Sevilla CF vs Real Madrid
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Spanish Primera Liga encounter in Andaluscia between Sevilla CF and Real Madrid. The hosts are still battling for a UEFA Europa League place to desperately salvage something from a dire season whereas the visitors are still clinging onto faint hopes of catching Barcelona at the top so we should see an entertaining game here.
To be fair – when do we see a boring game between these two giants? Not often!
Sevilla have played well lately but there’s still something missing that Manzano just doesn’t give his team and it’s in games like this where it should be particularly visible. I mean, they’ve won four out of their last six games so momentum is on their side currently but still – the somewhat defensive way in which Sevilla play nowadays doesn’t become them and I think that’ll come back to haunt them at somepoint. Relying on world-class players is sometimes part of any team’s game but Sevilla have had to do that an awful lot with Navas under Manzano – well, whilst he’s been fit, at least! – and with Capel when it comes to producing something. Without those two, they’ve really struggled. Croatian attacking midfielder Rakitic was an inspired signing in January and he’s helped share the load carried by Sevilla’s wide men so you could be forgiven for giving Sevilla a chance here as they’re not as predictable with Rakitic in there. However, both Navas and Rakitic miss this game tonight, as does Uruguayan defender Caceres, so to say that I don’t have much faith in Sevilla here is an understatement. Outside of the bottom three, only Malaga, Real Zaragoza, and Valencia CF have conceded more goals at home than Sevilla this season so I think they’re really going to struggle tonight against a superior Real Madrid team.
The question here is whether Madrid will pick themselves up from their UEFA Champions League exit lately. Personally, I think that they will – there aren’t many better motivators than Portuguese legend Jose Mourinho and with one of the world’s best players in their attack – Ronaldo – you have to give them a chance against anyone. The two looney “defenders” Pepe and Ramos return for this game following suspension mid-week and their places on the sidelines are taken by Carvalho and di Maria, who are suspended. Aside from that, and the injury to Khedira, Madrid are at full-strength and should demonstrate that with a convincing result here. True enough, Madrid have gone out of the Champions League and it’s going to have pissed off a lot of Madrid fans, as well as their eccentric chairman. However, imagine how pissed off they’ll be if they hand the title to Barcelona on a plate without a fight? I don’t think that would be allowed, not with Mourinho in charge. No, I expect a strong Madrid display here at a somewhat defensive Sevilla side and they’ve absolutely got the firepower to win this game. They can concede wtihout Carvalho to organise their defence but they should be able to outscore their hosts here.
These type of games are never straightforward, unfortunately. I daresay that’s why the odds are as tempting as they are! However, I’ve got a lot of faith in Mourinho’s man-management skills and the firepower of Madrid and additionally, I’ve got a lot of faith in Sevilla’s ability to not turn up when Navas is out. Therefore, the away win at 5/4 appeals to me here.
Team news – Sevilla CF miss Rakitic, Caceres, and Navas whilst having doubts over Pedretti whereas Real Madrid miss Carvalho, di Maria, Adan, Pedro Leon, Gago, and Khedira.
Verdict: Real Madrid to win at 5/4.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Universidad Catolica vs Union Espanola – home win at 4/5.
I can’t help backing Catolica whenever they play now, to be honest. Pizzi is rapidly becoming God for the Chilean league leaders and with eleven wins from fourteen Primera Division games in the Apertura thus far, you can see why they regard him so highly. Additionally, they stand a good chance of being a black horse for the Copa Libertadores following the surprise exit of so many big names mid-week, especially as Catolica themselves were responsible for one of the “giant killings” as they beat Gremio both in Brazil and in Chile, winning 3-1 on aggregate. Simply put, this side is on fire right now and with six wins from seven home games domestically whilst averaging scoring over two goals per home game, I can’t help but side with them tonight against Union Espanola. The visitors are a decent outfit who are having yet another good campaign as a result of keeping most of their players after a productive campaign last year but they’re still not in the same league as the “big three” of Chilean football and that gap should be visible tonight against their superior hosts. For me, the home win is decent value at 4/5.
Verdict: Universidad Catolica to win at 4/5.
Viktoria Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav – away win with +1.5 handicap at 3/4.
