Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Real Madrid
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Spanish Primera Liga game in Madrid between Rayo Vallecano de Madrid and league leaders Real Madrid.
I just can’t look past the gulf in class here. Rayo have already lost six home games this season from just eleven Primera Liga games – only rock-bottom Zaragoza have lost as many home games as that! Fortunately, Rayo’s counter-attack on the road has done them the power of good but they’re very vulnerable at home. Rayo’s defence is easily stretched and let’s face it – they’re very short on quality due to not being able to reinforce the squad because of financial issues.
Today they’re hosting what is effectively the best side in Spain this season – Real Madrid. They’ll be disappointed to have thrown away the lead in Russia earlier this week against CSKA Moscow as they dominated the game. However, Mourinho’s side has finally adopted his winning mentality and a simple failure to win doesn’t appear to destroy their world anymore. Real Madrid are top of the league this season not because they’re better than Barcelona but because they perfect beating the lesser sides. Real Madrid have won nine out of eleven on the road this season and average scoring nearly three goals per away game. They’re never reliable defensively but I’m going to be stunned if they don’t score at least two or three goals here.
Benzema is out but there’s more than enough firepower in Real Madrid’s ranks to secure a dominating win against their vastly inferior hosts. For me, there’s value on Real Madrid beating the -1.5 handicap today.
Verdict: Real Madrid to beat the -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Norwich City vs Manchester United – home win with a +1 Asian Handicap at evens.
I’m a Man Utd fan so I truly hope this tip loses but I have to admit that there’s value in it, at least from my perspective!
Norwich have been one of the hardest sides to face in the Premier League this season at Carrow Road. No side has had an easy game against Lambert’s boys and I doubt that’ll change today. Their physical strength, tenacity, and desire to score goals makes Norwich an absolute nightmare to face.
When Norwich came to play United at Old Trafford earlier this season, I was there, as usual. I expected United to win without playing well but whilst being in control of the game. It’s traditional that United don’t destroy newly-promoted sides – I don’t know why, but they almost never do. Anyway, I couldn’t have been more wrong with my expectations as Norwich ran the show and really should have won the game. A lack of composure hurt them whereas United took their chances and won 2-0.
A lot has changed since then in terms of players getting more weary etc. United entered a strong run of form and Norwich are never far from a good run themselves, although they have looked a bit leggy from time to time in the past few weeks. Nonetheless, I expect these two sides to give each other a thorough game here. Norwich’s defence is far from secure but their attack can trouble United in this game.
The most crucial element for United has to be the absence of Valencia, though. He’s been their best player since the turn of the year and tends to have a hand in most of their goals. Now, United have a big squad and can put someone in his place but the trouble is that only one other person provides an outlet like he does and that’s Nani. For me, Nani is outstanding and unplayable but he’s not fully fit following his injury yet and it shows. Young isn’t good enough/confident enough to do the job so United’s wide game could be in real jeopardy here. If they lose the wide game then they’re going to struggle to score goals, especially with Cleverley injured again.
That plays a big part in my tip, really. If Nani turns it on then United can win the game but I don’t expect a dominating win if so. I anticipate a close game and I’d be lying if I said that I thought Norwich had no chance of getting a result here because they do. Whether this tip wins or not depends on a couple of factors but I don’t think it’ll lose unless United do something unexpected here.
Verdict: Norwich City to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Siena vs Palermo – both sides to score at 4/5.
Target man Calaio is out for Siena but it doesn’t take anything special to score against Palermo so I think that they’ll still manage it here. Siena aren’t a particularly good side and have gone off the boil a bit lately but Palermo on the road can concede against anyone. They pay little attention to defending, hence their predicament. However, they’ve come on leaps and bounds since the signing of Donati in midfield with Palermo’s attacking game improving massively. Miccoli was already a handful before but with Donati behind him and big Budan in decent form alongside him, Palermo look a real threat, even away from home! They’re playing well right now, Palermo, but I still can’t ever bring myself to back them to win away from home! However, I do think that they’re playing well enough to score here and they’re defending badly enough to allow Siena to score so taking both sides to score at 4/5 interests me a lot here.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Lazio vs Fiorentina – home win at 6/5.
