Kortrijk vs Lierse SK
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Anyway, today’s featured game is the Eerste Klasse game between Kortrijk and newly-promoted Lierse SK. Neither of these two sides are particularly famed for their entertaining football so I’m not expecting a great spectacle here today by any stretch of the imagination!
However, I do have a considerable level of interest in Kortrijk winning this game today. The hosts have long been a strong home side in Belgium and this season has been no exception with Kortrijk boasting the best ratio of wins to home games in the whole of the Eerste Klasse with six wins from seven home games. They’re not a potent side; indeed, I’d call them a more cautious side than anything else. However, they own this record because they’ve got a virtually immortal defence that averages conceding less than a goal per every two home games currently, which, needless to say, is the best defensive home record in the division. Gershon and Kums are the rocks in this Kortrijk defence and the industrious midfield in front of them provide a great deal of support too. It’s Kortrijk’s midfield that is quintessential to their success, to be honest – there’s a lot of experience, tenacity, and stamina in midfield with De Beule, Pavlovic, Messoudi, Belhocine, and Carevic there and that’s the obstacle that sides tend to struggle to break down when facing Kortrijk. Attacker Rossini is an integral part of Kortrijk’s atypical 4-5-1 but regrettably he misses this game through suspension. However, Ilombe/Capon (both of which return from suspension) should have enough here for Kortrijk to win this game as Kortrijk are not facing a side that is strong defensively. If they were facing a strong defensive side then I’d be avoiding this game like the plague! They also miss Pavlovic but again, they have adequate replacements against an inferior Lierse SK side. Kortrijk’s form of late has been poor, it’s true – they’ve not won for three consecutive Eerste Klasse games. However, what the statistics don’t show too openly is that all three of those games were away from home, which is where Kortrijk struggle, away from their home support and compact pitch. Kortrijk are back to home comforts for this game and against an inferior side, I fancy them to do the business, just as they have against Racing Genk and Club Brugge already this season.
Visitors Lierse SK have disappointed me this year. I expected a lot from them with their rich owner, the signing of experienced Wesley Sonck in attack, and their ruthless attacking manner. However, they’ve conceded goals far too easily, been predictable in attack, and have generally been cannon fodder for other sides. Lierse have lost three consecutive games ahead of this one, shipping no less than eleven goals along the way, including a recent 7-0 drubbing at giants Standard de Liege. The only side Lierse have beaten away from home this season is Charleroi, who are one of the few sides playing worse than they are. They’ve failed to score in five out of their nine away games this season and with an average of over two goals conceded per away game, it’s no surprise to learn that they’ve lost six out of their nine away games. Lierse have some very good players in their side (i.e. Sonck, Radzinski) but there’s too much of a gulf in this side with some very poor players here too. For a side whose only strength is attacking, Lierse don’t score enough goals, especially on the road, and that is a surprise. They’ve got Sonck and Radzinski for the finess, Cavens for the pace, and Kovacs for the height so why they can’t score more is beyond me. However, Kortrijk is the last place for a side not scoring goals to play as Kortrijk just don’t concede at home so you have to fear for Lierse today.
As with all Kortrijk home games, you have to fancy the home win to nil at 7/4 because if Kortrijk win then they tend to win without conceding. However, some absences for Kortrijk and Lierse’s determination to attack makes me uneasy about the afore-mentioned bet so my call for this game will be the home win at 3/4 as Kortrijk are priced too generously here with their home advantage and Eerste Klasse experience taken into account.
Team news – Kortrijk miss Pavlovic through injury and Rossini through suspension.
Verdict: Kortrijk to win at 3/4 – why not bet on this game now at Bwin?
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Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Velez Sarsfield – away win at 21/20.
Although Racing Club Avellaneda, Newells Old Boys, and Atletico Lanus will all be pissed off with Independiente for claiming the last Copa Libertadores place by winning the Copa Sudamericana against all odds, neither Newells or Lanus will be anywhere near as pissed off as Racing, who loathe Independiente! So, to put it bluntly – Racing are not only really pissed off but they also have no interest in this game so I don’t expect to see much from them tonight. Racing are generally a strong home side with only Colon de Santa Fe and San Lorenzo de Almagro winning at Racing this season although I would also add that tonight’s game with Velez is the first proper test they’ve had on their own turf this season so I won’t read too much into their home form.
However, that said, Velez haven’t won here for four consecutive visits, losing twice and drawing twice along the way, so this is a tough game and I do understand the odds with that in mind. Whilst I understand that though, I also have to take into account that this game is must-win for Velez as it’s the last game of the season and they’re vying with Estudiantes De La Plata for first place in the Apertura table. Velez may not have been at their best lately but they’re still winning games and grinding out wins through difficult displays is what seperates the men from the boys in this game so I expect Velez to show up tonight. Velez have won seven out of their last nine games with their only two blemishes being two 0-0 draws with title rivals Estudiantes De La Plata and local rivals Gimnasia De La Plata so both are acceptable. Velez bring a lot of momentum into this game and with eight goals scored in three games, you have to feel they’ve got the goals in them to win this game tonight against an uninterested Racing side.
This is a massive game for Maxi Moralez in particular as he’s facing the club that reared him with the club that he could win the Apertura with. A lot hinges on his display from Velez’s perspective as he’s their most creative and incisive player so the outcome of this game does rest on his shoulders more than most. Without him, Silva’s goals tally wouldn’t be nearly as many as it is so we need a big display from him tonight. However, he’s proven to be a consistent performer for Velez this season so I fancy him to show up tonight. Moving clubs in Buenos Aires takes balls and he’s done that so I think he’ll show up, which should lead to a much-needed Velez win and thus I find the away win decent value at 21/20.
Verdict: Velez Sarsfield to win at 21/20.
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Sydney FC vs Brisbane Roar – home win with draw no bet at 6/5.
