South Africa vs Mexico
FreeAt long last the World Cup is here! The biggest footballing event in the world that unites lots of countries and attracts billions of viewers across the globe and I think it’s fair to say that we’ve all been eagerly awaiting this one so let’s make it a profitable one!
Today’s featured game is the opening game of the tournament between hosts South Africa and Mexico. The game will be played in South Africa’s capital Johannesburg and the stadium itself is some 1700 metres above sea level, which naturally (and in in complete neutrality!) favours the hosts as Mexico rarely have to play games at such altitude. I expect plenty of noise for this one too as its the opening game and those bloody vuvuzelas (the things that sound like ten wasps circling a megaphone) never cease so prepare to be irritated as hell if you watch this one as I will be!
Let’s have a look at the hosts first of all though. As you’ve probably seen from my preview of the World Cup yesterday, I don’t hold the hosts in very high regards. They’re tenacious, they’re the hosts, and their support will be tremendous but in footballing ability terms, they’re one of the poorest sides in the competition. They’re not bad defensively and they never give sides an easy game but they’re disappointing in front of goal with their only real threat tending to be Mphela. Boss Carlos Alberto Parreira has already boldly stated that South Africa’s line-up will be the same that faced Guatemala and Denmark in their recent friendlies. South Africa’s record of late is flattering but in a good way. They know they’re not good enough to overcome the good sides so they’ve chosen to face sides in recent times that don’t score goals away from home i.e. Denmark, Colombia, and Guatemala. South Africa meandered their way past their more difficult opponents – Denmark and Colombia respectively – whilst destroying an inferior Guatemala side in impressive fashion, running out 5-0 victors. The idea was a good one as it does raise morale and it boosts the fans’ hopes so I respect their decision there. As a result, I expect South Africa to give Mexico a real battle today and I expect them to score one way or another due to the positive factors supporting their cause. However, I don’t think they’ll end up with anything from this one because there’s a rather large factor that doesn’t favour them at all; ability.
Mexico are the superior of these two sides, no questions asked. I’ve seen a lot of people around the Internet (and in the media) suggesting not to underestimate South Africa and indeed I’d only echo those sentiments as they’re hosts and have nothing to lose. However, I’d hasten to point that underestimating a side that has prepared for this World Cup for longer than any other side in it would also be foolish. Mexico have played more friendlies in preparation for this World Cup than any other nation has and as a result they’re arguably the most in-shape side. Mexico have looked their typical selves in the friendlies too, scoring and conceding lots of goals. We all know Mexico don’t enjoy defending because they’re not particularly good at it, particularly from set pieces, but we all know how good they are in front of goal too. They’ve scored nine times and conceded seven times in their last four games along so I expect goals in this game for sure, particularly as Mexico have beaten Italy and given Netherlands and England a good run for their money during that run. They’ve travelled all over Europe to play those games to get to grips with some of the better sides that they’ll be facing and to experience different tactics and conditions and I personally think that they’ve not only picked up a lot but they’ve also looked good along the way. The fuss about Javier Aguirre dropping the younger Dos Santos brother from the Mexico squad appears to have finally quietened down (about time too!) so Mexico can focus on this prestigious tournament. Mexico are boosted by the return of talismanic defender Rafael Marquez from injury as well as experienced Guille Franco in attack so Aguirre has a difficult but pleasant selection headache ahead of this game, which he shrewdly has not disclosed any information about currently. However, one thing is for sure and that is that Mexico’s impressive trio of Dos Santos, Hernandez, and Vela will all almost certainly feature at somepoint during this game due to their infectious love of the game, their enthusiasm, their overall energy, and naturally their excellent level of ability. All three of those youngsters have the capability to beat men, play the ball, finish in deadly fashion, and move well off-the-ball, which makes them a very dangerous trio indeed. I have to feel that Aguirre will field them as well as South Africa are quite assured in defence as far as height goes whereas pace could be the factor that unlocks the defence so I’d be surprised if Aguirre didn’t select that option today.
One thing for sure is that we really should see a good game here. Neither side is particularly good at defending so I’m confident both sides will score here despite South Africa’s inability to create from open play. I expect quite a few cards to be flying around as South Africa are under pressure to perform and the Mexicans are generally just psychos in that aspect anyway – they spent the majority of their friendlies last year trying to see how many men they could get dismissed! However, the potent and excellent football side here is Mexico; no questions asked. They’ve scored goals consistently against bigger and better sides than South Africa of late so I expect them to do so again today as they’re capable of – so long as the pressure doesn’t get to them. South Africa won’t go down without a fight, hence my point that this should be a good game, and I certainly wouldn’t endorse handicapping the visitors because of the above reasons. However, I’ve no option but to favour a Mexico win at generous odds of 6/4 despite the strong record of host nations over the years – they should have too much for even a resolute South Africa side to deal with today, frankly.
Incidentally, as food for thought – South Africa have been awarded at least five penalties over their last three games on South African soil. Either Parreira has taught them how to dive or the referees are favouring them. Either way, odds of 5/2 for a penalty to be awarded in what should be a feisty game today looks bargain odds to me.
Verdict: Mexico to win at 6/4, both sides to score at evens, A penalty to be awarded at 5/2.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
France vs Uruguay – Uruguay to win with draw no bet at 6/4.
The second of the day’s World Cup games is being played in Cape Town between once-winners France and twice-winners Uruguay.
