TFT Issue 130!
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Toulon Tournament Reviews
Colombia vs Mexico
This one pretty much went to plan. Both sides created the odd chance but nothing particularly earth-shattering because Colombia don’t really have the power up front that Mexico do but they do have the midfield to support it and the defence to keep sides out whereas Mexico have talented attacking players but a weak defence. It took until the second-half for anything meaningful to happen and it was a great strike too, which made it 1-0 to Colombia. It was fairly inevitable that they’d progress from there because their defence has looked very solid in this tournament. Fairly inevitably, they scored a second goal as the game went on as the Mexicans attacked even more and that pretty much killed the game. It took a superb strike at the end of the game for Mexico to claw one back but aside from that, Colombia were rarely properly troubled, in my view. Mexico worked hard but their defence is and was too vulnerable and that has cost them in the end.
France vs Italy
This game didn’t go to plan, unfortunately. France didn’t show up for the game for large portions of it and Italy duly took advantage of it, bossing the midfield at times and really getting at France’s shoddy defence. However, it was the issue that I pointed out pre-game that destroyed Italy and that was not taking their chances. They’ve got the strikers and their pace and movement has impressed me a lot in this tournament already, as I’ve said. However, time and time again they miss easy chances and that was evident in this game, especially in the first-half. France weren’t really in the game until the second-half and they started to play some beautiful football in spells. Even in those brief periods, you could still tell it was France who were the better team overall. Still, football isn’t always kind to the better team and as the game wore on, it looked fairly destined for a draw at the eighty-minute mark because France weren’t on their game and Italy couldn’t hit a barn door. However, a piece of magic, a lovely one-two, and quite a poor but impressive finish from the very talented Monrose did the game. Unlike their Italian opponents, the French don’t miss their chances, which is why I’ve rated their displays in the tournament so far. France woke up then and really started to threaten Italy, being denied a stonewall penalty towards the end for handball. However, Italy also pressed more and were guilty of missing one of the easiest chances in the tournament as the second-half drew to a close. What basically happened was that the French defence were shepherding the ball back to their goalkeeper and the Italian striker that was chasing got around his man and got a shot away but the French goalkeeper was alert and blocked it on the edge of the eighteen-yard box. However, as he started to run back toward his goal, another Italian picked up the ball and played it straight to one of the Italian strikers, who was totally unmarked in the box, leaving him (I’m fairly sure it was Paloschi) one-on-one with the retreating goalkeeper and with two defenders stood behind their goalkeeper on the line – nobody else was even close. I had to take my hat off to the French goalkeeper – he used his brain and immediately leapt at the striker’s feet and did well, for my money. He was unlucky though; the ball squirmed past him, still at the striker’s feet. By my reckoning, he was about 80% guaranteed to score if he hit the target but after a sharp swivel, he unbelievably struck the ball wide with the goal gaping and that really is what cost the Italians in this game – poor finishing. Hats off to the French, though – not a highly-polished display but they yet again demonstrate why they’ll probably win the tournament – they take their chances. It wasn’t the game I expected, ultimately, but it was the result I expected and for the reasons I expected so I’m pretty content overall.
Featured game
JJK Jyvaskyla vs VPS Vaasa – home win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga encounter in the valley of a thousand lakes between impressive JJK Jyvaskyla and mid-table dwellers VPS Vaasa. The hosts may have had some luck in the current campaign but it can’t really be argued that they’re anything but the superior of these two sides here.
JJK have played three home games in the current campaign and they’ve won all of them. They’d only beaten poor sides until beating bitter rivals KuPS Kuopio 2-0 in the derby in their last Veikkausliiga home game but they’re again demonstrating their strength by scoring goals. Remarkably, all of this incisive finishing has been done without Wusu, which is beyond surprising to me. Old hand Hyyrynen and strike partner Kari have been excellent so far, bagging six goals between them. Most importantly, however, Manninen and Gruborovics in midfield have been excellent, providing a constant outlet of creativity and even goals. Hell, that’s not even including youngster Markula, who has done more than his fair share for the JJK team. Defensively, JJK have a lot to learn but in front of goal, this side is one of the top four sides in the country for my money. Sure, they lost 6-2 at HJK last match but anyone that was surprised by HJK winning that game comfortably is an idiot. I didn’t have 6-2 marked out as a scoreline for that game, admittedly, but HJK have dominated everyone they’ve faced at home this season; all they lacked was taking their chances. It was inevitable it would change at somepoint and it just so happened to be against high-flying JJK who were perhaps a tad complacent and their dodgy defence was ripped to shreds, especially in the full-back areas. However, there are some sides in this division that JJK are a lot better than and VPS are one of them, for me.
