Chelsea vs Blackpool
FreeToday’s featured game is the English Premier League game between reigning champions Chelsea and newly-promoted Blackpool. It’s not often I find a game in England that boasts any value but today’s game between one of the best sides and one of the worst sides in this division should show some today.
Carlo Ancelotti already knows he’s without influential playmaker Frank Lampard for this game, as well as full-back Bosingwa, but he shouldn’t be concerned given the defensive ineptitude of their opponents. Ancelotti can now call upon Drogba and Ashley Cole, both of whom were absent in Slovakia mid-week, which naturally boosts this already strong side. Four wins from four Premier League games says that Chelsea are playing well at the moment. However, seventeen goals scored in those four games says that Chelsea are playing brilliantly at the moment. You can argue that they’ve not had a hard run of games but I don’t expect this to be a hard game for them either so what would be the point in arguing it? They’re still averaging scoring over four goals per game and although their football isn’t always the most easy on the eye, it’s certainly by far the most efficient in the Premier League at the moment and Chelsea deserve massive credit for converting their chances en mass as no other side has done that consistently so far this season. They have a wealth of experience and ability at their disposal and with midfield general Essien back in business this year, they look virtually unstoppable so must be taken seriously for the title this year, particularly with the news that their title rivals Manchester United have suffered a big blow with Valencia being ruled out for the majority of the sesason. Morale should be very high here, to be blunt!
I have a lot of respect for Blackpool boss Ian Holloway and his team of terriers but they’re lacking in two key areas; defence and quality. Unfortunately for Blackpool, those are two areas that Chelsea will really punish them in. For all of his motivational skills and admirable attacking tactics, Holloway’s stubborn mannerisms mean that Blackpool are very exposed in games like this. They were utterly destroyed 6-0 at Arsenal on their last trip to London because Holloway fielded a 4-3-3 and that’s suicide at The Emirates, whoever you are. Holloway’s tactics may have joy against lesser or similar quality sides but he won’t take points off big sides like that and I think we’ll see another lesson of this today. Realistically, Blackpool should do what all newly-promoted sides do when they face a big side – defend well and counter-attack efficiently – but Holloway won’t let them do that. I’m not sure whether that’s because Blackpool are inept in defence and thus they play to their strengths by attacking all the time or whether Holloway watches too much Spanish football but either way – Blackpool won’t sit back here, and that is incredibly dangerous.
The home win here is not in any doubt for me. As a Manchester United fan, I’d love to believe Blackpool will get something here but it ain’t going to happen. The question is “how many will Chelsea score?”. Given that I don’t envision Blackpool defending here and given how excellent Chelsea have been in front of goal this season, you have to fancy a one-sided scoreline here. Drogba is back and he’ll kill off Blackpool by himself if allow so I really fancy in-form Chelsea to win this game by a lot of goals. I’m actually edging more towards caution by recommending the home win with a -2.5 goal handicap as I believe they could clear -3.5 and possibly -4.5 here but there should be value in my selection nonetheless.
Verdict: Chelsea to beat the -2.5 goal handicap at 4/5.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Dinamo Minsk – away win at 8/5.
Caution needs to be used with this bet as both sides are big sides in Belarus but I still think there’s value here.
Dinamo Minsk have won their last two visits here and have also won two consecutive games leading into this encounter. They are marginally the better of the two sides and naturally have loftier ambitions as a result. They’ve got a very strong midfield and thus their 4-5-1 formation is atypically very effective in this division, particularly away from home where they’ve won seven out of ten games this season. Dinamo aren’t excessive goalscorers away from home but few sides boast a better defensive record on the road than this youthful Dinamo Minsk outfit so they should given considerable respect here. Talented midfielder and Dinamo Minsk captain Sergey Kislyak is the heartbeat of this side and he’ll be instrumental if Dinamo Minsk intend to win this game and claim their rightful place in the European places. A win here today sees Dinamo Minsk pass Shakhtyor Soligorsk in the table and there’s nothing they want more currently. The hosts are a formidable force to face on their day, sort of like a mini-Dinamo Minsk in that they don’t score or concede many goals. Nonetheless, they remain a talented side, hence the good odds today. However, Shakhtyor have declined lately with just two goals scored in their past four games, winning just one of those games (at relegation-threatened Torpedo Zhodino). They’ve drawn two of those games at home which means they’ve now won just five out of twelve at home this season, drawing six times and losing just once. They find it hard to break sides down in general, which is an advantage that Dinamo Minsk have over them as they have more creative players in their side. Shakhtyor don’t have fond memories of this fixture and they’re not playing well enough to change that today, in my opinion. Although the away win is unquestionably a risky call here, it does bear value as I thnik there’s a decent chance of Shakhtyor not scoring here against a solid Dinamo defence but the Minsk giants should be able to score at least one with potency and momentum both favouring the visitors. With the above in mind, I think a narrow but important away win is on the cards here and the odds are good enough to take a chance on.