I know Brisbane Roar have had a terrific A-League campaign but these odds are just wrong. Sydney FC are still the bigger of these two sides and their league placing doesn’t reflect their ability whatsoever so I’m going against the grain and siding with the hosts here.
Sydney FC welcome back important attacker Brosque for this game so they now have him, Bruno Cazarine, and Mark Bridge available in attack, which makes Sydney a dangerous side for this game. The only relatively important player that Sydney miss for this game is defender Grant but they’re fine without him so I think we can safely call this Sydney side a full-strength side. Sydney have worryingly started to piece their A-League campaign together of late too with three wins and a draw from their last four consecutive home games with their sole draw from that run ironically coming in this exact fixture just over a month ago. Sydney have more strength available to them today, however, and momentum is strong so they’ll look to preserve their voodoo sign over Brisbane at home today as Brisbane have failed to win here for ten consecutive visits in all competitions.
That said, I don’t think Brisbane Roar have ever had a better side or better momentum to change that than today so we should see an interesting game here. Brisbane are actually unbeaten for an impressive fiften consecutive games but my stance on that is that all records are there to be broken. Brisbane Roar played out an excellent 3-3 draw with Melbourne Victory in their last away game so they’re not afraid to mix it with the supposedly bigger sides in the A-League so I don’t expect to see them fear their hosts today. However, Brisbane do miss defender Stefanutto, midfielder Murdocca, and striker Henrique, the first two of which are regular starters so Brisbane’s general resilience to losing games may be called into question here against a driven Sydney side. Brisbane still boast a strong attack with the likes of Solorzano and Reinaldo in fine form but I don’t think Brisbane have enough to win this game with their missing players, especially at such a difficult venue.
I therefore think Sydney are priced far too long to win this game at 9/4. Sydney haven’t had a great campaign but they’re a good side, something which their league placing doesn’t really indicate. I think they’ve got a better chance than the bookies give them so backing them to win this game with draw no bet as cover at evens intrigues me a lot for this game.
Team news – Sydney FC miss Carle and Grant whereas Brisbane Roar miss Stefanutto, Murdocca, and Henrique through injury.
Verdict: Sydney FC to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
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Perth Glory vs Central Coast Mariners – away win at 7/5.
Perth Glory welcome back Neville, Mitchell, and Harnwell from suspension but that’s not as good as it may seem with them missing Todd, Burns, Howarth, Sekulovski, Sterjovski, and Griffiths in exchange so Perth Glory are really struggling here, especially as three of those missing players are defenders (two starters), two are starting midfielders, and one is a starting attacker. Without those players, the Glory are missing the backbone of their defence, the backbone of their midfield, and an important attacker. Couple that information with Glory’s one win in six home games in the A-League and it’s reasonable to assess that they have some real issues here, especially as four of those games resulted in defeat. They’ve failed to score in three out of their last four home games and with only Fowler and Jelic left to score the goals for them, they’re going to have real issues resolving that problem today. They’re conceding goals so easily at the moment and with so many defenders missing, it’s hard to see anything but more of the same today in a game that they’re generally used to struggling in.
Visitors Central Coast Mariners welcome back McBreen from suspension for this game to give the Mariners a dangerous three-pronged assault with Kwasnik and Simon in lethal form. They’ve got a largely full squad to choose from for this game and will no doubt be encouraged by their hosts’ absences today. The Mariners enter this game on the back of an emphatic and morale-boosting 4-0 win against Sydney FC so they have some good momentum ahead of this game. They know that the Glory have already lost four times at home this season and despite the Mariners not boasting a magnificent set of wins on the road, they rarely lose on the road as their defence is solid. Indeed, only Newcastle Jets have conceded less than the Mariners have away from home so I don’t see a depleted Perth Glory breaking this stout defence today, which helps the Mariners here as they’re not great goalscorers on the road. Therefore, I give the advantage to the Mariners here.
For me, 7/5 on the away win is too long here. I appreciate that Perth Glory boast one of the better squads in the division this year on paper but in actuality, Perth Glory are not playing well. They’re conceding goals for fun and they’re not scoring enough. The Mariners are hardly at the peak of their form but they bring a good side into this game that is well-organised away from home so I’ll give them their chances of winning this game today at 7/5.
Team news – Perth Glory miss Todd, Burns, and Howarth through injury and Sekulovski, Sterjovski, and Griffiths through suspension. Central Coast Mariners miss Porter and Vanstrattan for this game.
Verdict: Central Coast Mariners to win at 7/5.
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Anderlecht vs Lokeren – both sides to score at 4/5.
Anderlecht welcome back Boussouffa for this game, which is absolutely essential to them at this crucial stage of the season as he brings a lot of creativity and dribbling to the side that many others lack on such a consistent level. However, they’re still missing Biglia and Deschacht and that affects them heavily from a defensive perspective so don’t expect a polished Anderlecht display here. Indeed, Anderlecht have ridden their luck in recent times with red cards helping them more than inspired displays and with a big tie with Hajduk Split looming large in the UEFA Europa League in the approaching days, you may not see Anderlecht at 100% here. They’re also missing Juhasz in defence through suspension so Anderlecht are looking rather vulnerable here from a defensive perspective which is why it’s no great surprise that they’ve conceded in nine out of their last ten games in all competitions. With De Sutter back to vy with Suarez for a place in attack with Lukaku, you have to feel Anderlecht will win this game but with unconvincing displays and a big game in the next few days, I don’t see value in the home win.
Visitors Lokeren have been playing really well too, which won’t help Anderlecht. Admittedly, their strength has been in their home games rather than their away games but they’ve only lost twice in eight Eerste Klasse away games this season because they average scoring over a goal per away game, which is rather impressive for a side with a somewhat limited budget. Lokeren are impressively unbeaten in ten Eerste Klasse games ahead of this clash so they bring strong momentum into this game, especially on the back of their 2-1 win at home to Eerste Klasse giants Standard de Liege. Barring their first away game of the season, Lokeren have scored in all of their away games in the Eerste Klasse, including the difficult trip to face Racing Genk so goalscoring is something they’re really rather familiar with. Leading goalscorer De Ceulaer is in good form this season and with mighty Ivan Leko pulling the strings in midfield and engine Tshinyama sat in front of the defence, you have to feel that Lokeren have the foundation for a good side here and their recent displays and results have indicated that very well indeed.
