Dinamo Bucharest vs Gaz Metan Medias
FreeToday’s featured game after a boring few days is the Romanian Liga game between giants Dinamo Bucharest and well-organised Gaz Metan Medias. The hosts would perhaps be blind favourites to win this game and the bookies’ odds suggest that they agree with that sentiment. However, I’m not convinced, personally – they’ve been convincing quite rarely this season!
The problem I have with Dinamo Bucharest is a pretty big one in that I don’t believe they can defend. In fact, I’m fairly confident that if you instructed Dinamo Bucharest to defend under the threat of having their lives terminated if they failed to defend then I genuinely believe they’d all be dead by now.
I don’t know why it is that they can’t defend, however. They have the necessary players but if it doesn’t work then it simply doesn’t work, I guess. Attack-wise, I cannot fault Dinamo Bucharest at all. I’d arguably call them the most potent attacking force in Romania currently and the Liga table supports me as they’ve notched up twenty-nine goals in twelve Liga games. Liviu Ganea and Marius Niculae are experienced enough to know how to find the net, particularly the latter of those two, and with pacey Gabriel Torje, playmaker Munteanu, strong N’Doye, and both Andrei and Adrian Cristea in support of each attack, Dinamo Bucharest have the potential to score five goals against just about anyone in Romania. It’s got to be a massive concern for the supposed title contenders, however, that the only two sides to have conceded more goals in the Romanian Liga this season are new to the division (Universitatea Cluj and Sportul Studentesc respectively) and that one of those is currently bottom of the table. Dinamo have played six home games in the Liga this season and they’ve not kept a clean sheet in any of those games despite two of them being against newly-promoted sides! Indeed, they’ve conceded seven goals in those two games alone so it’s anyone guess as to how many they could potentially concede today!
Dinamo Bucharest have scored and conceded in every home game this season with all six games going over 2.5 goals, which makes over 2.5 goals at evens look interesting. However, my tip today includes a good display for Gaz Metan Medias, who generally don’t travel well so it’s an interesting call to make. I don’t doubt Dinamo’s defence being bad enough to concede but will Gaz Metan attack enough to score? I think they can and that they will. Gaz Metan are notorious in the Liga for being a well-organised side that are hard to beat, although that’s atypically in their home games. You can view them as a slightly more average version of league leaders Otelul Galati, although it’s worth pointing out that Otelul aren’t much better themselves despite their misleading league placing!
Anyway – Gaz Metan’s away form this season has been surprisingly good with just one defeat in six games, winning three times along the way. The only reason that they ever do well on the road is if their iron defence bails them out and sure enough they’ve got the best defence in the division currently away from home – they’ve leaked just three goals in six away games – so the visitors are rapidly proving to be a force wherever they’re faced. I’d argue that that the sides that Gaz Metan have faced haven’t been particularly good for one reason or another but Gaz Metan have done their job well so my hat goes off to them.
Now for the good news, however – Gaz Metan have failed to score here in both visits since they were promoted a couple of years ago, losing both games 1-0. However, Dinamo have never looked as susceptible in defence as they do now and having conceded against far worse sides than Gaz Metan, I fancy them to do so tonight. Gaz Metan’s problem is scoring goals, something that is well-illustrated by the fact that none of their strikers have scored a goal after twelve rounds of fixtures, heaping the pressure on Brazilian midfielder Oliveira, who has bagged about 85% of their goals. Nonetheless, Dinamo are bad enough at the back to give them ample opportunities to score and given Gaz Metan’s stringent tactical displays, I’m going to boldly assume that they’ll devise a way to get past an inept Dinamo defence today and score at least once.
Can Gaz Metan cause an upset here? Possibly. The odds are good enough to take a chance on but I’m not convinced because Dinamo are so good in attack that I expect them to score at will tonight, despite Gaz Metan’s defensive prowess. Gaz Metan were dealt a body blow by losing at home to Otelul Galati last match, which is a game that they frankly shouldn’t be losing, which is what puts me off laying Dinamo here. However, the odds of 6/5 on both sides scoring in a game where the hosts cannot defend but are under constant pressure to attack looks interesting to me, although Gaz Metan’s ineptitude in front of goal is concerning. Either way, having seen the Dinamo defence numerous times this season, the odds of 6/5 on both sides scoring is still too generously priced so that’s my call today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 6/5.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Viktoria Plzen vs Teplice – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
So – Viktoria Plzen are still top of the Gambrinus Liga, despite being brought back down to earth with a heavy bang last match as they were drubbed 4-2 by Mlada Boleslav. I bet some people still think backing Viktoria Plzen to win this game at 1/2 is a good price as well, and perhaps it will be – it’s not in my eyes though.