Verdict: Dinamo Minsk to win at 8/5.
Ceara vs Goias – lay Ceara at 21/20.
I’d love to phrase this more eloquently but there’s only one way that I can write it; Ceara are shit. Ignore their home record – that was under talented manager Gusmao at the start of the season. They’re now under their third manager who amusingly makes Ceara attack instead of playing to their only strength – defence – which is why they’ve looked so vulnerable of late. They’ve won just once in their last seven games and their last five home games have included failure to beat Gremio Prudente and Atletico Goianiense, who are far from difficult opponents. Ceara don’t score enough goals in general because they’re inept in front of goal and only striker-less Flamengo have scored as few goals as they have in Serie A as a result. Ceara could yet get dragged into a relegation battle if they’re not careful because they’re not as good as the vast majority of sides around them. I’d normally give them a better chance against Goias than I currently do but Goias are in inspired form with no defeats in three games, winning twice along the way. They’ve held giants Internacional to a 0-0 draw away from home during that run and have smashed seven goals past their opponents in their other two games, which were at home to Guarani and Botafogo respectively. I cannot deny that Goias are generally a home side and their away record isn’t flattering but they’re playing some really encouraging and potent football at the moment as they bid to beat the drop so don’t doubt them here.
Forget the statistics – quality-wise, I personally rate Goias as the better side here. Different circumstances this season for both sides have allowed the gap to open up but I really fancy Goias to cause an upset here with the way they’re playing at the moment and the general poor quality level of their hosts. Ceara are priced too short for this game, in my opinion, so laying them could be a profitable selection tonight.
Verdict: Lay Ceara at 21/20
Internacional vs Vasco da Gama – lay Internacional at 21/20.
This bet works on the same level as all of my other Vasco bets; former Ceara manager Gusmao. He’s the only manager in the division yet to taste defeat and his Vasco side are unbeaten in fourteen consecutive games now. Vasco’s football style isn’t pretty but it’s remarkably effective. They defend and attack as a unit so they tend to compensate for a lack of stars in their side and as a result, they’re nearly impossible to beat. It doesn’t matter if they play good or bad sides – Vasco defend incredibly well and should be able to do so tonight against a talented but somewhat impotent Internacional side, although caution is obviously recommended here because Internacional are still the better of the two sides overall.
Verdict: Lay Internacional at 21/20.
Cucuta Deportivo vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla – lay Cucuta Deportivo at 4/5.
There’s a good reason that Cucuta Deportivo haven’t beaten Atletico Junior Barranquilla in their last three attempts at home and it’s because they’re not as good as them. You can look at the Primera A table and be blown away by four wins in four home games for Cucuta and a somewhat disappointing start to the season by visitors Junior or you can look on this game from a quality perspective and wonder why the hell the hosts are so short for this game. I can’t deny that they’re in-form and they may even win the game but anyone who touches them at those odds is a mug. Junior are a damn good side, which is why they’ve only lost once in their four away games this season, so I expect them to give a good account of themselves tonight. Colombian sides rarely travel well so there’s obviously risk here but laying a side against one of the best sides in Colombia at 4/5 will always look an appealing bet to me.
Verdict: Lay Cucuta Deportivo at 4/5
APOEL Nicosia vs Anorthosis Famagusta – home win at 4/5.
APOEL Nicosia welcome back midfield duo Marcinho and Pinto, which should boost their creativity ahead of this rivalry match-up. APOEL are still the better of these two sides but their returning players are very much needed to breathe life into the side following a somewhat stale display against Enosis Neon Paralimni last match. APOEL are still solid at home and haven’t even conceded at home to Anorthosis in their last four meetings, winning each game comfortably. It aids their cause that their descending visitors are missing key defender Georgiou for this game through injury as APOEL need all the help they can get to find the net currently. Anorthosis aren’t the side that they once were and their good start to the season shouldn’t be leapt upon over-zealously because both games were actually played on their home turf and neither side that they faced are particularly good. Anorthosis are gradually slipping behind the two Nicosia clubs in terms of quality and today is another opportunity for that to be re-affirmed and it’s an opportunity that I think APOEL can take. This game should still be fairly close but the home win at 4/5 looks a bit more generous than it should be today.
Verdict: APOEL Nicosia to win at 4/5.
Kolding vs AB Copenhagen – away win at 6/5.
