Hradec Kralove vs Brno
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Gambrinus Liga relegation battle between newly-promoted Hradec Kralove and financially-crippled Brno. The hosts have looked strong lately whereas the visitors have been beyond poor so it’s easy to see which way I’m leaning currently!
Having watch Hradec Kralove earlier this season, I was pretty convinced that I’d not be backing them at all in the Gambrinus Liga this season. However, some miracle work during the mid-season break has really woken the hosts up to the possibility of being relegated if they don’t improve. They’ve lost just twice during their seven games since the break and those games were against Viktoria Plzen and Jablonec, who have been two of the best sides in the Czech Republic this season. Hradec Kralove have won four out of the remaining five games and drew the other so to say that they’re in-form would be fair. The addition of Misinsky in attack and especially Klapka in midfield during the January transfer window has made Hradec Kralove a lot stronger in front of goal. They’ve won all three of their Gambrinus Liga home games since returning from the winter break, bagging six goals and conceding just once along the way. Hradec Kralove are very much in-form and let’s not overlook just how important the wins have been for the hosts as they’ve faced sides around them like Marila Pribram, Usti nad Labem, and Banik Ostrava. They’re not easy games at all but Hradec Kralove have responded in admirable fashion to the challenge ahead of them and I respect that. I can’t overlook them here with the above in mind.
Brno lost Polach, Michalek, Dvornik, Lejsal, and Trousil during the January transfer window due to financial issues. I’m amazed that they can even field a team anymore, such is the number of youngsters in their ranks. With those departures in mind, it’s no surprise that they’ve lost their last six games (in all competitions) in a row because they have zero depth and very little talent anymore due to their financial position. They’ve scored just twice during those six games whilst shipping nine times. Their defence isn’t proving to be a great problem, realistically – it’s their lack of goalscoring ability that is causing them tremendous issues. They’re bereft of morale and have very little talent – I can’t see them getting a result here with the above in mind.
Although the quality difference between these two sides isn’t vast, I still think that there’s value on the home win at 4/5. The hosts are playing really well and scoring a lot of goals whereas Brno just look like they want the nightmare to end. Therefore, my call is the home win here, especially considering that this is Brno’s fourth game in eleven days!
Verdict: Hradec Kralove to win at 4/5.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav – home win with draw no bet at 9/10.
There’s an obvious risk element to this bet as the hosts don’t score many goals but I’ve hopefully covered it well enough with draw no bet.
Bohemians 1905 are a tough side to break down, especially at home. Consider that only Sigma Olomouc and Sparta Prague respectively have conceded less home goals than Bohemians 1905 this season and you’ll see what I mean. The hosts don’t score goals; that’s their biggest handicap. If they did, they’d be competing for the title this year, in my view. They may not have the big names but they’re such a strong unit that their lack of big names isn’t anywhere near as apparent. Nonetheless, the hosts have won seven out of twelve Gambrinus Liga home games this season despite not scoring many goals so you can see how efficient they are. Only two sides have won at Bohemians 1905 this season – Sparta Prague and Jablonec respectively – and both of them won 0-1, which should perfectly illustrate just how hard a game this actually is for sides nowadays. The hosts have been immense since returning from the winter break too, with four wins, two draws, and just one defeat in their last seven games. They’ve kept three clean sheets in their last four games and have won their last two home games consecutively.
Visitors Mlada Boleslav are a good side that plays good football but they seem to restrict their ability to their home games, bizarrely. At home, they’re one of the most potent sides in the Czech Republic. Away from home, their attacking is so poor that they look more like a relegation-threatened side than a side competing for a European place – the only way of identifying that Mlada Boleslav are a good side away from home is their strong defence. Only Sparta Prague have conceded less on the road than Mlada Boleslav have this season so the visitors just need to find the goalscoring form that has made them a nightmare side to face on their own turf to become an overall force. However, I don’t envision their away form improving here as it’s their fourth game in ten days. They’ve had their work cut out by battling with Viktoria Plzen twice, not to mention playing Sparta Prague in between, so we have a weary Mlada Boleslav side on our hands today. They’re travelling to face a side that you must be at your best to beat and given how jaded this side must unquestionably be, I cannot see the visitors managing to get a result here. The visitors have failed to score in three out of their last four away games and they’ve lost two of those games so they’re sitting ducks today, in my view.
