Cerro Porteno vs Estudiantes De La Plata
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Copa Libertadores encounter in Paraguay between Cerro Porteno and Estudiantes De La Plata. The first leg in Argentina ended 0-0 so this tie has everything riding on it and I don’t expect either side to disappoint.
Why? Well, they’re both attacking sides, basically. Both have been pretty average/poor of late domestically but both are capable of much more than they’re showing too, as we all know. A 0-2 win for Cerro Porteno in their “El Clasico” with Olimpia Asuncion will have done them the power of good ahead of this important game and I expect them to be fired up for it. Even if they’re not as a team then I know one man who absolutely will be – ex-Velez Sarsfield striker Roberto Nanni. You don’t tend to find many tall Argentinian strikers but he’s one of them and I’m sure he’d love to pile misery upon the rivals of the club that raised him. Cerro Porteno also have Fabbro, Bareiro, Lucero, and Argentinian youngster Iturbe as attacking threats, not to mention ex-Bayern Munich midfielder Dos Santos. Defensively, this side is all over the place and it’s a mark of bad attacking by Estudiantes in the first leg that Cerro Porteno left with a clean sheet, which incidentally has happened just three times in their last eighteen Copa Libertadores games and when you consider that the other two games were against Venezuelan opposition, you can see where I’m coming from.
Backing both sides to score would have won in all of Cerro Porteno’s home games thus far in the group stage and in most of their away games too. They do boast some firepower but as I said earlier – they’re susceptible at the back. The question is whether Estudiantes take advantage of that or not, however, because they’ve been pretty woeful lately. In fact, no – scrap that. They’ve been fucking terrible lately! They’ve scored in one out of their last six games in all competitions and although they’ve had a few tough games along the way, it’s simply not good enough for a side with such firepower in their ranks. The fact that they’re facing arguably the weakest defence in their past six games comforts me in regards to the above statistic but what also comforts me is that Veron has been included in the squad for the trip to Paraguay. It’s wrong that Estudiantes have to rely upon him so much nowadays but that’s where they’re at currently. He looked dubious following an injury at the end of the game with Velez Sarsfield lately but has been deemed fit enough to play tonight. If he can pull the strings then there will be space for Fernandez to operate in, especially with Barrientos dragging markers out wide. Although I think Estudiantes are a long way from a side that I’d back to win a game at the moment, I do think that they can at least score in South America’s most prestigious club tournament.
Estudiantes have already played in Asuncion this season, winning 1-2 at Guarani Asuncion in the group stages. Cerro Porteno are a better side than Guarani but a similar display wouldn’t surprise me here. I think we’ll see a tight game despite there being two attacking sides on display and I’d hate to call the winner but for me, backing both sides to score in this game has value at 5/6 tonight.
Team news – Cerro Porteno miss Rodrigo Burgos whilst having doubts over Ivan Piris.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Jaguares – home win at 4/5.
Something really grates on me about backing Colombian sides at home with such short odds but I do feel there’s value here.
True, Atletico Junior don’t have to win this game, but I still think that they will. Why? Well, travelling to Colombia from a staggering height of 3500 metres above sea level does a lot of damage to players as they try to adjust and generally fail. That’s why Jaguares have lost three out of their three away games in the Copa Libertadores already, conceding seven times along the way. Jaguares are notorious in Mexico for not scoring goals and that’s something I agree with – they lack a naturally talented striker. All the fuss in the Jaguares camp ahead of this game was the excellent display from striker Jackson Martinez during their 4-1 win against Queretaro lately but he can’t possibly be fit yet. If you examine the comments that his manager has made and read between the lines – Martinez is not fit but he’s been forced into playing because Jaguares are fucked without him, basically. To be honest, I think they’re fucked with him anyway – they’re just not good enough in front of goal and Barranquilla has proved to be a tought venue for every away side this season – why not Jaguares tonight? Atletico Junior aren’t a massively potent side but they generally know how to hold leads at home and I think they’ll get a lead tonight given the altitude drop. Junior have won two out of their three home games in the tournament thus far with the only exception being the game with Leon de Huanuco in which the Peruvian visitors were awarded a penalty and salvaged a late 1-1 draw as a result. Brazilian giants Gremio were felled here in a 2-1 victory so the hosts are capable of doing damage tonight. A cursive glance at the Primera A table will show you that Junior have sacrificed their domestic campaign for the right to be in the Copa Libertadores. If tonight’s game requires blood, they’ll give it, and that kind of determination is hard to overlook tonight.
