Standard de Liege vs Germinal Beerschot
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Eerste Klasse game between heavyweights Standard de Liege and misfits Germinal Beerschot.
Hosts Standard de Liege have not always been impressive this season. Indeed, their good displays have come almost entirely at home and I expect that to continue with a couple of notable absentees and a lack of consistency. However, it’d be stupid to label this side as anything but a top three side in Belgium, in my humble opinion, and therefore we have to take them seriously. Barring an unfortunate game against Cercle Brugge, the only sides that have played well enough to avoid defeat here have been Racing Genk and AA Gent respectively, which alone tells you how well you have to play to get a result in Liege. Standard do still have some very good players and with seven wins from ten home games already under their belt this season, I think we’re likely to see another strong home display from Standard. They will miss star striker Tchite for this game and are likely to miss his fellow attacker Cyriac, which are blows, particularly Tchite. However, they’ve got enough creativity in midfield and good enough movement to at the very least win this game and thus I fancy them a lot today.
Additionally, Germinal Beerschot are not in a good place right now. There are rumours of financial problems at the club, which wouldn’t be a surprise, and they also miss two instrumental players for this one. Germinal’s record on the road may look flattering in terms of how many goals they score but I just don’t rate them as a good away side. They ship far too many goals on the road and think far too often with their hearts rather than their heads. Their biggest issue here has to be the absence of Sidibe. Without him, there is no attack – he is the power, the holding up, the goalscorer, the aerial threat – everything. There is nobody that can replace him in this team. He’s only scored six goals for them this season but considering the quality of the side that he plays in and how many he’s had a hand in creating, I think he’s done very well. I rate him highly, to be honest – in the right squad, he’s dynamite. He’s unhappy with his pay packet and has gone back to Hungary to find a new club if we are to believe the media. It’s worth noting that Sidibe has scored more goals on the road this season for Germinal than he has at home, too – this should tell you how important he is for them. The other massive loss for Germinal is integral defender Kagelmacher, who is reportedly on the verge of securing a move to German Bundesliga outfit Kaiserslautern. Without him, there is no defence and Germinal’s record in the Eerste Klasse shows you that defending is far from a strongpoint of theirs as it is. Suffice to say that I really don’t rate their chances today!
Standard have won this fixture for five out of their last seven meetings and have beaten the -1 Asian Handicap in four of those five wins. Standard may be a little lacking in front of goal but anything aside from a Standard win today would surprise me so the insurance side of the bet should be activated. With Kagelmacher likely to have gone, I think there’s going to be more than enough chance for Standard to score more than one here so my call is for Standard to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Verdict: Standard de Liege to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Aston Villa vs Everton – under 2 goals at 7/5.
There aren’t many games that I’m looking forward to less than this one, to be honest. Villa have been so dour and uninspired under McLeish that it’s just terrible to watch; my sympathies go to the fans who pay their hard-earned money to go and watch that shambles every week. They look absolutely ineffectual when it comes to creating things and breaking sides down in the final third at home. They look much better on counter-attacks away from home due to their pace and talented individuals but breaking sides through at home is something that is proving elusive for today’s hosts.
Now, Villa have signed Robbie Keane on loan to aid them in their plight. Whereas I have no qualms over the ability of Robbie Keane, nor his extensive Premier League experience and constant tenacity, I simply don’t know why Villa have signed him. In my view, Villa don’t struggle with putting the ball in the net, not with Bent and Agbonlahor in their side. No, what they struggle with is making chances and with all due respect to Robbie Keane, he’s not the kind of player that is going to improve Villa’s creativity. So, yeah – I don’t get this signing and I think we’ll see another uninspired defensive display from an underachieving side.
Everton should really come here for the draw. Although they worked hard against Spurs mid-week, they simply looked tired and lacking in creativity in the final third. I can’t think of a single occasion where Everton actually tested Friedel in that game and Everton only had a couple of five minute spells where they could actually keep the ball and launch attacks. Moyes will have been pleased to welcome back Cahill into midfield alongside Fellaini, which is easily the best central pairing that the club can boast, in my view. Moyes has said that he expects a couple more of his absent players to return in this game too so Everton should be able to keep Villa out easier than perhaps initially anticipated.
So, yeah – we have two sides here that are generally very happy to take draws rather than pushing for wins and in their respective situations, you can understand that approach. Everton may hand Gibson a debut to rest some tired legs and he’s relatively experienced in the Premier League so again, I expect a stout display from Everton. I’d not even dream of entering the 1×2 market for this game but going under 2 goals really appeals to me at long odds of 7/5, cheeky though it unquestionably is!
