form lately has disappointed whereas Emmen’s has impressed but there’s such a gulf in class between these two sides that the odds astound me. Cambuur have already won eight out of thirteen away games this season, a record that only league leaders De Graafschap can match, and with an average of nearly three goals scored per away game you have to feel that Cambuur are a very real threat it any away game.
Emmen have already lost six home games this season so why the form guide would convince the bookies that Cambuur are now not going to show up tonight is beyond me. Emmen simply aren’t good enough to match the visitors and although the visitors have conceded a little too much in recent times, their quality remains unquestionable and superior.
Verdict: Cambuur Leeuwarden to win at 10/11.
Zwolle vs Den Bosch – home win at 4/5.
This was a contender for game of the day but I just chose Brest vs Sedan-Ardennes instead!
Zwolle have finally gone on their long run of form which I predicted some months ago now. They’ve a very capable side and it’s good to see them vying for promotion; back where they belong! They’ve now won nine in thirteen home games whilst scoring nearly two goals per home game on average. They’ve won their last seven home games consecutively whilst scoring sixteen goals and conceding just three times so to say they’re on fire and reliable at home is an understatement. Zwolle have won four out of their last five Eerste Divisie games so their overall momentum is almost as strong as their momentum at home. Bluntly, Zwolle have a fantastic chance of winning this game with everything favouring them currently.
Visitors Den Bosch are a capable side but aren’t showing it at the moment. They’ve lost their last two games consecutively whilst conceding seven goals and scoring just once. Den Bosch are without an Eerste Divisie win in five games and have only scored in three of those games. Den Bosch are certainly capable of competing for a promotion place but they don’t appear to be bothered enough to do so this season for some reason. The fact that they’ve only lost four out of twelve away games shows you how good that they are capable of being but the fact that they’ve lost three out of their last five games shows you how reliable they are on that front.
Atypically, this should be a good game between two good sides. However, only one of these two sides is playing good football as we enter this game and that’s the hosts Zwolle. They’ve got everything they need in their favour to make the home win tonight a very good value bet indeed against a demoralised and out-of-sorts Den Bosch.
Verdict: Zwolle to win at 4/5.
Helmond Sport vs Volendam – home win at evens.
Helmond Sport are one of the four sides that are joint at the top of the scoring charts when playing at home with an average of over two goals scored per game. Helmond’s problem has been conceding too many or else they’d be higher than they currently are but they’re nonetheless a very potent threat to any visiting side. Helmond have already won seven out of thirteen home games in the Eerste Divisie this season and have won their last three games consecutively, giving them strong momentum ahead of tonight’s game. Helmond have kept clean sheets in all three of their three consecutive wins and have scored seven goals along the way. With the above in mind, you have to feel that Helmond have a good chance of winning this game tonight.
Visitors Volendam have disappointed me this season with some immature, crazy displays and are deservedly in the lower part of the table as a result. Volendam have had no problems scoring goals but the fact that only Eindhoven and Emmen have conceded more goals than they have this season speak volumes as to why they’re doing so badly. They may have only lost five out of twelve away games this seson but the fact that they’ve only won twice reflects that they’re not a particularly good away side. They concede over two goals per away game on average and it usually requires their potency to salvage a draw for them on the road. Volendam haven’t won in their past six games and have lost two out of their last three games so their momentum is suffering and as a result they’re not even scoring as many goals as they’re capable of.
Volendam’s goal-shy displays of late (just three goals scored in their past five games) are sure to play right into the hands of hosts Helmond Sport and with the hosts in such a rich vein of form and scoring goals for fun you have to feel that the value is with the home win tonight.
Verdict: Helmond Sport to win at evens.
Telstar vs AGOVV Appeldoorn – away win at 6/5.
Telstar are still dwelling near the foot of the table despite their best attempts to be elsewhere in the Eerste Divisie. They’ve already lost seven out of twelve home games this season and average conceding two goals per home game, hence their problems taking points at home. They’ve lost their last four games consecutively and despite not conceding excessively in any of those games, Telstar’s meager two goals scored along the way indicate just why they’ve done so badly in those games and I see no reason for their goal-shy displays to convince me that tonight will be any different.
Visitors AGOVV Appeldoorn have over-achieved this season but irrespective of that fact they remain a competent side. They’ve unbeaten in their last six games and have won three out of their last five games, winning their last two games consecutively. They won their last away game at Volendam, which is a tough away game for any Eerste Divisie side, and more impressively did so without conceding. After smashing four goals past promotion hopefuls Excelsior, AGOVV Appeldoorn’s confidence and potency is through the roof so should take the game to demoralised and goal-shy Telstar tonight in what should be a fairly straightforward away win despite AGOVV’s relatively unconvincing away form.
Verdict: AGOVV Appeldoorn to win at 6/5.
Odra Wodzislaw vs Lechia Gdansk – home win at 13/10.
This is easily the riskiest call of the day so far by me but I do like the look of it. Odra surprised an in-form Lechia at the start of the Ekstraklasa this season by winning 2-0 and I think we could see something similar tonight.