I fell into a trap similar to this last week when AB Copenhagen somehow failed to beat Roskilde but surely lightning can’t strike the same location twice?! Copenhagen are by far the superior of these two sides and beat them in all four encounters between the two sides last season. Their inability to finish sides off this season is beginning to irritate me but their overall quality level and potency is one of the best in the division so you can understand why odds of 6/5 are hard to ignore for the visitors today. Kolding have marginally improved this season by becoming more competent in defence but they still look shaky in attack, too shaky for me to take them seriously this year. They’ve failed to win all three home games so far this season although they have only lost one of those games in tight, defensive displays so AB Copenhagen are going to have to work hard here. Nonetheless, this game should be played to AB’s tune and the way they do things is to attack without fear, concede goals, but ultimately win the game by outscoring their opponents. Kolding may well score here but at 6/5, I think it’s worthwhile taking AB Copenhagen to outscore them today as they’re one of the biggest and best sides in the division currently.
Verdict: AB Copenhagen to win at 6/5.
FC Honka Espoo vs KuPS Kuopio- lay FC Honka Espoo at 4/5.
Honka have been good at home this season with six wins in ten games but have completely forgotten how to defend lately. They’ve shipped eight goals in three games and it’s cost them dearly in points with six dropped from a possible nine gained. They’ve lost two games at home during that run against inferior sides (AC Oulu and JJK Jyvaskyla respectively) and have deserved it thanks to really immature and thus ineffectual defending. I can’t criticise their goalscoring ability; they’re capable of scoring goals against anyone in this division at any time. However, the question here is whether they’re outscore over-achieving KuPS Kuopio or not. I won’t deny that they’re capable of doing so but KuPS have been excellent this season and have only lost four out of eleven on the road in the Veikkausliiga and thus should be taken seriously here. They have a lot of spirit and are very well-organised so should be able to trouble their more illustrious opponents today. Only giants HJK Helsinki have scored more than KuPS have away from home and with KuPS having won two out of their last three away games, I think the chances are good of KuPS causing an upset today. They’ve already won at HJK Helsinki this season; why not at title contenders Honka too? Honka are playing badly enough to allow it and KuPS are good enough to capitalise on it so I think there could be some value in laying the hosts today, despite a somewhat disheartening head-to-head record between the two sides!
Verdict: Lay FC Honka Espoo at 4/5.
RoPS Rovaniemi vs PoPa Pori – home win at evens.
I’m very hesitant about this bet and those of you who use this site regularly will know why. However, it’s finally do-or-die for RoPS Rovaniemi; they have to win this game. PoPa Pori are one of the few sides in the Ykkonen that can match them on their day but let’s face it – if RoPS turn it on, then they win – that’s just how it goes in the Ykkonen because they’re the best side in it. They need to invoke some of old Zeddy Sailetti’s spirit into his fellow Zambians in the side to guide RoPS to promotion today and I think they may just have found the trigger for it. You see, the Finnish Football Association announced lately that the league format in Finland next year is set to change and ultimately, the only way to be promoted from the Ykkonen to the Veikkausliiga is to first win the Ykkonen table and then win a play-off against a Veikkausliiga side. Only one Ykkonen side will be promoted per year but five will be relegated from the Ykkonen to the Kakkonen next year to try and change the way Finnish football is developing. With that in mind, who will want to be in this division next year? I think this will naturally force most (if not all) sides into playing with more passion than they currently are in the Ykkonen but the reason I’ve chosen this game to act upon is because if RoPS have motivation, they win games. They’re not playing well at the moment and keep drawing blanks but with that bombshell dropped by the FFA lately, I really fancy RoPS to be motivated enough to get a result here. PoPa are playing really well so you must approach this bet with caution but I firmly believe that if RoPS turn it on here, they’ll blow PoPa away and make this bet a good value bet.
Verdict: RoPS Rovaniemi to win at evens.
St.Pauli vs Hamburger SV – away win at evens.
I can’t substantiate this bet much more than by saying “quality difference”. St.Pauli aren’t good enough to stay in the division because they don’t score goals and Hamburg are playing well, simply put. They’ve beaten Schalke at home and Frankfurt away, which are two respectable results, although the draw at home to Nurnberg last match was a little unexpected and shows that there is still work to do at Hamburg. Hamburg aren’t what they were although their attack still boasts some invaluable assets such as Van Nistelrooy and Guererro but their defence does look vulnerable, hence why Hamburg always seem to falter in the end. Nonetheless, there’s no denying that they’re currently one of the top sides in Germany and they’re facing a determined but somewhat ineffectual St.Pauli side and should be able to take advantage of that fact, particularly as the newcomers really have problems scoring goals. Away wins in the Bundesliga are not as frequent as they should be with some real gulfs in class opening up each year but this league can be quite unpredictable (i.e. VfB Stuttgart somehow scoring seven yesterday!) so do approach with caution. Nonetheless, there does appear to be value on the away win although I’d leave it if the odds drop.
