Lorient vs Montpellier HSC
FreeToday’s featured game is the Ligue 1 encounter between Lorient and Montpellier HSC. Neither side are the same as the ones that graced Ligue 1 with some excellent displays last year but each has remained true to itself tactically so we know what to expect here from flambuoyant Lorient and compact Montpellier.
At the start of this season, I had made up my mind not to back Lorient at home for some time because of their big losses player-wise. I basically didn’t think they had enough to do what they did last year, in essence. How wrong was I! Lorient may hinge their hopes in front of goal on Gameiro but he’s certainly not disappointing with an impressive return of eight goals in sixteen games. Lorient haven’t changed a bit despite their departures though, and that has impressed me. Lorient still play their attacking football to whatever fate it brings them. It saw them lose 6-3 at LOSC Lille but it’s also seen them flatten good defensive units like Stade Rennais and Racing Club Lens recently too. The key to Lorient’s success at home isn’t their players, however – it’s their artificial turf. It’s a pain in the backside to play on if you’re not used to it and Lorient reap the benefits of it almost every time they host another Ligue 1 club here. Therefore, Lorient’s record of six wins in nine Ligue 1 home games is understandable. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and the only side to not lose at the Stade Yves Allainmat – Le Moustoir in Lorient’s last six home games in Ligue 1 was a very in-form Paris Saint-Germain, who managed to salvage a 1-1 draw at this difficult venue. Lorient have beaten the likes of AS Monaco, Valenciennes, Stade Rennais, and Racing Club Lens along the way and whereas most of those names aren’t especially household names nowadays, they’re all very hard sides to beat due to their compact nature but Lorient broke them down and score at least two goals past each of them. Lorient have actually kept three clean sheets in their last four home games in Ligue 1 and boast one of the best defensive records in the division at home so they have a bonus there that I hadn’t previously thought possible. As a result, Lorient become an exceptionally dangerous home side and their record so far this season reflects that.
Montpellier know how dangerous Lorient are already, however. They’re a rather shrewd side and very able tactically so they’ll have done their homework for this game. They claimed a 2-2 draw here last season but they’ll have to do what nobody else has done since the start of the current Ligue 1 campaign to emulate that scoreline by scoring two past Lorient on their own turf. Considering the firepower and creativity that Montpellier have lost since last season, I rate their chances much lower than the bookies do when it comes to getting a result here. I’ll admit that Montpellier are very good defensively but they’re terrible in front of goal. They’ve scored just four goals in nine away games in Ligue 1 this season – only bottom club Arles have a worse record than that! It doesn’t help them that they’re missing experienced midfielder Pitau for this game either, especially at a venue where experience is essential to obtain a result. Montpellier are winless in their past four games and although you can argue that they’ve had tough fixtures, I’d counter that with the fact that Montpellier have to win at least some of those games to be the side they feel that they should be. Whichever way you look at it, Montpellier will be a little demoralised coming into this game – any side would having gone for nearly a month without a win – so I don’t expect much from them tonight. Indeed, Montpellier have failed to score in three out of their last four away games and if they fall behind against Lorient tonight then I fear that their goalless record may be further prolonged by their impressive hosts.
For my money, Lorient are the better of these two sides. They play better football, they’re more interesting to watch, and they have better goalscorers. However, Montpellier are better tactically and demonstrate it by rarely throwing leads away so they’ll enter this game looking to steal a goal from a set piece and to sit on it. I doubt they’d have too much success against a potent Lorient side – perhaps a draw at best – but they don’t have an alternative, in my view. If Lorient play as well at home as they have done of late then I fully expect them to get the first goal and go on to win the game, just as they usually do. Gameiro is key here; feed him and he’ll score. If Lorient do that, they should make 11/10 on the home win look very profitable indeed.
Team news – Lorient have replaced Jouffre with Bourillon and thus boast a largely full-strength squad whereas Montpellier miss Pitau for this game.
Verdict: Lorient to win at 11/10 – why not bet on this game now at Bwin?
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Angers SCO vs Tours – home win at 23/20.
Angers welcome back Auriac for this game from injury to boost their midfield but I still can’t quite put my finger on what’s missing with this Angers side. Quality-wise, they’re good enough to be in the top seven places, just as they have been there or thereabouts for the past few years. However, it seems that they’ve been hit with goalscoring problems with only ex-Nantes striker Keseru consistently finding the net whilst Arnaud, Dore, and Charbonnier flounder behind the Romanian hitman. Angers still play a good brand of football but it’s less beneficial if they’re not finishing off the moves and that in itself has seen Angers slip closer to the relegation zone than the promotion places, which is naturally not what they want at all. They’ve been composed in defence, however, which is at least one good point for tonight’s hosts. They should be able to maintain that tonight too, although experienced defender Gillet is absent. I’m not as concerned about that as I perhaps should be as you’ll be able to see below. However, Angers are a good side masquerading as mid-table dossers and I think it’s time that they showed what they’re made of. They’ve been very good at home lately with only a good Le Mans side winning here in their last five home games with Angers winning three times along the way. I think it’s fair to say that Angers bring some good momentum into this game with the above in mind so they should be taken seriously here.