All in all, I think we’re set for a very good game of football here between two attack-minded sides. If Anderlecht weren’t involved in a big game next week then I’d be more keen on the home win but as they are involved in an important game next week, I’ll pass on the 1×2 market. However, both sides scoring in this game really appeals to me at generous odds of 4/5 as both sides attack and score goals regularly. Head-to-head records do not reflect favourably on my bet here but I’d argue that Lokeren haven’t been as strong as they are now for at least six years so I think it’s worth a shot to back both sides to score at 4/5.
Team news – Anderlecht miss Biglia, Kouyate, Badibanga, Deschacht, Bernandez through injury and Juhasz and Gillet through suspension whilst having doubts over Legear and Kanu. Lokeren have no issues.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
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Cucuta Deportivo vs Once Caldas Manizales – home win with draw no bet at 4/5.
It takes a lot to win a game at the Estadio Santander unless you’re Cucuta Deportivo and Once Caldas Manizales know it with two consecutive losses here. However, more impressively, Cucuta have kept two clean sheets in those two home games against Once Caldas, which is difficult as Once Caldas’ business is to attack and score goals. Their defence can concede against anyone but their attack is dynamite on its day, hence them being one of the best sides in Colombia.
If Once Caldas wanted to win this game then I’d leave it as they’re the better of the two sides. However, they simply don’t care as they’ve won enough games to now be present in the final with either Deportes Tolima or Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota and this game is irrelevant to them. I’d be surprised if they didn’t rest a lot of players here ahead of their inevitable final because it doesn’t make sense to field the likes of Uribe and Moreno in attack or Valencia in midfield when they could be injured and miss the final.
Therefore, I think we’ll see an under-strength Once Caldas side playing tonight and although the game is irrelevant, Cucuta Deportivo will field their first-team as it’s their final home game of the season and they’re playing for pride. Cucuta Deportivo only lost once in nine Primera A home games in the league table part of this campaign and they’ve played two solid home games in the final stages of the domestic season, beating Deportes Quindio 1-0 and drawing 2-2 with Atletico Nacional de Medellin, which would atypically see the hosts win as Atletico don’t generally score twice away from home in the same game so I think they’re unlucky there. Cucuta aren’t a terrific side but they’re well-organised, especially in defence, and make big sides work very hard here to take anything away from the Estadio Santander.
Cucuta have already held Atletico Junior Barranquilla and Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota here this season so they admirably don’t fear the superior sides. I like that about Cucuta. My problem with them is their over-reliance on Carpintero in attack but he’s been immense this season and will no doubt be immense again tonight. All in all, I don’t see Cucuta losing against a likely under-strength Once Caldas tonight. I think there’s a good chance that they can win and covering the home win with draw no bet at 4/5 looks a decent bet to me.
Verdict: Cucuta Deportivo to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
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Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Deportes Tolima – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
This is the deciding Primera A game as to which side reaches the final to face Once Caldas Manizales so it’s a gigantic game between two of Colombia’s best sides. Independiente are currently the set side to face Once Cadas and pleasingly, Tolima have to win this game to replace them as that side so we should see a very open and attacking game here. For me, there isn’t a better home side in Colombia than Independiente although they’ve not been as good as normal this year. However, they remain a very strong outfit and will look to hit Tolima on the counter-attack here whenever the visitors inevitably attack. The omens aren’t too good for Tolima either – they’ve only won once in their last five visits here so they’re in for a tough game tonight. As you’d expect between two good sides, their last few meetings have produced lots of goals with three out of three consecutive meetings going over 2.5 goals. Tolima are arguably the better attacking side out of these two with Medina and Perlaza leading the line but the hosts aren’t without options themselves in attack with Perez and Gonzalez in midfield assisting Nazarit in attack. Therefore, I can only see goals, goals, and more goals in this game so my call here is over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
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Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea – home win with draw no bet at evens.
I’m a bit concerned that this has become something of a public bet. I’m also concerned that Chelsea are a wounded beast and will come out of the traps sooner or later to seek revenge for a barren run.
However, I can’t use superstition to counter statistics so I have to favour Spurs here. A lot of people have questioned the consistency of Spurs ahead of this game, which puzzles me. I share their concerns for Spurs when performing against “lesser” clubs but I have no qualms about Spurs when they face the bigger clubs as Redknapp always gets them riled up and raring to go. Spurs have played terrifically well against Arsenal this season and they gave Manchester United a good game too so I wouldn’t worry too much about consistency here.
I’m a bit concerned about the missing Van der Vaart, although if Modric is passed fit then they should have the necessary creativity to damage a demoralised Chelsea here. However, Spurs’ strength over Chelsea today should be in their midfield pace. Spurs are one of the quickest sides in the Premier League with Lennon and Bale on their respective flanks and sides simply find it very hard to deal against such pace, especially with the likes of Modric/Van de Vaart and Palacios in the centre of the park. Couple that midfield with the pacey attack of Defoe and you have a virtually unstoppable attacking force when Spurs turn up so I have to give them their chances here, especially as Chelsea have lost three out of their last four visits to White Hart Lane, drawing the other.
Spurs’ defence is all that can let them down here. Dawson is back from injury, fortunately, but the calamitous centre-back is not the solution that they need to partner in-form Gallas. Kaboul is a doubt for this game but for Spurs to become a force, they need either King or Woodgate back on a consistent basis. Without them, they’re vulnerable, especially against outstanding attackers Anelka and Drogba.
