Libertad Asuncion vs Once Caldas Manizales
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Copa Libertadores encounter in Paraguay between Libertad Asuncion and Once Caldas Manizales of Colombia. With Libertad having already qualified for the latter stages of the tournament and Once Caldas needing to win this game, we should be in for an interesting game here.
Libertad won their last game in Peru 0-1 against Unviersidad San Martin, which on paper, looks very calm and composed; even experienced. However, this is South American football; you’ll rarely find displays of that nature on this continent and this one was no exception. Despite having ten men for a large portion of the game, Universidad San Martin dominated the game and even missed a penalty, the rebound hit the post, and they have numerous chances cleared off the line. Libertad Asuncion were very lucky not to concede, hence me focusing far more on the fact that Libertad have conceded in every Copa Libertadores game in the tournament thus far barring that one. Libertad’s offensive power is their strength with nine goals scored in four games but will they be motivated for this game? I don’t see why. They had a big derby with Olimpia just a few days ago which didn’t go according to plan and with this game being somewhat redundant, I don’t think we’ll see the proper Libertad here.
Once Caldas Manizales are arguably the most unlucky side in the Copa Libertadores. How they’ve not won any games yet is utterly beyond me as they continue to dominate games without taking their chances to a sufficient level. They should have beaten Libertad in Colombia earlier in the tournament, just as they should have won at home to San Luis of Mexico in their last game but again misfortune set about them and they suffered. With a deadly attacking duo of Wason Renteria and Dayro Moreno, this side has arguably the most potent frontline in Colombian football for some years and Once Caldas duly pose a great threat because of it. As they need three points here and as they cannot defend for shit, it’s reasonable to expect Once Caldas to attack here and if they do then Libertad will most likely concede at least once but Once Caldas will also concede too – defending simply isn’t their forté.
Therefore, backing both sides to score here appeals to me. Intriguingly, Once Caldas fielded a full-strength team against Deportivo Pereira in their domestic game at weekend so they could be a little tired here, just as their hosts may be. Tired teams can make mistakes and with these two attack-orientated sides locking horns in a game that only one side needs to win, I think we have the ideal recipe for both sides scoring in this encounter.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Caracas vs Universidad Catolica – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Bizarrely, the reversal of this fixture ended 1-3 in favour the Venezuelan visitors Caracas, which was strange. The fact that they won wasn’t a great surprise as some of you may recall that I tipped a close game with Caracas winning the game with a +1.5 goal head start in the members section. However, the fact that Caracas scored three times surprised me a lot because they’re not a potent side at all. They’re a wealthy club by Venezuelan standards and can now be considered to be a very experienced side on the continent, as their impressive defensive displays continue to show. They’re certainly more experienced than Unviersidad Catolica in recent years, although Catolica are the bigger side. Caracas have only had one of their three games in the Copa Libertadores in the current campaign go under 2.5 goals but in all truth, the other two should have with the 3-0 win for Velez Sarsfield in Argentina flattering the hosts against the ten-men visitors and the 1-3 win in Chile being a flattering result for Caracas. Caracas have no pressure here; anything they do in this tournament is generally heralded as success domestically so they can play their defensive game and hold off Pizzi’s Universidad Catolica here. Catolica are playing well domestically this season but in front of goal, they’re not doing enough, in my view. They’ve had some bizarre results in the Copa Libertadores thus far but I think this one really should make a lot more sense. There’s no altitude advantage in Caracas so the game is level for both sides. Catolica need the points more than Caracas and Caracas are very good at defending. South America has never been ideal for under 2.5 goals calls due to the flambuoyant nature of the sides there but for me, this game looks good value at evens for going under 2.5 goals.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Etoile, Flora Tallinn, Trans Narva.
Recommended bets:
Flora Tallinn and Trans Narva at evens.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa Libertadores:
Libertad Asuncion vs Once Caldas Manizales (3) both sides to score
Caracas vs Universidad Catolica (5) under 2.5 goals
San Luis vs Universidad San Martin (4) 1-2
English League One:
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Notts County (6)
Charlton Athletic vs Southampton (6)
Colchester United vs Oldham Athletic (7)
Leyton Orient vs Dagenham & Redbridge (6)
English League Two:
Torquay United vs Cheltenham Town (4)
Burton Albion vs Stevenage (5)
Port Vale vs Hereford United (3)
Crewe Alexandra vs Accrington Stanley (6)
Morecambe vs Macclesfield Town (4)
Aldershot Town vs Barnet (6)
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Paide vs Kuressaare (4) 0-1
Nomme Kalju vs Maag Tammeka Tartu (7) 2-1
Trans Narva vs Ajax Lasnamae (9) -1.5 handicap
Viljandi vs Levadia Tallinn (5) under 2.5 goals
Flora Tallinn vs Sillamae Kalev (8) under 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Tanjong Pagar (9) -1.5 handicap
Enjoy your free betting tips!