Scotland vs Netherlands
FreeIt’s been banded about a lot on forums lately but I’m going to stick with them for once – Netherlands should really beat Scotland. Odds of 6/5 are absolutely incredible on the away win, and I’ll tell you why.
Even the most stupid of football fans can appreciate that Netherlands are the better side here. In fact, I think it goes beyond that – even the most ardent of Scots appreciate the visitors are the better side here and that takes some doing, let me tell you!
Scotland were largely unconvincing at home to a decent Republic of Macedonia last match and frankly looked nervous throughout. To make things worse for them, they’re also missing what I’ll call their main “flair player” in James McFadden, who is suspended for this game for some inane reason that only a one official can explain. However, it leaves a very tenacious and workmanlike Scotland behind to face an extremely talented Netherlands. The biggest argument I’ve heard against the away win is that the game doesn’t mean anything to Netherlands. To those people: are you serious?! The entire Dutch footballing setup from top to bottom is motived and professional at all times. It’s how they’re raised, it’s the mentality of the Dutch people! They went to a tricky Iceland side knowing they were already through and managed to win there although not nearly as heavily as their performance would have justified. They’ve got fantastic attacking players, regardless of the absent Internazionale midfielder Wesley Sneijder. The hosts are an average side and they needthree points. That means they’re going to have to try and attack a very potent Netherlands that have a very quick counter-attack. Aside from the above, seven wins from seven games, two goals conceded in their entire campaign and an average of nearly three goals per game says Netherlands are going to win this game. Every way I look at this, every factor I see points to away win so I’ve no choice but to salute the generous odds of 6/5 on an away win!
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Scotland vs Netherlands – away win at 6/5 – see introduction for full details.
Azerbaijan U21 vs Belarus U21 – away win at 4/5. Although I don’t expect a high-scoring game, I do expect an away win for a Belarus U21 side with a good deal of potential. Azerbaijan barely boast a first team, let alone an under 21 side. It should be quite a tight game as most U21 games generally are but I think there’s value in 4/5 on the away win simply because they’re the better side and they’re good enough to get it! What else can I say?
Paraguay vs Argentina – home win at draw no bet odds of 5/4. Risky call but Argentina just aren’t convincing me at the moment. Lots of people have jumped on the “Diego Maradona is shit” wagon, which I feel’s a bit unfair, really. Whereas I’m hardly the biggest advocate of the talented cheating cunt ex-footballer, I do think that losing a home game with Brazil isn’t quite the end of the world. In fact, countries like Andorra and San Marino would probably give their managers a raise if that occurred. Argentina still have very good players but the problem I see with them these days is that they’re all in the same positions; strikers and central midfielders. Their width looks virtually non-existent at times and their defence has never been a strong point – it’s even weaker now. Paraguay are hardly firing on all cylinders themselves but they’re a bloody hard side to play wherever you play them. Their biggest problem is scoring goals but they’ll have a good deal of opportunity given that Argentina have to attack them in this game as they need three points. South America is no place for an away win and I expect it to show today as Paraguay are far better at digging deep, defending and being generally more efficient. Frankly, 6/5 on a home win with draw no bet looks a pretty good shout in my book!
Bolivia vs Ecuador – home win at 6/4. I can’t fully grasp these odds. Fair enough, Bolivia aren’t great. Ecuador are definitely better than they are, no questions. Let’s get one thing straight here though – Ecuador have only won once on the road in this campaign but have lost four times. They concede far too many goals away from home and the hosts do enjoying scoring them too, most notably was a 6-1 drubbing of Argentina in the not-too-distant past! The height of Bolivia tends to be a big issue for most sides for obvious reasons but that’s not going to feature as much as Ecuador have just been to a pretty damn high Colombia last match as well as boasting a very high home ground themselves! I don’t rate Bolivia as a particularly good side, as most of you will know, but I do respect them, particularly at home. 6/4 on a home win for a side that has scored more home goals than Brazil in this campaign as they host the third biggest conceding side on the road in this campaign suddenly looks pretty damn good, doesn’t it?
Spain vs Estonia – home win with -3.75 handicap at 5/4. Don’t be mistaken here – Estonia’s two goals in Turkey were gifts by Turkey. They’re still a poor side although they’re better when playing in Tallinn these days. That said, they’re travelling to a rampant Spain side that have just battered Belgium 5-0, and Belgium are a good deal better than Estonia. A misfiring Turkey was able to put four goals past Estonia; that tells me a rampant Spain side can double it. Whereas I don’t expect 8-0 as a scoreline, I do think Spain will beat the -3.75 handicap with some ease.
Serbia vs France – home win with draw no bet odds of evens. We all know how bad France are getting. We all know the pressure facing Domenech. We all know of the unrest within the France camp. No matter who it is, in my world you then go against that side given the massive issues they obviously have. This is furthered when they’re travelling to a resilient and ruthlessly efficient Serbia side that boast their best team in some years. A home win at evens with draw no bet looks a good bet indeed, as does laying France in an accumulator.
Italy vs Bulgaria – under 2.5 goals at 4/5. Despite Bulgaria’s 4-1 victory over Montenegro last match, don’t be fooled; they’ve got massive issues within the camp with their manager and with their footballing style. They find it hard to break sides down atypically as has been displayed in many of their games of late, obviously excepting their win against Montenegro. Italy are a side that seem to be getting worse as time goes by. They find it hard to break down sides themselves nowadays and have only beaten 2.5 goals twice in their last seven qualifying games. The hosts will be happy with a 1-0 win if they get it but they don’t need it per se. Bulgaria are the side that need the points and I can’t see them scoring so taking under 2.5 goals at 4/5 seems relatively straightforward to me.
