Jablonec vs Viktoria Plzen
FreeToday’s featured game is the Gambrinus Liga game between Jablonec and Viktoria Plzen in the Czech Republic. Both sides were expected to be amongst the top five in the Gambrinus Liga pre-season and both look on course to do so following some convincing displays from both sides so we should see a decent game between the two today.
However, fuck the Gambrinus Liga table; this game is not going to be easy. Jablonec are never easy to beat and Viktoria Plzen are going to be brought back down to reality at somepoint so be careful here.
That said, Jablonec have actually lost three out of their last four home games against Viktoria Plzen, which is an impressive record for the visitors at Jablonec are generally very good at home. Although I would argue that Jablonec haven’t really been tested at home yet this season, I would say that they’ve done well in the games that they have played so credit must go to them for that. They’ve got a sizable squad so depth is rarely a problem for this side, which is obviously a boost. Despite them not being the most potent of sides in the Gambrinus Liga, the attacking trio of Lafata, Pekhart, and Vosahlik make for a frightening attacking unit when in form with the right blend of experience, finesse, and ability combined in those three. They possess good experience in midfield with ex-Sparta Prague winger Loucka and ex-Slavia Prague midfelder Jarolim in their ranks, not to mention their reliable back four of Pavlik, Krajcik, Jabonsky, and Zabojnik, which is arguably the most experienced defence in the division. Even Spit in goal has been around for an age so underestimating the hosts is a very foolish thing to do in any Gambrinus Liga game. Jablonec tend to draw their strength from their well-organised defence and their strong team spirit rather than relying upon “stars”, which naturally has pros (rarely on bad runs for a lengthy period, hard to beat) and cons (nobody to steal a goal when things aren’t going well, nobody to get the fans going). Jablonec still have a lot to learn in this league but with the gradual demise of both Sparta and Slavia Prague, the opening is there for Jablonec to make a name for themselves.
Despite the above, I’m going to be siding with Viktoria Plzen today. It’s an even bolder call than the table suggests but they’re playing phenomenally well at the moment and I can’t possibly ignore that. Jan Rezek is absolutely on fire for the visitors with six goals in eight games this season. Unlike their hosts today, Viktoria clearly boast a “star” capable of changing this game, which is immensely important when you are looking to beat a side like Jablonec. However, Plzen’s strength comes largely from midfield with a vast array of talent on display in the form of Horvath, Rajtoral, Kolar, Petrzela, and Jiracek. There’s a great combination of experience, pace, ability, creativity, and tenacity in that midfield that other sides find it very hard to counter which is why Plzen are doing so well. Hell, they’ve won six consecutive games now and are showing no signs of a European hangover whatsoever, which speaks volumes for their spirit and belief. They’ve scored ten goals in their last two Gambrinus Liga encounters and have looked bloody good whilst doing so to! Finally, their defence is also very solid, must like their hosts, although Plzen’s weak point is that they are weak in numbers at the back if injuries/suspensions occur.
So – what to expect here? Expect a tight game with few good chances. Both sides will work hard and the game will be won in midfield, if anywhere. Plzen have a better midfield and have to be favoured with Rezek in great form but if Jablonec’s forward three are in-form, Plzen, have a long game ahead of them. However, I favour Plzen’s 4-5-1 – it’s looked immense so far this season and even a strong Jablonec side could and should succumb to their massively in-form opponents today so the away win is my call here.
Verdict: Viktoria Plzen to win at 3/2.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Palestino vs Santiago Wanderers – home win at 4/5.
Despite boasting arguably the meanest defence in the division, Palestino still find themselves closer to the bottom of the table than they do the top and that has to be frustrating for them. Their inability to travel well due to a lack of potency leaves them exposed on the road but home advantage tends to render opposing sides somewhat open to being beaten as six wins in eleven home games for Palestino indicates all too well this season. My problem is with Palestino is that nobody barring Canales scores goals for them, which is naturally a big problem if he isn’t in-form. Fortunately for Palestino, he’s been on top form this season, which helps divert attention away from emerging talent Pablo Pereira in attack and thus lessens expectation and/or pressure. Midfielder Cortés pulls the strings for Palestino and the trio of Riquelme, Oyarzun, and Herrera holds the defence together so Palestino do have a solid backbone – they just lack in depth and potency. Nonetheless, four games without defeat (including three wins and three clean sheets) suggests that Palestino are in-form enough to make it count tonight so I do fancy them here. Indeed, Palestino’s defence is so good that only the two best sides in Chile – Universidad Catolica and Universidad de Chile respectively – have won at Palestino this season so I have no concerns over their defence tonight – just their attack.
Visitors Santiago Wanderers should hopefully help fill in the blanks, however. They’ve lost seven out of eleven on the road this season because they average conceding nearly two goals per away game. Only a handful of sides have scored less than they have on the road and with six consecutive defeats leading into this game (including five consecutive games without even scoring) leaves them looking very vulnerable indeed tonight. Much like their hosts, Santiago rely rather heavily on one goalscorer, who in this instance is emerging talent Carlos Nunez but even he can’t bail his side out at the moment. They’ve lost their last three visits to face Palestino and to be honest, with the above in mind, I don’t see them taking anything tonight either.