Lazio are in disarray following Reja’s second attempt to resign but the Lazio board refused. With that having happened, though, it’s only a matter of time until Reja does move on, one way or another. However, Lazio are the kind of club that are never far from disarray in one way or another and they seem to thrive on it in a way that I can’t explain; perhaps the underdog factor? They’ve got a big squad and plenty of quality players so they should be able to produce at least a decent display here. To be honest, I don’t envision it taking more than that for Fiorentina to lose this game. They’re a dreadful away side with no adventure nor attacking threat away from Florence. They lose all confidence and composure on the road and I can’t see that improving here, especially with the likelihood that Amauri will miss this game. Fiorentina’s midfield may have pace but it’s predictable and lacks leadership. A good first twenty minutes or so should be enough for Lazio to control the game and although this is likely to develop into a scrappy game, I think Lazio have more than enough to win the game and thus the home win appeals to me at 6/5.
Verdict: Lazio to win at 6/5.
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord Rotterdam – away win with +1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Alright, so PSV are richer than Feyenoord and arguably possess better players than them. Should they really be so short here, though? I don’t think so. I’m really happy with PSV’s devastating attack, youthful though it unquestionably is. They’ve got so many talented attacking options that it’s easy to see why people often over-estimate PSV. However, take a while to watch their defence – it’s truly frightening. This backline has no cohesion, little communication, and zero faith in goalkeeper Isaksson. They constantly make mistakes and thus you’ll almost never find PSV keeping a clean sheet.
Feyenoord deploy a similar game to PSV with similar results. Feyenoord’s squad is younger, though, and thus they make more mistakes than PSV. However, in terms of attacking, Feyenoord aren’t bad themselves. They’re notorious for rearing talented attacking players, which includes playmaker Wijndalum, now with PSV Eindhoven. They still have talented attacking players, however, and they love to upset the odds!
Now, the big talk for this game is regarding Swedish striker Guidetti, who is with Feyenoord on loan from Manchester City. This striker is tearing up the Eredivisie and is a big part of Feyenoord’s attack. However, an act of stupidity against RKC Waalwijk means he misses this game today. He scored a penalty as the game drew to a close against RKC, took his shirt off in celebration, and received his second yellow card of the game. RKC managed to equalise with a header before the end of the game and Feyenoord drew 1-1 in a game that they really should have won. Guidetti has thus been suspended by the Dutch FA for this game – very stupid move from Guidetti, if you ask me.
However, it looks like his absence has heavily contributed to PSV’s short odds and that’s something I don’t agree with. Feyenoord have other talented attacking players and boy do they hate PSV! Half the squad Feyenoord has now was part of the massacre that took place in Eindhoven not so long ago so there’s no way that they won’t give 100% here.
I expect an open game with plenty of goals here but I don’t see why PSV are so short. Maybe they will win the game; they arguably should. Feyenoord are capable of surprises in big games, though, and I expect them to show up here. Whether they lose the game or not, I think giving Feyenoord a +1.5 handicap at 4/5 is very appealing here.
