TFT Issue 175!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia – over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Today’s featured game is the A PFG derby between Lokomotiv Sofia and CSKA Sofia. I half-hoped the bookies didn’t truly acknowledge the gulf that is opening up as Lokomotiv fall behind their city rivals but they sadly do – well, in some markets.
Like all derbies, this is likely to be a feisty affair and cards may occur. However, I still cannot see anything but a CSKA win today. Lokomotiv’s attack is still rather frail against good sides and their defence is as vulnerable as ever. However, it’s far, far worse than that for Lokomotiv today as their two essential defenders Savic and Dyakov both miss out here. Effectively, the chances of Lokomotiv keeping a clean sheet here are about the same as you being able to fly by the end of this preview. Now, Lokomotiv do have some ex-CSKA players in their ranks, the most notable of which is striker Saidhodzha. The frontman reportedly still wants to prove a point to his former employers as he believes they didn’t really give him chance to show his potential so don’t be surprised if he scores a goal today. Lokomotiv’s midfield and defence pales in comparison to mighty CSKA Sofia, however, and the away win really should be a given here.
CSKA Sofia’s firepower was their problem last season. I had no faith in them because of it, basically. Spas Delev is a good attacker but he needed someone else to take their share of the attacking burden. Happily, CSKA identified that problem and addressed by signing very talented attacker Zicu from Poli Timisoara and Brazilian striker Moraes from Metalurg Donetsk. Both are experienced players and Zicu is exceptionally good at both creating and scoring chances. CSKA Sofia were impressive in their 1-3 demolition of Litex Lovech’s second string in the Super Cup Final and should bring that momentum into this game. They’ve no European commitments just yet so their focus is entirely on this game and they really should win this one easily.
The defence of both sides leaves a lot to be desired and that’s show in recent years with four consecutive meetings going over 2.5 goals. CSKA should win this one at a canter and may even beat the -1.5 handicap but for me, the value is in over 2.5 goals at 3/4 as the visitors have lots of firepower and momentum and the hosts have a few ex-CSKA players keen to take revenge in the derby. Lastly, Lokomotiv should tire easily in this game – they played 120 minutes against Slask Wroclaw earlier this week in the UEFA Europa League before crashing out of the tournament on penalties.
Team news – Lokomotiv Sofia miss Savic and Dyakov.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Additional games
MyPa Anjalankoski vs TPS Turku – home win with draw no bet at 9/10.
I don’t like backing MyPa as a rule but I feel compelled to do so here. They still miss regular defender Aho and midfield general Okkonen here but they’re in better shape than TPS Turku, to be blunt. MyPa’s displays have at least been consistent over the past month or two with more chances being created and a better standard of football being played. Russian striker Votinov has improved their threat in front of goal and even Innanen is showing signs of his old self, too. MyPa look much more of a unit than they did earlier this season and three wins from their past five games indicates that very well indeed. Indeed, MyPa have actually won four consecutive home games if you take out the two defeats against reigning champions HJK Helsinki so they’re a side to take seriously today.
TPS Turku’s depth that I liked about them earlier this season is beginning to fall apart though, and that is a problem. Defensive midfielder N’Galula has been sold and now plays his football in Belgium, which is where the ex-Manchester United man started, if I recall correctly. Additionally, experienced striker Tarvajarvi’s loan deal has expired and he will no longer play at TPS Turku. Now, you can point out that Kuqi and Aaritalo have been the main combination up front for TPS Turku this season and you’d be right. However, when one of them is absent, TPS Turku have problems and with Kuqi suspended today, it then becomes a problem. I rate Aaritalo really highly – he’s the only reason I’ve taken draw no bet cover here, to be honest – but he needs some support up there. How much of an impact will playmaker Kolehmainen have now that N’Galula isn’t behind him too? That’s another factor to consider. Lastly, essential defender Heinikangas is absent for the visitors today so even goal-shy MyPa should be able to bag a goal or two here.
Add the above up and the home win with draw no bet at 9/10 is very appealing.
Team news – MyPa Anjalankoski miss Koljonen, Aho, Anttilainen, and Okkonen whereas TPS Turku miss Kuqi and Heinikangas.