These odds look far too generous to me. Mlada Boleslav generally don’t travel too well but that’s through not scoring rather than conceding too many. They’re a good side, however, and the bookies seem to be overlooking that here. Plzen have a terrific record at home this season but they’ve really bottled it lately when the heat has been on them, letting a two-goal lead slip at home to draw 2-2 with Slavia Prague and drawing 1-1 at lowly Brno last match and you can tell they’re feeling the heat now. Plzen have some excellent players but do they have the experience to ride this one out with Sparta Prague close behind? I don’t think they do. Mlada Boleslav won here a couple of weeks ago in the Pohar CMFS and although I’d be surprised to see them win again today, I do think there’s a good chance that they’ll keep the scoreline tight even if they do lose. For me, there’s value in giving Boleslav a +1.5 goal head start today against a very under-pressure and buckling Viktoria Plzen side.
Verdict: Mlada Boleslav to win with a +1.5 goal handicap at 3/4.
Tom’ Tomsk vs Krylya Sovetov Samara – home win at 27/25.
Ever since I went against Tom’ Tomsk with CSKA Moscow, they’ve looked pretty good, to be honest. I don’t know how as they’re somewhat desolate in attack but they’re producing good displays and are getting results because of it. They drew 1-1 with CSKA Moscow in the end in a game that I personally felt that they should have won, which says a lot as I’d actually bet on CSKA to win that game! Tom’ Tomsk worked hard and the players were as a unit and you can tell that display meant a lot to them as they followed it up with an impressive and unexpected win at Amkar’ Perm last match. They’ve actually now gone four games unbeaten following a draw at home to Anzhi Makhachkala to start the run off and a win the following week at a poor Spartak Nal’chik side so momentum is definitely with the hosts today. I don’t rate them as a force in general and I do think they’ll struggle to stay in the division this year but there are some games that they can win if they play well and for me, this is definitely one of them.
Speaking of squads that are going to struggle to stay in the division this year – cue the entrance of Krylya Sovetov Samara, who haven’t had a decent striker since Jan Koller! This side has little attributes that I can respect them for and is generally bereft of talent in most areas of the pitch. Slovenian attacker Pecnik and ex-Spartak Moscow attacker Savin are their better players, in my view, but they’re just not a threat overall. They’ve scored one goal in three away games this season, losing twice along the way, Although they can generally defend fairly stoutly, I find it hard to consider this team a threat, even in games like this.
For me, there’s value on the hosts winning this game at 27/25. If the odds drop then I’d leave it as they lack the firepower to be worthy of shorter odds but I still think Tom’ Tomsk have enough to win this one today.
Verdict: Tom’ Tomsk to win at 27/25.
Kuban’ Krasnodar vs Terek Grozny – home win at 9/10.
It is just me who thinks that Ruud Gullit is a crap manager? From what I’ve seen of him on the TV, he seems like an affable fella and so on but when it comes to managing, he’s just crap! He’s destroying Terek Grozny having only just got there and I can’t see him lasting much longer, in all honesty. They’ve scored in just two out of their seven games played this season, which simply isn’t enough. They’ve got some good players but even so – they’re not dangerous enough to be feared and in arising league like the Russian Premier League, they’re in real trouble if they’re not scoring goals. That’s something I expect to see today as newly-promoted hosts Kuban’ Krasnodar are scoring goals. Dan Petrescu knows what he’s doing and although Kuban’ aren’t as good as Terek on paper, they’ve got one of the most cohesive squads in the Russian Premier League, in my view, and that counts for an awful lot. This side is more than capable of beating impotent Tereky today and at odds of 9/10, I’m interested, especially with four wins from their last six games.
Verdict: Kuban’ Krasnodar to win at 9/10.
Rostov-na-Donu vs Spartak Nalchik – home win at evens.
I can’t really elaborate on this one more than to say that Rostov are a better team than Nal’chik, who have looked as vulnerable as expected having lost their leader and manager Krasnozhan pre-season. Nal’chik look destined for relegation this season as their quality level is poor and they aren’t scoring goals. Rostov, on the other hand, look to be trying to sneak a UEFA Europa League place judging by the number of players they signed pre-season. They’ve get to all gel fully, hence some contradictory results thus far, but they’re still a good side and should win this one fairly easily. Attacking midfielder Ivanov is absent today but there’s still more than enough firepower in Rostov’s team to make it count against their inferior opponents at decent odds today.
Team news – Rostov-na-Donu miss Ivanov, Lejsal, and Malyaka whereas Spartak Nalchik miss Golichev.
Verdict: Rostov-na-Donu to win at evens.
Karpaty Lviv vs Dynamo Kiev – lay Dinamo Kiev at evens.
