Evian Thonon Gaillard vs Tours
FreeToday’s featured game is the French Ligue 2 game between Evian Thonon Gaillard and Tours. The hosts are new to Ligue 2 but haven’t shown any sign of inexperience after some very convincing displays so they’ll be confident for this game tonight. Tours have been in this division for some time now but have a weaker squad than in previous years so I don’t expect too much from them this year.
I mentioned Evian’s rare home advantage during their convincing home win over Vannes OC and it’s going to be a strong factor for them this season. Basically, they play a good deal higher than the majority of European clubs so they do possess an altitude advantage here. Interestingly enough, that’s not their only strength either as they boast a very capable side, something that they’ve shown well since gaining promotion to Ligue 2. They’ve won three out of three games thus far despite two being away from home and only Istres can match their record of being yet to concede a goal. Evian have already won at giants Metz and Nantes respectively this season so you can get some idea of how well they’re actally playing. They’re currently averaging scoring over two goals per game and with confidence high following an excellent start to their campaign, you have to feel that Evian are a very real threat currently.
Tours don’t travel well in this division either way but to take on the unfamiliar journey up into the mountains? I bet they don’t fancy this at all! Tours have long been a “home side” and have shown such this season by already overcoming Sedan-Ardennes and Clermont Foot respectively. However, a 1-0 defeat at Istres is the more relevant result when comparing Tours’ displays so far this season as they’re a totally different side away from home. Tours are nowhere near the dominant force that they were two years ago and I actually expect them to do rather poorly this season. However, new Ivorian striker Guie has different ideas with an impressive six goals in three games so Tours are looking a tad more potent than they actually are. I wouldn’t put it past Tours to sneak a goal here but their ultimately atrocious away form coupled with their high altitude trip should really spell disaster for Tours tonight.
Evian should really take the initiative here and build on their strong run of form against one of the poorest away sides in Ligue 2 tonight with some ease. Odds of 10/11 are about right for this game but there should still be money to be made on the home win tonight.
Verdict: Evian Thonon Gaillard to win at 10/11.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Hradec Kralove vs Jablonec – away win at 6/5.
I’m placing a great deal of faith in Jablonec considering that they’ve not greatly impressed me this season. However, I was impressed to see them come from behind at home last match against a stubborn Bohemians 1905 side to win 3-1 so I’m going to ride with Jablonec’s momentum as they are now focusing entirely on their domestic campaign. Jablonec also possess a very dangerous attack with youngsters Tomas Pekhart and Jan Vosahlik bearing the banner for Jablonec, surprisingly leaving experienced striker Lafata in the shallow end of the goals pool! Pekhart was always going to be a big talent ever since he came through the Slavia Prague academy but Tottenham Hotspur didn’t feel he had enough to succeed so they sold him to Jablonec, which is a great move for today’s visitors. Their defence needs a bit of work but Jablonec’s attack is and will be very good so I’ll give them their chances today. It also helps that Hradec are a truly terrible side so I don’t rate their chances here. They’ve had their moment of glory as they overcame giants Sparta Prague on the opening day of the season but have been poor since then, conceding far too easily and not even scoring in their past two games. They’re in a dangerous position here, hosting a Jablonec side that are threatening to erupt into a run of good form, so I fear for the hosts today. If the real Jablonec turn up then odds of 6/5 on this game are a pure bargain. Either way, there should still be value here as there’s a significant quality difference between the two sides.
Verdict: Jablonec to win at 6/5.
Viborg vs Skive – away win with draw no bet at 13/8.
This is a fun bet but a potentially very good one. Viborg are the bigger of these two clubs and were dominant at home last season so Skive have their work cut out here. However, Viborg have started this season poorly with a bad draw at Roskilde and a weak defeat at home to Vestjaelland in their first two games. Viborg don’t concede many in general, especially at home, but they’re just not a goalscoring side so when they start a season as poorly as they have, it’s generally better to go against them. Skive are such a feisty and potent side that you can’t help but love them. They had everyone that uses my site shitting themselves at weekend when they fell two goals behind at home to newly-promoted Hobro but their belief and potency saw them score four times in the second-half to win 4-2. Skive don’t have a great defence but their enthusiasm and ability to find the net is truly astounding so I find it very hard to go against them, particularly on their excellent run of form which stretches back to the end of last season. Skive gave Viborg two tough games last season and I expect them to do the same today. I don’t think Skive will lose this game so I wanted to lay Viborg but the bookies have unfortunately remained a tad too vigilant for my liking by pricing it at 8/11 so I’m not touching it. Instead, I’ll take a bold stab at the away win with draw no bet at good odds but this is certainly a risky bet so approach with caution.