Verdict: MyPa Anjalankoski to win with draw no bet at 9/10.
IFK Mariehamn vs VPS Vaasa – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 7/5.
I love backing IFK in Aland because they’re just a completely different side at home compared to when they’re away. They play with belief and vigour at home and just look sort of depressed when playing away from home!
IFK wouldn’t be IFK without their traditional injury problems, of course. As per usual, their defence is not 100% and this time it’s because de Abreu is injured. Attacking midfielder Emet misses out, which is a blow but Forsell should bear the banner pretty well by himself in a game like this anyway. Aside from that, IFK are pretty much at full-strength and this is the kind of game that I expect Kangaskolkka to demonstrate his ability up front. IFK are always strong at home and they should be yet again here with a decent squad available to them.
A large portion of my confidence comes from VPS Vaasa’s absentees, however, as per usual! Defensive stalwart Tanska is out for the season, as you may recall. That’s a huge blow in itself but now that defensive partners Koskimaa and Woodbine are both out too, that basically leaves VPS Vaasa with zero chance of being able to use their most prominent strength; defence. Hilariously, regular midfielder Bjork and Hietaharju are big doubts for this game, as is defensive midfielder Koskela. These are all huge, huge blows for VPS Vaasa and given that goalscoring isn’t (and has never been) their forté, I think that they’re in real trouble today.
Summarised; if IFK take their chances, VPS are going to get taken to school today. Ergo the -1 Asian Handicap at 7/5 holds massive appeal to me here.
Team news – IFK Mariehamn miss Emet, Ingves, Markus Paatelainen, Mikko Paatelainen, Olesen, and de Abreu whereas VPS Vaasa miss Koskimaa, Koskela, Tanska, and Woodbine whilst having doubts over Hietaharju and Bjork.
Verdict: IFK Mariehamn to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 7/5.
RoPS Rovaniemi vs Haka Valkeakoski – under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
This unders call has long odds because it’s in Finland and Finland isn’t a fan of under 2.5 goals games, as any follower of the league will tell you.
However, if any are to go under 2.5 goals then this is the game for it. Both sides are atrocious in front of goal and I still can’t accept the short odds on Haka winning this game. RoPS have their absences and are playing terribly, it’s true, but Haka aren’t much better themselves, in my view. RoPS have scored more than one goal in just one home game in the Veikkausliiga this season and it was Inter Turku’s atrocious defending in that game that assisted them to those three goals. RoPS don’t score many at home because they’re a poor goalscoring side, basically. Rivera is a threat but nobody else is on a consistent basis. Ojamaa looked useful on his debut in Turku earlier this week but it’s nothing to get excited about just yet. Essential attacking midfielder Muinonen misses out for RoPS today – that means they’ll create about three chances in the whole game, as a rough estimate! American defender Tabe is suspended – that means they’ll probably not keep a clean sheet too, even with Gotzl back there. Calamitous goalkeeper Nyom is never to be relied upon and RoPS are frankly capable of losing this game, to be honest.
However, I will not stake money on Haka to win away from home – it goes against all logic. Haka don’t score goals either and although they’re playing better football than RoPS right now, they’re still not a good side. I suppose you could argue that Haka have more players that can make things happen than RoPS with Weckstrom and Robinson in midfield and Metzger up front but there’s still little in it. However, Haka’s game is affected by absences too with regular midfielder Koroma out so that could have a detrimental affect on their game, especially on a tough artificial pitch in Rovaniemi – yet another reason to avoid the 1×2 market.
However, the under 2.5 goals market being priced at 6/5 is something that interests me a lot here. Both sides are dogged and hard-working but neither has the firepower to consistently take this game into over 2.5 goals. At 6/5, under 2.5 goals is definitely worth a flutter here.
Team news – RoPS Rovaniemi miss Tabe, Muinonen, Qerimi, and Grohn whereas Pirinen, Koroma, and Ojala are missing for Haka Valkeakoski.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
FC Lahti vs AC Oulu – over 2.5 goals at evens.