That said, Chelsea’s attack has been so ineffectual of late that it’s quite unbelievable. I figured Chelsea would be back to basics now Essien is back as he’s the heartbeat of the team but they’re still missing something in attack and I can’t quite put my finger on what it is. They’re still struggling to replace Alex defensively with gaps at full-back occurring often now that Ivanovic has moved into the centre of defence to partner Terry but even Terry isn’t looking himself, no doubt due to a lack of match practice. I do think Chelsea are vulnerable defensively too so I have expect goals to occur in this game. What is the most concerning about Chelsea is their inability to score goals, however. Anelka and Drogba are excellent but neither is in great form and Chelsea are really suffering as a result. I genuinely don’t know why Ancelotti persists in playing Sturridge as he’s simply nowhere near good enough – is he the last move of a desperate man? I think so.
Overall, Chelsea are struggling all over the park for this game. They’re in for a very tough game today and at the very least I don’t see Spurs losing here unless Drogba and co. really turn it on, which they are capable of. For me, taking the home win with draw no bet at evens looks a gift based on recent displays so that’s my call here.
Team news – Spurs miss Van Der Vaart, King, Huddlestone, O’Hara, and Woodgate whilst having doubts over Modric and Kaboul. Chelsea miss Alex, Zhirkov, and Benayoun for this game.
Verdict: Tottenham Hotspur to win with draw no bet at evens.
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Olympique Lyonnais vs Toulouse – Lisandro Lopez to score anytime at evens.
The home win here tempted me but I simply have no faith in Lyon’s defence – it’s shocking!! Their attack has finally improved and it’s no coincidence that it happened at the same time as Lopez’s return to the team. Lopez is the best striker in Ligue 1 and has bagged three goals in their last two games. His clinical finishing gives Lyon a finesse that the likes of Gomis and Briand just don’t bring to their team. Toulouse are not an easy side to beat and can score goals themselves, even without departed Gignac, so I expect them to cause a poor Lyon defence some problems today too. Therefore, I simply cannot get involved in the 1×2 market here – it’s just too dodgy. However, with Lisandro Lopez in such immense form and scoring goals for fun, I like the idea of him scoring anytime today at evens because if Lyon do intend on winning this game, chances are that it’ll be him who is scoring the goal(s).
Team news – Lyon miss Diakhate, Cissokho, Toulalan, Gourcuff, Grenier, Ederson, and Delgado whereas Toulouse miss Cetto, Pentecote, Pele, and Larsen for this game.
Verdict: Lisandro Lopez to score anytime at evens.
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Mainz 05 vs Schalke 04 – over 2.5 goals at 5/4.
Mainz 05 are definitely not the average over 2.5 goals side, hence the good odds on show here. However, I do think there’s a good case for this game going over 2.5 goals and I’ll explain why.
Mainz 05 generally play it cautious at home, winning low-scoring games by taking the lead and defending it. They’re good at it too, hence five wins in eight Bundesliga home games, so they’re a side worthy of respect, although I still don’t believe that they’re capable of being where they actually are in the Bundesliga quality-wise but only time will tell, I suppose! However, Mainz have shipped four goals in three games now and have lost two out of their last five games so their form isn’t as good as it was. They still boast a pretty dangerous attack with Schurrle and Allagui in good form in attack but if they come across a side that scores a lot of goals then they tend to struggle as they don’t score many themselves. The problem with Mainz’s tactics in today’s game is not only that Schalke 04 only know how to attack nowadays but also Mainz are missing Svensson and Zabavnik in defence, which are two key defenders for them and they’ll be vulnerable without them, frankly. I’d certainly think twice about taking the home win here!
Can Schalke 04 take advantage of Mainz’s missing players? In typical Schalke fashion – probably not! However, from a statistical perspective, Schalke have rarely been better this season than they are now. They’ve only lost once in eight consecutive games in all competitions so the visitors do have momentum here. Schalke 04 have even beaten Bayern Munich on the way, although Lady Luck certainly lent them a big hand there! Nonetheless, things are going well for Schalke and that has to be taken into consideration here. Parting with three key defenders in summer and bringing in just Metzelder raised my eyebrows in surprised as Schalke are nothing without their defence and so it proved for a long time. However, they’re rapidly converting to an attacking side and with the lethal finishing of Raul and Huntelaar available to them in attack, I think it’s a move that makes sense. Schalke only miss one player of any consequence today – Jones – and he assists this bet so I think that in-form Schalke have a golden opportunity to record an overdue and somewhat unexpected away win here.
Firepower-wise, Schalke are the better of these two sides. Defensively, Mainz are the better side but they’re missing some important players. With Mainz keen not to disappoint at home and Schalke attacking freely at the moment, I think there’s a better chance of this game going over 2.5 goals than the bookies’ odds reflect.
Team news – Mainz 05 miss Simak, Zabavnik, and Svensson whereas Schalke 04 miss Baumjohann, Jones, Sarpei, Moritz, Hoogland, and Kenia.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/4.
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SC Freiburg vs Borussia Moenchengladbach – home win at 10/11.
SC Freiburg aren’t a great side but you could be forgiven for mistaking them as one when they play their home games. They’ve already won five out of eight home Bundesliga games this season with only Dortmund having won here in Freiburg’s last five home games with Freiburg winning the other four. Freiburg are the kind of difficult home side that bring a physical game to their opponents and constant closing down means you have to be very composed and creative to win here. Cisse in attack is in the form of his life with eleven goals in fifteen appearances and although I have problems with Freiburg’s midfield contribution in general, their defence is rock-solid with Bastians, Barth, and Mujdza just some of the reliable names in defence. It’s pleasing to see ex-Dinamo Minsk academy boy Putsila in midfield here too as I know what he’s capable of – a good attacking midfielder is in the offering here if he produces the same level of displays in Germany as he did in Belarus. To summarise – Freiburg are a very strong home side and have proven it against better sides than Gladbach this season so why not again today, just as they did last season?