Hungary vs Portugal – home win with double chance at 7/5. Hungary let me down last game against Sweden although that was largely due to their attacking at the very end of the game and being caught on the counter-attack. Nonetheless, Sweden are a good deal more organised and have more options than Portugal when it comes to facing difficult sides like Hungary i.e. they actually have a natural striker. Hungary know that Portugal have to win here to have any chance of qualification and will look to counter them. It’s a bold move as the hosts do need the points themselves but it’s the best way to overcome a relatively toothless Portugal side. The only thing that bothers me is if Liedson starts because he suddenly resolves Portugal’s striker problem in a big, big way. Aside from that, however, a home win with draw no bet odds of 7/5 looks tempting.
Northern Ireland vs Slovakia – away win with draw no bet odds of evens. Northern Ireland are a very resilient side at the best of times but particularly when they’re at home. They don’t have a lot of class or experience but they manage to consistently make life hard for their opponents. They proved that last match in Poland by claiming a draw and they’ve beaten big names like Spain and England here in the past. However, Slovakia are advanced tremendously over the past few years and look very good at the moment. What I admire most about them is their extremely potent attack as they score nearly three goals a game on average and have scored in each of their last thirteen qualifying games in all competitions. Northern Ireland need the points more than the visitors today, however, and I think that’ll play right into the hands of a pacey Slovak attack on the counter. I think we’ll see quite an open game here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see quite a lot of goals. That said, I can’t see a home win so I’m taking the away win with draw no bet odds of evens.
Latvia vs Switzerland – away win at evens. Despite a bizarre win at Israel last match, Latvia are little more than a tenacious side who know how to make sides work for wins. Gone are their days of Verpakovskis and Pahars when they were in their primes respectively. That said, the win in Israel will have done much for their morale as this now gives them a very real opportunity of reaching the World Cup Finals, something I don’t think they’ve ever achieved. They need a win here, however, but Switzerland are no fools in this situation. When they’re mega favourites to win a game, Switzerland are one of those sides that you can generally rely upon to let you down. When the odds are against them, they almost always turn up. I can’t explain why that is – it just is, unfortuantely! They’re a decent side with a decent manager and they’ve won five games in a row now, beating group favourites Greece 2-0 at home last match. This will will have boosted Swiss confidence ahead of this fixture too as they know that a win here all but guarantees a place at the World Cup for them. I’m surprised the bookies have given evens on the away win here considering the class difference but can accept it given the occasional Swiss shock i.e. somehow losing at home to Luxembourg at the start of the campaign. Those days appear to be behind them currently, however, so the away win at evens looks good in my eyes!
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
World Cup Qualifiers – European section:
Czech Republic vs San Marino (10) -3.75 handicap
Armenia vs Belgium (7) over 2.5 goals
Faroe Islands vs Lithuania (7) 0-1
Malta vs Sweden (9) 0-2
Belarus vs Ukraine (5) 1-1
Liechtenstein vs Finland (8) 0-2
Romania vs Austria (6) under 2.5 goals
Israel vs Luxembourg (7) 2-0
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Turkey (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Andorra vs Kazakhstan (9) 0-2
Montenegro vs Cyprus (6) over 2.5 goals
Albania vs Denmark (6) 1-2
Latvia vs Switzerland (7) 0-1
Moldova vs Greece (6) 0-1
Norway vs Republic of Macedonia (7) 2-1
Scotland vs Netherlands (8) 0-2
Hungary vs Portugal (5) 1-1
Northern Ireland vs Slovakia (6) 1-2
Slovenia vs Poland (6) 1-1
Wales vs Russia (7) 0-2
Germany vs Azerbaijan (10) -1.75 handicap
Italy vs Bulgaria (7) under 2.5 goals
England vs Croatia (7) 2-0
Serbia vs France (6) 1-0, draw no bet
Spain vs Estonia (10) -2.75 handicap
World Cup Qualifiers – South American section:
Bolivia vs Ecuador (6) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Uruguay vs Colombia (8) 2-0
Paraguay vs Argentina (6) 1-0, draw no bet
Brazil vs Chile (7) both sides to score
Venezuela vs Peru (8) 2-1
World Cup Qualifiers – North American section:
Trinidad & Tobago vs USA (7) 1-2
Mexico vs Honduras (8) both sides to score
El Salvador vs Costa Rica (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
World Cup Qualifiers – African section:
Cameroon vs Gabon (8) over 2.5 goals
World Cup Qualifiers – Asian section:
Saudi Arabia vs Bahrain (8) 2-0
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Kazakhstan U21 vs Israel U21 (6) 1-2
Faroe Islands U21 vs Latvia U21 (6) 0-0
Georgia U21 vs Turkey U21 (8) 1-2
Republic of Macedonia U21 vs Lithuania U21 (7) 2-1
Estonia U21 vs Republic of Ireland U21 (6) 1-1
Azerbaijan U21 vs Belarus U21 (7) 0-1
Slovakia U21 vs Cyprus U21 (8) 2-0
Norway U21 vs Serbia U21 (5) 1-1
Austria U21 vs Albania U21 (9) -1.75 handicap
Sweden U21 vs Bulgaria U21 (8) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Ykkonen:
TPV Tampere vs Atlantis FC Helsinki (6)
International Friendlies:
Angola vs Ivory Coast (8) over 2.5 goals
China vs Senegal (6) 0-1, draw no bet
Iceland vs Georgia (7) 2-1
Qatar vs Oman (6) 1-1
Japan vs Ghana (7) 1-1
Jordan vs New Zealand (6) 0-0
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