FC Utrecht vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam
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First of all – a big congratulations to anyone that managed to win in the quagmire of yesterday, which was frankly a terrible day, in my view. I cannot begin to explain the anger that I feel with such days because good tips lose as a result of just bizarre outcomes that are just beyond my control, unfortunately. Still, onwards and upwards, I suppose.
Anyway, today’s featured game is the Eredivisie encounter between FC Utrecht and AFC Ajax Amsterdam. Both sides enter this game on the back of victories so momentum is decent for both sides today.
Hosts Utrecht actually boast one of the strongest home records in the Eredivisie this season with six wins from eight games, losing just once along the way. They average scoring 2.5 goals per home game and conceding a goal per home game so they really are quite the force at home. That said, Utrecht struggled an awful lot to overcome ten-man VVV Venlo in their last match and needed a last-gasp goal to take three points from the game. The reason that Utrecht struggled is because the star of the team (Van Wolfswinkel) is out injured and without him, they tend to look rather average. The starlet is still absent for this game but so is his fellow striker Mulenga and back-up striker Kogel so Utrecht are really quite short in attack. Removing Mulenga and Van Wolfswinkel from their attack removes fourteen goals from Utrecht’s tally this season so they’re not in the best of places currently. Regular starter Nijholt is a doubt in midfield and with Ajax having won three out of their last four visits to Utrecht, Utrecht are beginning to get that familiar sinking feeling that they tend to get when playing very good sides. Utrecht’s only home defeat of the season so far was unsurprisingly inflicted by giants PSV Eindhoven as it’s the only very good side that they’ve hosted but now they have another to host and it’ll take more than an unconvincing win at VVV Venlo to convince me that they’re going to trouble Ajax today.
Ajax were absolutely immense against Feyenoord earlier this week at the Amsterdam ArenA. They were determined, pressurising, and swift from start to finish. It didn’t seem to matter that they fielded a lot of young players as they passed the ball like experienced professionals and carved Feyenoord apart time and time again. The heartbeat of the team is emerging Danish playmaker Eriksen, who was untouchable in this game. In all honesty, the way that Ajax played and the chances that they had meant that 6-0 would not have been an unfair scoreline, in my view. However, that leads me into my next point – Ajax have problems in front of goal. They have lots of talented players but when it comes to putting the ball in the net, they do struggle. That struggle is likely to continue today as El Hamdaoui is still out for Ajax so we’re playing a little with fire today as Ajax are likely to field their talented youngsters again with Frank de Boer seemingly very stubborn in that area. Cvitanich is back and ready for action but he wasn’t fielded against Feyenoord so there’s no guarantee that he’ll feature tonight, unfortunately. Emanuelson is still absent for Ajax and although he’s undeniably a loss for Ajax, he’s not irreplaceable so I’m not too concerned here. As long as Ajax actually take the chances that they create then they should have a lot of joy here but that is the risk you’d be taking here.
10/11 is a decent price on an Ajax win here as they are the better side and Utrecht miss their star player. I’d not take anything shorter than 10/11 because Ajax aren’t good enough in front of goal to merit it but I still really fancy Ajax here. The way de Boer has his youngsters playing tends to mean that they manipulate possession so this should be Ajax’s game to lose, really. For me, there’s value on the away win in this game but do approach with caution here for the above reasons.
Team news – Utrecht miss Mulenga, Van Wolfswinkel, De Kogel, Oar, and have doubts over Nijholt whereas Ajax miss Suarez, Vermeer, Lodeiro, Tainio, Silva, Emanuelson, and El Hamdaoui.
Verdict: AFC Ajax Amsterdam to win at 10/11.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
FSV Frankfurt vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen – home win at 8/11.
Although I can back it up with statistics, the predominant point behind this preview is that FSV Frankfurt are simply better than Rot-Weiss Oberhausen. Last season was different; FSV Frankfurt were rather weak. However, they’ve come back this year with a stronger side, especially in midfield, and I really rate them at the moment. They’ve won six out of nine at home already in this campaign and average scoring nearly two goals per home game so you can see how much they’ve come on. A lot of people may point to their draw at rock-bottom Arminia Bielefeld in their last game but I’d point out that Bielefeld have signed some decent players during the transfer window and have strengthened their squad as a result so be wary when betting against them. However, Frankfurt are a good side, especially at home, so I have faith in them here. Oberhausen still have the remnants of the injury problems they had in their 1-3 defeat against Hertha HSC Berlin and that coupled with the fact that they’re away from home spells disaster for them today. They’ve already lost six out of nine on the road in the Bundesliga 2 this season and with an average of two goals conceded per away game, things don’t look too rosy for the visitors today. They do score the odd goal away from home but with two regular strikers out injured for today’s game, I just don’t see how they’ll get anything from this game. Odds of 8/11 aren’t tremendous but there’s still value there with the above in mind.
Team news – Frankfurt miss Pintol and Tosunoglu whereas Oberhausen miss Corvers, Gordon, Schmidtgal, Luz, and Terranova.