You see, as much as I respect Viktoria Plzen, they’re still not a particularly good side, in my humble opinion. They’re very well-organised, they’re clinical, they’ve got some good and experienced players, and their never-say-die attitude is the best in the Czech Republic, in my view. However, their defeat at Mlada last match was their first Gambrinus Liga defeat of the season – we really need to be sitting back here and observing just how they respond to that defeat. They’re good enough to bounce back, yes, but the only way I’d touch Viktoria Plzen at 1/2 would be if they were hosting Bohemians 1905 or Usti nad Labem – not a good Teplice side!
Teplice may have had a sluggish start to their campaign but they’re still a top five side in my opinion. They’ve lost some good players this season, sadly, one of which was playmaker Vachousek to Sparta Prague. Interestingly enough, however, Teplice have really galvanised in the last few weeks despite missing some big names and they’ve impressed me by doing so. Ironically, their run was started by a 3-3 draw at Mlada Boleslav, where today’s hosts fell foul of a suicidal open-football approach – you can’t do that at Mlada and win unless you’re Sparta Prague! Teplice almost got caught in the trap but narrowly avoided defeat and have benefited since then, winning five consecutive games in all competitions, one of which was at a superior and in-form Sparta Prague side, impressively, so Teplice aren’t to be underestimated here.
My big problem with Teplice is that they generally don’t score many goals. Their success has long stemmed from their ability in defence, not in attack, so it should be interesting to see how they approach this game today. Teplice are good enough tactically to take advantage of Plzen’s defence in this game, particularly after the mauling that today’s hosts took in their last game so I fancy Teplice to bag at least once here. Can they get a result here? I’d say they can, to be honest, which is why I wouldn’t touch the 1×2 market for this game. However, my interest is in over 2.5 goals for this one, risky as it is with one side specialising in defence and the other over-achieving. That said, the last three meetings between these two sides have gone over 2.5 goals and all of Plzen’s home games this season in the Gambrinus Liga have gone over 2.5 goals so I think it’s worth a shot at 4/5, especially as Plzen have no pressure on them with nobody pre-season genuinely expecting them to be in the position that they’re currently in.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Gornik Polkowice vs Pogon Szezecin – home win at 11/10.
This should be a closer game than the Liga 1 table suggests but the bet still interests me. Gornik Polkowice aren’t as good as their league placing suggests and Pogon are a lot better than their league placing suggests but the league placing of both sides tells a story in itself with the hosts giving everything in each game and getting their just rewards whereas their visitors have approached the season lazily and as a result they’re struggling.
Gornik have adapted to life in Liga 1 very well indeed following promotion last season and have substantially impressed me throughout their current campaign as a result, especially in their home games. It sounds obvious to say it but home games are a massive factor in any sides’s success in this division because the shitty pitches can really favour home sides and it’s important for sides like Gornik to take advantage of that, particularly when there are sides like LKS Lodz that are simply a lot better than they are. Gornik don’t score many goals by nature, which is a handicap and is the reason they’re yet to win an away game. However, their tactics at home are generally immaculate with five wins in seven games, losing just once along the way against a decent Sandecja Nowy Sacz side so the hosts are very much the tough customer here. Gornik claimed a superb draw at a very good Flota Swinoujscie last match in a very hard-fought game so the hosts should have enough momentum to make it count today, especially as that draw followed on a win at home to Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski.
Therefore, it’s all down to Pogon to stop their tough hosts and I don’t believe they’ve got the morale or the spirit to do so today. They’ve definitely got the ability; that’s simply not in question. They’ve even got some momentum following a dominant 3-0 win at home to Kolejarz Stroze in their last game, although their opponents were terrible in the game. However, there’s simply way too much reliance on ex-Wisla Krakow striker Moskalewicz as Pogon look completely ineffectual in attack without him. Depending on an older player has its biggest drawback on the road because age catches up with you on unfamiliar surfaces and I genuinely believe that’s the reason that Pogon have lost five out of seven on the road this season. Shoddy defending certainly hasn’t helped but a lack of goal threat is a big problem and against a strong Gornik defence today, I don’t envision their luck nor goal tally improving.