It also helps that Tours aren’t good travellers. In fact, they’ve never been good travellers in this division, even when they’re in-form. I don’t know they can’t play the same football away from home but it just doesn’t work out for them. A quick glance at the Ligue 2 table shows you how strong they are at home and how easily they fail to emulate it on the road and I expect more of the same tonight, in all honesty! Why? Well, Tours’ “purple patch” has well and truly ended with no wins in five consecutive games in all competitions, losing four times along the way. Hell, they’ve even lost at the delightfully named Cognac in the Coupe de France during that run so you can see how low their morale is becoming. They put up a spirited fight at in-form Dijon FCO but still lost lately and their last match at home to Nimes was the icing on the cake as an uncharacteristic 0-2 defeat was dished out by a poor-travelling Nimes side. Tours will eventually get themselves out of this mess; they always do. However, I just cannot see it happening tonight because their defence is being far too easily penetrated currently and their attack is ineffectual. The defensive issue is one I can’t shed any light on other than demoralised players but their attacking impotence I can shed light on as both Guie and Buengo miss this game tonight and either one or both of them have for a while now. Tours are really suffering without them as their replacements aren’t really what Tours require, especially away from home, so what we have here is what I call “sitting ducks” with Tours in the middle of nowhere and going nowhere fast!
My biggest fear is that Angers will draw blank here. Tours can defend on their day and Angers’ problem this season has been scoring goals. Nonetheless, they’ve been scoring for fun lately at home and have beaten some good sides so they should relish the trip of poor-travelling Tours, especially with such a bad run of form behind them and their two main strikers absent. Therefore, my call is the home win at 23/20.
Team news – Angers miss Gillet whereas Tours miss Guie and Buengo.
Verdict: Angers SCO to win at 23/20.
Stade Lavallois vs Troyes – home win at 23/20.
I like backing Laval at home. I can’t say that I do it too often due to their consistent goalscoring problems but they’re one of the finest home sides in Ligue 2 and that’s why I like backing them. Indeed, despite being just outside of the relegation zone currently, it’s quite remarkable that Laval boast the best defensive record in the division at home. Indeed, they’ve conceded just one goal in eight Ligue 2 home games so my hat goes off to them there. They average scoring just over a goal per home game and are a consistent force on their own turf with sides always struggling against them here. Regrettably, Laval have been on a bit of a poor run lately, which no doubt accounts for the generous odds on show. Nonetheless, they’ve smashed ten goals past their opponents over their past five home games in all competitions and they’ve even beaten mighty Sedan-Ardennes along the way so don’t underestimate the hosts here – they really should be a lot further up the table, in my humble opinion.
It also appeals to me that Laval are hosting Troyes. Troyes started this season really well but their qualities of being a France National side rather than being a Ligue 2 side are beginning to show through at long last. Indeed, Troyes now haven’t won a game in nine consecutive Ligue 2 encounters, which is a terrible record and shows why they’ve slipped from the top of the table into mid-table annonymity, which they’d have probably taken had they been offered it at the start of the campaign. Why are they in this predicament? One word; goals. You think Laval have problems scoring goals? Troyes have scored once in six consecutive Ligue 2 games, which includes both home and away games. They don’t concede many goals, to their credit, but when they do they tend to lose because they don’t score any themselves, hence four defeats in their last six Ligue 2 games. They’ve lost three consecutive away games leading into this one and their demoralised side is now looking rather predictable and somewhat vulnerable. They miss Guilideye in midfield for this game, which is a hefty blow as he’s been an important part of Troyes’ team so far this season. All of the afore-mentioned is amassing against Tours and a trip to Laval is the last thing they’ll want right now but that’s unfortunately the hand they’ve been dealt and I think they might just find themselves on the receiving end of a defeat tonight as a result.
Much like my preview on the Angers game, my concern tonight is Laval drawing a blank as they have done in the past (i.e. at home to Istres). However, demoralised sides tend to gift more chances to their opponents and Laval have been good at home lately so I’ll take a chance on them taking their chances tonight. Troyes can defend but that’s all they have in their game whereas Laval at least boast some strikers worthy of being in Ligue 2. This game is all about the first goal, however – whoever gets it should take all three points. In my eyes, that side cannot be Troyes with such a poor goalscoring record and with Laval’s defence so strong currently so if anyone is to score then it should be Laval. For me, the home win at 23/20 is therefore decent value as I view it as effectively backing Laval to score a goal in this game. Backing Laval to keep a clean sheet is also worth a thought here too.
Team news – Troyes miss Guilideye for this game.
Verdict: Stade Lavallois to win at 23/20.
Le Mans vs Vannes OC – home win to nil at 23/20.
A quick glance at the Ligue 2 table is enough to have some of you orgasming over your shreddies whilst smashing money on the -1.5 goal handicap here but I’m not so sure.