Verdict: Feyenoord Rotterdam to win with a +1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Standard de Liege, Anorthosis Famagusta, Bv09 Borussia Dortmund, Twente Enschede, Porto, Sporting Clube de Lisboa, Rangers, Real Madrid.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Tigre (6) 2-1
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Banfield (7) 1-0
Boca Juniors vs Newell’s Old Boys (7) 2-0
Velez Sarsfield vs Arsenal de Sarandi (7) 2-1
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Heart vs Central Coast Mariners (6) 1-2
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Ried vs Salzburg (5) 0-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege vs Sint-Truiden (8) 2-0
Racing Genk vs Club Brugge (6) 2-2
Lierse SK vs Anderlecht (7) 0-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Antofagasta vs Union San Felipe (5) 1-0
Cobresal vs Union La Calera (6) 1-0
Union Espanola vs Universidad Catolica (6) 2-1
Colombian Primera A:
Envigado vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (6) 1-1
Deportivo Cali vs Itagui Ditaires (6) 2-1
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Deportes Quindio (7) 1-0
Croatian Prva Liga:
Osijek vs Split (5) 1-1
Cypriot Division 1:
Ethnikos Achnas vs Enosis Neon Paralimni (6) 1-0
Ermis vs Anorthosis Famagusta (8) 0-2
APOEL Nicosia vs Nea Salamis (5) 2-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Viktoria Zizkov vs Mlada Boleslav (7) 0-1
Ceske Budejovice vs Bohemians 1905 (5) 2-1
Viktoria Plzen vs Dukla Prague (7) over 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Quito vs Liga de Quito (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Barcelona Guayaquil vs LDU Loja (7) 2-0
English Premier League:
Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Norwich City vs Manchester United (4) 1-1
Stoke City vs Swansea City (6) 1-1
English League Cup:
Liverpool vs Cardiff City (7) 2-1
French Ligue 1:
Stade Brestois vs Olympique de Marseille (6) 0-1
Toulouse vs Sochaux (7) 2-1
Stade Rennais vs LOSC Lille (6) 1-1
German Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich vs Schalke 04 (4) 1-1
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Hannover 96 (8) 2-1
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabia Haifa vs Beitar Jerusalem (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Italian Serie A:
Chievo Verona vs Cesena (4) 1-1
Cagliari vs Lecce (7) 2-1
Catania vs Novara (7) 2-0
Siena vs Palermo (4) 1-1
Atalanta Bergamo vs AS Roma (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Lazio vs Fiorentina (7) 1-0
SSC Napoli vs Internazionale (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Bologna vs Udinese (7) 0-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Morelia vs Cruz Azul (6) 1-1
Pumas UNAM vs Queretaro (7) 2-0
Guadalajara vs Santos Laguna (6) 2-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
Excelsior Rotterdam vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Twente Enschede vs FC Utrecht (8) over 2.5 goals
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (4) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen (5) 2-2
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Independiente FBC vs Cerro Porteno (7) 1-2
Tacuary vs Sportivo Luqueno (7) 1-0
Rubio Nu vs Olimpia Asuncion (7) 0-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Slask Wroclaw vs Legia Warsaw (6) 1-1
Wisla Krakow vs Korona Kielce (7) 2-0
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Pacos de Ferreira vs CD Nacional de Madeira (5) 1-1
Beira-Mar vs Vitoria Setubal (6) 1-0
Olhanense vs Gil Vicente (7) 2-0
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Rio Ave (8) 2-1
Porto vs Feirense (9) -1.5 handicap, at least one red card in this game
Scottish Premier League:
Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Rangers (8) 0-2
Spanish Primera Liga:
Villarreal CF vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (6) 2-1
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Real Madrid (8) over 2.5 goals
Valencia CF vs Sevilla CF (7) 2-1
Osasuna vs Granada (7) 1-0
Real Sociedad vs Real Mallorca (6) 1-0
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona (7) 0-2
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Celta de Vigo vs Almeria (6)
Cordoba vs Las Palmas (6)
Swiss Super League:
Grasshopper Zurich vs Lausanne Sports (6) 1-1
Sion vs Servette (7) 2-0
Swiss Challenge League:
Aarau vs Lugano (5) both sides to score
Bellinzona vs Stade Nyonnais (7)
Chiasso vs Wohlen (6)
SC Kriens vs Wil (4)
Vaduz vs Locarno (7)
Biel-Bienne vs Etoile Carouge (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Genclerbirligi vs Sivasspor (5) 0-0
Istanbul BB vs Antalyaspor (6) 1-0
Trabzonspor vs Mersin Idmanyurdu (5) 1-0
Galatasaray vs Besiktas JK (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Danubio vs Rentistas (7) 2-0
Cerro vs Rampla Juniors (7) 1-0
Racing Club Montevideo vs Cerrito (7) 2-1
Defensor Sporting vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Enjoy your free betting tips!