Although bottom of the Ekstraklasa, Odra are only three points away from joining the battling group so they’re not out of it by any stretch of the imagination. They’ve only avoided defeat in three of their nine home games this season which should emphasise how risky this bet is. However, over the winter break Odra have rung the changes in a desperate charge to avoid the dreaded drop. Although they’ve lost experienced defender Kuranty to Polonia Bytom, Odra Wodzislaw have brought in eight new faces, most of which are expected to make an appearance tonight. They’ve signed Brasilia, Onyszko, Luksik, Velicky, Kolendowicz, Shalamberidze, and most impressively Cantoro from Wisla Krakow. They’ve got the right mix of talent and experience in their signings and Odra should have enough here to stave off the threat of relegation, in my opinion. Of course a lot depends on how well these players gel but Odra know that they must start winning games and there are few games more able to be won than hosting Lechia Gdansk despite their misleading league position!
Lechia Gdansk enter this game with only two away defeats in the Ekstraklasa this season. As much as I love to see Lechia do well, I’d be lying if I said that they were anywhere near as good their statistics suggest. They’re a dogged defensive side and whereas that works more often than not, the fact is that they’re not a very good side at the core. Lechia have lost their momentum due to the winter break so could be susceptible to a rather new and motivated Odra side tonight. It doesn’t help matters that Lechia boss has decided to drop midfielders Kaczmarek and Piatek due to poor displays. Piatek in particular has taken offence at some of the comments from manager Kafarski and I feel this is going to have really unsettled the Lechia dressing room. They’re also missing Rogalski, Kowalczyk and Cvirik through injury and Bak has left for Maritimo during the transfer window. So to put it bluntly – Lechia aren’t in the best of shapes for this game so it’ll be interesting to see how they fare tonight.
As I’ve said already, Lechia aren’t good enough to be where they are in the table so I expect them to be brought back down to earth sooner or later. Odra are now in a position to be able to battle well and score goals so that’s got to happen sooner or later but there aren’t many better chances for that to occur than tonight against Lechia. Odra will smell the blood on the Lechia confidence and surely must take the game to their visitors tonight. Although it’ll be a tight and scrappy game, I think Odra have succeeded during the transfer window with their signings whereas Lechia have weakened and lost their momentum so there could and should be value in the home win tonight although caution is naturally emphasised!
Verdict: Odra Wodzislaw to win at 13/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Lierse SK, TPS Turku, HJK Helsinki, Debreceni VSC.
Recommended bets:
HJK Helsinki, TPS Turku, and Zwolle at 5/1.
Debreceni VSC, Vicenza, and Austria Vienna at 6/1.
Lierse SK, Cambuur Leeuwarden, and Brest at 6/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes De La Plata (5) 1-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Mattersburg vs Austria Vienna (8) over 2.5 goals
Austrian Liga 1:
Dornbirn vs Salzburg II (6)
Austria Vienna II vs Gratkorn (4)
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Germinal Beerschot vs AA Gent (5) 1-1
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Beveren vs Lierse SK (8)
Bulgarian A PFG:
Litex Lovech vs Lokomotiv Mezdra (10) -1.75 handicap
Croatian Prva Liga:
NK Zagreb vs Rijeka (6) 1-0
English League One:
Southend United vs Charlton Athletic (6)
Finnish Liiga Cup:
TPS Turku vs FC Lahti (8) 2-0
HJK Helsinki vs Inter Turku (8) 2-1
French Ligue 2:
Tours vs AC Ajaccio (5) under 2.5 goals
Vannes OC vs Arles (6)
Istres vs Chateauroux (5)
Angers SCO vs Clermont Foot (6)
Bastia vs Guingamp (6)
Dijon FCO vs Laval (7)
Nimes vs Nantes (5)
Brest vs Sedan-Ardennes (8)
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Strasbourg (7)
German Bundesliga:
Schalke 04 vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
German Bundesliga 2:
FSV Frankfurt vs Energie Cottbus (5)
MSV Duisburg vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (7)
Paderborn vs 1860 Munich (5)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Debreceni VSC vs Diosgyor VTK (8) -1.75 handicap
Italian Serie B:
Vicenza vs Cittadella (6)
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs America (6) over 2.5 goals
Dutch Eredivisie:
ADO Den Haag vs Roda JC Kerkrade (6) 1-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
De Graafschap vs Excelsior (7)
Emmen vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (6)
Omniworld vs Eindhoven (6) over 2.5 goals
Oss vs Fortuna Sittard (6)
Zwolle vs Den Bosch (8)
Helmond Sport vs Volendam (7)
MVV Maastricht vs Go Ahead Eagles (7)
RBC Roosendaal vs Veendam (6)
Telstar vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (6)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Odra Wodzislaw vs Lechia Gdansk (6) 2-1
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warsaw (6) 0-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Uniao de Leiria vs Vitoria Guimaraes (6) 1-1
Romanian Liga:
Unirea Alba Iulia vs Gloria Bistrita (7) 0-0
Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt vs Otelul Galati (6) 0-1
Poli Timisoara vs Politehnica Iasi (7) under 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Castellon (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!