The two best sides in the Ykkonen lock horns here and I’m expecting plenty of goals. AC Oulu are the more defensively assured of the two sides and on statistics alone, you could be forgiven for thinking that this was more of an under 2.5 goals game. However, I don’t view things that way and I certainly don’t view this game that way either. Since the return of Albania hitman Stafsula, AC Oulu have rediscovered their form and drive, battering PoPa Pori 4-0 in a scintillating display. AC Oulu function properly with their leading goalscorer back and that makes them more of a threat in this game than the statistics show as he’s been back in Albania at his brother’s wedding for a month. Personally, I rate AC Oulu as being better than FC Lahti right now although the difference is quality is minimal at most. FC Lahti’s star striker Rafael is back to full fitness and that has improved their potency too, naturally. Both sides are goalscoring sides and both sides are the only ones capable of damaging the other on a consistent basis so I think we have a good basis for this game going over 2.5 goals, especially as three points are rather essential for the visitors if the promotion dream is to remain alive. Additionally, essential defender Miranda is absent for FC Lahti, which leaves space for AC Oulu to operate in.
Team news – FC Lahti miss Turunen, Eerola, and Miranda whilst Backman is a doubt whereas AC Oulu miss Pennanen and Monenen.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Zagiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
If this game was in Vilnius then it’s a no bet as the fairly average Zalgiris Vilnius are dominant there and all sides struggle to win there. However, this game is being played at a neutral venue in Kaunas and that gives Suduva Marijampole the opportunity to claim a much-needed three points here. Zalgiris don’t score goals away from Vilnius but Suduva do away from Marijampole because they have more options in attack and are frankly a better team. Suduva have had problems lately but this rivalry match is the ideal opportunity for them to get back on their feet, in my view. I expect Zalgiris to line up defensively, as ever, but I can see Suduva breaking through eventually. I expect a tight scoreline but the away win for the superior side with draw no bet cover being priced at 11/10 is very appealing here.
Verdict: Suduva Marijampole to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Shkendija 79 vs 11 Oktomvri – lay Shkendija 79 at 13/5.
This tip has the same basis as yesterday’s Sileks Kratovo vs Renova Dzepciste tip in that most of Shkendija 79’s players are Muslim and ergo they cannot eat between 5am and 7pm, which makes playing football very hard due to a lack of energy, strength, and stamina. Almost all of the attack of Shkendija 79 will face that problem today and it’s really going to make it hard for them, just as we saw with Renova yesterday. Shkendija may be reigning champions but this is not an easy game. Newly-promoted 11 Oktomvri have assembled a reasonably experienced side and a side that is proving hard to break down. With big question marks over the fitness of Shkendija’s players, laying the hosts at a very generous 13/5 looks a good fun bet for today.
Verdict: Lay Shkendija 79 at 13/5.
ADO Den Haag vs Vitesse Arnhem – lay ADO Den Haag at 4/5.
Ah, terribly short odds on ADO Den Haag – last season syndrome much!
ADO Den Haag were terrific last season, it has to be said. A small club playing with such fire and goalscoring threat was a refreshing change and I enjoyed watching them, to be honest. However, the core of that style was boss Van Den Brom, who is no longer with ADO Den Haag and it’s shown in their displays, too. The hunger is still there but the cohesion isn’t and subsequently, they’re conceding a lot of silly goals without compensating for it at the other end. Happily, essential Belgian defender Derijck is absent today, which means there’s not a hope in hell that ADO Den Haag will keep a clean sheet today. With the persistent rumours that Verhoek is leaving still circling, you have to wonder if he’ll be at his best here. ADO Den Haag have played a lot of games lately – I wonder if we’ll see some tiredness creeping in?
Vitesse Arnhem have been immaculate in their warm-up for the Eredivisie and with the amount of money spent on their team, it’s no surprise that that’s the case. I must confess that I was surprised when I saw Albert Ferrer had left his post as Vitesse boss – they played some lovely football under him. However, I guess the guys at Arnhem wanted a more experienced Eredivisie boss so that’s what they got. But who did they bring in? You have to smile – they brough in Van Der Brom from ADO Den Haag and guess who his first official game in charge is against? Yes – it’s against the team that he built! Football is funny sometimes, isn’t it? Now, Vitesse’s big problem this season is going to be experience as their eldest player is twenty-eight year old Nick Hofs in midfield. However, what they lack in experience they make up for in talent with Wilfried and Pedersen up front and the likes of Ibarra behind them. They’re not good at defending on the road, Vitesse, but they are a good goalscoring side and should be even better with attack-minded Van Der Brom as boss.
