Kortrijk vs Anderlecht
FreeAfter an inexplicable day (as ever) in the English leagues, our attention now largely turns to hopefully more profitable ones abroad although I do have some interest in the English games today.
The featured game today is the Eerste Klasse encounter between Kortrijk and Anderlecht. Kortrijk have been fantastic at home this season and Anderlecht have been immense in recent times so statistics point to this game being a great one.
I’d probably edge towards this game being more boring than anything though, in all honesty. Kortrijk have won eight out of nine home games this season and the one game that they have lost was pretty unfair, in all honesty, so they do need to be taken seriously here. Contrary to their impressive goalscoring tally, Kortrijk are not a naturally good goalscoring side. Their strength has always been defending and that’s very well illustrated by their record of averaging conceding just over a goal per every two home games. To Kortrijk’s credit, they’ve even beaten Club Brugge, Racing Genk, and Standard de Liege at home so you could be forgiven for thinking that they’re worth a thought for beating Anderlecht here. What I’d point out, however, is that Kortrijk have beaten the afore-mentioned sides whilst having considerable factors on their side (i.e. first game of the season, injuries/absent players etc.) so I wouldnt’t pay too much attention to that record. Nonetheless, Kortrijk are still a really tough side to beat, especially at home, and even a very strong Anderlecht side know that, as Anderlecht boss Ariel Jacobs has already admitted. Kortrijk are a side to be respected that are hard to beat but don’t be mistaken here – they’re not a top side in Belgium and that should show in this game today as they’re facing arguably the best side in the country.
Anderlecht miss De Sutter for this game but as useful as he is as a variant in attack, they should still have enough to win this game. I’d be concerned if it was (another) long-term absence but from what I understand, it is not a long-term absence. Anderlecht still have Lukaku and Suarez in attack and although question marks hover over the fitness of Boussoufa and Legear following recent illness, I find it unlikely that both will miss this game. I have to approach this game with the mindset that Anderlecht will field a strong side either way and they are a class above Kortrijk, to be fair. History indicates that they’re the superior side too with Anderlecht recording seven wins from seven encounters against Kortrijk since Kortrijk were promoted a few years ago, including a 3-0 win at the Constant Vanden Stock earlier this season so Anderlecht know how to deal with their combative opponents. Anderlecht are in great confidence following qualification for the next round of the UEFA Europa League, a 0-2 win at bitter rivals Club Brugge, and a 6-0 drubbing of relegation-threatened Lierse SK leading them into this game so it’d be fair to observe that Anderlecht have tremendous momentum ahead of this game too. They’ve got one of the strongest sides in Belgium, especially in terms of squad depth, so you have to favour the visitors here.
Regrettably, the bookies have priced this game in quite an astute fashion so I’d move swiftly to gain any value from this game. 4/5 on the away win is a decent price but anything lower and I’d probably avoid it. Anderlecht are a very talented side with some great players and really should edge it but in-form Kortrijk are specialists at not losing at home so be cautious here.
Incidentally – I would also double-check team news ahead of this game – if Anderlecht miss both Legear and Boussoufa for this game then I’d avoid it as creativity is very limited without both but the visitors can cope with just one of them missing.
Team news – Anderlecht miss De Sutter, Kouyate, Deschacht, and Badibanga whilst have doubts over Legear and Boussoufa.
Verdict: Anderlecht to win at 4/5.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Chelsea vs Bolton Wanderers – away win with +1.5 handicap at evens.
Everyone who has watched football in England lately can tell you about the ailments of sleeping giants Chelsea so I don’t see any point in going into that now. They’re playing ineffectually and conceding goals for fun and in an unforgiving league like the Premier League, it is particularly obvious to observe. They lost 3-1 at local rivals Arsenal earlier this week and will be demoralised from such a defeat, not to mention tired. Opponents Bolton have had a little longer to rest and also enter this game on the back of a 2-0 win at home to West Bromwich Albion so their momentum is decent. Bolton have looked good under new manager Coyle as his infectious managerial style has taken over the club with his players falling over each other to get into the starting eleven. Bolton have always played with spirit but with Davies and Elmander in attack, they’ve suddenly become a very good goalscoring side and that’s the last thing that Chelsea need currently – I’m sure they’d prefer to take on the old Bolton that camped in their own half and allowed Chelsea to send wave after wave against them. Make no mistake here – this is going to be a very difficult game for Chelsea because of the way Bolton play so I think there’s value to be had here.