Verdict: Hamburger SV to win at evens.
Schalke 04 vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund – away win with draw no bet at 23/20.
This game is a hotly-contested derby no matter what circumstances follow each side into the game. However, I’ve decided to boldly wade into what is a very difficult game to bet on – well, barring the overs bet! I’m going to try my hand at this bet because Schalke 04 are looking half the side that they did last year. They’ve lost three out of three Bundesliga games this season and only reigning champions Bayern Munich can match their paltry record of just two goals scored in three games. This isn’t a new feature for Schalke; they prefer their tight displays with stout defending to grind out a narrow victory. However, they’ve lost far too many players over the summer to still be the same team and it’s really showing. Striker Kevin Kuranyi left to join Dinamo Moscow, which was a big enough blow as it is. However, the departures of defenders Rafinha (to Genoa) and Westermann (to Hamburger SV) have ruined Schalke’s usually watertight defence and they look suspect at the back as a result. Schalke have brought players in as a result, such as experienced Spanish striker Raul and clinical Dutch striker Huntelaar but have they adequately replaced their missing defenders with the likes of Sarpei from Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Plestan from LOSC Lille? Not in my eyes. Schalke shouldn’t be able to attain a position above mid-table this season unless they develop into an all out attack side because they don’t have the foundations at the back to keep sides out.
However, visitors Dormund haven’t looked as good as they do now since the days of Sammer and Ricken. Unlike Schalke, Dortmund do approach games with the intent of scoring a lot of goals and let’s face it – they have the firepower to achieve a lot of goals too. They’ve won four consecutive games in all competitions, which includes an impressive 4-3 win at Karpaty Lviv in Ukraine last match despite trailing 3-2 in the dying minutes of the game. Dortmund have tremendous belief and tenacity and it suits them very well indeed. Sahin is playing terrifically well in the middle and new signings Kagawa and Lewandowski are showing signs of bedding well. Dortmund have the nucleus of a very good side indeed with the likes of Subotic in defence and I genuinely have high hopes for this sleeping giant of German football, particularly with none of the Bundesliga sides dominating at the moment. Dortmund’s defence isn’t the most reliable in the world but their attack is extremely incisive as ten goals scored in their past four games indicates all too well, particularly with three of those games being away from home. They’ve beaten both VfB Stuttgart and VfL Wolfsburg during that run so they’ve not exactly been dealt an easy hand to start the season with and thus I think they’re a tad more prepared than demoralised Schalke so I fancy them to cause an upset here.
Hosts Schalke have a great record in the derby between these two sides, particularly as they’ve not tasted defeat at home against Dortmund since 2005. However, I think the tables are gradually turning and we could see that today, although as we all know, derbies are often the prime place for sides to regain their swagger so caution must be emphasised here. I’m encouraged that ex-Dortmund defender Metzelder misses the game for Schalke as that opens their vulnerable defence up further but Dortmund are missing experienced midfielder Kehl so it balances out fairly well. Either way, I still think Dortmund have enough to cause an upset here so my call is the away win with draw no bet.
Verdict: BV09 Borussia Dortmund to win with draw no bet at 23/20.
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam – away win at 3/4.
As we all know, Feyenoord had a summer to forget with a whole host of big names leaving their side and they’re frankly little more than a name nowadays. Gone are the likes of Hofland, Makaay, Van Bronckhorst, and Landzaat, not to mention De Guzman, so Feyenoord are now looking short on both experience and talent. There’s now an awful burden of weight on emerging talents Wijndalum and Castaginos that they’re simply not ready to shoulder, talented though they unquestionably are. This transitional period for Feyenoord will undoubtedly end but I don’t think we’ll see much from them this year. They can beat half of the division but it’s in games like this where I expect them to be horribly exposed by what I can only describe as a better side so I expect Feyenoord to struggle today.
Visitors Ajax appear to have finally obtained some form of consistency with four wins in their past five games in all competitions with the only game to mar that record being their trip to face Real Madrid mid-week. As far as the Eredivisie goes, Ajax have been impeccable with four wins and one draw from five games, scoring an average of over three goals per game and conceding less than a goal per game on average. Only title rivals PSV Eindhoven have scored more goals than Ajax with Uruguayan striker Luis Suarez beginning to re-discover his World Cup form and he’s linking up well with new Moroccan striker El Hamdaoui so Ajax are beginning to look a force again. Urby Emanuelson is growing in stature and Ajax finally have a bit of depth to their side that they’ve needed for a while so I’m beginning to restore my faith in them. It’s a bitter blow that Uruguayan winger Lodeiro is out for a while with injury as I have high hopes for him but Ajax are coping well without him for now and should be able to continue their excellent run of form today against an inferior and somewhat youthful Feyenoord side.
