Netherlands vs Japan
FreeI’d like to take this opportunity to rant at the ref in the Germany vs Serbia game, who was unquestionably the worst referee that I have ever seen. He’s completely ruined the game and thus cost both myself and the majority of the site’s users a lot of money so on behalf of us all – a massive “fuck off” to Undiano Mallenco.
Today’s featured game is the World Cup encounter between Netherlands and Japan. Netherlands didn’t win anyone over with a fairly ineffectual but beneficial 2-0 victory over a stout Denmark but nonetheless they did win the game and a win today gives them a superb chance of making the second round. Japan also enter this game on the back of a well-marshalled win against Cameroon in their opening game as Japan demonstrated how to win without playing great football so we should see an interesting game between these two sides today.
We all know Netherlands have another gear to go to and I think today might be the day that we see it. Nervy opening games have dominated this World Cup thus far but the second game for each side so far has proven to be a lot more open and we’ve therefore seen bigger scorelines as a result. There’s no doubt in my mind that Netherlands are the better of these two sides and odds of 2/5 on them to win the game today are justified, in my opinion. I’m not fooled by their unconvincing opening game – they’ve got bags of ability and are capable of scoring goals from all over the park so write off the Dutch at your own peril. Netherlands have been most prone in defence in the games leading up to the World Cup but kept a clean sheet against Denmark as I expected due to an ineffectual Danish attack. I don’t think the Dutch defence is particularly good, per se, especially not when they play such reckless but talented attacking football. However, what enthuses me about this selection today is that they keep the ball well and do have good experience in their team so they shouldn’t be too troubled today against an inferior Japanese side.
Japan are a side that I respect an awful lot due to their efficient displays but the fact remains that they don’t score enough goals. Against sides like Cameroon last match, Japan have some joy because the Africans are not sound tactically but the Asians are. Japan won that game on their terms in typical narrow fashion and fair play to them. However, they’re now facing a Dutch side that not only attacks better than the Cameroonians but also have a strong sense of tactical ability themselves so Japan have to be really careful here. Japan’s defence don’t concede many so I’m not convinced they’ll get battered here. They didn’t even get battered on their trip to Netherlands last year despite the scoreline indicating such – Netherlands simply took their chances better towards the end of the game, which is similar to what I expect to happen today. Japan’s Honda will again be crucial to their overall display having spent a lengthy period of time playing in Netherlands for VVV Venlo so he’ll know what he’s up against today. Midfield is the area that Japan must control to stifle Netherlands but despite their credentials to do so, I don’t fancy their chances of stopping the likes of Sneijder and Van Der Vaart today so I think Japan will find themselves on the end of a possession-battering but not a heavy scoreline defeat.
Ultimately, Japan don’t offer enough in front of goal to trouble a fairly shaky Dutch defence so I think the odds are good to back Netherlands to win to nil, particularly as the Dutch always score goals, irrespective of whether they’ve earned them or not. Japan should keep the ball quite well when they get it and I don’t expect Netherlands to stroll the victory but I do think they’ll win without Japan scoring and the odds are good enough to back the selection at, in my opinion.
Verdict: Netherlands to win to nil at 11/10.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Cameroon vs Denmark – Denmark to keep a clean sheet at 6/4.
Cameroon showed against Japan that they don’t have an effective enough attack against well-organised defences. Cameroon will no doubt be unhappy that they’re now facing an even better side defensively because I expect them to yet again be thwarted in that area. Cameroon’s defence is a bit shaky but frankly Denmark’s attack is weak so I don’t see value in backing Denmark to win to nil here as it could remain goalless. However, Cameroon are up against it to score against a Kjaer and Agger partnership that even had the Dutch reeling last match with the 2-0 scoreline flattering the giants against the Scandinavians. It’s imperative that Denmark don’t lose this game because if things work out as they should then a win against Japan (after drawing this game, of course!) could see them go through. Therefore, a clean sheet is essential for the Danes as they don’t have the option of outscoring most opponents in their team. I like the chances of the Danes holding strong though – they’ve been strong defensively in the games leading up to the World Cup but luck has been against them. However, to keep a clean sheet today at 6/4 looks an interesting bet in my opinion.