4/5 looks too generous on the home win so that’s my call here although use a bit of caution as Palestino are capable of drawing a blank and failing to win the game. It’s got to be worth a shot whilst the odds are as generous as they are currently, however!
Verdict: Palestino to win at 4/5.
Emmen vs Helmond Sport – away win at 6/5.
It’s still early stages in the Eerste Divisie so games are a tad unpredictable between the lesser sides as sides still thrash out wildly in a desperate bid to find a footing following financial meltdown in Netherlands over the summer. Emmen are one of those sides which is why they’ve lost two out of two at home but have only lost once in their three away games, winning and drawing once. They’re actually unbeaten in two consecutive games now so their momentum bothers me a little as Eerste Divisie sides take an awful lot from momentum rather than actual ability. Nonetheless, the sides that they’ve faced so far this season of any substantial quality (i.e. Cambuur Leeuwarden and Zwolle) have eased to victory against Emmen and that’s what I expect tonight, just as it did in their last meeting at Emmen and just as it has for three consecutive meetings between the two sides. Helmond are one of the few sides in the division that have no suffered massively with financial problems so they’re still one of a short list that have a good shot at promotion. However, Helmond’s problem is not scoring enough goals to kill sides off. They’ve won three out of five games this season but all three of those wins were 1-0, which is frankly a little scary! They conceded at home to a defensively-inept Eindhoven side last match and failed to win because they’re not clinical enough and it’s rapidly becoming a big problem for Helmond. There’s too much reliance on Bruno Andrade in attack and although their defence is usually very good, it’s inevitable that you’ll sometimes make mistakes and concede goals and if that happens, Helmond really struggle.
However, there’s no denying that Helmond are simply a lot better than Emmen here and the odds look decent with that in mind. I’ll be concerned if they concede but ultimately the superior side winning this encounter at 6/5 appeals to me tonight.
Verdict: Helmond Sport to win at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Union Espanola, OPS Oulu, Zwolle, Trabzonspor, The New Saints.
Recommended bets:
Union Espanola and Palestino at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Huracan (6) 0-0
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Atletico Lanus (5) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Newcastle Jets vs Perth Glory (6) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Mechelen vs Standard de Liege (5) 1-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Union San Felipe vs Cobreloa (7) 2-1
Palestino vs Santiago Wanderers (7) 2-0
Cobresal vs Huachipato (4) 1-1
Union Espanola vs Santiago Morning (8) 2-0
Audax Italiano vs La Serena (7) over 2.5 goals
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Sibenik (7) under 2.5 goals
Inter Zapresic vs Osijek (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Varteks Varazdin vs Cibalia Vinkovci (6) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Jablonec vs Viktoria Plzen (6) 1-2
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Manta vs Macara Ambato (7) 2-1
English Championship:
Doncaster Rovers vs Leeds United (5) draw no bet
English League Two:
Accrington Stanley vs Lincoln City (6) under 2.5 goals
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
IF Fuglafjordur vs EB/Streymur (6) 1-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
OPS Oulu vs HJK II (8)
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Vannes OC (6)
Boulogne vs Stade Lavallois (5)
Chateauroux vs Metz (6)
Clermont Foot vs Nimes (5)
Dijon FCO vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (6)
Grenoble Foot vs Troyes (5)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Le Mans (6)
Tours vs Le Havre (6)
German Bundesliga:
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg (6) 2-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Greuther Furth vs FSV Frankfurt (7)
Union Berlin vs Hertha BSC Berlin (5) draw no bet, at least one red card in this game
Alemannia Aachen vs Energie Cottbus (6)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Fehervar (5) over 2.5 goals
Italian Serie B:
Varese vs Pescara (7)
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs Pumas UNAM (6) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
De Graafschap vs Heerenveen (6) 1-2
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
RKC Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam (4) draw no bet
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Veendam (7)
Volendam vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (6)
MVV Maastricht vs Fortuna Sittard (5)
Emmen vs Helmond Sport (7)
RBC Roosendaal vs Go Ahead Eagles (5)
Eindhoven vs Almere City (7) over 2.5 goals
Zwolle vs Telstar (8)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce (7) 2-1
Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow (5) 1-0
Polish Liga 1:
Gornik Leczna vs Pogon Szezecin (4) draw no bet
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Olhanense vs Portimonense (6) 1-1
Romanian Liga:
Gaz Metan Medias vs Universitatea Cluj (6) 2-0
Victoria Branesti vs Pandurii Targu Jiu (5) 2-1
Universitatea Craiova vs Rapid Bucharest (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Balestier Khalsa (7) 2-0
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Senica vs Nitra (6) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Villarreal II vs Las Palmas (5)
Swedish Superettan:
IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS (6) over 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Trabzonspor vs Manisaspor (8) 2-0
Ukrainian Premier League:
Metalurg Zaporizhya vs Metalurg Donetsk (5) 1-1
Volyn Lutsk vs Illchivets Mariupol (4) 0-0
Welsh Premier League:
Airbus UK vs The New Saints (8) 1-2
Bala Town vs Prestatyn Town (6) 1-1
Carmarthen Town vs Haverfordwest County (4) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!