This bet does carry a lot of risk, as I’ve touched upon already, because Pogon are better than Gornik. However, Gornik are still on their honeymoon period in the division, especially at home, and Pogon are finding games like this very hard to be a part of so I fancy the home win at 11/10 although I’d leave it if the odds drop.
Verdict: Gornik Polkowice to win at 11/10.
Bursaspor vs Fenerbahce – home win at 3/2.
What is the actual status of the Super Lig hierachy at the moment? I’m intrigued to obtain opinion from any of our Turkish friends on this because I genuinely can’t say. Galatasaray are horrendous, Fenerbahce are relying far too heavily on one or two class acts, Besiktas aren’t playing well, and Bursaspor are the workers with a couple of good players. Are we really going to see Trabzonspor lead the Super Lig table at the end of this season?! It’s been a long time coming if so!
Anyway, I digress; this game is an important one between two of Turkey’s more prominent sides in the current era and my decision tonight is to favour the newcomers Bursaspor. Why? I think they’re in better shape to win it, simply put. A lot of people have criticised them for their display against Manchester United but I feel that’s really harsh – this is a new side to European football, and a somewhat inexperienced side at that, and they were playing at one of the most famous venues in the world – I doubt adapting to that atmosphere and style of football would be something that simply “happens” on the night.
I personally thought Bursaspor played rather well despite my beloved Manchester United’s somewhat impotent display, enough so for me to back Bursaspor to win at a tough Ankaragucu last weekend before I sadly removed the tip from my final drafts. It sounds very coincidental, I know, but you should all know by now that I don’t talk shit on here – I see no point in boasting about such things. However, Bursaspor ran riot and demolished Ankaragucu 1-5 and thus they bring some good momentum into this game. They have a largely full squad to choose from with only playmaker Insua and defender Tandogan doubts for this game, which is pleasing. The Turkish Football Association have generously allowed this match to be played on a friday night, which aids Bursaspor’s ailing Champions League campaign by giving them an extra day’s rest ahead of Manchester United’s visit. However, Bursaspor need to win this game tonight to continue their title challenge and to be honest, I actually expect them to do so, as bold as that sounds. They overcame Fenerbahce twice last season, once at home and once on the road, so they’re definitely capable of doing so. Criticise Bursaspor all you like but this side have won seven out of nine Super Lig games this season and have drawn the other two, thus remaining unbeaten, despite having a Champions League campaign to juggle. How many other sides can claim that kind of record in their maiden Champions League season? Not many at all!
Fenerbahce could be very concerned ahead of this game and I genuinely believe that they should be too. The league table is misleading, in my opinion – they’re not playing well at all. Goalscoring has long been a forté of the giants of the Super Lig but is that coming from Fenerbahce’s superiority? No, it’s not – it’s coming from the playmaking genius of Alex and the inspired signing of Senegalese striker Niang, who are their best two players by a long distance, in my opinion, and neither should be playing football at this level when they’re still capable of playing in bigger and better leagues. However, individual choices mean that my opinion is utterly redundant here so I shan’t dwell on it.
What I will say, however, is that Fenerbahce are not looking strong. There’s far too many “maybe” players in this side to convince me. The only players I like in this Fener side are the afore-mentioned Niang and Alex and possibly Dia, Emre, and Erkin Caner. I don’t think I’m being a harsh judge with that statement; I just don’t rate the remainder of Fenerbahce’s squad greatly. Again, my opinion on Fenerbahce’s flattering Super Lig record of late lies squarely in the hands of Alex and Niang so it’s no surprised that those two have scored nearly half of Fenerbahce’s goals this season. Niang has bagged seven in eight and is the best striker in the division, simply put, but he happily won’t be playing tonight, which lends my tip a hefty boost! Indeed, Fenerbahce’s backbone has taken a massive blow with key centre-back Lugano missing, not to mention regulars Dia and Sahin from midfield. Hurmaci and Guiza are long-term absentees so there’s nothing new there but Fenerbahce are looking a bit vulnerable here, particularly as they’ve conceded quite a lot on the road this season by their lofty standards – an average of two goals per away game! It won’t help their morale that they drew the massive home derby with Galatasaray in their last game with their bitter rivals looking weaker than ever with Rijkaard having departed and few good players in their side and yet Fenerbahce were unable to break through and thus the game ended 0-0. Bluntly, Fenerbahce are looking quite susceptible here so I fancy them to suffer a third consecutive defeat against the reigning Super Lig champions here.