I’ve mentioned before that I don’t rate VPS away from home and that is still the case here. They counter-attack quite well sometimes but they don’t have enough goals in them to play well away from home. They’re a defensive side and they’re actually quite good at it when it suits them but away from home, it’s pretty much time to count on Bernthardt and see what he can produce. Well, that and their set pieces, in which he usually has a large say anyway! VPS could nick a goal from a set piece here because JJK’s defence isn’t the best so don’t be surprised if they do score. However, outscoring JJK is a task that really is beyond them. I admired how well VPS did at home to IFK Mariehamn last match when I tipped them to win. They did exactly what I expected and even more, to be honest, as they were guilty of missing some gilt-edged chances. Nonetheless, they took their points as VPS often do at home and you won’t see me backing many sides to beat them in Vaasa this season. However, you’ll see me going against VPS a lot of times when they’re away from home and today is no exception. VPS have already lost three out of four away games in the Veikkausliiga this season and it’s not the sides they’ve faced that has concerned me but the manner of their defeats. Losing at Inter Turku when Furuholm is in-form is more than acceptable; I don’t mind excluding that one from their away losses. However, the 2-0 loss at Jaro saw VPS do very little to Jaro during the game and they lost a game they could have drawn had they attacked a little better. They lost 2-1 at KuPS Kuopio during their last trip to this area of Finland in a game that they probably deserved to lose by not attacking well enough. On the first day of the season, they drew 0-0 with Ykkonen-bound Haka Valkeakoski because they didn’t attack well enough. Conclusion? They’re not attacking enough away from home and their biggest problem with that is that they’re not good enough to be consistently scoring goals with sporadic counter-attacks, hence their predicament.
So, as I said – VPS may score a goal here. Hell, if the sun’s shining, they may even score two. However, I don’t see them outscoring JJK nor even matching them because JJK’s firepower is far superior to theirs. I fully expect JJK to bounce back from their drubbing at HJK as it was a needed reality check for the high-flying outfit and they’ve got the personnel to do it. For me, JJK being priced at 4/5 to win this game is hilariously good value as they should be around 6/10 or 7/10 to win this, in my view.
Verdict: JJK Jyvaskyla to win at 4/5.
Additional games
FC Honka Espoo vs HJK Helsinki – home win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Looking at these pre-match odds, you can tell a lot of people don’t watch Finnish football very much!
Yeah, HJK are a good deal better than Honka this season and yeah, they will finish above them, and yeah, they will win the league!
However, HJK are crap away from home. I don’t know why they can’t show up on the road but they don’t score anywhere near enough chances away from home. They went to a disjointed and unfamiliar TPS Turku on the opening day of the Veikkausliiga – they lost 2-0, and deservedly so, too. They followed that up with a 0-2 win at VPS Vaasa but VPS had their fair share of chances and only two late, late goals won the game for HJK with Sorsa cutting VPS apart down the right from a counter-attack and the last goal coming from VPS heads dropping. HJK’s display was not impressive, however. HJK followed that game up with a trip to Aland to face IFK Mariehamn and they were outfought and outscored by the islanders with HJK guilty of missing the chances they managed to create. It’s the same story for HJK every time – they’ll beat everyone at home this season, barring the odd freak result that happens from time to time, but they’ll be crap away from home and irrespective of the gap between themselves and Honka, they’re still facing what is widely considered to be the second-best team in Finland and despite persistently poor away displays, HJK are somehow favourites here? Can I get a “wtf?”
Honka have made me some money this season because they’ve been crap in defence. Truth is that they’ve been crap in defence for ages; that wasn’t really the issue. The issue was that they weren’t scoring enough goals as it was new signing Dudu carrying the team whilst Savage was out. The two of them in the same team, however – that causes major problems in opposing defences. Just look how Honka have played since his “proper” return – they won 0-2 at KuPS Kuopio and it could have been a lot more, too. They’ve not had an ideal campaign thus far, Honka, but they’re very good at home and they have some immensely talented strikers. I’d genuinely back Honka with draw no bet at 6/5 against any side in Finland when playing in Espoo because those odds are ridiculously long for a side this good!
These two sides tend to play out games with plenty of goals and this one may well be added to that list. However, I really would be surprised to see HJK win this one unless they produce a miraculously good away display, the likes of which they simply have not shown this season. People are underestimating Honka at the moment and also overestimating HJK, most likely due to their recent 6-2 win, both of which set us up rather nicely for a “shock” here. It’s not a banker by any stretch of the imagination but I really fancy Honka to do HJK some damage here.
Oh, and one more thing – HJK have failed to beat Honka in their last nine Veikkausliiga meetings and in Espoo, Honka have won two out of their last three Veikkausliiga games against HJK. It should be an interesting game!
Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Inter Turku vs Haka Valkeakoski – home win with -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
I’m not really sure this one requires a preview, to be honest. If Furuholm isn’t in-form then I leave this and maybe take a sly under 2.5 goals approach because Haka will come to Turku to defend as that’s all they can do with any kind of ability. However, Furuholm is playing really well and is fresh following his surprise omission from the Finnish national team despite his excellent Veikkausliiga displays. He’s destroyed all defences that have faced him this season, barring in the HJK game for obvious reasons, and has scored and created a lot of goals by doing so. With Dragtsma’s expect tactical approach and Furuholm’s top form, Inter Turku should walk all over Haka here. Haka had a lot of absentees before the winter break but I’ve not been able to find out how many of them are still missing, unfortunately. Truth be told, I’m not too concerned because their side is full of average players with perhaps one or two exceptions. Haka might nick a set piece off Inter Turku if they’re lucky but if Furuholm shows up then Inter Turku score at least twice here. For me, there’s value in Inter Turku -1.5 at 6/5.
Verdict: Inter Turkub to beat the -1.5 handicap at 6/5.