France have got big problems already in this campaign and you have to wonder why they do it to themselves. They’ve already announced that Domenech will be replaced by Blanc after the World Cup – what kind of message does that send?! Malouda has said there are problems within the camp and we already know that the morale of the French is fragile as it is! They’ve heaped pressure upon striker Nicolas Anelka as he’s the only gifted striker they have in their squad after bizarrely ousting Karim Benzema and they’ve looked incredibly nervous and ineffectual during their friendly games of late, narrowly overcoming Costa Rica, drawing with Tunisia in North Africa, and shockingly losing at home to China in their last game before the World Cup. It’s far from ideal preparation for this tournament, really, and these are just some of the reasons that I think France will go missing this year. Domenech at least hasn’t named his starting eleven so that at least gives France some power here, particularly as Uruguay already have, but France have notched up just two goals in their last three games against inferior opponents so you have to fear for them against a good Uruguay side tonight when it comes to scoring goals unless Franck Ribery can bail them out as usual. France can add some tenacity to midfield with the return of Olympique Lyonnais’ Jeremy Toulalan and they’re certainly going to need him to take anything from this very difficult game.
Uruguay are a good side but we need to be careful with how they adapt away from home. Generally, they’re a tough nut to crack on the road as they proved in the nightmarish South American World Cup Qualifiers but they don’t score enough on the road, generally speaking, so do be careful with this one. Nonetheless, Uruguay’s arrogant lack of prepartion for this World Cup via friendlies has at least allowed them to enter the competition on a positive note as they annihlated Israel 4-1 at home before setting off to South Africa. Tabarez has stupidly revealed his line-up for the game, something which doesn’t sit well with me, although I’m pleased to see that Uruguay legend Diego Forlan partners one of Europe’s hottest prospects in Luis Suarez in attack, which is arguably the deadliest attack in the whole group so France will have problems in defence tonight. Uruguay have a decent defence but they’ll need to be alert against a deadly Anelka although to be honest it’d be worth one of them clattering him because without him, France are not going to score barring some brilliance from Ribery. I’m surprised Uruguay have dropped ball-winner Gargano for this one as France can be tamed in the middle quite easily with the likes of him patrolling the centre circle. Nonetheless, I’m banking on Uruguay scoring more than France rather than assisting France in their demise via not scoring goals and at the very least I see them equalling the French so this bet should be a good one today.
I wanted to lay France for this one but the bookies have cleverly left the odds at 8/11 for that outcome despite pricing Uruguay at 11/4 to win the game so they’re too short for me to take. However, I’m happy to take Uruguay to win this one with draw no bet because I genuinely feel that they’re the better side and that they offer far more in front of goal than France do so this has to be worth a punt today in what really should be a rather low-scoring affair.
Verdict: Uruguay to win with draw no bet at 6/4.
Universidad Catolica vs Independiente – away win at 7/4.
I’m no big advocate of away wins in Ecuador but these two sides love beating each other away from home and Independiente are well placed to do so today. Both of these sides were promoted to the Primera A last season and both have struggled as you’d expect but Independiente have settled the better of the two and are currently unbeaten in their last four games, giving them the momentum advantage. Interestingly enough, Independiente are the top goalscorers away from home in this division, notching up an impressive twelve goals in eight games. Their weak defending has let them down a fair bit so their wins are quite low on the road but they’re nonetheless a threat as they score so many goals. They’ve scored six goals in their last four games and have kept two clean sheets along the way so it’d be foolish to underestimate Indepenediente, minnows though they are. Universidad have lost their last two home games against Independiete and have already lost four out of eight games at home in Primera A so they do look susceptible. In fact, they’ve now lost their last four games consecutively, conceding eight goals along the way, scoring in just one game, and losing their last two home games consecutively along the way. Bluntly – Universidad Catolica are in bad shape for this game and their visitors are in good shape. There’s little quality difference between the two but to back the in-form visitors as the most potent side in the division away from home at 7/4 looks bizarrely generous and is certainly worth a punt tonight.
Verdict: Independiente to win at 7/4.
Jaro Pietarsaari vs JJK Jyvaskyla – home win at 5/6.
I think the odds a bit short here but there still should be some value. Jaro are simply a better side than JJK – fact. I’ve gone into detail previously about how JJK’s away record doesn’t reflect their overall ability, which is really rather poor. Instead, cast your attention to the fact that JJK haven’t scored for four consecutive games, losing three of them along the way. JJK suffered back-to-back defeats against Jaro last season, losing here 5-1 last time around. Jaro have improved since then and although their Veikkausliiga placing doesn’t reflect it, their overall level of ability and potential has increased dramatically. They’ve started to show it a little of late by scoring five goals in their last two home games and although their defending is questionable at times, their ability level is good and is certainly better than JJK’s. The visitors don’t give anyone an easy game but I expect even their steely resolve to have suffered a hammer-blow last match at home to Inter Turku. Inter are a damn good side on their day but they had everything against them on that day, enough so for JJK to take advantage but the impotent visitors somehow strolled away with a 3-0 win so JJK should be suffering mentally currently.
Jaro have more going for them than statistics suggest and their overall ability is a good deal better than JJK so I really fancy them to win this one today. In light of the fact that they’ve not won in four consecutive games, I’d prefer longer odds but the fact is that Jaro are the better side and should show it today so there should be value in the home win as they’re scoring goals whereas their visitors certainly are not. Expect unders here too!
Verdict: Jaro Pietarsaari to win at 5/6.
Accumulator fodder:
Deportivo Cuenca, Armed Forces.
Recommended bets:
No combinations appeal to me today guys!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
World Cup:
South Africa vs Mexico (6) over 2.5 goals
France vs Uruguay (5) 0-1, draw no bet
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Universidad Catolica vs Independiente (6) 1-2
Deportivo Cuenca vs Olmedo Riobamba (8) 2-0
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Jaro Pietarsaari vs JJK Jyvaskyla (7) under 2.5 goals
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Banga Gargzdai vs Siauliai (6) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Armed Forces (8) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!