Verdict: Denmark to keep a clean sheet at 6/4.
Ghana vs Australia – Ghana to win in-play.
I can’t find any pre-game odds that interest me here. There’s no value on Ghana to win this game at 10/11 – what’ve they done to earn those odds? Australia aren’t as bad as their first game suggests and Ghana aren’t as good as their result against Serbia suggests. Don’t get me wrong – Australia without Cahill offer little in the way of attacking and they have looked unusually prone in defence both during their game against Germany and pre-World Cup. With that in mind, I expect even a fairly goal-shy Ghana side to capitalise and thus have their chances to win the game. My problem is that I don’t feel 10/11 is a fair reflection of Ghana’s attack, which I believe don’t score enough goals. I’d be looking to back Ghana at 5/4 or above to be seriously interested in this game – otherwise I’d simply give it a miss. Even a leaky Australian defence doesn’t sway me from the impotence of the Ghanaians and don’t forget that the Aussies do have a good defence on their day – they’re simply not having their day(s) currently!
Verdict: Ghana to win in-play.
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Dinamo Minsk – away win at 5/4.
This is a much bolder call than it looks so I can’t possibly endorse heavy bets on this one. Naftan have let themselves down in the Vysshaya Liga this season but Novopolotsk remains a tough trip for any Belarusian side. Despite an underwhelming start to their season, Naftan have still only lost twice in seven home games so don’t underestimate them here. Their league place doesn’t show their quality level whatsoever and if they were in-form then I wouldn’t touch this game whatsoever. However, Naftan aren’t playing well, which is the undeniable fact here. They’re not losing many – just twice in their past five games – but they’re not winning games either as they’ve mustered just two wins in fourteen games this season. Their problems stem entirely from not scoring goals as they’ve scored just once in their past seven games – just twice in their past eleven games, in fact! Their defence is generally rock-solid so I think they’ll trouble Dinamo Minsk today but they don’t score goals so I’m banking on them not scoring here.
Dinamo Minsk have won two out of their last four trips to Novopolotsk, which is quite an acceptable statistic, in my opinion – few sides in this division can boast such a record. Dinamo Minsk aren’t a great goalscoring side so it takes a lot to convince me to back them on the road but let’s face it – there’s a lot in their favour at the moment. They’ve already won six out of seven away games in the Vysshaya Liga this season – the best record in the division by far – and average scoring nearly two goals per game, which is remarkably good for their possessive 4-5-1 formations. To cap that off, Dinamo have now won five consecutive games so momentum and morale are exceptional currently. They left it late against a resilient Neman Grodno but still won the game thanks to a late goal from midfield prodigy Sergey Kislyak, thus showing the level of believe that Dinamo have currently. Dinamo haven’t conceded in three consecutive games now so why they’d start now against a very impotent Naftan Novopolotsk is beyond me despite Naftan’s blatant ability.
As I stated earlier, this game is a lot riskier than it looks because it only takes one goal for the old Naftan to be back and they’re virtually unbeatable at home when they’re in-form. However, Dinamo Minsk are playing so well that I can’t help but back them to do what they did here last year and win. They also have the additional motivation of BATE Borisov losing at home to Dinamo’s local rivals FC Minsk last match, which was a shock to everyone. That defeat leaves Dinamo just two points behind their title rivals so motivation should be high here. The odds are therefore good enough to back the selection at although expect a very calculated game with few goals here.
Verdict: Dinamo Minsk to win at 5/4.
Vitebsk vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk – away win at 7/5.
With just one win in seven home games this season, including three defeats, I’m not sure why the bookies are giving such generous odds on the away win here. Vitebsk are without a win in eleven consecutive games and haven’t scored in five out of their last six games so I really don’t rate their chances here. They’re a tad better than their league placing suggests but not enough for the bookies to price Shakhtyor Soligorsk at such long odds. Vitebsk have lost four out of their last six meetings against Shakhtyor, beating them just once along the way, so losing to their more illustrious opponents isn’t an unfamiliar thing for them and thus they’re capable of experiencing that feeling yet again today.