Verdict: Under 2 goals at 7/5.
Blackburn Rovers vs Fulham – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Ah, just when you think it can’t get any worse for Blackburn, it suddenly does get worse, somehow. Chris Samba has been their defensive rock for some time and the news that he has handed in a transfer request will not sit well with Blackburn. You can’t blame him, though – he’s been suffering with this shit for some years now and he’s always handled it professionally. I wonder if there’s any coincidence that this has happened at a time when the manager that brought him to the Premier League (Mark Hughes) has been appointed as the new manager of defensively-inept-but-rather-wealthy Queens Park Rangers? Either way, his possible departure along with Hoilett’s potential departure for struggling Blackburn is doing no good to the team’s cohesion. Blackburn have some decent individuals, especially in-form Yakubu, but there’s nowhere near enough cohesion nor team spirit nor support from the fans for me to take Blackburn seriously right now.
Fulham are starting to play ominously well under Martin Jol and I like how it’s still kind of slipping under the radar. There’s still plenty of work for Jol to do but he’s making this Fulham side into a proper passing side with flair players and they look good for it. Their number one concern has to be a striker that suits their style and Jol knows it, hence their repeated attempts to sign Catania hitman Maxi Lopez. However, they’ll have to do without a new striker here although they do welcome back Andy Johnson here, which gives them an option at least. He doesn’t really fit into their new style of play and he’s not playing with confidence but he works hard and is up against a defence that looks like complete strangers so even he may do a job here. Fulham’s instrumental players have rapidly become Dembele and Ruiz, in my view, with the two looking very dangerous in their “free roles” in midfield and it’s ultimately made Fulham’s game much better off-the-ball. Fulham just look a far better side than they were at the start of the season and on the back of a spirited and rewarding recent run of form, I really fancy their chances at Ewood Park today.
You know, a year ago, I’d never have tipped this game. Why? Well, Fulham are notoriously bad on the road and Blackburn are notoriously good at home. It’s funny how times change, eh? I may get burnt by this game but with the above in mind, the away win at 4/5 really appeals to me here.
Verdict: Fulham to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Catania vs AS Roma – home win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Maybe I’m biased here as I am a bit of a Catania fan but I really like the chances for the hosts to win this one and I’ll explain why.
1. Roma have no discpline. None whatsoever. The trip to Sicily to face Catania is one of the most pressurised away games in Serie A, in my view. Catania are feisty, tenacious, dirty, and well-supported – they know exactly how get under the skins of their opponents and I think that they’ll cause at least one red card for Roma today. Roma have already had five red cards this season – that’s an average of over a red card per every three games!
2. It’s very hard to score at Catania. Your team has to play really well and in a very composed fashion and although I admire the individuals of Roma, I do not admire them as a team whatsoever as the present time.
3. Roma hate playing in Sicily. They’ve not won here since 2007 against either Catania or Palermo and it’s no surprise, really – it’s a very intimidating part of Italy to play football in.
4. Catania play good football. They’ve not been as dangerous in front of goal this season as they’d have liked but they’re not a side to be underestimated.
Roma have had some very favourable results lately and you cannot fault them for taking their chances. However, I would point to a lot of luck in those games e.g. Napoli squandering dozens of chances against them, Fiorentina outplaying them etc. so I really can’t take Roma’s results seriously just yet. Osvaldo is absent, leaving Roma with weak Bojan as their target man. Totti will be there and he’s always a threat and Roma do have talented individuals but I just don’t see them being strong enough as a team or in terms of discipline to get a result here. For me, there’s value on the home win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Verdict: Catania to win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Real Mallorca vs Real Madrid – over 3.5 goals at 6/5.
Goals, goals, goals! Mallorca have been playing well in the past month or so, in my view. Their football has looked much more sleek and as a result they’ve only failed to score in one out of their last six Primera Liga games. They enter this game on the back of a 6-1 demolition job against Real Sociedad so confidence is high and every Spanish side knows that no trip to Mallorca can be taken lightly. I fully expect Mallorca to give Madrid a good game here.
However, I’ve never seen Madrid play as well as they are right now. Mourinho is finally well and truly in charge of this club and they play his way with his belief and as we’ve all seen before, that leads to titles. Madrid are scoring goals for fun and with Ronaldo, Benzema, and Higuain in their ranks, to name a few, it’s not hard to see why. They’re utterly explosive in front of goal and never stop playing and trying to score goals until the final whistle in typical Mourinho fashion. Ergo, I do expect Madrid to win this one.
