TFT Issue 147!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Syrianska Sodertalje vs IFK Goteborg – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan encounter between Syrianska Sodertalje and IFK Goteborg. Newly-promoted side versus a Swedish heavyweight should yield a convincing away win, no? I’m not so sure.
Importantly, Syrianska welcome back Ristic here, who holds their defence together. They’re not a great side, Syrianska, but they need their best players available to make a good fight and Ristic is amongst their best. However, that remains the only good news ahead of this game for Syrianska as the bad far, far outweights the good. Syrianska’s attack solely comes from giving old hand Ijeh the ball up front and either allowing him to hold it up, flick it on, or finish off a move. I mean, they’ve got Felic too but Ijeh is the one who makes things happen with his great experience. However, Syrianska miss both of them today, which is a huge blow. However, it gets worse, as influential attacking midfielder Barsom also misses out today. The ex-Djurgarden player is injured and now joins fellow midfield regulars Massi, Kunic, and Arneng, although most of them have been out for the vast majority of the current campaign anyway. However, that presents a huge issue for the hosts in creating chances and now that they’re missing players to actually score their chances too, you have to rate their chances of even scoring today as very slender indeed, in my view. Nonetheless, they do have an artificial pitch and that does work to their advantage sometimes so I won’t rule them scoring out entirely.
Visitors IFK Goteborg have had their usual mixed campaign, ranging from brilliant to horrendous displays in just a few games. They’ve got arguably the best attacker in Sweden in Tobias Hysen and he’s basically what has kept them going in the last few years as nobody else consistently scores for them. However, Hysen is ill and misses out today, which is a massive blow for the visitors. Additionally, emerging young striker Barkroth, who has featured a lot for them this season, is also absent today. It gets worse for IFK Goteborg, however, with old hand Selakovic and playmaker Eriksson both absent too, who are both integral to their midfield. They are fortunate to welcome back captain Johansson into defence from his injury and he should stabilise their defence but their attack is virtually non-existant today. I’ve yet to see an IFK Goteborg display of any substance when Hysen hasn’t played and I think we’ll see the same again today against their battling hosts.
Helpfully, the superior of the two sides – IFK Goteborg – really struggle on artificial turf. Take a lot at their most recent results on artificial turf:
2008 – Orebro 4 IFK Goteborg 2
2009 – Elfsborg Boras 2 IFK Goteborg 0
2009 – Gefle 0 IFK Goteborg 3
2009 – Orebro 0 IFK Goteborg 0
2010 – Gefle 0 IFK Goteborg 0
2010 – Elfsborg Boras 1 IFK Goteborg 1
2010 – Orebro 2 IFK Goteborg 1
2011 – Gefle 1 IFK Goteborg 0
One win in eight games, failing to score in four games, and losing four times. It’s not good and it’s not coincidental, either – artificial turf is very hard to play on if you’re not used to it. Given how many players they’re missing here and given that their hosts are also missing a whole array of attacking talent, under 2.5 goals looks a real bargain at 3/4 here.
Team news – Syrianska Sodertalje miss Barsom, Felic, Ijeh, Massi, Sleyman, Arneng, and Kunic whereas IFK Goteborg miss Eriksson, Hysen, Barkroth, Allansson, and Selakovic.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Additional games
PoPa Pori vs OPS Oulu – home win with draw no bet at 9/10.
Sexy odds!! That’s all I can say here!
PoPa have made me a lot of money this season by being predictably poor as they missed…well, all of their defence, really! They missed all of their defence for some weeks and their results show it, too. However, barring Viljanen, they’re at full-strength now and what people tend to forget is that PoPa are a top five team when they want to be. I’ll admit that their morale won’t be sky-high for obvious reasons but with quality midfielders like Dema and attackers like Makela, this side is very much capable of scoring goals and winning games so I expect them to start improving very soon indeed, especially with only Viljanen out. Their Ykkonen league placing is not reflective of how good they can actually be so I’m going to try and take advantage of that today.