I see little from Gladbach to convince me that they’re ready to “stop the rot” at the moment, especially with so many important defensive players still missing. They’ve now lost three consecutive games whilst leaking nine goals along the way so things are bleak for the visitors. Gladbach are still scoring goals, which is impressive and respectable given their dire circumstances, but they’re also still losing games for obvious reasons. A stupid red card for Bobadilla last match leaves Gladbach without one of their better attacking players this season and it was the last thing that they needed with such poor form behind them. There’s only Arango, Idrissou, and De Camargo who are capable of doing anything in attack for Gladbach and against a solid Freiburg defence, I can only see Arango doing something but even he’s going to struggle here as Freiburg are very compact.
Ultimately, you have to expect Gladbach to crash to a fifth defeat in eight Bundesliga away games given their hefty absentee list. Only Bayern and Leverkusen have bagged more than they have away from home this season, amusingly, but that should chance with no Bobadilla in attack. Freiburg are a very compact side and I think Gladbach are in for a rough game today, especially as they approach this game with the unhelpful average of having conceded over three goals per away game. This is the perfect opponent for Freiburg today and at 10/11, they look a good bet as I’d have priced them a lot shorter having seen their missing players.
Team news – SC Freiburg miss Toprak, Pouplin, Krmas, and Bechmann whereas Borussia miss Bobadilla, Reus, Bailly, Dante, Jaures, and Jantschke for this game.
Verdict: SC Freiburg to win at 10/11.
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VfL Bochum vs Osnabruck – home win at 7/10.
Bochum have struggled with injuries this season. If they’d had players available from the start then you could well have seen an even better home record in Bundesliga 2 than four wins in eight games indicates. It’s a similar story today with Concha and Freier likely to miss this game through injury. However, I’m not too concerned with Concha as I don’t have a lot of faith in Bochum’s defence anyway and I don’t expect them to be heavily tested by a poor-travelling Osnabruck side. Freier though – that is a blow – he’s an important midfielder for them and they’ll miss him. Nonetheless, Tae-Se Jong, Saglik, and Decic in attack form a lethal threesome, particularly the pacey Decic feeding Jong, so Bochum remain a good attacking side. Bochum have won two consecutive games ahead of this match, keeping clean sheets whilst beating Paderborn 3-0 at home and Union Berlin 0-1 away from home. This gives the momentum and when you give a good side momentum, they become a dangerous side. Bochum’s problem can often be a lack of concentration, as it was in their bizarre and humiliating defeat at home to Ingolstadt lately. However, the fact remains that they are by far the better of these two sides and have the ideal platform on which to show it.
Visitors Osnabruck have not mastered away games whatsoever since earning promotion from Bundesliga 2. In fact, the only side to have lost more away games than themselves in Bundesliga 2 is Arminia Bielefeld, who won’t be in this division next season with their current squad. Osnabruck have actually lost a shocking six times in seven away games because they simply cannot defend away from home, conceding over two goals per away game. Without Gorka, Barletta, and Nickenig in defence today, that record is unlikely to improve too. To make matters worse for Osnabruck, they miss attackers Diabang and Schmidt, which basically leaves Adler up front on his own. He’s a good goalscorer but he needs Diabang to play off to be effective – without him, Osnabruck are likely to be ineffectual in attack. They do still have Tyrala but it’s just not enough, in my view, so I don’t expect much from Osnabruck offensively or defensively here.
With Osnabruck’s last game being a poor 2-2 draw at home to Paderborn, I think it’s fair to observe that they’re not in the best of form at the moment, especially with just one win in five games. They’re facing a Bochum side that is very capable at home, especially in attack too. Although Bochum have defensive concerns of their own, that combined with attacking absences for Osnabruck makes me think that we’re going to see Bochum attacking more than Osnabruck. Given that Bochum have simply got a better side than Osnabruck, the home win looks something of a gift at 7/10.
Team news – Bochum miss Bonig, Aydin, Concha, and Freier whereas Osnabruck miss Barletta, Gorka, Schmidt, Nickenig, and Diabang.
Verdict: VfL Bochum to win at 7/10.
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Ingolstadt vs 1860 Munich – away win with draw no bet at evens.
First of all, approach this game with caution as it’s a regional derby, although it’s never been played before.
However, I still think the odds are set wrong – and to a crazy degree, too! 1860 Munich welcome back Aigner and Cooper although neither are 100% fit and that gives the superior visitors much more options in attack, which is where they’ve struggled the most this season. That said, only Greuther Furth and Augsburg have scored more away goals than 1860 Munich this season so they’re not struggling that much but Aigner and Cooper turn this side into a much more potent and capable outfit. I doubt either will last the full ninety minutes due to a lack of fitness but both can win a game and this one is no exception. They’ve already won three times away from home this season and entering this game on the back of a morale-boosting victory against promotion favourites Hertha HSC Berlin, you have to fancy 1860 Munich to make their mark in this derby. I mean, I don’t like to dismiss sides too easily but Ingolstadt are one of the poorer outfits in this division and they’ve looked it since obtaining promotion from Bundesliga 3. Their form lately has been good with no defeats in three games but barring Bochum, I’d point to them having not played particularly good sides. This Ingolstadt side has already lost five out of eight home games this season due to not scoring enough goals, which is a big problem in any division. Derbies can often rid sides of their flaws and create new ones but this shouldn’t be a heated derby as there’s no history between these two sides. I expect desire and passion here but nothing more and with that in mind, I really don’t see why Ingolstadt are favourites here.
1860 Munich can be a frustrating side so approach with caution here. However, it’s somewhat undeniable that they’re by far the better of these two sides, especially with their returning attackers, so backing them to win this derby with draw no bet at evens looks a good value bet today as I don’t see them missing this game, even without creative midfielder Bierofka.