How on earth are Kiev 7/10 to win this game? I rate Kiev a lot, especially under Semin, but they’ve not convinced away from home since returning from the winter break. They’ve won at a crap Metalurg Donetsk side and at local rivals Arsenal Kiev but in between those two games, they’ve lost at Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk and drawn with bottom club Metalurg Zaporizhya. Kiev flattened Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 last match so morale will be high, admittedly, but Lviv is such a tough place for an away game, hence Karpaty losing just once at home this season – against Metalist Kharkiv. The only two sides with a better defensive record at home than Karpaty are the top two – Dyanmo and Shakthar – so you can see how strong Karpaty are becoming, something that was especially visible in the UEFA Europa League campaign. This side is not afraid to attack and score goals but importantly, they know how to defend leads too – well, at home at least. Kiev are obviously the superior side but I don’t believe the quality difference between the two sides is reflected fairly in the odds today. Therefore, I see value in laying Kiev at evens.
Team news – Dynamo Kiev miss Bogush and Mykhalyk.
Verdict: Lay Dynamo Kiev at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
BATE Borisov, Lokomotiv Plovdiv, CSKA Sofia, Maag Tammeka Tartu, Nomme Kalju, Flora Tallinn, Levadia Tallinn, Bayern Munich, Palermo, Atalanta Bergamo, Rangers, Atletico Madrid, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid, Cartagena, Lausanne Sports, Shakhtar Donetsk.
Recommended bets:
Real Madrid, Shakhtar Donetsk, and Nomme Kalju at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Quilmes vs Gimnasia De La Plata (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Atletico Huracan vs Olimpo (6) 1-1
Tigre vs Colon de Santa Fe (6) 0-1
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Racing Club Avellaneda (6) 1-0
Austrian Bundesliga:
Austria Vienna vs LASK Linz (5) 2-1
SV Kapfenberg vs Rapid Vienna (5) 1-1
Salzburg vs Wiener Neustadt (6) 2-1
SV Mattersburg vs Wacker Innsbruck (6) 1-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk (6) 0-0
Dinamo Minsk vs Dinamo Brest (4) 1-1
Neman Grodno vs FC Minsk (6) 1-0
Gomel vs Belshina Bobriusk (6) 2-1
Dnepr Mogilev vs Torpedo Zhodino (7) 1-1
BATE Borisov vs Vitebsk (8) 2-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AA Gent vs Lokeren (5) 1-1
Standard de Liege vs Club Brugge (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Mechelen vs Lierse SK (6) 1-1
Cercle Brugge vs Sint-Truiden (6) 1-0
Westerlo vs Zulte-Waregem (5) 1-1
Germinal Beerschot vs Kortrijk (5) 1-0
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (8) 2-1
CSKA Sofia vs Minior Pernik (8) 2-0
Chilean Primera Division:
Huachipato vs Universidad de Chile (6) 1-1
Santiago Wanderers vs Cobreloa (5) 2-1
Universidad Catolica vs Union Espanola (7) 2-0
Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera (7) 1-0
Colombian Primera A:
Itagui Ditaires vs Cucuta Deportivo (7) 1-1
Real Cartagena vs Envigado (6) 2-1
Deportivo Cali vs America de Cali (4) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (6) 2-1
Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (6) 1-0
Croatian Prva Liga:
Slaven Koprivnica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb (7) 2-0
Karlovac vs Istra 1961 (4) 1-1
Rijeka vs Sibenik (5) 0-0
Split vs Zadar (7) 1-0
Cibalia Vinkovci vs NK Zagreb (7) 2-1
Cypriot Division 1:
APOEL Nicosia vs AEK Larnaca (6) 2-1
Apollon Limassol vs AEL Limassol (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Ethnikos Achnas vs A.E.Paphos (3) 0-1
Alki vs Ermis (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Viktoria Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav (5) 2-1
Slovacko vs Brno (4) 1-1
Danish 1st Division:
AB Copenhagen vs Naestved (6) over 2.5 goals
English Premier League:
Aston Villa vs Wigan Athletic (6) 1-0
Bolton Wanderers vs Sunderland (7) 2-0
Everton vs Manchester City (6) 1-0
Newcastle United vs Birmingham City (4) 1-1