Verdict: FSV Frankfurt to win at 8/11.
Groningen vs Twente Enschede – home win with draw no bet at 11/10.
I can appreciate that Twente are considered to be a better side than Groningen nowadays but seriously – how on earth are Groningen 2/1 to win this game today? Nobody has won more home games in the Eredivisie than Groningen have this season so the odds look rather outlandish, in my view.
Groningen have actually won nine out of ten Eredivisie home games this season, drawing the other game. They possess this record because they average scoring over two goals per home game and concede just over a goal per every two home games. Groningen are a good side, especially with Slovenian starlet Matavz in attack as his pace is untouchable at times. Regrettably, Groningen do miss two important midfielders today – Sparv and Van de Laak – but hopefully they’ll regain their status as a strong unit and be able to maintain their strong home record against Twente today.
You could be forgiven for taking Twente to win this game on the basis that they overcame local rivals Heracles Almelo 5-0 in their last match. However, despite the convincing scoreline, Twente actually created very few chances and I personally think that the scoreline flattered them. Morale is very high as a result, however, so we really must be cautious in this game. Ruiz is on the brink of returning after his lengthy injury but shouldn’t feature in this game, really. Theo Janssen is a doubt for this game too and he’s a massive player for Twente – I really hope he doesn’t feature in this game as it gives the hosts another advantage here. The loan signing of Onyewu is a good acquisition for Twente; he should make their defence very solid indeed but hopefully he won’t have adjusted to the Twente ways just yet! Nonetheless, Twente have won six out of ten on the road in the Eredivisie this season due to highly efficient displays but with Ruiz still not fit and Janssen a doubt, I’d be surprised to see Twente win this one today.
We really should see a close game here but Groningen have been such a force at home this season that I have to take them seriously for this one. They play good, attractive football and have some very good players in their team. They are missing midfielders, unfortunately, but Twente have absences too. Either way – Groningen are priced far too long at 2/1, in my view, so backing the hosts with draw no bet cover at 11/10 looks a decent value bet today.
Team news – Groningen miss Sparv, Van de Laak, and have doubts over Veldmate whereas Twente have doubts over Ruiz and Janssen.
Verdict: Groningen to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
VVV Venlo vs PSV Eindhoven – away win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
VVV have already lost eight out of ten home games in the Eredivisie this season, which is pure relegation form. Indeed, it’s the worst home record in the Eredivisie and I’ll be surprised if they avoid the dreaded drop if their form continues. They do manage to score a goal per home game on average but they also concede over two goals per home game on average, hence their predicament. They were a tad unfortunate to lose against Utrecht in their last match but when luck is against you, it’s against you in a big way. VVV miss important defender Fleuren and number one goalkeeper Gentenaar so things look to be going from bad to worse for VVV ahead of their clash with giants PSV today.
PSV have beaten VVV three times since VVV were promoted a few seasons ago and on each occasion, PSV have won by two goals or more. This is because they’re simply a very good side indeed. Ajax have been on a bit of a resurgance lately under de Boer but PSV are still the best side in the Netherlands by some distance. AZ Alkmaar don’t score enough goals and Twente don’t have the firepower so this title is very much PSV’s to lose, in my view. Toivonen is in the form of his life and hopefully that will have continued over the winter break as PSV will need him today. PSV’s away record this season isn’t outstanding due to conceding silly goals but they’re facing what I would call one of the worst sides in the Eredivisie so they really must show up here and capitalise on title rivals Twente potentially dropping points today so I expect a strong PSV display here.
There is worlds of difference between these two sides in terms of quality and it really should show by the final whistle. VVV have lost by two goals or more in four out of their last five home games in the Eredivisie so the best side in the Netherlands really shouldn’t struggle to attain that too. The only bit that concerns me is that there has been a long break and PSV may be a little rusty but I still think PSV really should win this game convincingly so my call is for PSV to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at decent odds of 4/5.
Team news – VVV miss Fleuren, Yoshida, Gentenaar, Linssen, Ofrany, and Uchebo whereas PSV only miss Reis.
Verdict: PSV Eindhoven to win with -1.5 goal handicap at 4/5.
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Ponferradina – home win at 4/5.
I feel sorry for Gimnastic. They’re a good side but they just don’t score goals and that is on the verge of costing them their place in the Segunda Liga. Defensively speaking, there isn’t a better home side in the Segunda Liga than today’s hosts so they must be treated with respect here rather than the usual observation of “They’re near the bottom of the table; they must be shit”. Gimnastic have only won twice at home this season due to not scoring enough goals but they have moved to resolve that issue by signing promising Basque striker Viguera on loan from Real Sociedad for the remainder of the season. I like Viguera and think he could be what Gimnastic needs so it’ll be interesting to see how that develops, especially as he’s already bagged once for Gimnastic since his move. Either way, Gimnastic have now won back-to-back games ahead of this match and thus bring good momentum into this game. They’ve kept two clean sheets along the way and their last home game resulted in a win against a good Real Valladolid side so Gimnastic are improving and if they’re scoring goals in addition to their strong defence then I personally rate Gimnastic as a top seven side and hopefully that will show today.