Team news – 1860 Munich miss Bierofka.
Verdict: 1860 Munich to win with draw no bet at evens.
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AS Roma vs Bari – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
Although AS Roma miss their best striker Vucinic and their engine De Rossi for this game, I still fancy them to overcome a Bari side that is depleted at the best of times.
Roma don’t really score as many goals as they should, worryingly, but with talisman Totti on the field, the opportunity is always there. They’re always a dominant force at the Stadio Olimpico and five wins and two draws in seven Serie A home games this season indicates that very well indeed. Marco Borriello’s goal mid-week against CFR Cluj in Romania takes his tally to six in fourteen appearances and with that in mind, he should be able to deputise for injured Vucinic today rather well. The creative forces of Pizarro and Simplicio will be key for Roma today if they’re to beat the handicap because it’s always hard for a 4-5-1 side to beat a handicap for obvious reasons. Nonetheless, the players that Roma have available to them makes this very much “mission possible” as they’ve demonstrated by winning by two goals or more twice in their last three home games so I do fancy Roma here.
Of course, the other side of the coin is that Bari’s missing players list is wreaking havoc upon their season. They’re rooted to the bottom of Serie A because they miss and have missed too many attackers and defenders. Consider for this game that Bari not only miss attackers Castillo, Ghezzal, and Barreto, but they also have doubts over Belarusian Kutuzov. There is no way in hell Bari will survive Serie A this season with just Caputo and D’Alessandro in attack – they’re too inexperienced and ineffectual and Bari know it. Bari have Masiello for this game in defence, which is a hefty enough blow, but now that Rossini is suspended for this game too, Bari’s defence again looks very vulnerable. Bari’s defence was their saving grace last season but with it so easily ripped apart this season, it’s hard to see them surviving. Bari lost their last away game 3-0 at Sampdoria and although Sampdoria are the better side, they’re still not scoring goals consistently without Cassano and yet Bari allowed them to do so with silly defensive errors. Bari haven’t scored for three consecutive away games now and whilst they average conceding two goals per away game and scoring just over a goal per every two away games, I can’t see their away form improving at all.
Bari have lost five out of seven on the road this season; after their game against, Roma, it should be six out of eight. Roma have everything in their favour today and even with their own dubious defence, they should still be able to win this game by two goals or more so that’s my call at decent odds of evens.
Team news – Roma miss Vucinic, De Rossi, Riise, Julio Sergio and have doubts over Perrotta whereas Bari miss Rossi, Parisi, Barreto, Castillo, Masiello, Ghezzal, and have doubts over Kutuzov.
Verdict: AS Roma to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at evens.
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Vitesse Arnhem vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam – away win with -1.5 handicap at 6/4.
I’m yet again scratching my head about the generous odds given on Ajax! I know they’re fairly inept defensively and that’s always a problem but they’re still dangerous in attack, even without the suspended Suarez, so why are they 6/4 to win this game by two goals or more?
Vitesse have done quite well lately, losing just once in five Eredivisie games, which was the somewhat acceptable 4-1 annihlation at Groningen in their last game. However, they’ve not really had a test in the remaining four games so I’m certainly not going to get excited over their form. They’ve only lost three out of eight at home this season – another valid point, but they’ve lost those three games to PSV Eindhoven, Twente Enschede, and FC Utrecht, who have been three of the better sides this season, and would you believe it – all three sides won here by two goals or more! Vitesse aren’t a particularly good home side on average because they don’t score anywhere near enough goals, even with talented Slovenian playmaker Stevanovic in their ranks. Marcus Pedersen may be the solution to that problem with the Norweigan prodigy having signed from Stromsgodset but he’s doubtful for this game, lessening Vitesse’s chances of scoring. Key midfielder Buttner misses this game, as does creative midfielder Aissati as he’s on loan to Vitesse from Ajax. All in all, this Vitesse side is left looking rather bereft of goals and really quite youthful so I just don’t fancy the hosts here at all.
Ajax won at Gelredome 1-5 last season and whereas I’d be surprised to see a similar scoreline, I certainly feel that they’re capable of beating the -1.5 goal handicap here. Suarez is missing – let’s get over it – he wasn’t playing particularly well before he was suspended anyway. Jol has moved on and de Boer is in charge and if their display at the San Siro mid-week is anything to go by then Ajax will frankly win the Eredivisie title! I think part of it has to be down to a lifeless AC Milan display but the manner in which Ajax played was hungry, incisive, and inspired – the kind of inspiration you get when a former Ajax legend takes over at the helm. Ajax supposedly had this “Suarez crisis” when they faced VVV Venlo away lately but they won that game 0-2. I fervently hope that El-Hamdaoui is passed fit for this game for Ajax as he’s a good forward, albeit de Boer seems to prefer playing him on the wing. Emerging playmaker Eriksen stole the show mid-week and he can do so again if he passes like that again. Ajax have always had promising youngsters and they still do even now. Indeed, de Boer has called up Wesley Sneijder’s younger brother for this game and he may feature at somepoint. If he’s anything like his brother than Ajax have yet another gem in their midst. Either way, I still think Ajax have more than enough in their locker to win this game comfortably, to be honest.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that in the last six wins that Ajax have recorded over Vitesse at either ground, they’ve won each game by two goals or more. I also don’t think it’s coincidental that when Vitesse encounter quality at home, they tend to lose convincingly. With Vitesse missing some key players and Ajax buoyant after their mid-week display, the away win with a -1.5 goal handicap at 6/4 looks a gift to me.
Team news – Vitesse miss Buttner, Verbeek, Linssen, Ofrany, and Gentenaar whilst having doubts over Pedersen whereas Ajax miss Suarez, Lodeiro, Vermeer, Atouba, Josefzoon and have doubts over El-Hamdaoui and Ozbiliz.
Verdict: AFC Ajax Amsterdam to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 6/4.
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Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Espanyol – Fernando Llorente to score anytime at 11/10.