If the above isn’t enough for you then consider that Feyenoord are missing number one goalkeeper Mulder and that midfielder Bruins is a hefty doubt for this game. Then also consider that experienced striker Jon Dahl Tomasson is still on the sidelines with a long injury and that defender Indi is suspended and Feyenoord’s already stretched squad is beginning to look a tad bare. Ajax are a lot better equipped to deal with missing players and have better players than Feyenoord in general so in all honesty, despite the prestigious history of both sides, I think the odds on the away win are a tad generous here so I fancy the away win at 3/4.
Verdic: AFC Ajax Amsterdam to win at 3/4.
Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok – away win at 27/20.
The inability of Jagiellonia to win away from home in the Ekstraklasa has been well-documented in recent years but their squad appears to finally be good enough to cast off the shackles of their depressing reputation and finally push their side into the places where they feel that they belong – the European places. They’ve won four out of five games so far this season, drawing the other encounter, and thus bring great momentum into this game. They’ve not exactly had an easy run either with recent victories including home wins against reigning champions Lech Poznan and Ekstraklasa giants Wisla Krakow so Jagiellonia are certainly ruffling a few feathers at the moment. With Lech looking a tad sporadic, Wisla looking weak at the back, Legia looking like none of their players have ever seen each other before, and Polonia Warsaw sacking Bakero, there’s definitely a gap in the Ekstraklasa for a dominant leader so why not them? Veteran striker Tomasz Frankowski is going a great job in attack and emphasises just why Jagiellonia are doing so well – plenty of experienced players in their team. They’re clinical, well-organised, and very hard to beat so I have to give them their chances here today.
Hosts Arka Gdynia are arguably the worst side in the Ekstraklasa but they don’t show it as often as they should because they’re one of the most battling Ekstraklasa sides in history. They’re not an easy side to beat; they just don’t score many goals themselves. Arka also have an additional reason to hate Jagiellonia following their Polish Cup defeat against them so expect a feisty Arka display today. Typically, Arka’s displays this season have been tenacious but with little to impress. They’re unbeaten at home so far but I’d argue that they’ve not faced anyone of substantial quality at home, hence the record. They’ve lost two out of their three away games but they’ve played respectably away from home, only losing 1-0 at Wisla Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin respectively, drawing 0-0 with reigning champions Lech Poznan too. If Arka scored goals once in a while, they’d be a very dangerous side but as they don’t, it’s in games like this one where they can be caught out. They’ll now bow down for any side but you’re always susceptible to defeat if you don’t score goals and that is Arka’s biggest problem – it always has been.
I’d say that there’s a decent chance of a draw in this game but Jagiellonia have been playing so well of late and are scoring for fun so I do fancy them to trouble little Arka Gdynia much more than they normally do. Arka never look riled at any point so Jagiellonia have a real battle on their hands today but I feel they can win the game if they poach a goal and they’re playing well enough to score so why not? I’ll be surpised if Arka register a goal here soI feel that the away win bears considerable value today.
Verdict: Jagiellonia Bialystok to win at 27/20.
Hercules Alicante vs Valencia CF – away win at 23/20.
Ok, Hercules Alicante played an immaculate game at the Nou Camp last match and won 2-0. They’ve now won their Copa del Rey final; it’s time to return to reality. Hercules are a decent side at best but they have tremendous problems scoring goals and thus look vulnerable, just as they did in their opening Primera Liga game against Athletic Club de Bilbao. Hercules have long been a decent side but they’re not more than that. Any side can produce a one-off breathtaking display and win a game that they shouldn’t but I’ll be genuinely shocked if they pull of that feat again tonight against mighty Valencia. Hercules had the element of surprise against Barcelona that they won’t have against Valencia which puts them on a level playing field. Valencia may be missing both Vicente and Banega for this game but they still boast the likes of Hernandez, Joaquin, and Mata in their arsenal so they’re really not short on talent. They’ve got two experiend Primera Liga strikers in Aduriz and Soldado and although you might think that the losses of Silva and Villa would destroy Valencia (I certainly did!), it’s actually galvanised them and they look better for it. They look more determined somehow and keep the ball better. Valencia will never been a strong defensive side; it’s just not in their nature. However, coach Unai Emery knows how to get this Valencia side playing and they’re doing well so far this year under his experienced stewardship so I fancy Valencia a lot here. They enter the game on the back of an emphatic 4-0 victory in Turkey against Bursaspor, which means they’ve now won three consecutive games this season, so momentum certainly favours the visitors. Quality favours the visitors too and I just don’t see how the hosts are going to contain this very able Valencia side, let alone get the ball off them.