Newly-promoted Ponferradina are threatened with relegation due to the visitors not scoring enough goals. Ponferradina have lost six out of ten on the road this season as they’ve averaged conceding nearly two goals per away game as well as scoring just over a goal per every two away games, hence their issues. That in itself makes this trip tough for the visitors but some important absences (Candela in defence, Jonathan and Perez in midfield, and Saizar and Vega in attack) makes victory for the visitors here virtually impossible. Ponferradina not only need to be playing really well but they also need to have a full-strength side to get points in a game like this and I don’t see either of those characteristics in their favour today. Ponferradina’s goalscoring problems are likely to continue with two key strikers missing so this really is Gimnastic’s game to lose today.
As long as Gimnastic convert their chances then this game should end in a home win. The visitors will battle hard but lack firepower and miss some very important players today so I don’t see them penetrating arguably the best defence in the division. Therefore, I have to consider 4/5 on the home win to be good value today as Gimnastic are really in-form at the moment so that’s my call today!
Team news – Ponferradina miss Candela, Jonathan, Saizar, Suarez, Perez, Vega, and Queco Pina.
Verdict: Gimnastic de Tarragona to win at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Brazil U20, Wellington Phoenix, Anderlecht, AEK Larnaca, Olympiakos Piraeus, PSV Eindhoven, Real Madrid.
Recommended bets:
Ajax and PSV at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa Sudamericano U20:
Brazil vs Bolivia (9) -1.5 handicap, over 2.5 goals
Ecuador vs Paraguay (6) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory (8) over 2.5 goals
Central Coast Mariners vs Sydney FC (4) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht vs Standard de Liege (8) 2-0
AA Gent vs Lokeren (5) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Cypriot Division 1:
AEK Larnaca vs Alki Larnaca (8) 2-0
Apollon Limassol vs APOP/Kinyras (7) 2-1
Anorthosis Famagusta vs AEL Limassol (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
English Premier League:
Blackburn Rovers vs West Bromwich Albion (6) 2-1
English Championship:
Queens Park Rangers vs Coventry City (7) under 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga:
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Hoffenheim vs St.Pauli (5) 1-2, draw no bet
German Bundesliga 2:
Hertha BSC Berlin vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (5) under 2.5 goals
Greuther Furth vs Union Berlin (7)
FSV Frankfurt vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (7)
Greek Super League:
Kavala vs Iraklis (4) 1-1
Panserraikos vs Atromitos (6) 1-1
Ergotelis vs Aris Salonika (5) 1-0
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus (8) 1-2
Panionios vs Panathinaikos (7) under 2.5 goals
Italian Serie A:
Udinese vs Internazionale (6) over 2.5 goals
Chievo Verona vs Genoa (5) both sides to score
Sampdoria vs Juventus (5) 1-1
Bologna vs Lazio (4) 2-1
Fiorentina vs Lecce (6) 2-1
Bari vs SSC Napoli (5) 1-1
AC Milan vs Cesena (6) 2-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Toluca vs Jaguares (5) 2-1
Puebla vs Estudiantes Tecos (6) 1-1
America vs Tigres UANL (5) under 2.5 goals
Dutch Eredivisie:
FC Utrecht vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (7) under 2.5 goals
Roda JC Kerkrade vs Excelsior Rotterdam (6) over 2.5 goals
Groningen vs Twente Enschede (5) 2-1, draw no bet
VVV Venlo vs PSV Eindhoven (9) -1.5 handicap
Spanish Primera Liga:
Sporting Gijon vs Atletico Madrid (6) 1-1
Real Zaragoza vs Deportivo La Coruna (5) 1-0
Getafe vs Espanyol (5) 1-0
Almeria vs Osasuna (6) 2-1
Real Madrid vs Real Mallorca (9) -1.5 handicap
Villarreal CF vs Real Sociedad (7) over 2.5 goals, Llorente to score anytime
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Tenerife vs Las Palmas (5) at least one red card in this game
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Ponferradina (6)
Cordoba vs Girona (5)
Numancia vs Salamanca (7)
Turkish Super Lig
Kasimpasa vs Gaziantepspor (5) 1-1
Konyaspor vs Bursaspor (7) 1-2
Galatasaray vs Sivassapor (6) under 2.5 goals
Welsh Premier League:
Neath Athletic vs Prestatyn Town (7) over 2.5 goals
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Atletico El Vigia vs Zulia (5) 1-0
Carabobo vs Estudiantes de Merida (6) 1-0
Trujillanos vs Yaracuyanos (7) 1-0
Atletico Venezuela vs Monagas SC (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Deportivo Lara vs Aragua (6) 0-0
Mineros de Guayana vs Deportivo Petare (6) 0-1
Zamora vs Real Esppor Club (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!