Greece vs Argentina
FreeToday’s featured game is the World Cup encounter between Greece and Argentina. Greece have hardly set the world alight in this World Cup thus far but Argentina “have” in the sense that they’re being made to look like genuine World Cup contenders by being in a poor group. Nonetheless, Argentina have played well, to their credit, and should be able to do so again today.
Atypically, a side that has already qualified for the latter stages of the competition wouldn’t be interested in this game, and normally I’d agree. However, we must take into consideration what I call the “Maradona factor” i.e. Argentina are being run by a madman. Would you really be surprised if he actually selected his first team for this game? I really wouldn’t! As far as he is concerned, the world is against him and he has to prove them wrong every time so I think he’ll put more into this game than most people suspect. I’m open to being proven wrong, of course, but I think Argentina will take this game quite seriously.
That said, are we really concerned if they do field a “weakened” line-up? Oh no – we might see the likes of Aguero and Milito instead of Higuian and Messi – disastrous(!). Argentina have an arsenal of quality even in their second string so I have no doubts over their potency. Argentina have been shaky at the back all tournament long and I don’t expect that to change, irrespective of who they play there. However, I’m not envisioning great problems arising from that fact because frankly I don’t expect Greece to be attacking often enough for it to be a factor. Despite Maradona’s best attempts to ruin this side, the fact is that they have some tremendous individual talent and that should be more than evident today, either from the football-loving first team or the second string with a point to prove.
Moving onto Greece, however – not many people know what to think about them. On one hand, they were crushed by South Korea so very easily and yet they were tenacious and plucky against Nigeria, albeit after the Nigerians were reduced to ten men. So where does this leave them? Rehhagel always motivates his sides so I expect Greece to be up for the game. However, despite their random results in the tournament thus far, they’re still remarkably prone to one thing Argentina have in abundance – pace. Greece are a big and strong side but lack pace on many levels and it shows against energetic sides like South Korea. It even showed against Nigeria despite Greece winning the game so I think that factor is the most important one to be taken from Greece’s first two games.
Greece have to take something from this game – fact. Why? Well, I don’t see South Korea losing against Nigeria, which means Greece need at least a point here. They can’t take the risky of South Korea losing that game, in essence. That puts them in a very uncomfortable situation, in my opinion, because Rehhagel keeps his side defensive because that is their main strength. The Greeks being forced to attack horribly exposes them on the counter-attack and to top it off, they’re not good enough in taking their chances. They don’t have the incision nor the creativity to be a constant threat to their superior opponents today so I don’t think they’re going to be able to do anything. If Rehhagel had anything about himself then he’d field both Karagounis and Ninis to support a lone striker because they’re the most creative players that Greece have and they can expose Argentina through the middle. He won’t do that though – it’s just not his style. It’s that stubborn approach and the complete polar opposites between what Greece normally do and what Greece have to do that give me the extra confidence that Greece will lose this game comfortably today.
I find myself again backing Argentina in some context despite having zero faith in their inept manager – I must be insane! However, the odds are too good to overlook. Argentina have plenty of what Greece cannot defend effectively against and Greece cannot afford to defend in this game. Therefore, there could be a very heavy scoreline today so I fancy Argentina with a -1.75 goal handicap today and possibly even over 2.5 goals if you feel lucky and the odds are good enough.
Verdict: Argentina to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 13/8.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Mexico vs Uruguay – Uruguay to win at 10/3.
Before I begin this preview, I simply have to encourage you all to watch this game if possible because I think it’s going to be a classic game between two potent, hispanic sides, and you know what that means – goals and cards galore!
Admittedly, this game doesn’t carry the usual passion of the hispanic “derbies” because both sides are virtually through to the next round anyway already, barring a miracle result in the other game, but this should still be a heated contest because they are rivals of sorts, bizarrely. With that in mind, I think both sides will turn up more than the bookies expect.
The draw has been priced here at 3/4, which is unbelievable. I know a draw sees both sides through but seriously – I’m not accepting that World Cup games nowadays can be “bought”! Those odds just don’t make sense to me! Both sides will still want to win this game because they get an easier game next round if they win the group! With that in mind, it’s worth a thought to lay the draw at 5/4.
However, my backing today goes to Uruguay. I think they’re a far more complete side than Mexico and have demonstrated that on a more widespread scale in this tournament thus far. They’ve played better sides to be here, they know how to handle the pace and constant closing down, and most importantly – they know how to defend. France and South Africa defended poorly against Mexico but Uruguay have demonstrated that they know how to keep sides out, hence not conceding a goal yet. Uruguay occasionally have problems linking up their midfield to their attack but to be honest, it’s their only problem in my eyes, and one that Mexico shouldn’t have the capacity to exploit because they prefer their play down the flanks. Uruguay are the most potent of these two sides by a mile because they have good finishers of the ball, whereas Mexico have a lot of creative players but few clinical finishers.
What I like most about Uruguay is their ability to change tactics. They can adopt different styles in an instant and combat various attacks against them and few South American sides can boast that – even Brazil and Argentina don’t have that facility, in my opinion, so don’t underestimate Tabarez’s Uruguay side. Mexico will be as energetic as ever and will cause problems for Uruguay because that’s the only gameplan that they ever have and to be fair, it usually works – they almost always score somewhere along the line. However, as they indicated against South Africa in their opening game – they’re exceptionally prone in defence and pace is surprisingly what exploits it the most, something that Uruguay have a good deal of. Midget goalkeeper Perez is also too short to save pinpoint free-kicks and I think we could see a few opportunities for Uruguay to test him from them too as this should be quite the heated game for no particular reason!