Shakhtyor traditionally started their Vysshaya Liga campaign slowly but are starting to fire on all cylinders now. They’ve won two out of their last three trips here and are well-placed to make it three wins from four trips given their excellent recent form of no defeats in their past six games, winning their last four consecutively and conceding just one goal along the way, which went to Torpedo Zhodino in a 4-1 win last match. Shakhtyor have travelled to Novopolotsk and hosted BATE Borisov during that time so they’ve not had easy games but have emerged triumphantly and are scoring goals for fun. They’ve notched up a total of ten goals in their past four games, which makes them look very dangerous indeed for this game. They’ve already won three out of seven away games this season, losing just once along the way, so they deserve your respect here. Only reigning champions BATE Borisov have conceded less away goals than today’s visitors so I don’t envision Shakhtyor conceding here today.
Ultimately, these odds look too good to be true. They’re scoring freely, not conceding, and they’re facing an impotent Vitebsk side. Shakhtyor should be closer to 11/10 or possibly evens for this one but I’m happy to see that the giants have been underestimated here. Shakhtyor have an extra string to their bow, incidentally – goals for them come from all over the park so they’re very much a solid team rather than individuals, which I personally think is very key in away games.
Verdict: Shakhtyor Soligorsk to win at 7/5.
NSI Runavik vs HB Torshavn – home win at 5/4.
These are surprisingly good odds yet again! I appreciate that the Faroese Meistaradeildin is far from the most popular league when it comes to betting but there’s still value there and the bookies that put odds on for that league seem to often make a mess of it. Knowing my luck, that means this will undoubtedly end 0-3 but anyway!
NSI Runavik and HB Torshavn are two of the top dogs in this division and the Meistaradeildin table finally shows that after sluggish starts for both sides. However, it’s NSI that are running the show currently with eight consecutive wins giving them massive momentum, particularly with twenty-three goals scored along the way – nearly three goals scored per game on average! NSI even won at bogey side Vikingur Gotu last match despite a testing game, not to mention their heroic 5-3 win at in-form IF Fuglafjordur despite trailing 3-1 during the game. The spiring in the NSI camp currently is untouchable and I’ll give them their chances at home to title rivals HB Torshavn today, particularly having beaten them at home for five out of the last six visits that HB have made here.
HB won here last season and have now beaten NSI for three consecutive games, which is a little worrying. That does give additional motivation to NSI, however, so I won’t view it too suspiciously. It also helps that HB are stuttering a little at the moment too. They’ve won just once in their last three away games and that was against newly-promoted Suduroy so I’ve not been overly impressed with them on the road. The few wins they have won on the road have all been narrow ones too with HB focusing on defence more often than not, which is interestingly a polar opposite to hosts NSI Runavik today. HB have won just twice in their last five games, however, which isn’t really good enough for a club of their size. Their atypically strong defence was shattered twice by B36 Torshavn and once by lowly AB Argir in recent times so I’ve no real faith in their defence currently. If HB don’t have their defence, they look very vulnerable indeed and they’re facing the most in-form and potent side in the Faroe Islands today so this should be a very interesting game indeed.
Do approach with caution here but barring head-to-head records, I can’t see why NSI would be as long as they are for this game. HB aren’t defending well enough and NSI are on fire at the moment, particularly with experienced striker Christian Jacobsen scoring goals for fun and emerging talent Klamint Olsen contributing heavily to NSI’s impressive goals haul. It’d take a braver man than me to oppose NSI today so I’ll be backing the home win at fairly generous odds.
Verdict: NSI Runavik to win at 5/4.
AC Oulu vs TPS Turku – home win at 17/10.
This was so close to being my game of the day but I just opted for the Dutch instead. Why?
Well, AC Oulu are bizarrely third in the Veikkausliiga table, which shows how unpredictable the division has been thus far because they can consider this season a roaring success if they finish third from bottom, such is their lack of quality. However, you can’t argue with momentum and with three consecutive wins, AC Oulu are playing really well! It’s not like they’ve beaten some no-hopers either – they’ve beaten a strong (although out-of-form) Inter Turku 2-0 away, title challengers FC Honka Espoo 2-0 at home, and then went and won 3-0 at FC Lahti last match, who are poor in front of goal but are at least solid at the back – they hadn’t conceded in three games prior to that despite facing reigning champions HJK Helsinki and in-form Tampere United during that time! Therefore, AC Oulu are playing very well, far better than I’d ever have imagined them capable, to be quite honest! AC Oulu have only conceded in one of their last five games and form favours them massively so I’ll give them their chances today!