Head-to-heads and general home advantage may steer you towards Athletic winning this game but as an Athletic fan myself, please be very careful here!
The reason I advise that is because Athletic haven’t been playing well lately. They’ve been poor for five consecutive Primera Liga games with scrappy goals and a lot of luck. Their 2-0 defeat at bitter rivals Real Sociedad will have hurt their pride too so I don’t expect a “proper” Bilbao display today. If I thought that they’d turn up then I’d back the home win at evens and possibly even take the handicap because Espanyol are traditionally poor travellers and this season is no exception. However, Bilbao aren’t playing well but Espanyol certainly are. The Basque-Catalan rivalry is re-united here and with Espanyol in good form, I wouldn’t put it past them to sneak a result here, especially with star striker Osvaldo in such good form. Espanyol won at Atletico Madrid in their last away game so they can certainly win here, especially with the momentum they’ve gained from six consecutive games without defeat. Pochettino is a good manager and his Espanyol side is very solid. With few notable absentees, Espanyol are primed to give Bilbao a tough game here so I don’t wish to enter the 1×2 market here whatsoever, much as I’d like to!
However, Espanyol are one of those sides that somehow give 50% less on the road than they do at home. There’s no logical explanation for this but it’s just what happens, bizarrely. I do have to side with Bilbao with that in mind but I can’t back them knowing how badly they’ve played. However, Bilbao do always score goals at home; that’s simply how they operate with good attacking football. They’ve scored in every Primera Liga home game this season and Fernando Llorente has scored in three out of their seven home games. Whether Bilbao play a 4-3-3 or a 4-5-1, he remains the focal point of every attack with his towering frame and if Bilbao score, it tends to involve him. At home, they press a lot and score from set pieces a lot, which he again is very good for. Therefore, I prefer to approach this game with a different angle; my recommendation is to back Llorente to score anytime at 11/10. If Bilbao do turn up then the likelihood is that he’ll do the goalscoring as there isn’t anybody else in this side that can replace him so he has to play. For me, taking him to score anytime at 11/10 is a good value bet because even if Bilbao resort to “Plan B” then they long ball it to him every time. So, yeah – Llorente to score anytime at 11/10!
Team news – Athletic miss Ustaritz, Ibai Gomez, Balenziaga, Ion Velez, and Aitor Ocio whereas Espanyol miss Marquez and Baena.
Verdict: Fernando Llorente to score anytime at 11/10.
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Real Mallorca vs Racing Santander – home win at 4/6.
The old Real Mallorca aren’t back yet under Michael Laudrup but they’re not too far off either. This bet is based more on the ineptitude of Racing Santander rather than the ability of Mallorca, however.
From a long-term perspective, the “swap” that has seen Santander lose Tchite to Standard de Liege and sign Rosenberg from Werder Bremen will bear fruit as he’s frankly a better striker. However, Tchite was a lot more mobile than Rosenberg so it’s no coincidence that Santander have become sitting ducks away from home with their 4-5-1 being led by little pace. Indeed, Santander have lost six out of seven on the road in the Primera Liga already this season, averaging conceding approximately 2.5 goals per away game and scoring just over a goal per every two away games. Santander’s last three away defeats have come at Levante, Real Sociedad, and Malaga respectively so it’s not like they’ve been dealt all the hard away games around this time either. Worryingly, Santander’s defence has been getting worse and worse of late away from home and they won’t be too happy to play against a Mallorca side that you need pace to play against. Mallorca’s defence is very competent in the air due to their experience so Rosenberg won’t faze them here, not with Nunes in defence. The door is open for Mallorca to boost their fairly impotent goalscoring record this season, however, with Santander inept in defence. Mallorca have won three out of their last four home games and have kept two clean sheets so momentum does side with them today. Webo and Cavenaghi have started to look good in the Mallorca attack and with Castro in excellent form as ever, I have to side with Mallorca here.
Mallorca have won this fixture for three consecutive seasons now. After this game today, I expect that to become four wins from four seasons. Mallorca have already won four out of seven at home this season whilst conceding just twice, which gives them one of the best defensive home records in the division. Indeed, it makes me want to take Mallorca to win to nil, just like they have for three seasons. Nonetheless, I’ll stick with my initial call, which is Mallorca to win this game outright as it’s priced incredibly generously at 4/6.
Team news – Real Mallorca miss Tejera, Ayoze, Enrich, and Tuni whereas Racing miss Miguel Arana Rodriguez, Tziolis, and Serrano.
Verdict: Real Mallorca to win at 4/6.
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Grasshopper Zurich vs Basel – away win at 3/4.
This game is very much a rivalry battle so ignore the table here; don’t go sticking your life savings on the away win!
However, I do have to favour Basel to win this game against Grasshopper. Sforza is really struggling in charge of Grasshopper due to departed players and injured players. As a result, he’s been busy buying players but none of them can join the club officially until January, which leaves Grasshopper in a bit of a shit situation, to be honest. Grasshopper are bottom of the table with five defeats in eight home games, which isn’t good enough whatsoever for a club of their size and stature. The reason behind that is not scoring goals as they’ve scored less than a goal per home game on average. Conceding goals is something Grasshopper have long had in their characteristics, even when they were a good side, but it’s harming them a lot now that they can’t counter that problem by scoring goals themselves. You look at their attackers and it’s quite terrifying how bad they are, to be honest – former Challenge League striker Emeghara is leading the line with others taking turns to partner him, including sixteen year-old Adili, who just isn’t ready yet! There’s not enough experience or depth in this Grasshopper side whatsoever and in attack, they’re especially missing departed Argentinian striker Zarate. Bluntly, Grasshopper are sitting ducks currently as defeats at home to Sion and Bellinzona respectively of late have indicated all too well.