I can just about accept the odds on this game as it is a derby of sorts but why Valencia aren’t bigger favourites aside from that is beyond me. They’re a far better side and they’re capable of beating anyone in this division on their day so why newly-promoted Hercules on the back of one good result can change that today is beyond me. Hercules are no pushovers, as I’ve said, but Valencia are more than capable of winning this game with some ease.
Verdict: Valencia CF to win at 23/20.
Trelleborg vs Elfsborg Boras – home win with draw no bet at 11/10.
You have to fancy Trelleborg here today, really. They’re entering this game on the back of a strong run of form which has seen them win six out of their last nine games, losing only at Kalmar and Helsingborgs’ respectively along the way, drawing the remaining encounter. The team are playing with renewed vigour as the threat of relegation dawned upon them and they’ve never looked better than they do now as a result. They’ve now won a hefty seven times from eleven home games in the Allsvenskan and only the top four sides in the division have won more home games than they have so they should be taken very seriously here. They’ve notched up seven goals in their last two games and have even started winning away from home so the hosts are very much in-form and ready to strike at the moment.
Visitors Elfsborg Boras are unquestionably the better side but they have a big chink in their armour in that they cannot play football away from home. Why? Artificial turf, simply. Their home ground, the Boras Arena, is a stadium with artificial turf which is why Elfsborg have such a strong home record and such a poor away record. They’ve won just twice in eleven away games in the Allsvenskan this season because they cannot score goals away from home. They’ve not been competent defensively for a while away from home with nearly two goals conceded per away game but it’s their lack of goalscoring that harms them. They’ve lost five out of eleven on the road this season and have only won once in their last three games so things aren’t great for Elfsborg at the moment. Returning to the two away wins that Elfsborg have claimed this season – they’ve only beaten GAIS Goteborg and Halmstad on the road so they’re not merely unlucky away from home – they’re just very ineffectual. They do boast arguably the best striker in Sweden currently in Denni Avdic which is a good Swedish name so naturally have a chance of winning any game with him in the ranks. However, he’s not played since late August and Elfsborg have looked vulnerable as a result and could be caught out today too.
Although Elfsborg are the better side and dominate the head-to-head encounters, I can’t take them seriously for this game. They simply do not play well away from home and they’re facing a Trelleborg side that are very much a galvanised and powerful unit and will give Elfsborg a really tough game here. 2/1 on the home win appeals to me immensely but I have to be logical here and accept that Elfsborg are the better side. Therefore, the home win with draw no bet at 11/10 is my choice as the odds are still generous with the above information in mind.
Verdict: Trelleborg to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
BATE Borisov, Anderlecht, Independente de Santa Fe Bogota, AGF Aarhus, Chelsea, Augsburg, Olympiakos Piraeus, PAOK Salonika, Debreceni VSC, Breidablik Kopavogur, FH Hafnarfjordur, FK Ventspils, Liepajas Metalurgs, Daugava Daugavpils, Zalgiris Vilnius, Universidad San Martin, CFR Cluj, Celtic, IFK Goteborg, Shakhtar Donetsk, Deportivo Tachira, Deportivo Petare, Llanelli.
Recommended bets:
Dinamo Minsk, BATE Borisov, and Debreceni VSC at 3/1.
Trelleborg DNB and IFK Goteborg at 2/1.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam, Olympiakos Piraeus, and Augsburg at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
All Boys vs Estudiantes De La Plata (6) 1-2
Newells Old Boys vs River Plate (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Banfield vs Independiente (6) 1-0
Boca Juniors vs Colon de Santa Fe (6) 2-2
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Heart vs Wellington Phoenix (5) 1-1
Gold Coast United vs Central Coast Mariners (4) 2-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Partizan Minsk vs BATE Borisov (8) 0-2
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Dinamo Minsk (5) 1-2
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AA Gent vs Zulte-Waregem (7) 2-1
Charleroi vs Club Brugge (5) 0-1
Anderlecht vs Kortrijk (8) 2-0
Brazilian Serie A:
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Guarani vs Santos (4) 2-1, draw no bet
Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria (6) 2-1
Internacional vs Vasco da Gama (6) 0-0
Flamengo vs Fluminense (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Ceara vs Goias (5) 1-1
Avai vs Gremio (6) 2-2
Bulgarian A PFG:
Slavia Sofia vs CSKA Sofia (6) 1-2
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv (6) both sides to score
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad Catolica (7) over 2.5 goals
Nublense vs San Luis (4) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
Real Cartagena vs Deportivo Pereira (6) 2-1
Cortulua vs La Equidad Bogota (5) 1-1
Boyaca Chico vs Deportivo Cali (4) 2-1, draw no bet
Once Caldas Manizales vs Deportes Quindio (6) over 3.5 goals
Cucuta Deportivo vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (5) 1-1
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Millonarios Bogota (8) 2-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Zagreb (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Rijeka vs Hajduk Split (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Cypriot Division 1:
APOEL Nicosia vs Anorthosis Famagusta (7) 2-1
Ethnikos Achnas vs Apollon Limassol (4) 0-1, draw no bet
APOP/Kinyras vs A.E.Paphos (5) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Usti nad Labem vs Ceske Budejovice (6) under 2.5 goals
Brno vs Bohemians 1905 (6) over 2.5 goals
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice (6) 2-1
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens vs Esbjerg (6) 1-0
Silkeborg vs OB Odense (5) 1-1
SonderjyskE vs Midtylland (6) 1-2
FC Copenhagen vs Brondby (7) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Danish 1st Division:
Vestjaelland vs Fredericia (5) over 2.5 goals
Hobro vs AGF Aarhus (8) over 2.5 goals
Roskilde vs Viborg (5)
Hvidovre vs Skive (5)
Vejle vs Naestved (6)
Kolding vs AB Copenhagen (7)
Ecudorian Primera A:
Universidad Catolica vs Olmedo Riobamba (7) 2-1
Deportivo Quito vs Emelec Guayaquil (7) under 2.5 goals
English Premier League:
Manchester United vs Liverpool (4) 1-1
Wigan Athletic vs Manchester City (6) 1-2
Chelsea vs Blackpool (10) -2.5 handicap
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
Vikingur Gotu vs HB Torshavn (5) 2-1, draw no bet
B36 Torshavn vs B68 Toftir (5) over 2.5 goals
Suduroy vs NSI Runavik (6) 1-2
AB Argir vs B71 Sandur (5) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
JJK Jyvaskyla vs Jaro Pietarsaari (6) 1-1
MyPa Anjalankoski vs HJK Helsinki (7) 0-1
FC Honka Espoo vs KuPS Kuopio (5) 2-2
VPS Vaasa vs Inter Turku (5) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Ykkonen:
RoPS Rovaniemi vs PoPa Pori (6)
MP Mikkeli vs Hameenlinna (4) draw no bet
KooTeePee Kotka vs PK-35 Helsinki (6)
French Ligue 1:
LOSC Lille vs Auxerre (6) 1-0
Paris Saint-Germain vs Stade Rennais (6) 2-1
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Olympique Lyonnais (5) 1-1
French Ligue 2:
Angers SCO vs Istres (6)
German Bundesliga:
St.Pauli vs Hamburger SV (7) over 2.5 goals
Schalke 04 vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund (5) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Nurnberg (7) 2-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Augsburg vs Osnabruck (8)
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs 1860 Munich (5)
Arminia Bielefeld vs Ingolstadt (6)
Erzebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg (6) over 2.5 goals
Greek Super League:
Kerkyra vs Atromitos (6) 1-1
Panionios vs Aris Salonika (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus (8) 0-2
PAOK Salonika vs Olympiakos Volos (8) under 2.5 goals
AEK Athens vs Asteras Tripolis (7) 2-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Debreceni VSC vs Ujpest (8) 2-1
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Breidablik Kopavogur vs Selfoss (8) 2-0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (6) over 2.5 goals
Fylkir Reykjavik vs Haukar Hafnarfjordur (6) over 2.5 goals
Valur Reykjavik vs Fram Reykjavik (5) 2-2
UMF Grindavik vs KR Reykjavik (5) 1-2
FH Hafnarfjordur vs Keflavik (8) over 2.5 goals
Italian Serie A:
Bari vs Cagliari (5) 1-0
Chievo Verona vs Brescia (6) 2-1
Cesena vs Lecce (6) 1-0
Parma vs Genoa (6) 1-1
AS Roma vs Bologna (7) 2-1
Udinese vs Juventus (5) 1-1
Palermo vs Internazionale (6) 1-1
Sampdoria vs SSC Napoli (6) 2-1
Japanese J-League:
Vegalta Sendai vs Montedio Yamagata (6) 1-1
Albirex Niigata vs Kyoto Sanga (7) 2-1
Latvian Virsliga:
Jauniba vs Tranzits Ventspils (6) 2-0
FK Ventspils vs Blazma Rezekne (9) -1.5 handicaop
Daugava Daugavpils vs Jurmala (8) 2-1
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Jelgava (8) 2-0
