Racing Genk vs Sint-Truiden
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Eerste Klasse game between Racing Genk and Sint-Truiden. This derby may not be among the more recognisable in Belgium but there should be an atmosphere tonight with Sint-Truiden floundering and Genk not in a dissimilar position. Both sides need points for different reasons so this game should be interesting to say the least.
So, why, why, why am I going for unders in a Genk game? Statistically speaking, it’s positively suicidal. If Genk are in form then unders is simply an alien word because this side can score goals for fun if they wish. However, Genk really aren’t doing that at the moment and more importantly, they’re not looking like doing it either. You can accept a bit of misfortune or a bad day at the office but when a side that specialises in scoring goals is not scoring goals, they have problems.
Genk have paid over the odds to sign full-back Tshimanga to help them at the back and to give an injury-ridden defence a bit of an alternative. I wouldn’t go over the top with his quality but he’s certainly a useful option for Genk right now. Joneleit and Vanden Borre miss out tonight though, which does harm their fragile defence. Midfielder Camus and young attacker Limbombe join them on the sidelines although Israeli striker Barda returns. I don’t know where Genk train but I can only presume that it’s a multi-storey car park as I cannot remember the last time that this team had a full squad to choose from!
Attacking potency – yes, Genk have it in abundance. Vossen is one of the better finishers in the division and if given the opportunity by Buffel, Benteke, de Bruyne etc. then both Vossen and Barda can score goals here. However, there’s something missing from Been’s Genk team and I don’t really know what it is. They’re just not creating enough chances nor playing with enough belief. Been tends to motivate his sides for big games but for a derby game that they’re expected to win, I’m just not sure that they’ll do the business here.
Don’t get me wrong – Sint-Truiden are pretty awful. Take Ghoochannejhad out of this side and they simply don’t have any firepower. Gregory Dufer can make things happen when given the space to do so but this side is so short on quality that it’s quite frightening. However, what they lack in firepower and quality they make up for in team spirit and tenacity. This side has drawn three consecutive games 0-0 going back into December and you could make a case for them realistically having lost all of them if things went as they should have. However, Sint-Truiden are still battling away and boss Van der Elst has to take the credit for that.
Sint-Truiden have a pretty length list of absentees but I’d argue that none of them are really integral to the team so I think Sint-Truiden will enter this game with a fairly decent squad and plenty of belief. Sint-Truiden have a reputation for pissing off the bigger sides in Belgium and as this is one of the games of the season for Sint-Truiden, I can’t imagine them working harder in any other game than this one.
When this fixture is reversed, it tends to produce a lot of goals. Sint-Truiden’s artificial pitch helps them upset Genk’s rhythm as they attack more but that gives Genk the power to counter-attack, which they do very well. However, when played in Genk, it tends to become a bit of the opposite with Sint-Truiden happy to sit back and wait for Genk to produce the goods and if Genk show up then they’ll win but if they don’t then a draw is not an unfamiliar result for this fixture.
Bluntly put, this game could go one of two ways, in my view; a dominating home win for Genk or a low-scoring draw. Genk aren’t doing enough to convince me that they’ll win this game heavily so I’m going to boldly call an under in a Genk game, which is pretty rare but I think quite likely today. For me, under 3 goals is well worth a punt at 4/5.
Verdict: Under 3 goals at 4/5.
Friday’s Picks
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Australian A-League:
Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix (6) 1-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk vs Sint-Truiden (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Finnish Liiga Cup:
JJK Jyvaskyla vs KuPS Kuopio (7) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
HJK Helsinki vs MyPa Anjalankoski (6) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga:
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Bayern Munich (7) 1-2
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs America (5) 1-1
Morelia vs San Luis (7) 1-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
ADO Den Haag vs Roda JC Kerkrade (5) 2-2
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Academica de Coimbra vs Uniao de Leiria (6) 1-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Alcoyano vs Almeria (4)
Turkish Super Lig:
Antalyaspor vs Besiktas JK (6) 0-1
Gaziantepspor vs Mersin Idmanyurdu (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!