Since Bohemians 1905 were promoted again back in 2007, Mlada Boleslav have failed to win at Bohemians 1905, losing 1-1 in the first season of Bohemians 1905’s return and losing here 2-0 last year. In experienced ex-Sparta Prague striker Kulic, Mlada Boleslav do have a good attack, especially with youngster Chramosta alongside him. Is it enough for them to get something here though? Not in my eyes. For me, the value is with the home side with draw no bet cover today.
Verdict: Bohemians 1905 to win with draw no bet at 9/10.
Usti nad Labem vs Jablonec – away win with -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
I can’t substantiate this in any way other than by expressing the vast difference in quality between these two sides. We have doomed Usti nad Labem, who are playing their home games at Teplice’s ground instead of their own this season, hosting a very impressive and potent Jablonec side. Jablonec have smashed seven past Hradec Kralove and five past Ceske Budejovice since returning from the winter break and I don’t see why they can’t emulate that here. For me, there’s definitely value in the -1.5 handicap on the away side – Usti nad Labem are just a terrible side, to be frank!
Verdict: Jablonec to beat the -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Bolton Wanderers vs Arsenal – away win at 4/5.
Since holding midfielder Holden suffered an injury whilst Bolton faced Manchester United, Bolton have looked pretty damn poor. They were uninspiring at Birmingham City in a 2-1 defeat, encountered a disjointed West Ham United side after that and won 3-0 before crashing to a horrendous 5-0 defeat at Wembley against Stoke City in the FA Cup Semi-Final. That result in particular has damaged the morale of a lot of the players and the fans are absolutely livid at the lacklustre display. Bolton looked jaded and out of their depth and it must be the case if even superb motivator Owen Coyle can’t get them going for a massive game. For me, Bolton’s season has just ended following the exit from the FA Cup; where’s their motivation going to come from here They’ve been terrific at home this season but I don’t see them being able to produce enough to get a result in this game.
Visitors Arsenal are notorious bottlers in big situations and following Manchester United and Chelsea’s wins yesterday, Arsenal must win this game if they’re to keep their pretence of being title challengers alive. In Arsenal’s defence, their form lately is largely due to poor defending rather than not scoring goals. If Arsenal score goals here, which I’m sure they will, then they should win the game as Bolton look a shadow of the side that they were earlier this season. Arsenal have more than enough firepower with Van Persie, Nasri, and Fabregas in their ranks and with a better defence and/or more composure, they’d have won more games than they’ve drawn lately.
However, I still fancy their chances here. Arsenal love playing Bolton; they’ve beaten them eight times in a row in all competitions and should record a ninth win today against a demoralised Bolton side at decent odds.
Team news – Bolton Wanderers miss Holden, Mark Davies, and Ricketts whereas Arsenal miss Diaby, Fabianski, Mannone, and Vermaelen whilst having doubts over Rosicky.
Verdict: Arsenal to win at 4/5.
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven – over 2.5 goals at 7/10.
Unlike on their travels, Feyenoord Rotterdam do enjoy scoring goals at home, averaging scoring over two goals per home game. However, they’re not usually the most concrete of sides defensively due to a lack of experience and that should show here, as usual. Feyenoord have kept three clean sheets at home in the Eredivisie all season long, which speaks volumes regarding their defence, especially as two of those games were against relegation-threatened sides (VVV Venlo and Excelsior Rotterdam respectively). Only four of their home games have gone under 2.5 goals and they’re the ones where they’ve failed to score with the exception of their derby against Excelsior. In Castaignos, they have one of the most promising Dutch strikers in years, who is widely coveted by Serie A giants Internazionale. Supporting him, the likes of Biseswar, Fer, Wijndalum, and even on-loan Arsenal starlet Miyaichi from Japan form a formidable attack when they want to and I can’t help but feel we’ll see that today.
PSV beat Feyenoord 10-0 earlier this season so the hosts will no doubt be up for revenge and they’ve picked a good time to face PSV too. PSV aren’t looking themselves after Toivonen’s lengthy absence but are still causing problems for opponents with talented Hungarian winger Dzsudzsak loading the bullets for Lens and Berg to score in Toivonen’s absence. Toivonen may return today but nothing is set in stone yet. Every time PSV have conceded a goal away from home in the Eredivisie this season, their games have gone over 2.5 goals. The sole exception to that was their 2-0 defeat at Twente as PSV rarely failed to find the net themselves. PSV win the majority of their away games by taking their chances and keeping clean sheets but I just don’t think that they can do that today, not against a determined Feyenoord side with such a vibrant attack.