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Klaipeda vs Zalgiris Vilnius (8) 0-2
Mexican Primera Division:
Toluca vs America (6) 2-1
Puebla vs Tigres UANL (6) 1-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (7) over 2.5 goals
NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar (5) 1-1
Roda JC Kerkrade vs PSV Eindhoven (7) 1-2
FC Utrecht vs VVV Venlo (7) 1-0
Heracles Almelo vs Twente Enschede (6) 0-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Dordrecht ’90 vs Den Bosch (6)
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Sandefjord vs Tromso (6) under 2.5 goals
Start Kristiansand vs Stromsgodset (6) over 2.5 goals
Stabaek vs Odd Grenland Skien (6) over 2.5 goals
Molde FK vs Honefoss (7) 2-1
Aalesund vs Kongsvinger (5) 0-0
Brann Bergen vs Rosenborg BK (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Nybergsund vs Sogndal (5)
Mjondalen vs Ranheim (4) draw no bet
Follo vs Lov-Ham Bergen (5)
Alta vs Fredrikstad (6)
Moss vs Bryne (5)
Bodo Glimt vs Sandnes Ulf (6)
Sarpsborg 08 vs Strommen (7) over 2.5 goals
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Sportivo Luqueno vs Sport Colombia (5) 1-1
Sportivo Trinidense vs Rubio Nu (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Tacuary vs Olimpia Asuncion (6) 1-1
Peruvian Primera Division:
Universidad San Martin vs Jose Galvez (8) 2-0
Melgar FBC vs Alianza Atletico (6) 2-1
Total Chalaco vs Sporting Cristal (5) 1-1
Sport Boys vs Cienciano (7) 2-0
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Arka Gdynia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (6) 0-1
Polish Liga 1:
Kolejarz Stroze vs Odra Wodzislaw (5) draw no bet
Ruch Radzionkow vs Katowice (6) at least one red card in this game
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Rio Ave vs Academica de Coimbra (5) 0-1
Naval de Maio vs Vitoria Setubal (5) 1-1
Pacos de Ferreira vs Sporting Braga (6) 1-2
SL Benfica vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Romanian Liga:
CFR Cluj vs Targu Mures (8) over 2.5 goals
Dinamo Bucharest vs Vaslui (6) over 2.5 goals
Russian Premier League:
Tom Tomsk vs Lokomotiv Moscow (6) 1-1
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Rubin Kazan (7) 0-1
Scottish Premier League:
Kilmarnock vs Celtic (8) 1-2
Serbian Super Liga:
Borac Cacak vs Partizan Belgrade (7) under 2.5 goals
Spartak Subotica vs Sevojno (6) 2-1
Rad Belgrade vs Hajduk Kula (6) 2-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Primorje vs Celje (5) 1-1
Triglav vs Olimpija Ljubljana (4) 2-1, draw no bet
Spanish Primera Liga:
Hercules Alicante vs Valencia CF (7) 1-2
Racing Santander vs Real Zaragoza (6) 1-1
Levante vs Villarreal (5) 1-1
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona (5) over 3.5 goals
Malaga vs Sevilla CF (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Betis Balompie vs Real Valladolid (6)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (6)
Granada vs Ponferradina (5)
Recreativo de Huelva vs Albacete (6)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Gefle vs Brommapojkarna (4) under 2.5 goals
Halmstad vs Orebro (6) 1-2
IFK Goteborg vs Atvidaberg (8) 2-0
Trelleborg vs Elfsborg Boras (6) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Swedish Superettan:
Angelholm vs Osters (6)
Assyriska Sodertalje vs Syrianska Sodertalje (5) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Turkish Super Lig:
Karabukspor vs Genclerbirligi (6) 1-1
Fenerbahce vs Besiktas JK (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this gam
Istanbul BB vs Konyaspor (7) 2-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Zorya Lugansk vs Dynamo Kiev (7) 1-2
Arsenal Kiev vs Metalist Kharkiv (6) 0-1
Karpaty Lviv vs Obolon Kiev (7) 2-1
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Tavriya Simferopol (8) 2-0
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Central Espanol vs Miramar Misiones (6) 2-1
Rampla Juniors vs Cerro (5) 1-1
Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo Wanderers (7) over 2.5 goals
Danubio vs Fenix (7) 2-0
Tacuarembo vs Liverpool Montevideo (6) 1-2
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Bella Vista (5) 1-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Carabobo vs Zamora (6) 1-0
Yaracuyanos vs Monagas SC (5) 1-1
Trujillanos vs Caracas (5) 1-2
Deportivo Tachira vs Atletico Venezuela (8) 2-0
Estudiantes de Merida vs Caroni (7) 2-0
Mineros de Guayana vs Deportivo Lara (6) 1-1
Deportivo Anzoategui vs Atletico El Vigia (7) 2-1
Deportivo Petare vs Zulia (8) 2-1
Real Esppor Club vs Aragua (7) 1-0
Welsh Premier League:
Llanelli vs Newtown (8) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!