For me, the hosts are way too short here. They massively over-achieved last season and will be brought back down to earth with a bang this season. Van Der Brom knows his old team very well and how to exploit them. The hosts miss their best defender. Vitesse miss talented midfielder Buttner and hot prospect Pedersen for this game, which are blows. I still rate Vitesse’s depth more than I do ADO Den Haag’s “headless chicken” tactics so laying the hosts at 4/5 is very appealing here.
Team news – ADO Den Haag miss N’Toko, Visser, Mulders, and Derijck whereas Vitesse Arnhem miss Buttner, Snijders, van Diermen, Pedersen, Velthuizen, and Ibarra.
Verdict: Lay ADO Den Haag at 4/5.
Team news
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Sint-Truiden – Andrade and Volders are absent. Rymenants returns.
Club Brugge – Stenman and Van Ghijseghem are absent. Zimling and Hoefkens set for a recall after being rested in Azerbaijan mid-week.
Standard de Liege – Opare, Berrier, and Cyriac are absent.
Lokeren – No absentees.
Westerlo – Cabeke, Cardoso, and Vanaudenaerde are absent.
Kortrijk – Nfor is absent. Chavarria likely to make debut.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Litex Lovech – Sandrinho is absent.
Beroe – Stankovic is absent whilst Tanev and Valkanov are doubts.
Lokomotiv Sofia – Dyakov and Savic are absent.
CSKA Sofia – No absentees.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Mlada Boleslav – No news.
Slovacko – Volesak is absent.
Sparta Prague – No listed absentees.
Jablonec – Krajcik, Haurdic, Novak, Elias, Jarolim, and Vosahlik are absent.
Bohemians 1905 – No news.
Viktoria Plzen – Cisovskiy is absent.
English Championship:
West Ham United – Brown is absent.
Cardiff City – No listed absentees.
English Community Shield:
Manchester United – Carrick and Hernandez are absent and there are doubts over Rafael da Silva and Fletcher.
Manchester City – Tevez is absent and there are doubts over Aguero.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
MyPa Anjalankoski – Koljonen, Aho, Anttilainen, and Okkonen are absent.
TPS Turku – Kuqi and Heinikangas are absent, Tarvajarvi’s loan deal ended, N’Galula has been sold.
FC Honka Espoo – Bjors and Lehtinen are absent.
KuPS Kuopio – Vilmunen, Balogh, Ollo, Oravainen, Hynynen, and Nwakaeme are absent.
RoPS Rovaniemi – Tabe, Muinonen, Qerimi, and Grohn are absent.
Haka Valkeakoski – Pirinen, Koroma, and Ojala are absent.
IFK Mariehamn – Emet, Ingves, Markus Paatelainen, Mikko Paatelainen, Olesen, and de Abreu are absent.
VPS Vaasa – Koskimaa, Koskela, Tanska, and Woodbine are absent whilst having doubts over Hietaharju and Bjork.
Finnish Ykkonen:
FC Espoo – Rochier is a doubt.
KPV Kokkola – Khidesheli is absent and Lyyski is a doubt.
KooTeePee Kotka – Kvist is absent and Tugushi has left the club.
Hameenlinna – Makela and Verno are absent.
FC Lahti – Turunen, Eerola, and Miranda are absent whereas Backman is doubtful.
AC Oulu – Monenen is absent and Pennanen is a doubt.
German Bundesliga:
Mainz 05 – No absentees.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Adler, Oczipka, and Barnetta are absent.
Bayern Munich – Robben and Neuer are absent.
Borussia Moenchengladbach – Idrissou is unlikely to feature.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Kecskemeti TE – No absentees.
Debreceni VSC – Simac is a doubt.
Ujpest – Feher and Kabat are absent.
Paksi SE – No absentees.
Ferencvaros – No absentees.
Pecsi MFC – Palkowicz, Regedi, and Demjen Gabor are absent.
Irish Premier League:
Dundalk – Osborne, McDonnell, and Harkins are absent. Byrne back for selection.
Sligo Rovers – Keane and Mcguinness are absent.