For me, this game has over 2.5 goals written all over it. Odds of 7/10 aren’t atypically what I’d call value but with the above in mind and the absence of half of Feyenoord’s defence with no Swerts or Leerdam available, I can’t help but feel that we’ll see goals here.
Team news – Feyenoord Rotterdam miss Tomasson, Cisse, Schaken, Schenkeveld, Fernandez, Aussar, Leerdam, Bruins, Swerts, and Cabral whereas PSV Eindhoven miss Reis and have doubts over Toivonen and Pieters.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 7/10.
Djurgarden vs IFK Norrkoping – home win at 11/10.
Hosts Djurgarden have lost three out of three so far in the Allsvenskan this season and although those statistics are somewhat condemning, I don’t think they portray Djurgarden fairly.
Djurgarden have a good attack but let’s consider that they’ve faced Kalmar away, Malmo at home, and a rejuvenated GAIS Goteborg side away from home thus far and I think three defeats is understandable, if not exactly welcome. Djurgarden have a very strong midfield with their Finnish trio of Sjolund, Perovuo, and Hamalainen causing mayhem when they choose to. The problem they have at the moment is that they have no strike partner for Nigerian target man Iboananike with Youssef, Oremo, and Jonson all absent for this game. Nonetheless, Djurgarden support their attack very well from midfield and we’ve seen that demonstrated quite a lot in their games thus far. It’s undeniable that they’re weak at the back, especially with dodgy goalkeeper Touray, but they’re still a good attacking side and I think they should be given their deserved opportunity to shine here.
Boss Andersson admitted that IFK Norrkoping have trained very little this week due to having a congested fixture schedule as they bid to keep their players fit. He’s also admitted that switching between artificial turf and natural grass is taking its toll on the team. IFK are a determined side with plenty of attacking players but they’re rather short on ability. They’ve done well to take the points that they have thus far, admittedly – credit must go to them for that. However, I think their luck might run out today against a good Djurgarden side, especially with their manager admitting that there are problems in the Norrkoping camp currently. Rather stupidly, their manager has already named the line-up for today’s game, which gives the advantage to Djurgarden in order for the hosts to prepare for this game. The line-up is as follows – Dalence, da Cruz, Wikstrom, Floren, Racu, Falk-Olander, Ajdarevic, Telo, Thorvaldsson, and Hasani.
I’ll never understand managers naming teams so long before the game – it doesn’t benefit them on any level, in my view. Although only a sweet free-kick from Ajdarevic could seperate these two sides in a pre-season friendly, I think there’s enough listed above to take the home win today.
Team news – Djurgarden miss Riddez, Oremo, Jonson, and Youssef whereas IFK Norrkoping miss Cakic.
Verdict: Djurgarden to win at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Litex Lovech, Deportes Tolima, Jablonec, FK Ventspils, Skonto Riga, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, Zenit St.Petersburg, Fenerbahce, Club Nacional de Montevideo.
Recommended bets:
Arsenal, Fenerbahce, and AFC Ajax Amsterdam at over 2/1.
Hradec Kralove, Zenit St.Petersburg, and Jablonec at over 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Gimnasia De La Plata (7) 2-0
Tigre vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (6) 0-1
Atletico Huracan vs Boca Juniors (6) 2-1
Argentinos Juniors vs Racing Club Avellaneda (6) 1-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Ried vs Austria Vienna (6) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Lokeren vs Anderlecht (6) 1-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Beroe vs Levski Sofia (6) 0-0
Litex Lovech vs Rakovski (9) -1.5 handicap
Chilean Primera Division:
Union San Felipe vs La Serena (6) 1-0
Santiago Morning vs Colo Colo (6) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
Millonarios Bogota vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (6) 2-1
Real Cartagena vs Deportivo Pereira (7) 2-0
Itagui Ditaires vs Atletico Huila (5) 0-0
Boyaca Chico vs La Equidad Bogota (6) 1-1
Deportes Tolima vs Deportes Quindio (8) 2-0
Once Caldas Manizales vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (7) 2-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Usti nad Labem vs Jablonec (9) over 2.5 goals
