Club Brugge vs Standard de Liege

Today’s featured game is the Eerste Klasse tie between heavyweights Club Brugge and Standard de Liege. This mouth-watering encounter comes at a time when both sides are finding the net regularly and whilst both sides are still in the race for the Eerste Klasse title so we should see a good game here.

For me, the name of the game today is “goals”. I was tempted to take over 3.5 goals in this game because to be honest, neither of these two sides can defend for shit. As far as the over/under 2.5 goals average chart goes, both of these two sides are in the top four of the table with each side participating in a game with an average of at least 3.25 goals per game. That in itself sets the foundation for this bet but let’s not also forget the form chart.

Standard have won four out of their last five games and the only side to break that record was league leaders Racing Genk in an exciting 4-2 victory in Genk, thus proving that Standard are on their way back to their best and that it’s basically going to take a lot to displace them currently. During that run, Standard smashed five goals past rivals Anderlecht and with new striker Tchite slotting seamlessly into the side, Standard not only look more confident and complete but they’re begnning to show it too with Witsel and Defour beginning to spread their wings in midfield. Liege will be encouraged by the fact that Club Brugge, much like themselves, simply cannot defend and also by the fact that Club Brugge may just have their attention fixed upon their home game with Dinamo Zagreb next week in the UEFA Europa League. Unlike Standard, Club Brugge aren’t getting the best out of their strikers currently. However, what they are doing is producing an awful lot of goals from midfield with Ecuadorian midfielder Vargas having bagged nine times in twelve games already this season. Blondel, Perisic, Odjidja-Ofoe, and Geraerts have also contributed from midfield, which makes Brugge a rather difficult opponent to face, in my opinion. You can make plans for good strikers but if the goals are coming from midfield then it becomes hard to block them as much as you would with strikers for obvious reasons. A couple of disappointing results have headed Club Brugge’s way lately but they’ve got to be up for a rivalry match so I expect to see a lot from them today.

As I mentioned earlier – this game has got goals written all over it. Club Brugge average scoring nearly three goals per home game whilst conceding over a goal per home game whereas Standard’s last six games in all competitions have gone over 2.5 goals. Five out of the last six meetings between these two sides have gone over 2.5 goals and although odds of 3/4 aren’t particularly special in my eyes, they’re still very generous odds for this game to go over 2.5 goals between two good attacking sides.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4.

Sunday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Racing Genk vs Anderlecht – over 2.5 goals at 3/4.

I fancy Genk to win this one with Anderlecht missing virtually their entire midfield for the game. However, for me, there’s more value in the goals option rather than the 1×2 market.

You see, we have arguably the two best sides in Belgium playing against each other today, in my opinion, so 1×2 markets rarely interest me in such games. However, what both sides do impeccably well currently is score goals. Genk striker Jelle Vossen is in the form of his life and is the leading goalscorer in the Eerste Klasse and this impressive record has earned him a national call-up and potential suitors from all around Europe, the most notable of which is Everton in the English Premier League. Genk draw a lot of confidence from Vossen’s incisive finishing and as a result, Barda and Ogunjimi have been playing well and thus making Genk’s attack the most feared in the division. Ten out of Genk’s twelve Eerste Klasse games this season have gone over 2.5 goals and although defeat at Kortrijk last weekend has brought them back down to earth, it’s hard to envision them not being motivated for a big game against giants Anderlecht, particularly an Anderlecht side short on midfielders whilst Genk only miss De Bruyne for this game.

Let’s not also forget that Anderlecht have a trip to Greece to face AEK Athens looming large so this game is really badly timed for them. Lukaku in attack now has more pressure than ever and isn’t dealing well with it. Anderlecht will miss Polak, Deschacht, Biglia, and have doubts over Juhasz, Legear, and Boussouffa. These are some hefty losses for Anderlecht, especially from an attacking perspective so I have my concerns over them today.

Like I said earlier – I won’t touch the 1×2 market here but taking over 2.5 goals at 3/4 seems a good value bet to me as Anderlecht are missing a lot of players and the hosts have been inspired this season, especially at home, not to mention the fact that both of these sides are attacking outfits.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4.

Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Cherno More Varna are not the atypical side I associate with “over 2.5 goals” but they are certainly proving to be that side in the A PFG so far this season with an average of nearly two goals scored per home game whilst conceding over a goal per home game on average too. Lokomotiv Sofia are always an overs side because their defence isn’t particularly good but their attack is absolutely lethal when Boateng and Genkov link up as well as they do so I expect them to trouble their hosts today. Cherno More used to be solid defensively but they appear a lot easier to breach and let’s face it – whilst Lokomotiv are averaging scoring and conceding nearly two goals per away game, we have to expect goals here. Loko’s last ten consecutive games (out of eleven this season!) have all gone over 2.5 goals whilst Cherno More’s last five consecutive games have all gone over 2.5 goals. Four out of the last meetings between these two sides have gone over 2.5 goals and with both sides seemingly throwing caution to the wind by attacking relentlessly, taking over 2.5 goals at 4/5 looks a given today.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Santiago Wanderers vs Audax Italiano – away win at 6/5.

Audax Italiano are the best away side in Chile for one reason; they simply don’t defend. They attack without fear and without time-wasting when winning; they simply play football and try to score as many goals as possible. I have a lot of respect for them for it, naturally, although the problems this approach can cause can be tremendous if Audax are out-of-form. However, they’re certainly not out-of-form currently with five wins in their last six games. In fact, they’re unbeaten in fifteen Primera Division games and have won twelve of those so you can see that the massive amount of belief that they have at the moment and the positive part of Audax’s style is that when they’re confident, they score a lot of goals. Audax are not the best side in Chile but because they attack so well, they become a nightmare to play against. They’ve played the “big three” in Chile away from home in their last six away games and have scored at least twice against all three of them, drawing 2-2 at Universidad de Chile, winning 1-3 at Colo Colo, and winning 2-3 at Universidad Catolica. Audax are absolutely flying with Argentinian striker Olivi in explosive form and the visitors tonight simply look unstoppable at the moment, particularly with nine wins from fourteen away games in the Prmiera Division already to their name this season!

Audax Italiano have won their last three league visits here and with the only way to stop them being to outscore them, I don’t fancy Santiago Wanderers’ chances here. The hosts average scoring approximately 1.5 goals per home game but have only won once in their last four home games, losing twice along the way and failing to score in both of those defeats. The hosts simply aren’t playing well enough or scoring enough goals to cause problems for the visitors in this game so taking the away win at 6/5 looks a good bet to me.

Verdict: Audax Italiano to win at 6/5.

Bolton Wanderers vs Liverpool – both sides to score at 4/5.

Liverpool finally banished some demons in their home game against Blackburn Rovers lately as they dominated from start to finish and could have scored six or seven had they been in-form. I’d attribute part of their display to Blackburn missing both Samba and Nelsen in defence but the fact remains that Liverpool did attack well and most importantly, star striker Torres finally broke his duck and could start scoring freely again. This will inspire the team and they should give a good account of themselves today. They don’t have a great record at Bolton over the years because of the physical nature of the hosts so the dubious defence of Liverpool should be thoroughly tested in this game. Nonetheless, I still fancy both sides to score because Liverpool do look better than they were and Bolton look the best they have in a while under Coyle, the best since the days of Allardyce, in fact. Elmander has been given a new lease of life and should feature heavily, which is mandatory really to distract everyone from the Ivan Klasnic rape saga that has been banded about by the media lately. Bolton attack much better under Coyle whilst maintaining their physical style so I expect them to give Liverpool the same kind of rough ride here that they gave Manchester United earlier in the season. I therefore expect a good game with plenty of goals but ultimately, backing both sides to score at 4/5 looks a good bet to me today. 

Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.

Mainz 05 vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

This game is a gambler’s nightmare with the way both sides have been playing so far this season! Both sides have been impeccable and although Dortmund edge this on the quality front, this should still be a close game and as a result, I won’t be touching the 1×2 market.

