TFT Issue 183!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Flora Tallinn vs Levadia Tallinn – home win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Meistriliiga derby between reigning champions Flora and bitter rivals Levadia. Over the years, this has been one of the better derbies to bet in with action surrounding each one (i.e. big departures) and the bookies not usually knowing about it.
There’s not been any big news prior to this game, for a change, but I still feel that the bookies have priced the Flora Tallinn win incorrectly. I’ve mentioned enough times the sheer enormity of the players Levadia lost pre-season and it’s shown, if you follow the Meistriliiga closely enough to see how. I suppose you could look at Levadia’s goalscoring record and say that averaging scoring two goals per game is a good ratio and I’d agree with that. However, in Estonia, that’s quite a small amount of goals for a big club and the fact that four sides have scored more goals than they have speaks volumes. It didn’t used to be that way when they had their attacking power, let’s put it that way. Levadia still have some defensive strength but they’re a youthful side and struggle to score goals on a rather large scale as a result.
Unusually, Levadia’s goals have come more from Leitan than Nahk this season but those two are integral parts of Levadia’s team as they provide experience and a constant goal threat. However, Levadia’s lack of form lately can be attributed to the continued absence of Leitan which is yet another obstacle they have to overcome today. They’ve not scored for two consecutive games and with their new management team still getting to grips with them, Levadia are not ideally placed to do well in this derby.
I’ve had my complaints about Flora Tallinn since they sold target man Post as it’s hindered their ability to have a “Plan B” but they’re still the best side in Estonia by a long way and their 4-0 drubbing of Sillamae Kalev last match emphasised that point rather well.
A rather amusing statistic is that Flora Tallinn have scored thirty-three goals in their last four games, which is an average of over eight goals per game. I find that hilarious because they’ve played two shit sides lately but they’ve destroyed them in typical Flora fashion. Flora have now won five consecutive games in all competitions, putting their miserable and short-lived European campaign behind them as they seek to claim the Meistriliiga title yet again. Flora have a couple of absentees themselves with Finnish midfielder Minkenen being the most notable but with the two promising Aniers up front and Mosnikov supporting them, Flora Tallinn have more than enough firepower to do damage here. My concern for Flora right now is ther goalkeeper as Meerits’ departure means unreliable Pedok is Flora’s number one and the kid makes too many mistakes, simply put. However, that doesn’t change the fact that Flora are a lot better than Levadia right now and it really should show today.
I’d expect odds of around 4/7 on Flora Tallinn winning this game if you take into account the quality gap so you can see where I am coming from here. Derby or not, I find a lot of value in Flora beating Levadia so backing Flora to win at 4/5 appeals to me a lot today.
Verdict: Flora Tallinn to win at 4/5.
Additional game
Arsenal vs Udinese – home win with a -1 Asian Handicap at 10/11.
An awful lot of people are going against Arsenal here and I find this very, very strange. Arsene Wenger is one of the best managers in the world; his side has had to deal with the losses of great players year in, year out – it’s never stopped them because he’s a genius, simply put. Fabregas and Nasri (if he goes) will be missed, sure. So was Henry, though. So was Vieira, Petit, Overmars, Anelka, Hleb etc. etc. the list goes on. Arsenal move on because Wenger knows what he is doing and I have no doubt whatsoever that he knows what he is doing now.
Arsenal do have some concerning absences for this game, the most notable of which is Van Persie, who is actually suspended instead of injured, for a change. Wilshere misses out too so Arsenal are a little short in midfield.
However, let’s look at Udinese, who are not in a good way at all. True enough, they played some exciting attacking football last season and scored a lot of goals as a result. People have short memories, though – a lot of their play went through Sanchez, who has now joined Barcelona. Udinese were very unreliable when Sanchez didn’t play and what a surprise – a player with quick feet and devstating pace doing well in a traditionally slow league(!). I think you can read a lot into Udinese’s other “star” last year being ageing Di Natale, who is a capable finisher but he’s not much else nowadays. No, without Sanchez, I don’t believe in Udinese’s attack whatsoever and I hold true to that even against Arsenal’s dubious defence.
Additionally, Udinese waved farewell to integral box-to-box midfielder Inler and essential Colombian centre-back Zapata. Therefore, three out of their four areas have been hit heavily pre-season and they’re going to have to bed their new signings in very quickly or face the conesquences. I like Ivorian midfielder Doubai, who was signed from Young Boys Bern to replace Inler. He may be a little too physical for Serie A but we’ll see how things go. However, Udinese have done little to replace Sanchez, which must be a concern for their hopes of maintaining their 4-3-3. They’ve brought temperamental Barreto back and Serbian youngster Brkic but is that really enough? Not for me, no. There’s far too many questions there and not enough answers. They also signed Neuton and Danilo to aid their defence but again, a bedding-in period must take place before Udinese become reliable. All in all, there’s a lot of new faces and with Udinese yet to play a competitive game this season, I can only see them struggling against a very quick Arsenal team.
Italian sides traditionally struggle against quick sides and there aren’t many quicker sides than Arsenal. If they go 4-3-3 they’ll get destroyed down the flanks and if they don’t then they’ll have to be solid in the middle of defence. Experienced defender Domizzi is absent tonight, Zapata has moved on, and they’ve got two Brazilians to bed in. That defence doesn’t sound solid to me yet. I’ll be surprised if Arsenal don’t at the very least win this game so I naturally find a lot of value in taking Arsenal to win this one with a -1 Asian Handicap at 10/11.
Verdict: Arsenal to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 10/11.
Team news
UEFA Champions League:
Arsenal – Van Persie, Wilshere, and Diaby are absent. Fabregas is virtually sold and it’s unlikely Nasri will feature.
Udinese – Domizzi and Floro Flores are absent.
Olympique Lyonnais – Cris is absent.
Rubin Kazan’ – Navas, Ryzantsev, and Carlos Eduardo are absent.
FC Copenhagen – No absentees.
Viktoria Plzen – Bakos and Jiracek are absent.
BATE Borisov – Renan is absent.
Sturm Graz – Koch, Feldhofer, and Wolf are absent. Foda and Kainz are doubts.
Twente Enschede – Chadli is absent.
SL Benfica – No absentees.
English Championship:
Portsmouth – Pearce and Benjani could be set to debutise.
Reading – Church is a doubt and Pearce could debutise.
Doncaster Rovers – Mason, Stock, Martis, Wilson, O’Connor, Hayter, and Sharp are absent.
Nottingham Forest – Anderson is absent. Derbyshire and Miller could debutise.
Leeds United – Becchio, Paynter, and Somma are absent.
Hull City – Stewart and McShane are absent.
Watford – McGinn is absent.
West Ham United – Carew, McCartney, and Faubert are doubts.
Crystal Palace – Murray, Clyne, and Iversen are absent. Ambrose is a big doubt.
Coventry City – Baker, Deegan, Platt, Wood, Eastwood, Turner, and Clarke are absent.
Ipswich Town – Ingimarsson is absent. Martin is a doubt.
Southampton – Chaplow and Jaidi are absent.
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Tallinn – Herrem, Alliku, Minkenen, and Luts are absent.
Levadia Tallinn – Leitan is absent.