My main problem with this bet is that I don’t know what line-up each coach will field. However, I’m sticking with Uruguay because as I touched upon briefly earlier – they have more depth and more tactical options and thus are the better side overall. I expect Mexico to have their biggest test of the tournament so far and although they’ll give it their all, I still think Uruguay will edge this one – I’ve got something like 2-1 in my head – and it’s hard not to back a winner in this game at such generous odds!
Verdict: Uruguay to win at 10/3.
France vs South Africa – under 2.5 goals at 4/6, South Africa to win with draw no bet at 5/4.
I’m so glad that France are at this tournament – well, from an English perspective at least – because these guys make England look well-organised and unlucky. Honestly, the French even hate their own arrogant selves, let alone foreginers, so it’s amusing as hell to see what developed this week. I highlighted the danger of France only bringing one genuine striker to this tournament in my pre-World Cup preview and it’s become even funnier how that Nicolas Anelka, their only proven striker at this level, has now left the camp and gone home after falling out with Domenech. The other “French” players have quit training too, just as a protest to this act. It’s beyond funny, really! Anelka has now officially retired from international football too. What a stupid move on his part – Blanc is taking over from Domenech at the end of this tournament anyway! Either way, it’s fair to say that the French camp has a lot of disharmony and generally unhappy players in it at the moment. They’ve failed to register a goal thus far and to be honest, they’ve not looked like scoring one either. Their football is depressingly bad with little to no cohesion between the players, lethargic individuals, and little effort off-the-ball. Ask yourself why France would be motivated for this game and you’ll see why I don’t rate their chances in this game.
South Africa are the hosts and we’ve already seen what tremendous support they have. Realistically they’re all but out of the World Cup but they’ll still be motivated for this game – that’s their style and their fans would have them do nothing less. For an average side, South Africa have performed admirably at this World Cup so my hat goes off to them. A well-organised side will dispose of them easily, as Uruguay did, but a side that isn’t convincing throughout won’t do so i.e. Mexico. France certainly aren’t cohesive enough to prevent the South Africans from doing real damage today and I think they’ll smell blood and really go to beat France. This is their one chance to beat a giant of world football and they won’t get many better chances to do so. It’ll give the fans something to cheer about and South Africa will be well up for the challenge. I fear for their lack of potency, which is why I’d recommend backing them with draw no bet, but I have faith in their enthusiasm and energy ultimately paying off against a lacklustre and disorganised France side in this game today.
Under 2.5 goals – the odds are a bit short but this really should be good accumulator fodder. I’m not sure these two sides could top 2.5 goals if they both had five penalties a-piece so I’d be surprised if this game didn’t go under 2.5 goals. However, I think it’s worth a small punt on South Africa winning this one today because their energy and pace is dangerous and France don’t look well-equipped enough to deal with them today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/6, South Africa to win with draw no bet odds of 5/4.
Nigeria vs South Korea – South Korea to win at 7/5.
I’ve thought long and hard on this one today but I can only see a South Korean win here. Why?
Well, Nigeria, for all their huffing and puffing, don’t have an end product. They’ve got strikers that haven’t played enough football this season, they’re devoid of leadership in the middle of the park, they’re inept in defence, and have frankly over-relied upon goalkeeper Enyeama, who has frankly been there best player by a mile in this tournament, which speaks volumes for their overall displays. They’ve got pace and tenacity but little else. They’ve conceded two goals against a rather poor Greek attack and they didn’t take their chances against them, nor against Argentina when they had them, which is a factor I’ve paid close attention to. I warned of it pre-tournament and that’s why I endorsed backing them to be out in the group stages at 8/11 – not flattering odds, admittedly, but certainly good ones for the high level of confidence I had in their squad not performing. Nigeria have a good manager but little else to speak of and I’d be completely surprised to see them get three points from this one today.
South Korea – I love these guys! They work so hard that it’s hard not to favour them. Their well-regimented side, efficient football, and experience helped them dominate against a physically bigger and stronger Greece side and thus guided them to a comfortable 2-0 win. South Korea were run ragged last match against Argentina, however, and lost 4-1. I don’t read too much into that result because I think they came across an Argentina side scoring goals for fun and they were also a tad unfortuante with the early own goal and some questionable goalkeeping. Generally, I still think South Korea are a very good side and they’ve got another great opportunity to showcase that today. The ability of Park and Lee in midfield is essential for South Korea as they make things happen but the tenacity and pace of the Koreans should cause more problems for the Africans than most people think today. I ultimately have high expectations for the Asians and would be surprised to see them do anything but qualify for the latter stages and I think they’ve earned it too so good luck to them.
I accept that a draw is a possibility so take draw no bet cover if you like. I would take the straight win personally because I have no faith in Nigeria’s attack, even with an occasionaly dodgy Korean goalkeeper on show. South Korea are a good footballing side, much moreso than Nigeria, in my opinion, so should be able to take the win here. They’ve created a lot of chances in all the games that they’ve played thus far and I expect them to take at least one or two today, even against a goalkeeper in inspired form. I don’t believe that Nigeria have the ability to take anything from this game today so backing a South Korea win could be a good bet today, particularly as Nigeria aren’t well-placed to exploit the Korean aerial weakness at the back as they lack any real height themselves!
Verdict: South Korea to win at 7/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Argentina, Skonto Riga, Siauliai.
Recommended bets:
I don’t like any multiple bets today, sorry guys!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
World Cup:
Mexico vs Uruguay (4) over 2.5 goals
France vs South Africa (6) 0-0
Greece vs Argentina (8) -1.75 handicap
Nigeria vs South Korea (5) 0-1
Latvian Virsliga:
FK Jurmala vs Skonto Riga (8) 1-2
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Siauliai vs Atletlas (7) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Sengkang Punggol vs Geylang United (6) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!