Fink says he may rest Streller for Basel but nothing is guaranteed yet so you’ll have to wait to see the line-up. I still fancy Basel without him, to be honest, given the ineptitude of this Grasshopper side. Basel have already won four games from eight on the road in the Super League this season because they average scoring nearly two goals per game and only concede a goal per away game on average, which makes them a strong side. They’ve not won at the Letzigrund since 2007 but I’d argue that Grasshopper haven’t been as weak as they are now for many years. Basel’s last Super League game resulted in a win against fellow giants Young Boys Bern, which will have given them a morale boost. They’ve won three out of their last four away games in the Super League too, which gives them some momentum here too. Even without the potentially missing Streller, Basel still have Frei in attack and support from midfielders Yapi-Yapo, Stocker, Chipperfield and Tembo so Basel still have a big advantage here for me and that should be enough to secure the away win.
As this is a rivalry match of sorts, do approach this game with caution. However, I can’t look past a Basel win that is generously priced at 3/4 with all of the above in mind – I just hope that Grasshopper don’t wake up solely for this game!
Verdict: Basel to win at 3/4.
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Accumulator fodder
Estudiantes De La Plata, Omonia Nicosia, APOEL Nicosia, Olympiakos Piraeus, Panathinaikos, AS Roma, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, Zwolle, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Real Mallorca.
Recommended bets:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam, AS Roma, and Barcelona at 2/1.
Fernando Llorente to score anytime and Lisandro Lopez to score anytime at 3/1.
Real Mallorca, Kortrijk, and Real Madrid at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Arsenal de Sarandi (8) 2-0
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Velez Sarsfield (7) 1-2
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Banfield (6) under 2.5 goals
Colon de Santa Fe vs Newells Old Boys (5) under 2.5 goals
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC vs Brisbane Roar (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Perth Glory vs Central Coast Mariners (6) 1-2
Austrian Bundesliga:
Salzburg vs Sturm Graz (6) 1-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht vs Lokeren (6) both sides to score
Kortrijk vs Lierse SK (7) 2-0
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad de Chile vs Union Espanola (7) over 2.5 goals
Audax Italiano vs Huachipato (6) 1-0
Colombian Primera A:
Deportes Quindio vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (5) 1-0
Cucuta Deportivo vs Once Caldas Manizales (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Deportes Tolima (6) over 2.5 goals
Atletico Huila vs La Equidad Bogota (6) 1-1
Cypriot Division 1:
Enosis Neon Paralimni vs APOP/Kinyras (6) under 2.5 goals
Omonia Nicosia vs AEK Larnaca (8) over 2.5 goals
Ermis vs APOEL Nicosia (8) 1-2
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Emelec Guayaquil vs Liga de Quito (6) 0-0
English Premier League:
Bolton Wanderers vs Blackburn Rovers (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Birmingham City (6) 1-1
Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea (4) 2-1, draw no bet
English League One:
Charlton Athletic vs Walsall (6) both sides to score
French Ligue 1:
Olympique Lyonnais vs Toulouse (6) 2-1
AS Monaco vs Saint-Etienne (5) 1-1
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Stade Rennais (6) under 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga:
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (7) 2-1
Mainz 05 vs Schalke 04 (5) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
VfL Bochum vs Osnabruck (7)
Hertha BSC Berlin vs Erzebirge Aue (7)
Ingolstadt vs 1860 Munich (6) draw no bet
Greek Super League:
Xanthi vs Kavala (6) under 2.5 goals
Panserraikos vs Panionios (5) 0-0
Ergotelis vs Kerkyra Corfu (6) 2-1
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos (8) over 2.5 goals
AEK Athens vs Larissa (6) over 2.5 goals
Asteras Tripolis vs Panathinaikos (8) 1-2
Italian Serie A:
Bologna vs AC Milan (6) 1-2
Brescia vs Sampdoria (5) 0-1, draw no bet
Cagliari vs Catania (6) 1-1
Lecce vs Chievo Verona (5) over 2.5 goals
AS Roma vs Bari (8) -1.5 handicap
Juventus vs Lazio (6) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
Vitesse Arnhem vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (8) -1.5 handicap
Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar (5) 2-1
Heerenveen vs Twente Enschede (5) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Excelsior Rotterdam (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Zwolle vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (8) over 2.5 goals
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Go Ahead Eagles (6)
Peruvian Primera Division:
Universidad San Martin vs Leon de Huanuco (7) 2-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Espanyol (6) 1-0
Sporting Gijon vs Levante (6) 2-1
Hercules Alicante vs Malaga (5) 1-1
Real Mallorca vs Racing Santander (8) 2-0
Real Zaragoza vs Real Madrid (8) over 2.5 goals
Barcelona vs Real Sociedad (9) -2.5 handicap
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Salamanca vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (4) draw no bet
Granada vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (5) over 2.5 goals
Recreativo de Huelva vs Tenerife (6)
Albacete vs Barcelona II (3) draw no bet
Swiss Super League:
Grasshopper Zurich vs Basel (7) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Neuchatel Xamax vs Sion (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Young Boys Bern vs St.Gallen (6) 2-1
Turkish Super Lig:
Sivasspor vs Konyaspor (5) over 2.5 goals
Istanbul BB vs Trabzonspor (6) 1-1
Gaziantepspor vs Kayserispor (6) 1-1
Ankaragucu vs Fenerbahce (7) 1-2
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Aragua vs Estudiantes de Merida (6) 0-0
Zulia vs Caroni (6) 2-1
Deportivo Lara vs Atletico Venezuela (6) 2-0
Zamora vs Caracas (5) 0-1
Mineros de Guayana vs Carabobo (5) 1-0
Deportivo Anzoategui vs Trujillanos (4) 1-1
Atletico El Vigia vs Monagas SC (6) 0-0
Deportivo Petare vs Deportivo Tachira (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Real Esppor Club vs Yaracuyanos (5) 2-1
Welsh Premier League:
Bala Town vs Neath Athletic (6) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!