West Ham United vs Blackburn Rovers (6) 2-1
Tottenham Hotspur vs Blackpool (8) over 2.5 goals
English Championship:
Norwich City vs Coventry City (7) over 2.5 goals
Reading vs Derby County (7)
Leicester City vs Ipswich Town (6) over 2.5 goals
Queens Park Rangers vs Leeds United (5) over 2.5 goals
Burnley vs Cardiff City (4)
Barnsley vs Millwall (6)
Bristol City vs Hull City (6)
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest (5)
Scunthorpe United vs Portsmouth (5)
Swansea City vs Sheffield United (7)
Preston North End vs Watford (4)
Middlesbrough vs Doncaster Rovers (6)
English League One:
Colchester United vs Bristol Rovers (4)
Charlton Athletic vs Hartlepool United (6)
Tranmere Rovers vs Swindon Town (7)
Oldham Athletic vs Milton Keynes Dons (5)
Huddersfield Town vs Brentford (7)
Carlisle United vs Yeovil Town (4)
Notts County vs Brighton & Hove Albion (4)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Exeter City (5) over 2.5 goals
Plymouth Argyle vs Leyton Orient (6)
Bournemouth vs Rochdale (6)
Peterborough United vs Dagenham & Redbridge (6) over 2.5 goals
Southampton vs Walsall (7) over 2.5 goals
English League Two:
Bradford City vs Crewe Alexandra (5)
Chesterfield vs Gillingham (4)
Shrewsbury Town vs Oxford United (7)
Barnet vs Port Vale (6)
Steveange vs Bury (5)
Burton Albion vs Accrington Stanley (6)
Stockport County vs Cheltenham Town (4)
Wycombe Wanderers vs Southend United (7)
Rotherham United vs Torquay United (5)
Macclesfield Town vs Hereford United (5)
Lincoln City vs Aldershot Town (4)
Morecambe vs Northampton Town (5)
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Ajax Lasnamae (8) 2-0
Nomme Kalju vs Flora Paide (9) -1.5 handicap
Trans Narva vs Sillamae Kalev (7) 1-0
Viljandi vs Flora Tallinn (8) 0-2
Levadia Tallinn vs Kuressaare (8) 2-0
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
Vikingur Gotu vs B68 Toftir (7) 1-0
Finnish Ykkonen:
OPS Oulu vs FC Espoo (7)
PoPa Pori vs Hameenlinna (7)
PS Kemi Kings vs Jippo Joensuu (6)
French Ligue 1:
Arles vs Saint-Etienne (6) 0-1
Auxerre vs Montpellier HSC (6) 1-0
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Sochaux (6) 2-1
Stade Brestois vs OGC Nice (5) 1-0
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Racing Club Lens (4) 0-1
Lorient vs Toulouse (7) 1-0
AS Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs LOSC Lille (6) 0-1
German Bundesliga:
St.Pauli vs Bayern Munich (8) over 2.5 goals
Werder Bremen vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund (5) 1-1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV (7) 2-0
Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 (6) 2-1
Nurnberg vs Hoffenheim (7) 2-0
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Koln (5) 1-0
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs SC Freiburg (6) over 2.5 goals
VfB Stuttgart vs Hannover 96 (6) 1-1
VfL Wolfsburg vs Kaiserslautern (7) 2-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Szolnoki MAV vs Ferencvaros (6) 1-1
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Debreceni VSC (6) 2-1
Szombathelyi Haladas vs Vasas Budapest (5) 2-1
Lombard Papa vs Siofok (5) 1-1
Paksi SE vs Ujpest (7) 1-0
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs Valur Reykjavik (5) 2-2
Fram Reykjavik vs Thor Akureyri (7) 2-0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Fylkir Reykjavik (7) 2-1
Italian Serie A:
Palermo vs Bari (8) 2-0
AS Roma vs AC Milan (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Italian Serie B:
Empoli vs Albinoleffe (6)
Padova vs Ascoli (7)
Triestina vs Cittadella (5)
Modena vs Grosseto (6)
Crotone vs Novara (5)
Atalanta Bergamo vs Portosummaga (8)
Piacenza vs Sassuolo (5)
Siena vs Torino (6)
Frosinone vs Vicenza (5)
Japanese J-League:
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Ventforet Kofu (7) 2-1
Vissel Kobe vs Kawasaki Frontale (5) 0-0
Jubilo Iwata vs Montedio Yamagata (6) 1-1
Yokohama F.Marinos vs Avispa Fukuoka (7) 2-0
Omiya Ardija vs Albirex Niigata (5) 1-0
Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-Pulse (6) 1-0