Verdict: Skive to win with draw no bet at 13/8.
Stade Lavallois vs Nantes – home win at 23/20.
Laval haven’t convinced me totally yet this season so I’d approach this game with a degree of caution. However, my stems from the fact that Nantes are now a very poor side – well, in front of goal, at least. They’ve yet to find the net in two consecutive home games and the only goals they have managed to score were at newly-promoted Troyes, who already look destined for relegation this season. Nantes are a lot weaker than they used to be and in my eyes, they’re there for the taking. Laval are a very good side in terms of keeping possession and not losing games but their big problem has long been scoring goals. However, with an impotent Nantes side that are conceding a little too easily at the moment as their opponents today, I have to favour the hosts to sneak a goal somewhere along the way at decent odds of 23/20.
Verdict: Stade Lavallois to win at 23/20.
Helmond Sport vs AGOVV Appeldoorn – home win at 21/20.
I find it hard to write previews at the start of campaigns like this so I’ll be brief. I mentioned last week that the majority of the Eerste Divisie has changed due to financial meltdown but Helmond Sport are one of the few sides that still have a good enough squad to compete for promotion. They played well enough to overcome Den Bosch in their opening game of the season so they do bring some momentum into this game and they were generally strong at home last season too so I favour them today. AGOVV Appeldoorn had a very strong campaign last time around but they’ve been one of the worst-hit sides financially, losing masses of players over the summer and thus have a much weaker squad. They’re not going to be amongst the relegation candidates this year, in my opinion, but I doubt you’ll see them above twelfth. For me, the odds on the home win are too generous here and don’t take into consideration AGOVV’s problems over the summer so I fancy Helmond quite a lot here.
Verdict: Helmond Sport to win at 21/20.
Polonia Warsaw vs Zaglebie Lubin – home win with -1.5 handicap at 31/20.
Polonia Warsaw have made a dream start to their Ekstraklasa campaign with a comfortable and dominant 2-0 win at newly-promoted Gornik Zabrze being followed up by the 3-0 hammering of bitter rivals Legia Warsaw. Polonia spirits are high and they should be – they’ve got a very good future currently with a very good manager (Bakero) and some very talented players in their side. Only Ruch Chorzow can match Polonia’s record of not conceding an Ekstraklasa goal year and Polonia’s confidence is through the roof following their win against Legia last week so I really fancy them tonight. Poland’s forgotten striker Ebi Smolarek finally got his name on the scoresheet in the 3-0 win against Legia and the displays of Polonia favourite Mierzejewski can only encourage this arising club so I expect a very strong display from them today.
Zaglebie have a terrific head-to-head record against Polonia Warsaw and it’d put me off this bet had Polonia not drastically improved the quality of their side over the summer. Zaglebie are playing in their usual fashion; not scoring enough goals and conceding too easily. They’ve already lost at home to newly-promoted Gornik Zabrze, which just isn’t good enough at this level, so they’ve managed to confirm that they’ll be in the relegation battle this year as expected, in my eyes. Zaglebie miss midfielder Plizga until the end of this year through injury and also miss Kedziora, leaving Zaglebie with just one striker – Dokic – who isn’t reliable at the best of times. The departures of Micanski to Kaiserslautern hurt this side over the transfer window and with problems mounting against them, I really don’t fancy them to continue their excellent run of four consecutive wins against Polonia Warsaw at either ground.
This bet does involve Zaglebie not scoring, in my opinion, so do approach with caution. However, Polonia have looked dominant and potent so really should make it count tonight against their inferior opponents. The odds are about right for a home win but look a bit too generous on the handicap so backing Polonia -1.5 tonight looks a potentially very good bet.
Verdict: Polonia Warsaw to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 31/20.
Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warsaw – home win with draw no bet at evens.
This is a risky bet but I’m going against Legia until they bed their new signings in. God only knows how Legia actually managed to beat a new-look Cracovia Krakow earlier this week although the Cracovia manager was quick to point out that the referee played a great role in that victory. The defeat was harsh on Cracovia, who matched Legia and even bettered them for large sections of the game so it’s fair to say Legia aren’t firing on all cylinders yet. Indeed, the poor communication between defenders leaves them looking so vulnerable at the back that I had to go against them today as they’ve shipped four goals in two games now. It doesn’t help that Legia place this additional pressure on their nervous and unconvincing goalkeepers by defending poorly so Legia look likely to concede against just about everyone at the moment. It’s not all bad news for Legia, however, with Brazilian starlet Bruno Mezenga expected to finally have international clearance to play and he should really dominate this league. However, Slask have their own starlet in the making in Argentinian striker Cristian Diaz, whom they captured from Bolivian club San Jose in the transfer window. His pace adds a massive potency to Slask Wroclaw’s attack and he’s arguably the quickest striker in the Ekstraklasa currently, which is a terrific boost in a league of predominantly slow defenders. Diaz isn’t short either so he’s got the makings of an out-and-out striker which Slask are making great use of. They’ve claimed two good results so far this season with a draw at home to Jagiellonia Bialystok and a win at new-look Cracovia Krakow despite trailing so you can see the belief in their side too. Slask could potentially be dark horses in the Ekstraklasa this year and I think this could be a telling game in that aspect. Either way, I think Slask look a better team than Legia’s bunch of misfits at the moment so taking the home win with draw no bet at evens looks a good bet although taking both sides to score also looks very interesting too.
Verdict: Slask Wroclaw to win with draw no bet at evens.
Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala vs Odra Wodzislaw – home win at 4/5.
I wasn’t initially going to take this bet because I felt the hosts were too short despite Odra’s departed players over the transfer window but even now Odra are losing players by the day so I can’t not go against them here. Odra have really galvanised as a unit, which is very impressive considering the turmoil of the club over the summer, which was another reason I was hesitant to take the home win today. However, Odra’s issues with striker Bueno continue to rage on with the player now having his suspension lifted by the club but his fine increased eightfold although he now refuses to play for the club so it’s a bit of a mire, really! Unfortunately for Odra, they’re facing a side that are very much the essence of the word “team” at the moment – in-form league leaders Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala. They’ve won two out of their three games already this season, remaining unbeaten throughout, and scoring a hefty eight goals along the way. They destroyed Nieciecza 5-0 on the road last match which not only demonstrates the very real relegation possibility for Nieciecza but also shows the promotion credentials of tonight’s hosts. Momentum and potency massively favours the hosts tonight, particularly against an Odra side yet to play in a game that they’ve not conceded in, so I fancy the home win here. Odra’s run has to end at somepoint and it would be somewhat expected if it failed against a side with great spirit, just as Podbeskidzie have, so I recommend the home win at 4/5 although I’d be careful on backing it if the odds drop.
Verdict: Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala to win at 4/5.
Warta Poznan vs Lodzki KS – away win at 6/5.
Away wins in Liga 1 are hard to call but this one should be a good value bet today. Lodzki KS have long been one of the better sides in this division so it’s only a matter of time before they reclaim their Ekstraklasa status. It may even be this year – who knows? If their display againstt title favourites Piast Gliwice last match was anything to go by then this could very well be their year with Lodz unlucky not to win the game. Lodz have looked composed, strong, clinical, and always in control in their games so far this season with two goals scored in each of their three games played so their strength is unquestionable. They’ve also strengthened their squad with the acquisitions of Kosecki and Mieciel from Legia Warsaw, both of which are too good to play in this division, in my opinion. I’ll be surprised if Lodz don’t get promoted with this side. Their hosts Warta Poznan were tipped for a good season too, especially with the pre-season capture of Zbigniew Zakrzewski, but they’ve done the complete opposite and been truly awful. There’s only thirty-eight year old veteran striker Piotr Reiss lending any kind of composure to this side so they’re a bit of a mess at the moment. They’ve drawn with a weak Nieciecza at home, lost at home to new-look Odra Wodzislaw, and bafflingly managed to claim a draw at Katowice last match in a game where Warta were totally outplayed. Warta have drastically under-achieved thus far and this is a game where they really should be caught out by a very strong Lodz side. Liga 1 away wins are fairly rare but this should be one of them at generous odds of 6/5.