However, I do like the idea of this game going over 2.5 goals. Mainz are a strong defensive side but they’ve attacked clinically this season whereas Dortmund have attacked in a much more flambuoyant manner and defended like clowns as a result. Mainz average scoring two goals per home game and Dortmund haven’t played an away game this season that they’ve not conceded in (in the Bundesliga) so I expect at least one Mainz goal here. Dortmund have tremendous belief and some fantastic players however, hence their record of four wins in four Bundesliga away games, so I expect a cracking game here. Dortmund miss Owomoyela, Kehl, Hajnal, Zidan, and Kringe for this game and have doubts over Bender, Goetze, and Kagawa, although the majority of the first part of that list are long-term absentees anyway. Mainz miss Heller, Simak, Mueller, and Gopko for this game but again, most are long-term injuries.

This is a bold call as the last six meetings between these two sides have gone comfortably under 2.5 goals but neither side has looked as good as they do now for many years so I think it’s time for a change. Both are attacking well and Dortmund aren’t defending well, not to mention that their focus may well be on their trip to France to face Paris Saint-Germain next week, so I fancy this game to go over 2.5 goals today.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Panserraikos vs Kavala – away win with draw no bet at evens.

Panserraikos completed a gruelling 120 minutes of football mid-week against minnows Aetos Skydra in the Greek Cup, eventually winning 0-2. However, Panserraikos now face the arduous task of taking on physical Kavala at home with the knowledge that they’ve lost five out of seven games already this season, including two defeats in three home games. Kavala are no world-beaters but they’re very well-organised and extremely physical so this is the last game you’d want when your thin squad is already stretched from a tiring mid-week game. Kavala are unbeaten in their three Super League away games this season and eased to victory at little Panahaiki mid-week in the Greek Cup and thus bring impressive momentum into this game with no defeats in seven matches, winning four out of their last five. Kavala are not a prolific side – few Super League sides are, really – but Nigerian striker Onwuachi is in good form and with eight goals scored in their last four games, you have to feel that Kavala can once again impress on the road and take points off their inferior hosts. The visitors don’t score many goals so I would cover this selection with draw no bet but I’d be astounded if Kavala lost this one today.

Team news – Panserraikos miss Vrucina and Kavala miss Douglao for this game.

Verdict: Kavala to win with draw no bet at evens.

Palermo vs Lazio – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.

I make a point of never betting against Palermo at home because they’re so hard to face there but this bet does hold water today. Palermo have a tough trip to Russia in a few days to take on CSKA Moscow in a game that they frankly have to take something from if they intend on progressing in the UEFA Europa League so I fancy them to rest players here. Palermo have looked less convincing this season following the departures of Kjaer and Cavani over the summer, not to mention now that Miccoli is out for some time so it’s no real surprise that they’re not doing as well at home as they normally would. Defeat at out-of-sorts Udinese last weekend is sure to have hurt the Palermo team and I think they’re going to be a tad vulnerable today. Lazio are not the side to face this season if your side is not firing on all cylinders as Lazio are very highly-motivated and now have some very good players available to them at long last. They’re unbeaten in eight consecutive games in all competitions and have won seven of those games so momentum and confidence is very high for the Roman outfit today. They’ve won three consecutive away games, including a tough trip to Fiorentina, so don’t underestimate Lazio today. Lazio currently lead the league table, interestingly enough, and have won three out of their four away games this season so I hope this won’t become a “public bet”! Nonetheless, I still fancy Lazio to do some damage here although I’d definitely cover this bet with draw no bet because no trip to Palermo is easy – I just think the hosts are missing too many big players and will have their attention elsewhere for this game.

Team news – Palermo miss Liverani, Rigoni, and Miccoli for this game whilst having doubts over the fitness of both Cassani and Darmian for this game. Lazio miss Meghni and Cavanda for this game whilst having doubts over the fitness of Radu, Gonzalez, Del Nero, Diakite, and Kozak for this game although Radu is the only absentee I’d be concerned about for Lazio.

Verdict: Lazio to win with draw no bet at 11/10.

Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.