Le Mans have been immense lately, it’s true. I think it’s fair to observe that they’re one of the most in-form sides in Ligue 2 currently and are playing some good football to boot. However, this side doesn’t score many goals at home, and that concerns me here. Ligue 2 is not a great place for handicapping as it is so I can’t take them with the handicap in this game. Vannes OC have a horrific away record with an average of over two goals conceded per away game whilst scoring just four goals in nine away games in Ligue 2 so Vannes should really end up losing this game. However, I’m just not convinced that Le Mans are playing well enough to beat the handicap in this game so I’m going to avoid that in favour of a hopefully more-reliable bet!
My call is for Le Mans to win this game without conceding, basically. Vannes are a terrible away side; their record demonstrates that very well indeed. They’ve lost eight out of nine on the road this season and six of those have occurred without them scoring a goal. One of their more recent drubbings was a particularly unimpressive 3-0 defeat at relegation-threatened Istres so I can’t take Vannes seriously here, as good as they can be at home. Le Mans really should win this game, especially on the back of four straight wins. I can’t say I’m fond of 1/2 on any side in Ligue 2 to win any game, to be honest – it’s a dicey division at the best of times – but I do like the prospect of Le Mans winning this game without conceding as they’ve done it for three out of their last four home games and Vannes are a terrible away side. For me, that selection represents more value than the handicap does so that’s my call tonight.
Team news – Le Mans miss Lamah, Dieye, and Narry whereas Vannes miss Riviere for this game.
Verdict: Le Mans to win to nil at 23/20.
Nimes vs Metz – home win at evens.
This is the riskiest call of the night so approach with caution. I’d also leave it if it drops below evens as Nimes aren’t worth it past that, in my view.
Nonetheless, Nimes do look very tempting here at evens. Metz are a good side but only when it comes to keeping the ball and keeping their opponents out. In front of goal, I don’t think this side has been good since they had Saha and Pires in their squad, to be honest, which was a bloody long time ago!
So this tip basically boils down to whether Nimes are good enough to shatter Metz’s stiff resolve or not. Nimes have already won five out of nine Ligue 2 home games this season and with five wins from their last six games in all competitions, you have to give them their dues for this game tonight. They’ve won four out of four at home during that run and have looked very composed throughout. The icing on the cake was an impressive 0-2 victory at Tours in their last game as although Tours were missing important players, Nimes are generally poor on the road but that win will keep the momentum flowing and Nimes’ confidence on the up. They miss defender Bocognano and midfielder Mostefa for this game, the latter of which is the bigger blow. However, when a side is in as good form as Nimes are, the absentees tend to slip by in a much more unnoticed fashion as the side becomes a solid unit and that’s where Nimes are at so I still fancy them tonight.
I liked them even more when I heard that Metz’s preparations suffered a setback when they were unable to catch their train due to severe weather conditions and thus had to take the bus instead. The bus ride from Nimes to Metz is no five minute journey either – you’re looking at a good five hour drive or something in that vicinity. Metz have already lost four out of their eight away games in Ligue 2 this season and this one isn’t looking much better with the above in mind. They’d have no doubt hoped to be given the opportunity to emulate their heroic 0-2 win at Boulogne in their last away game but they’re facing a much more in-form side tonight and therefore I don’t see them enjoying this game. Indeed, they’re missing some big names too with experienced Engelbert and Senegalese academy product Diagne missing from their usual five-man midfield, not to mention the absence of important defender Bregerie, squad rotation striker N’Diaye, and back-up striker Bourgeois. Metz still possess a first-team that is capable to do well in this division, contrary to my thoughts earlier this season after their financial crisis. However, one of the terms of that is that they cannot afford to miss important players or they immediately become a below-average side and that’s what I expect to see from Metz tonight – they’ve got too many players missing for my liking!
I do rate Metz, as you can no doubt ascertain from the above. However, a lot is going against them tonight and in-form Nimes really should be able to capitalise on that. The bookies seem to be somewhat aware of that, unfortunately, so I do have to repeat my warning about not backing this selection below evens – Nimes have not done enough this season to prove to me that they’re worthy of being backed in a game like this against a good side but with shorter odds. However, whilst Nimes are at evens, I’m all for the home win here.
Team news – Nimes miss Bocognano and Mostefa whereas Metz miss Bregerie, Engelbert, Diagne, N’Diaye, and Bourgeois for this game.
Verdict: Nimes to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Celtic
Recommended bets:
Celtic and Lorient at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
French Ligue 1:
Lorient vs Montpellier HSC (7) 2-0
French Ligue 2:
Angers SCO vs Tours (6)
Boulogne vs Dijon FCO (5) draw no bet, under 2.5 goals
Clermont Foot vs Grenoble Foot (6)
Evian Thonon Gaillard vs Reims (6)
Istres vs AC Ajaccio (5)
Stade Lavallois vs Troyes (6)
Le Mans vs Vannes OC (7) under 2.5 goals
Nimes vs Metz (6)
Scottish Premier League:
Celtic vs Kilmarnock (8) 2-0
Welsh Premier League:
Aberystwyth Town vs Airbus UK (6) 1-0
Haverfordwest County vs Carmarthen Town (5) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!