Verdict: Lodzki KS to win at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
NK Zagreb, AGF Aarhus, Shamrock Rovers, RKC Waalwijk, Sparta Rotterdam, Polonia Warsaw, Piast Gliwice, CFR Cluj, Rapid Bucharest, Llanelli, Aberystwyth Town.
Recommended bets:
Polonia Warsaw and Lodzki KS to win at 2/1.
Evian Thonon Gaillard and Jablonec at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Newells Old Boys vs Tigre (4) 1-1
Banfield vs Estudiantes De La Plata (5) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory (7) 1-1
Austrian Liga 1:
Austria Lustenau vs Lustenau (5) at least one red card in this game
First Vienna vs Gratkorn (4)
Grodig vs Hartberg (5) draw no bet
SCR Altach vs St.Polten (7) under 2.5 goals
WAC/St.Andra vs Admira Wacker (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Sint-Truiden vs Standard de Liege (4) 1-2
Chilean Primera Division:
O’Higgins vs Cobresal (6) 2-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
NK Zagreb vs Inter Zapresic (8) 2-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Hradec Kralove vs Jablonec (7) 0-2
Danish 1st Division:
Viborg vs Skive (4)
Roskilde vs AGF Aarhus (8)
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
NSI Runavik vs EB/Streymur (7) 2-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Jaro Pietarsaari vs IFK Mariehamn (5) 2-2
French Ligue 2:
Clermont Foot vs Angers SCO (6)
Evian Thonon Gaillard vs Tours (7)
Istres vs Dijon FCO (5) under 2.5 goals
Le Havre vs Reims (5) under 2.5 goals
Le Mans vs Chateauroux (6) over 2.5 goals
Metz vs Vannes OC (6)
Nimes vs Grenoble Foot (5)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Boulogne (7)
Troyes vs AC Ajaccio (5)
Stade Lavallois vs Nantes (6)
German Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich vs VFL Wolfsburg (6) 2-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Hertha BSC Berlin vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (7)
FSV Frankfurt vs Arminia Bielefeld (6)
Alemannia Aachen vs Union Berlin (5)
Irish Premier League:
Dundalk vs Bohemians (6) 0-1
Galway United vs Drogheda United (4) 2-1
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Sligo Rovers (7) 2-1
UCD vs Sporting Fingal (7) 0-0
Shamrock Rovers vs Bray Wanderers (8) 2-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs San Luis (5) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
BV Veendam vs Go Ahead Eagles (6)
Helmond Sport vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (7)
RKC Waalwijk vs Telstar (8)
RBC Roosendaal vs FC Eindhoven (5)
Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City (9) -1.5 handicap
Fortuna Sittard vs Den Bosch (6)
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Emmen (9) -1.5 handicap
Volendam vs Dordrecht ’90 (5)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Polonia Warsaw vs Zaglebie Lubin (8) -1.5 handicap
Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warsaw (4) 2-1, draw no bet
Polish Liga 1:
Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala vs Odra Wodzislaw (6) draw no bet
Piast Gliwice vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski (8) -1.5 handicap
Warta Poznan vs Lodzki KS (6) both sides to score
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Academica de Coimbra vs Olhanense (5) 2-1
Romanian Liga:
Sportul Studentesc vs CFR Cluj (8) 1-2
Rapid Bucharest vs Gloria Bistrita (8) 2-0
Russian Premier League:
Rostov-na-Donu vs Spartak Nalchik (6) 1-1
Turkish Super Lig:
Konyaspor vs Eskisehirspor (5) 0-0
Kayserispor vs Karabukspor (7) 2-0
Ukrainian Premier League:
Obolon Kiev vs Zorya Lugansk (6) 2-1
Welsh Premier League:
Aberystwyth Town vs Newtown (8) 2-0
Llanelli vs Port Talbot Town (9) 3-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!