TFT Issue 412!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Bulgaria vs Turkey – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Today’s featured game is the International Friendly between Bulgaria and Turkey in Austria.
Bulgaria pissed off the betting world with their inexplicable win at Netherlands at weekend, myself included. However, that’s what happens when you have a Netherlands side missing the necessary motivation and a Bulgaria side with a Manager that can truly inspire them in Penev. Despite them missing some of the best players that they’ve ever had in Berbatov, Mihaylov, Stilian Petrov, and Martin Petrov, Bulgaria still put up an admirable fight in Amsterdam and claimed an unlikely 1-2 victory. I think they’ll use that as a platform to build upon here and despite their important absentees, especially from an attacking perspective, I fancy them to cause Turkey problems today. Even Valeri Bojinov has remembered what it’s like to be a striker now and with Ivelin Popov, Tonev, and Gadzhev in their ranks, Bulgaria have enough to upset a very dubious Turkish defence today.
Despite Bulgaria’s defence looking sharp against Netherlands, Turkey themselves were incisive enough to bag a couple of goals. Well, I say that Turkey were but it was the massively in-form Burak Yilmaz that did it. This guy simply cannot stop scoring goals with his excellent movement and composure and I’m sure that he’ll get his chances today. Turkey have a scattering of good attacking players but their defending is just woeful nowadays. Their positioning is a mess and goalkeeper Rustu in the last game decided to abandon everything he was ever taught about goalkeeping. As a side that seriously intends to win games, Turkey are a bit of a joke. As a side that are good at scoring and conceding goals, Turkey are one of the best out there, which is precisely what I’m banking on today.
It’s a friendly but I expect some friendly rivalry between these two Black Sea nations and there’s enough on the plate for this game to go over 2.5 goals, in my view.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Additional games:
Italy vs Luxembourg – under 3.5 goals at 9/10.
This is my boldest call of the day but it’s still one that I like a lot. Italy have failed to convince me for some time now that they’re a dangerous football side. The quality gap between the bigger and smaller European nations is rapidly shrinking and you can usually see it in Italy’s games more than most. It’s not that Italy don’t have world-class players because they absolutely do. However, they don’t function as a unit when it comes to attacking and they look a bit too predictable. I don’t usually see enough width nor pace in their attacks and given the latest match-fixing scandal to have emerged, it’s hard to imagine that the national team are in the greatest of moods right now, especially with their fans unlikely to be happy with the recent arrests. You still have to expect Italy to win the game but I don’t think it’ll be convincing.
Luxembourg are not good enough to beat sides like Italy without a lot of luck. However, they’ve become a deceptively good “stopper” side over the past couple of years and they have made me some money from doing it too. You might not rate the Luxembourgians as a scholar of football but you have to appreciate that the majority of this side has played together for a long time and subsequently possess a lot of cohesion. I don’t think that the likes of Da Mota and Mutsch are good enough to upset the Italian defence here but they’re still good enough to stop Italy from having it all their own way today, in my view.
Again, this is a risky bet so approach it with caution. However, I think there could well be value in taking under 3.5 goals at 9/10, especially with Prandelli’s Italy looking bereft of experience en mass this time around.
Verdict: Under 3.5 goals at 9/10.
Fredrikstad vs Viking Stavanger – under 2.5 goals at evens.
For a side that cannot defend, I really like the idea of Fredrikstad’s home game with Viking Stavanger going under 2.5 goals today and I’ll explain why.
All of Fredrikstad’s attacking goes through Elyounoussi with Celso Borges nothing but a memory nowadays. Etzaz Hussain is starting to demonstrate his potential and old Alex Valencia can spring a surprise but Elyounoussi is the heartbeat of the Fredrikstad attack and he is not playing today due to suspension. Take him out of this line-up and they become headless chickens, prone to conceding at any moment but driven on by their passionate fans. Fredrikstad will never lie down and die at home but you have to question who is going to score for them today.
Criticise Viking Stavanger all you want for their negative football but not many sides score a lot of goals against them. Barring their abject display in the Arctic Circle against Tromso in their last away game, Viking have been very good at nullifying their opponents despite facing tough trips to face Stromsgodset, Valerenga Oslo, and the derby with Brann Bergen, all of which have gone under 2.5 goals due to Viking not scoring and only Stromsgodset scoring against them. There’s a lot of experience in the Viking side and they’re not an easy side to beat as a result. At the other end of the field, however, they’re a bit predictable and boring with only Valon Berisha providing any kind of inspiration. Erik Nevland is the target man and finisher but he’s not playing today either so Viking are going to struggle to score here, even with Fredrikstad’s assistance. De Lanlay and pacey Faroese attacker Edmundsson could produce something here if there’s a full moon but without Nevland, I have very little faith in the Viking attack.
I expect an awful game of football here and a likely 0-0 scoreline. I would not bet on the scoreline, however, as Fredrikstad have the capacity to concede at any stage. However, going under 2.5 goals at evens with both sides missing their most influential attacking player looks very appealing indeed.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Team news
International Friendlies:
Lithuania – Karcemarskas is absent. Velicka returns.
Russia – Shishkin and V.Berzeutskiy are absent.
Bulgaria – G.Milanov is absent. S.Petrov, M.Petrov, Mihaylov, and Berbatov are absent.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Fredrikstad – Valencia, Holm, Ramberg, Hussain, Dure, and Elyounoussi are absent.
Viking Stavanger – Nevland, Gyan, and Bjordal are absent.