St.Patrick’s Athletic – No team news available.
UCD – No absentees.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Siauliai – Rymavicius is absent.
Dainava – No news.
Tauras Taurage – No news other than no stadium atm – constantly borrowing someone else’s.
Ekranas Panevezys – No absentees.
Zalgiris Vilnius – No absentees.
Suduva Marijampole – No absentees.
Macedonian First League:
Shkendija 79 – No actual absentees but many muslims in this team that are affected by Ramadan Karee, which means the vast majority of their players cannot eat between 5am and 7pm, naturally weakening their stamina, strength, and energy levels.
11 Oktomrvi – No absentees.
Dutch Eredivisie:
AZ Alkmaar – Wernbloom, Didliuca, and Romero are absent.
PSV Eindhoven – Hutchinson, Reis, Wuytens, and Labyad are absent.
De Graafschap – de Leeuw and Nabantoglu are absent.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Ozbiliz, Vertonghen, and El Hamdaoui are absent.
ADO Den Haag – N’Toko, Visser, Mulders, and Derijck are absent.
Vitesse Arnhem – Buttner, Snijders, van Diermen, Pedersen, Velthuizen, and Ibarra are absent.
NAC Breda – Zonneveld is absent.
Twente Enschede – Douglas, Chadli, Kuiper, and Rosales are absent whereas Ruiz is a doubt.
Norwegian Elitserien:
Aalesund FK – Johnsen and Andersson are absent.
Odd Grenland Skien – Rorvik, Herrera, and Phillips are absent. Worth noting both sides use artificial turf so Aalesund’s usual advantage is removed here.
Brann Bergen – Saevarsson doubtful.
Stromsgodset – Hanssen, Stubhaug, and Rhoden are absent.
Lillestrom – Eziodawe absent and Kippe doubtful.
Sarpsborg 08 – Henanger, Hoas, and Jusufi absent.
Viking Stavanger – Ingelsten and Sigurdsson absent.
Tromso – Koppinen and Yttegard Jensen are absent.
Valerenga Oslo – Haestad, Dos Santos, and Boyacke absent. Stoor doubtful. Shelton sold.
Sogndal – Hovland, Elvis, and Kader absent.
Rosenborg BK – Goa, Dorsin, Fredheim Holm, and Jamtfall absent. Hoilad and Asen doubtful.
Molde FK – Stensild and Steen absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa
Slask Wroclaw – R.Gikiewicz, L.Gikiewicz, Kazmierczak, Wolczek, Fojut, and Lukasiewicz are all absent.
LKS Lodz – Smolinski is a doubt. New manager in charge for his first game.
Cracovia Krakow – Visniakovs is absent. Bartczak and Niedzieland are doubts.
Legia Warsaw – Kucharczyk is absent. Choto and Ohayon are doubts.
Polish Liga 1:
Kolejarz Stroze – No listed absences.
Flota Swinoujscie – Long trip to Stroze. Rygielski and Uszalewski are absent. Paczkowski, Tomasik, and Chyla are doubts.
Sandecja Nowy Sacz – No listed absentees. Duric set to debutise.
Arka Gdynia – Plotka, Kuklis, and Mazurkiewicz are all absent. Jarun is a doubt.
Wisla Plock – No listed absentees.
Nieciecza – Mysona and Czerwinski are absent.
Russian Premier League:
Amkar Perm’ – No absentees.
FK Krasnodar – Martynovch and Shipitsin are absent.
Spartak Nal’chik – No absentees.
Rubin Kazan’ – Ansaldi is absent.
Terek Grozny – Omelyanchuk is absent.
Spartak Moscow – Rodriguez, Ananide, and Kozlov are absent.
Lokomotiv Moscow – No absentees.
Krylya Sovetov Samara – No absentees.
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen – Jack, Clark, Mawene, and Fyvie are absent.
Celtic – Loovens, Rogne, Wilson, and Brown are absent.
Motherwell – Higdon is a doubt.
Hearts – Elliott, Webster, Taouil, Kyle, and Elliot are absent whilst Obua and Zaliukas are doubtful.
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Nafta Lendava – No listed absentees.
Olimpija Ljubljana – Sretenovic is absent.