Lech Poznan are on the verge of firing manager Zielinski after he publicly admitted this week that he “doesn’t know” what the problem is with the team. Rumours are abroad over potential replacements with ex-Polonia Warsaw manager Jose Maria Bakero being the favourite to replace him. Either way, his future will surely be decided after this game against giants Wisla Krakow as Lech simply cannot afford to drop more points. However, the fact is that they look likely to do so because they’re not playing well and they’re focusing far too much on European football rather than their domestic campaign. Lech have problems with star defender Arboleda, who has reportedly asked for his wages to be doubled and basically aren’t presenting a united front here, which is naturally a big problem.

However, troublesome Wisla Krakow are finally doing the opposite by presenting a united front themselves. The work of Maaskant can finally be seen with Wisla ominously beginning to get into their stride. Wisla still aren’t at their best as they’re not scoring goals freely but they’re in far better condition than Lech Poznan currently are so I fancy them to do some damage today. Wisla’s 5-2 win against Lechia Gdansk at weekend was flattering but still well-earned and ironically their mid-week Puchar Polski win against Widzew Lodz failed to reflect how easily Wisla dominated the game. I think Wisla have enough about them to do Lech a lot of damage today if they take their chances as the hosts are a bit of a mess at the moment so my call is the away win with draw no bet at 11/10.

Team news – Lech miss Wojtkowiak, Drygas, and have doubts over the fitness of Bandrowski whilst Wisla miss Boguski, Jovanic, Kowalski, and have doubts over the fitness of Sobolewski and Chavez.

Verdict: Wisla Krakow to win with draw no bet at 11/10.

Terek Grozny vs Spartak Nalchik – no bet

This game is supposedly a fixed home win so I’d avoid betting on this game at all costs!

Verdict: No bet

Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Getafe – home win at 10/11.

Athletic lost a fascinating 4-3 game at Sevilla CF in their last match in which defence was abandoned and samba football took over. This wasn’t entirely unexpected, however, as any readers on here will tell you as Bilbao were missing both Ocio and Amorebieta from defence, which means their two centre-backs are a little vulnerable. Although that problem is still present, the compact pitch at San Mames will help Bilbao defend much more efficiently and let’s face it – if they score three times in this game then they’re going to win the game. Getafe are one of the stranger sides in this division that bizarrely loses about 50% of their productivity on the field by simply playing away from home and just one win in four away games this season shows that well, particularly as they’ve lost two of them. Bilbao have won this game for three out of the last five seasons that it’s been played and with Getafe missing some big attacking players i.e. Gavilan, I fancy Bilbao to make the most of their home advantage, especially after a good win at Alcorcon mid-week.

Bilbao are the better of these two sides and although Getafe are capable of playing good football, they don’t score enough goals currently and are facing one of the toughest away trips in the division. Bilbao’s Llorente is in top form and I’d even be happy enough with the hosts -1.5 if they weren’t missing Amorebieta for this game but as they are, I’ll stay with the home win, which is generously priced at 10/11 although over 2.5 goals looks intriguing too.

Team news – Athletic miss Ibai Gomez, Aitor Ocio, Igor Martinez, Castillo, David Lopez, Inigo Perez, Jon Aurtenexte, Fernando Amorebieta, and Jonas Ramalho for this one. Getafe miss Casquero, Mane, Gavilan, Miguel Torres, Mario, and Kas for this one.

Verdict: Athletic Club de Bilbao to win at 10/11.

Accumulator fodder:

Litex Lovech, Colo Colo, Daugava Daugavpils, Liepajas Metalurgs, Ekranas Panevezys, Roda JC Kerkrade, Legia Warsaw, Zenit St.Petersburg, Dynamo Kiev, Deportivo Petare, The New Saints.

Recommended bets:

Legia Warsaw, Athletic Club de Bilbao, and Roda JC Kerkrade at 3/1.

Colo Colo, Deportivo Petare, and Audax Italiano at 3/1.

Club Brugge vs Standard de Liege & Racing Genk vs Anderlecht – both games to go over 2.5 goals at 2/1.