Ceske Budejovice vs Marila Pribram (7) 0-0
Hradec Kralove vs Brno (6) 2-1
Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav (5) 1-0
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice (7) 2-0
Danish Superligaen:
Esbjerg vs Midtylland (7) 1-1
Nordsjaelland vs Aalborg BK (6) 1-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Cuenca vs Manta (7) 1-0
Deportivo Quito vs Barcelona Guayaquil (7) 1-0
Olmedo Riobamba vs Independiente (6) 2-1
Emelec Guayaquil vs El Nacional Quito (5) 0-0
English Premier League:
Bolton Wanderers vs Arsenal (7) 1-2
French Ligue 1:
Auxerre vs Racing Club Lens (6) 0-0
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Saint-Etienne (6) 1-0
Stade Brestois vs Paris Saint-Germain (5) 0-1
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Toulouse (5) 2-1
AS Monaco vs Stade Rennais (6) 1-1
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs Arles (7) 1-0
Valenciennes vs Sochaux (6) 2-1
Lorient vs LOSC Lille (7) 1-1
German Bundesliga:
VfL Wolfsburg vs Koln (5) 1-1
Nurnberg vs Mainz 05 (7) 2-0
German Bundesliga 2:
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Arminia Bielefeld (7)
Augsburg vs Alemannia Aachen (7) over 2.5 goals
Union Berlin vs Ingolstadt (4)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
MTK Budapest vs Ferencvaros (6) 1-1
Japanese J-League:
Montedio Yamagata vs Cerezo Osaka (6) 1-0
Albirex Niigata vs Jubilo Iwata (6) 1-0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Gamba Osaka (5) 1-1
Urawa Red Diamonds vs Nagoya Grampus (5) 0-0
Latvian Virsliga:
Jelgava vs Skonto Riga (8) 0-2
FC Jurmala vs FK Ventspils (9) 0-2
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Daugava Daugavpils (6) 1-0
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Siauliai vs Zalgiris Vilnius (6) 1-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Morelia vs Tigres UANL (4) 1-1
Toluca vs Estudiantes Tecos (6) 1-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Excelsior Rotterdam (9) over 2.5 goals
FC Utrecht vs Vitesse Arnhem (5) 2-1
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven (5) over 2.5 goals
Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen (5) 2-1
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Independiente FBC vs General Caballero (5) 1-0
Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Peruvian Primera Division:
Cobresol vs Cienciano (6) 1-1
Leon de Huanuco vs Sport Huancayo (5) 2-1
Universidad Cesar Vallejo vs Sporting Cristal (5) 1-1
Juan Aurich vs Alianza Lima (6) 1-0
Romanian Liga:
Gloria Bistrita vs Otelul Galati (5) 0-1
Gaz Metan Medias vs Unirea Urziceni (7) 2-0
Universitatea Craiova vs FC Brasov (6) 1-1
Russian Premier League:
Tom’ Tomsk vs CSKA Moscow (7) 0-2
Rubin Kazan’ vs Amkar Perm’ (6) 1-0
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Krylya Sovetov Samara (8) 2-0
Spartak Moscow vs Spartak Nal’chik (7) 2-0
Scottish Premier League:
Rangers vs Celtic (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Hibernian vs St.Mirren (6) 1-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Mallorca vs Getafe (6) 2-1
Sporting Gijon vs Espanyol (5) 1-1
Hercules Alicante vs Deportivo La Coruna (6) 1-1
Racing Santander vs Malaga (7) 1-0
Atletico Madrid vs Levante (7) 2-1
Sevilla CF vs Villarreal CF (6) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Barcelona II vs Real Betis Balompie (6)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Alcorcon (5)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Djurgarden vs IFK Norrkoping (7) 2-1
Mjallby Solvesborg vs GAIS Goteborg (5) 1-1
Elfsborg Boras vs Malmo FF (6) 1-1
Halmstad vs Trelleborg (6) 1-0
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Gefle (6) 2-1
Swedish Superettan:
Assyriska Sodertalje vs Osters (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Genclerbirligi vs Kasimpasa (6) 2-1
Gaziantepspor vs Antalyaspor (7) 2-0
Istanbul BB vs Ankaragucu (6) 1-0
Bucaspor vs Fenerbahce (8) over 2.5 goals
Ukrainian Premier League:
Zorya Lugansk vs Metalurg Donetsk (6) 2-1
Sevastopol vs Illichivets Mariupol (6) 1-0
Uruguayan Primera Division:
River Plate Montevideo vs Miramar Misiones (6) 1-0
Danubio vs Tacuarembo (7) 2-0
Cerro vs Fenix (6) 1-1
Defensor Sporting vs Racing Club Montevideo (7) 2-1
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Central Espanol (8) 2-0
Welsh Premier League:
Bala Town vs Carmarthen Town (5) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!