Can they beat the handicap? Maybe. It’ll take a braver person than me to take the handicap option for the away side when Mallorca is the home side, though. I expect a tighter game than the odds suggest but I ultimately expect to see goals, whatever the outcome, so I fancy the long-ish odds on taking over 3.5 goals at 6/5.
Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Central Coast Mariners, Standard de Liege, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Olympiakos Piraeus, SL Benfica, Porto, Celtic.
Recommended bets:
Standard de Liege -1 AH, Manchester United, and Olympiakos Piraeus at around 7/5.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
International Friendlies:
Senegal vs Kenya (7) 2-0
Zambia vs Namibia (7) 2-0
Liberia vs Nigeria (5) 0-1
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets (8) 2-0
Brisbane Roar vs Sydney FC (7) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege vs Germinal Beerschot (8) 2-0
Sint-Truiden vs Kortrijk (4) 0-1
OH Leuven vs Lokeren (4) 0-1
Mechelen vs Mons (5) 1-1
Lierse SK vs AA Gent (7) over 2.5 goals
Cercle Brugge vs Westerlo (7) 2-1
Cypriot Division 1:
AEL Limassol vs Omonia Nicosia (6) 0-1
Anagennisi Deryneia vs Ethnikos Achnas (5) 1-2
Anorthosis Famagusta vs Enosis Neon Paralimni (7) 2-1
English Premier League:
Aston Villa vs Everton (7) 0-0
Blackburn Rovers vs Fulham (6) 1-2
Chelsea vs Sunderland (7) 2-1
Liverpool vs Stoke City (6) 2-1
Manchester United vs Bolton Wanderers (9) -1.5 handicap
Tottenham Hotspur vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (8) 2-0
West Bromwich Albion vs Norwich City (5) 2-2
English Championship:
Ipswich Town vs Blackpool (5)
Hull City vs Peterborough United (7) over 2.5 goals
Doncaster Rovers vs Cardiff City (5)
Millwall vs Birmingham City (6)
Leicester City vs Barnsley (7)
Middlesbrough vs Burnley (7)
Nottingham Forest vs Southampton (5)
Portsmouth vs West Ham United (6)
Derby County vs Coventry City (5)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Bristol City (6)
Crystal Palace vs Leeds United (5)
Watford vs Reading (6)
French Ligue 1:
AC Ajaccio vs Auxerre (6) 1-1
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Valenciennes (6) 1-0
Stade Brestois vs OGC Nice (5) 0-0
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Stade Rennais (5) 1-1
Dijon FCO vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (4) 1-2
Montpellier HSC vs Olympique Lyonnais (6) 1-1
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs Lorient (4) 1-0
Paris Saint-Germain vs Toulouse (7) 2-1
Saint-Etienne vs Sochaux (7) 2-1
Greek Super League:
AEK Athens vs Xanthi (7) 1-0
OFI Crete vs Doxa Dramas (7) 1-0
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos (9) -1.5 handicap
Italian Serie A:
Catania vs AS Roma (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Mexican Primera Division:
Jaguares vs Guadalajara (6) 0-1
Tigres UANL vs Queretaro (6) 1-0
Pachuca vs Puebla (7) 2-0
Tijuana vs Monterrey (4) 1-1
Atlas vs Cruz Azul (5) 1-1
Atlante vs Santos Laguna (6) 1-2
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Feirense vs Gil Vicente (5) 0-0
SL Benfica vs Vitoria Setubal (8) -1.5 handicap
Porto vs Rio Ave (8) 2-1
Scottish Premier League:
St.Johnstone vs Rangers (5) 0-1
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock (6) 1-0
Celtic vs Dundee United (8) over 2.5 goals
Dunfermline Athletic vs Hibernian (6) over 2.5 goals
Hearts vs St.Mirren (7) 2-1
Motherwell vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle (6) 1-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Zaragoza vs Getafe (6) 1-0
Granada vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (6) 1-0
Sevilla CF vs Espanyol (7) 2-0
Real Mallorca vs Real Madrid (7) over 2.5 goals
Valencia CF vs Real Sociedad (7) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Almeria vs Guadalajara (7)
Recreativo de Huelva vs Girona (4)
Real Murcia vs Cordoba (6)
Elche vs Alcoyano (7)
Real Valladolid vs Alcorcon (7) over 2.5 goals
Numancia vs Sabadell (7)
Las Palmas vs Barcelona II (6)
Villarreal II vs Cartagena (5) over 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Genclerbirligi vs Eskisehirspor (6) 1-0
Galatasaray vs Kayserispor (7) 2-1
Welsh Premier League:
Bala Town vs Afan Lido (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!