OPS Oulu have remained the same average team that they were last season but with one rather key difference; Anderson. He’s really added a cutting edge to their attack and they actually occasionally look dangerous when going forward nowadays. However, don’t let that fool you – they’re still an average team and although they’re hard workers, they’re still not a great threat, in my view. Their “purple patch” is over and done with; they’ve lost three out of their last four games and drawn the other encounter. Morale is getting low and despite them not conceding many, they’re still not scoring enough to take sufficient points off their opponents. I therefore think they’ll struggle against a reborn PoPa Pori today.
There’s risk in this bet; of course there is. The hosts may produce another uninspired display in front of goal and that could cost them. However, I’d be very surprised to see them lose this game so taking the home win with draw no bet cover at generous odds of 9/10 really appeals to me today, especially as I rate PoPa as being considerably better than OPS Oulu. Additionally, OPS Oulu miss regular defender Jibrin and regular attackers Kainu and Juntunen today, which are all sizable blows, especially Jibrin.
Team news: PoPa Pori have doubts over Viljanen whereas OPS Oulu miss Kainu, Juntunen, and Jibrin.
Verdict: PoPa Pori to win with draw no bet at 9/10.
AC Oulu vs Jippo Joensuu – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
I like this one a lot today. AC Oulu are the strongest side in the Ykkonen without a shadow of a doubt but there’s something of a question mark over their ability to put the ball in the net since they lost the creativity of Yobe back in December. Helpfully, they signed Albanian attacker Stafsula and he’s been immense, bagging seven goals in nine appearances for today’s hosts this season. Edwini-Bonsu has contributed, as has veteran Mika Nurmela from the flank, but Stafsula is the top dog here and they know it. Unfortunately for the hosts, he misses out today (and for the next few weeks, apparently) as his brother is getting married back in his native Albania so he won’t be playing today, which causes the hosts big, big problems here. I’ve no doubts whatsoever over their ability to keep the ball and keep their opponents out but as far as scoring goals goes – I’m just not convinced today.
Coincidentally, they happen to be facing the most stubborn side in the Ykkonen today so things don’t bode too well for the hosts. Seriously, Jippo might be a side that battles against relegation each season but that’s through not scoring goals. Ask any Finn who watches the Ykkonen as to which side is the hardest to play against and I guarantee that most will say Jippo. Admittedly, they’re twice as hard in Joensuu than they are away from home but their compact and well-organised side is a nightmare to break through (think KooTeePee Kotka from the Veikkausliiga a few years ago) and that’s an exception for no side in this division. Jippo have only lost twice in six away games this season because of the afore-mentioned information and you can see how strong they are at the back based on the fact that the only sides to concede less than they have this season are in the top half of the table. Hell, only the current top three teams have lost less games than Jippo have this season so you can see what I mean.
Six out of Jippo’s last eight games have gone under 2.5 goals and now that they welcome back Maattanen into defence after suspension, they look set to be even more of a pain than normal. For me, this game is a good “under 2.5 goals” shout at 9/10 today.
Team news – AC Oulu miss Stafsula and have doubts over Ojala and Majava.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Klaipeda vs Dainava – under 2.5 goals at 7/5.
I appreciate that both of these two sides occasionally produce what I would call “anomaly” results by going over 2.5 goals but in reality, both are very much under 2.5 goals sides. Klaipeda are arguably more adventurous than Dainava but they’re simply not a good attacking side, hence scoring just three home goals in the A Lyga this season. Dainava are very much the battlers of the division and no side likes facing them, to be honest. They’re much harder to defeat at home than they are away but they’re still an absolute nightmare as they constantly close the ball down and stop other sides playing football. They won’t have much joy against the likes of Ekranas Panevezys and Suduva Marijampole for obvious reasons but they’re more than capable of stopping a poor Klaipeda side today. This is a game that neither side can afford to lose and given how the two sides usually play football, under 2.5 goals looks very generously priced today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 7/5.
FBK Kaunas vs Mazeikiai – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
This game is very similar to the above although Kaunas are undoubtedly a lot worse in front of goal than Klaipeda are and Mazeikiai aren’t as good as Dainava. Nonetheless, these two sides play bizarrely similar styles of football to the two sides above and I subsequently expect the same from them today – under 2.5 goals. Neither side is a great threat in front of goal and the hosts are particularly stubborn at home so my call is under 2.5 goals at 9/10 here.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.