I’m wary of laying Chelsea at 11/5, despite the price being very good indeed, because Chelsea have the quality to turn their bad form around in an instant. However, giving Bolton a +1.5 goal head start at evens looks a really good price for this game because they do score goals and even if Chelsea do win the game, I don’t envision it being a commanding and dominant win given the spirit that Bolton have shown this season. Therefore, I think backing Bolton with a +1.5 goal head start at evens shows some good value today.
Team news – Chelsea miss Alex, Zhirkov, and Benayoun whilst having doubts over Anelka whereas Bolton miss Lee and Cohen.
Verdict: Bolton Wanderers to win with a +1.5 goal handicap at evens.
Lierse SK vs Westerlo – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Lierse have been forced to call up youngsters Claes, Vercammen, and Niels for this game due to their absentee list for this game. They miss important defenders Frans and De Graef for this game, not to mention back-up defenders Vandooren and Notari so Lierse have real issues at the back for this encounter. Not only that but Lierse have been terrible in defence for the vast majority of the season with an average of conceding over two goals per game so it stands to reason that they’ll struggle here. To make matters worse, striker Wesley Sonck buckled in the press lately, criticising his team mates for poor displays. The players are losing faith in Eric Van Meir and the fans have blamed wealthy owner Maged Samy so I think it’s fair to observe that this Lierse side has a lot of problems ahead of this game. They’ve not won an Eerste Klasse game since September and they’ve not won an Eerste Klasse home game all season long with five draws and four defeats from nine home games. Lierse’s tactics are failing because they’re an attacking side and whereas that works if you score enough goals to outscore your opponents, it doesn’t work if you don’t. Lierse have the players to score goals in attack but their overall quality as a unit is poor, hence heavy defeats against Standard de Liege and Anderlecht being amongst their four defeats in their last five games. Admittedly, you’d expect Lierse to lose against such good sides but conceding thirteen goals over both games just isnt good enough so I expect them to struggle here.
For a pleasant change, Westerlo approach this game with a presentable away record. They’ve only lost four times in ten Eerste Klasse away games because although they’re conceding quite a hefty amount of goals, they’re scoring quite a lot of goals too, something that their local rivals Lierse haven’t managed to achieve this season. Westerlo have actually won four away games along the way and although they’re without a win in five consecutive Eerste Klasse games, you still have to give them a chance here because they are scoring goals. Also, let’s give Westerlo some credit here – yes, they’re without a win in five games, but three of those were away from home against very good home sides (Club Brugge (4-3 loss), AA Gent (4-4 draw), and Zulte-Waregem (2-0 loss)) and I think that they emerge from these games with a pretty decent record, all things considered. Westerlo have struggled to break sides down at home but I don’t see that being a great problem here as Lierse cannot defend and are missing a lot of defenders for this derby so I have to favour Westerlo for this game. Westerlo do have their own defensive concerns for this game with De Petter and Vanaudenaerde absent for this game so Lierse will have their own chances and thus we can expect goals here.
Over 2.5 goals looks the more obvious choice but I’m still sticking with the away win here. I have no faith in Lierse’s attack and they have a lot of problems internally here, let alone on the field. As with all derbies, do approach this game with caution. However, the away win with draw no bet cover at 4/5 looks a decent bet to me today.
Team news – Lierse SK miss Frans, De Graef, Mensah, Vandooren, Kujovic, and Notari whereas Westerlo miss Van Hout, Vanaudenaerde, Ruiz, De Petter, and Liliu.
Verdict: Westerlo to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Club Brugge, Bangor City, The New Saints.
Recommended bets:
Club Brugge and Anderlecht at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
International Friendly:
Syria vs Uzbekistan (5) 1-0
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs Sydney FC (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Kortrijk vs Anderlecht (6) 1-2
Club Brugge vs Charleroi (8) 2-0
Germinal Beerschot vs Eupen (4) 1-1
Lierse SK vs Westerlo (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
English Premier League:
Chelsea vs Bolton Wanderers (3) 1-1
Wigan Athletic vs Arsenal (6) 1-2
Liverpool vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (6) 2-1
English Championship:
Nottingham Forest vs Derby County (5) at least one red card in this game
English League One:
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Charlton Athletic (5)
Scottish Premier League:
Hamilton Academicals vs Aberdeen (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Hibernian vs Dundee United (6) under 2.5 goals
Celtic vs Motherwell (6) under 2.5 goals
Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Kilmarnock (4) 1-2
St.Mirren vs Hearts (7) 0-2
Welsh Premier League:
Haverfordwest County vs Carmarthen Town (4) 1-2
Bangor City vs Prestatyn Town (8) -1.5 handicap
The New Saints vs Llanelli (8) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!