However, feet on the ground here guys – TPS Turku are definitely the better side, no questions asked. That’s where the risk comes in and that’s why the bookies have priced this quite fairly, in my view. That said, there are a few factors that require your attention that do make this bet seem a bit more interesting here. TPS have only won once on the road this season in five games. True enough, they’ve only lost once, but ultimately they don’t score enough on the road and that has hindered their overall display this season. All I can say is thank God that prodigal son Jonatan Johansson has returned to TPS Turku because without him they’d be in the same boat as FC Lahti at the moment – unable to score goals. My other point relates to their squad depth. You may remember at the start of the Veikkausliiga campaign that I mentioned TPS losing players over the transfer window that weren’t really replaced. That’s still the case, very much so, but as the Veikkausliiga season wears on, we encounter a little thing known as “fixture congestion”. TPS are a big side and are expected to compete on various fronts so they do but they don’t have the squad to do it successfully and that’s something I expect to show today. They’ve now played four games in ten days – three in their last five! – so they’ve got to be tired. They’ve got a fairly small squad of players and the trip to Kuopio has now been built upon by TPS having a lengthy trip north to the inhospitable and intimidating Oulu, which is a long way for the visitors.
Therefore, I think we’re finally going to see this thin squad stretched to breaking point today against a very in-form AC Oulu. The odds are good enough to back it at so I’d recommend giving it a whirl despite the obvious quality gap between the sides that favours the visitors.
Verdict: AC Oulu to win at 17/10.
Real Betis Balompie vs Levante – lay Real Betis Balompie at 21/10.
I simply cannot believe that the bookies have given Betis 1/3 to win this game!! What the hell is going on here?! They’re aware that Levante need to do anything but lose this game to secure promotion, surely? Segunda Liga rules dictate that if sides finish level on points, the deciding factor is then head-to-heads followed by goal difference and then goals scored. As this is the final game of the season, let’s assume that Hercules Alicante win their final game to do all they gain to gain their long overdue promotion. That puts them above Levante on goal difference as the two sides both beat each other 2-1 earlier in the season. Therefore, Levante losing this game is fatal for them – it’s an unthinkable result for them so they’ll be laying their lives on the line for their club to do anything but lose this game. Betis need to match Hercules’ result to obtain promotion so they have to push on against Levante here, admittedly, but they have an abysmal record against a very solid Levante side, failing to beat them in their last four meetings at either ground, losing three times along the way. Betis have beaten Levante just once in their last three attempts at home and lost at Levante earlier in the season. What has changed since then? Nothing. Levante are more than good enough to match overrated Betis here and with Betis’ home form being patchy of late (just two wins in their last four games), I have to endorse laying the hosts at unbelievably generous odds! It’s almost like the bookies feel that Levante have nothing to play for here, which is ridiculous!
Verdict: Lay Real Betis Balompie at 21/10.
Ljungskile vs Jonkopings Sodra – home win at 10/11.
Ljungskile are beginning to look like a very dangerous force indeed in the Superettan now. They’ve combined their impressive run of clean sheets with the ability to score goals and are now benefiting massively with three defeats, one draw, and just one defeat in their last five consecutive games. They’ve won three and drawn two in their five home games this season but no side has conceded less than they have at home in the Superettan and they’ve won four out of their last five home games now, with their most recent win being a rather unusual 5-1 thrashing of newly-promoted Brage. Their home game before that was a win against giants IFK Norrkoping so it’s wise not to underestimate the in-form and efficient hosts.