Kashiwa Reysol vs Urawa Red Diamonds (6) 1-0
Cerezo Osaka vs Vegalta Sendai (5) 1-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara (5) 2-1
Atlante vs Cruz Azul (6) 1-1
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Valerenga Oslo vs Brann Bergen (7) 2-0
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Sol de America vs Nacional Asuncion (5) 1-2
Tacuary vs 3 de Febrero (7) 1-0
Peruvian Primera Division:
Leon de Huanuco vs Sport Boys (6) 1-0
Sport Huancayo vs Melgar FBC (7) 1-0
Universidad Cesar Vallejo vs Inti Gas (7) 2-0
Juan Aurich vs Sporting Cristal (7) 2-1
Polish Ekstraklasa;
Cracovia Krakow vs Polonia Warsaw (7) 0-1
Slask Wroclaw vs Polonia Bytom (7) 2-1
Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze (6) 1-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Widzew Lodz (7) 1-0
Polish Liga 1:
Pogon Szczecin vs Kluczbork (7)
Odra Wodzislaw vs Nieciecza (4)
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Ruch Radzionkow (6)
Katowice vs Gornik Polkowice (7)
Romanian Liga:
Rapid Bucharest vs Targu Mures (5) 1-0
Russian Premier League:
Tom’ Tomsk vs Krylya Sovetov Samara (7) 1-0
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Anzhi Makhachkala (6) 1-1
Kuban’ Krasnodar vs Terek Grozny (7) 1-0
Rostov-na-Donu vs Spartak Nalchik (7) 2-1
Scottish Premier League:
Rangers vs Hearts (8) 2-1
Aberdeen vs St.Johnstone (7) 1-0
Dundee United vs Motherwell (6) 2-1
Hamilton Academicals vs Hibernian (5) 1-1
Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs St.Mirren (7) 2-0
Serbian Super Liga:
OFK Belgrade vs Red Star Belgrade (7) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Borac Cacak vs Vojvodina Novi Sad (6) 0-1
Sevojno vs Javor Ivanjica (7) 1-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Rudar Velenje vs Primorje (7) 2-1
Nafta Lendava vs Maribor (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje (7) 2-1
Gorica vs Koper (6) 0-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Getafe vs Almeria (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Valencia CF vs Real Sociedad (7) 2-1
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Levante (7) 2-0
Sporting Gijon vs Deportivo La Coruna (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Hercules Alicante vs Racing Santander (6) 0-1
Atletico Madrid vs Malaga (8) over 2.5 goals
Sevilla CF vs Real Madrid (6) 1-2
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Celta de Vigo vs Girona (6)
Huesca vs Villarreal II (6)
Tenerife vs Recreativo de Huelva (6) under 2.5 goals
Numancia vs Real Valladolid (5) at least one red card in this game
Barcelona II vs Albacete (7)
Cartagena vs Ponferradina (8)
Deportivo Xerez vs Las Palmas (6)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Salamanca (8) over 2.5 goals
Swedish Allsvenskan:
BK Hacken Goteborg vs AIK Solna (6) 1-1
Djurgarden vs Halmstad (6) 0-0
Swedish Superettan:
Brage vs GIF Sundsvall (6)
Atvidaberg vs Angelholm (6)
Swiss Super League:
Grasshopper Zurich vs Neuchatel Xamax (6) 2-1
Luzern vs Young Boys Bern (5) 2-2
Thun vs Sion (7) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Vaduz vs Biel-Bienne (7)
Aarau vs Lugano (7)
Wil vs Stade Nyonnais (6) both sides to score
Lausanne Sports vs FC Schaffhausen (8)
Locarno vs Winterthur (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Istanbul BB vs Antalyaspor (6) 1-0
Bursaspor vs Besiktas JK (6) 1-1
Gaziantepspor vs Manisaspor (6) 2-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Zorya Lugansk vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk (5) 1-2
Karpaty Lviv vs Dynamo Kiev (6) 1-1
Arsenal Kiev vs Vorksla Poltava (6) 2-1
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Metalurg Donetsk (8) -1.5 handicap
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Central Espanol vs Defensor Sporting (5) 2-2
El Tanque Sisley vs River Plate Montevideo (5) 1-1
Racing Club Montevideo vs Danubio (6) 1-0
Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerro (5) 2-1
Tacuarembo vs Rampla Juniors (5) 1-1
Fenix vs Liverpool Montevideo (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!