For me, there’s value in the home win at 4/5. I’d leave it if the odds drop as Junior aren’t potent enough to merit shorter odds but at 4/5, I’m on the home win.
Verdict: Atletico Junior Barranquilla to win at 4/5.
Independiente vs Manta – home win at 5/4.
Manta’s sacking of boss Gabriel Perrone has done little to help their cause ahead of a tough trip to Independiente. Interim boss Carlos Pico will take charge of a demoralised Manta side for this encounter but Manta need to move fast to try and save their season.
In Ecuador, you have five good teams – Deportivo Quito, Liga de Quito, Deportivo Cuenca, Emelec Guayaquil, and Barcelona Guayaquil respectively – whereas the rest are about on par barring El Nacional Quito, who are special enough to have their own group in between the two afore-mentioned groups depending on how they feel at the time!
Now consider that the only sides to win at Independiente this season have been from the “good teams” list and you’ll see why I consider Independiente to be quite strong at home. Aside from those games, Independiente have won three times and drawn once so they’re a force to be reckoned with. Helpfully, they’re in-form too, losing just once in their past five games. They’ve smashed in six goals in three games and have won their last two games consecutively, the most recent of which was a highly impressive win at Deportivo Quito last round thanks to a brace from Nina. Independiente are very much a battling side and with such strong momentum behind them, you have to fancy them to do well tonight.
You have to feel for Manta, really. You’d think that Lady Luck would have dealt them an easier game tonight for Pico to get into the swing of things i.e. a home game with Espoli Cayambe but no, they’ve got a tough trip to Independiente looming! Morale is low following five games without a win, four of which they’ve lost. They’ve lost five out of their last six away games in the Primera A due to conceding a minimum of two goals per each away game that they’ve lost in, hence their predicament. Manta do have some firepower in Ramirez and Fredrich but is it enough when your defence is conceding goals so freely? Not in my view. They shipped four at impotent El Nacional Quito last match so I don’t rate their chances too highly here.
Of course, a “new” manager can swing things the other way sometimes so do approach this one with caution. However, I can’t overlook odds of 5/4 on in-form Independiente claiming a vital three points against demoralised and vulnerable Manta tonight.
Verdict: Independiente to win at 5/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Montana.
Recommended bets:
Atletico Junior Barranquilla and Montana at over evens.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Europa League:
Sporting Braga vs SL Benfica (6) 1-2
Villarreal CF vs Porto (5) 2-2
Copa Libertadores:
Cerro Porteno vs Estudiantes De La Plata (5) 1-1
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Jaguares (7) 1-0
Liga de Quito vs Velez Sarsfield (7) 2-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Montana vs Rakovski (8) 2-0
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Chernomorets Burgas (6) 1-0
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Independiente vs Manta (7) 2-1
Olmedo Riobamba vs Espoli Cayambe (7) 1-0
Imbabura vs Emelec Guayaquil (6) 1-1
Deportivo Quito vs LDU Loja (7) 2-0
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Deportivo Cuenca (7) under 2.5 goals
Romanian Liga:
Gloria Bistrita vs Gaz Metan Medias (6) 1-1
Universitatea Cluj vs Sportul Studentesc (7) 2-1
Vaslui vs Poli Timisoara (6) 2-1
Otelul Galati vs Universitatea Craiova (7) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Woodlands Wellington vs Hougang United (5)0-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!