It also helps when they’re facing a Jonkopings Sodra side that concede too many goals on the road. They’re a better side than the Superettan table suggests, in my opinion, but the fact remains that only Syrianska Sodertalje have conceded more away goals with Jonkopings averaging conceding over two goals per away game currently. The form chart shows four wins in Jonkopings’ last five games, which is a bit misleading as four of those games were at home. The one I’d pay attention to is the one that shows Jonkopings winning just once in their past four away games, conceding heavily in three of those games (including a 4-1 defeat at newly-promoted Brage) with their only win being a nervy win at relegation-threatened Vasby United, eventually running out 4-3 winners. I can’t question their ability to score goals and as I said earlier – I do rate them as a decent side. However, they’re conceding far too many goals and that’s a really dangerous thing to possess before facing a very in-form Ljungskile side. Ljungskile don’t concede goals often so even at fairly short odds of 10/11, there really should be value in the home win today
Verdict: Ljungskile to win at 10/11.
Degerfors vs Vasby United – home win at 4/5.
This one is a pure momentum bet for me. Newly-promoted Degerfors are enjoying their “honeymoon” run in the Superettan which almost certainly won’t last them the campaign but they’re certainly making the most of it at the moment. They’ve won four out of five home games already this season thanks to some clinical finishing and effective defending so they’re worthy of your respect. They’ve won three out of their last four games and their last home game resulted in a 4-2 win against recently-relegated Hammarby so they’re certainly a force to be reckoned with on their day.
Truth be told, I don’t genuinely believe there’s much between these two sides quality-wise, although Degerfors at least have a past to support their cause! However, Vasby United, despite their very best efforts, cannot escape from the fact that they’re shit. It’s an unfortunate fact but they’ll be lucky to avoid the drop this year, in my opinion. They’re leaking so many goals at the moment and have now lost three consecutive games, which naturally does a lot of damage to morale. They’ve leaked nine goals during those games and although they’ve scored in two of those games, they’re simply being outscored and it’s only a matter of time before a lack of confidence stops them scoring and they enter a dead-end street form-wise as a result. Vasby have lost two out of their last three away games and whilst they’re averaging conceding three goals per away game, it’s hard to see that record improving, particularly against an in-form host like Degerfors.
The odds are a bit shorter than I’d like to back a newly-promoted side but you still have to favour in-form Degerfors to get the job done today at 4/5.
Verdict: Degerfors to win at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Netherlands, BATE Borisov.
Recommended bets:
Netherlands and Dinamo Minsk at 2/1.
BATE Borisov and Shakhtyor Soligorsk at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
World Cup:
Netherlands vs Japan (8)
Ghana vs Australia (6) 2-1
Cameroon vs Denmark (5) 0-0
Baltic Cup:
Estonia vs Latvia (6) 0-0
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Dinamo Minsk (6) 0-1
FC Minsk vs Dinamo Brest (6) 2-1
Belshina vs Torpedo Zhodino (5) under 2.5 goals
Partizan Minsk vs Dnepr Mogilev (5) 1-2
Vitebsk vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk (7) over 2.5 goals
Neman Grodno vs BATE Borisov (7) under 2.5 goals
Danish 1st Division:
Frem vs AC Horsens (4) both sides to score
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
NSI Runavik vs HB Torshavn (6) 2-1
B71 Sandur vs IF Fuglafjordur (6) 1-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
AC Oulu vs TPS Turku (6) 2-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
PS Kemi Kings vs PoPa Pori (6) over 2.5 goals
Latvian Virsliga:
Jauniba vs Tranzits Ventspils (6) 1-0
Daugava Daugavpils vs RFS/Olimps Riga (7) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Geylang United vs Home United (5) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Cartagena vs Albacete (6)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Recreativo de Huelva (5)
Real Union Club de Irun vs Hercules Alicante (4)
Castellon vs Cordoba (5)
Real Betis Balompie vs Levante (5)
Villarreal II vs Salamanca (4) draw no bet
Cadiz vs Numancia (6)
Celta de Vigo vs Huesca (5)
Elche vs Real Sociedad (5)
Las Palmas vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (6)
Girona vs Real Murcia (6)
Swedish Superettan:
Ljungskile vs Jonkopings Sodra (7)
Degerfors vs Vasby United (7)
Falkenberg vs IFK Norrkoping (4)
Angelholm vs Trollhattan (5) under 2.5 goals
Osters vs GIF Sundsvall (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!