That said, caution must be used here. Fenerbahce are capable of scoring goals, irrespective of who is missing from their side, as it’s all they’re good at. However, there’s a lot in Bursaspor’s favour here that makes me think they’re going to do well in this game and their consistency in the Super Lig this season has impressed me massively, something that Fenerbahce have struggled with. I therefore feel that 3/2 on the home win is priced a little too generously so that’s my recommendation tonight.
Team news – Bursaspor have doubts over Ali Tandogan and Federico Insua whilst Fenerbahce have a hefty absentee list including Niang, Isser Dia, Lugano, Hurmaci, Guiza, and Sahin.
Verdict: Bursaspor to win at 3/2.
Accumulator fodder:
Estudiantes De La Plata, Austria Lustenau, Zwolle, RKC Waalwijk, SL Benfica, Vaslui, MSK Zilina, Bangor City.
Recommended bets:
SL Benfica, Bangor City, and Bursaspor at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Olimpo vs Huracan (4) 2-1
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Atletico Lanus (8) under 2.5 goals
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United (7) under 2.5 goals
Austrian Liga 1:
Austria Lustenau vs Gratkorn (8)
First Vienna vs Hartberg (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Grodig vs Admira Wacker (7) over 2.5 goals
WAC/St.Andra vs St.Polten (5)
SCR Altach vs Lustenau (7)
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Charleroi vs Kortrijk (6) under 2.5 goals
Chilean Primera Division:
San Luis vs Union Espanola (5) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Viktoria Plzen vs Teplice (6) both sides to score, over 2.5 goals
Danish 1st Division:
HB Koge vs Roskilde (4) draw no bet, over 2.5 goals
Ecudorian Primera A:
Independiente vs Liga de Quito (6) 1-2
El Nacional Quito vs Universidad Catolica (7) under 2.5 goals
Manta vs Espoli Cayambe (6) 1-0
French Ligue 2:
Angers SCO vs Troyes (4) draw no bet
Boulogne vs Reims (6) under 2.5 goals
Clermont Foot vs Metz (5) under 2.5 goals
Dijon FCO vs Nantes (5)
Grenoble Foot vs AC Ajaccio (6)
Istres vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (6)
Le Havre vs Le Mans (6)
Nimes vs Stade Lavallois (5) under 2.5 goals
Sedan-Ardennes vs Vannes OC (7) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich vs SC Freiburg (5) 2-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin (4) under 2.5 goals
Greuther Furth vs Erzgebirge Aue (7) over 2.5 goals
FSV Frankfurt vs Paderborn (6)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Debreceni VSC vs Kaposvari Rakoczi (7) over 2.5 goals
Fehervar vs Budapest Honved (6) 2-1
Irish Premier League:
Bohemians vs Dundalk (7) 2-1
Bray Wanderers vs Shamrock Rovers (6) 1-2
Drogheda United vs Galway United (4) 1-1
Sligo Rovers vs St.Patrick’s Athletic (6) 1-1
Sporting Fingal vs UCD (6) 1-0
Italian Serie A:
Genoa vs Internazionale (4) 1-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
MVV Maastricht vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (4)
Zwolle vs Almere City (8) -1.5 handicap
RKC Waalwijk vs Dordrecht ’90 (8) over 2.5 goals
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Telstar (7)
Emmen vs RBC Roosendaal (5) over 2.5 goals
Den Bosch vs Sparta Rotterdam (6)
Eindhoven vs Go Ahead Eagles (5)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
GKS Belchatow vs Widzew Lodz (6) under 2.5 goals
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Polonia Warsaw (5) 2-1
Polish Liga 1:
Gornik Polkowice vs Pogon Szezecin (6)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
SL Benfica vs Pacos de Ferreira (8) 2-0
Romanian Liga:
Vaslui vs Victoria Branesti (8) 2-0
Dinamo Bucharest vs Gaz Metan Medias (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Russian Premier League:
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Rubin Kazan (7) 1-2
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
MSK Zilina vs Dukla Banska Bystrica (8) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Recreativo de Huelva vs Celta de Vigo (6) under 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Bursaspor vs Fenerbahce (6) 2-1
Welsh Premier League:
Bangor City vs Bala Town (8) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!