TFT Issue 237!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Espanyol vs Real Betis Balompie – home win at 6/5.
Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga game between Espanyol and Real Betis Balompie.
Espanyol have really solidified under club legend Pochettino and their displays have been very consistent ever since he took over the club a few years ago. They’re not a Real Madrid or a Barcelona, of course, but any side that underestimates the difficult trip to Barcelona to face Espanyol often suffers as a result. The sale of Osvaldo pre-season has harmed Espanyol’s ability to score goals on a more regular basis but the way that they’re setup tends to mean that the team still functions very well as a unit. Their success stems from a solid backline and tenacious midfielders – the rest just falls into place with old hand Pandiani and pacey Sergio Garcia left to the damage in attack. The only side to avoid defeat at Espanyol this season was Real Madrid, who won here in Barcelona, which is understandable. Getafe and Athletic Club de Bilbao respectively have both lost here, however, and worryingly enough, Espanyol have started to win away from home, which has long been their Achilles heel. They defend as a team and take their chances. Three out of their last five games have ended in 1-0 wins, which tells you a lot about the strong team spirit and cohesion that Espanyol have. They’re a real force in Barcelona and I won’t go against them at home many times this season – I can guarantee you that!
Visitors Real Betis Balompie had a bright start on their return to the Primera Liga but it was short-lived as they’ve now suffered four consecutive defeats. They did well pre-season by signing excellent target man Roque Santa Cruz and with Pereira and Castro up top, the Andaluscians do have options in front of goal. They’ve even got a decent midfield with ex-Lezama playmaker Exteberria supporting the Betis attackers, not to mention ex-Deportivo central midfielder Iriney and Salva. However, their defence is shoddy at best and it really, really shows. There aren’t any leaders at the back and very few of their defenders are what I would call Primera Liga quality so is it any wonder that they’ve shipped eight goals in four games? Their attack is good but not good enough to constantly bail out the Betis defence and subsequently, when Betis don’t score, they rarely get so much as a point.
With the above in mind, I have to realistically consider the Espanyol win at 6/5 as a pure bargain. As long as Espanyol take their chances against Betis then they really should win this one. Betis can be dangerous in attack but they’re not strong enough to get something in Barcelona, in my view. For me, this game really should end in a rather narrow but comfortable home win.
Verdict: Espanyol to win at 6/5.
Additional game
Aalesund FK vs Stabaek – away win with draw no bet at 7/5.
I’m going against what I’d like to here as I do love taking Aalesund FK to win at the Color Line Stadion. They’re a nightmare to face on their own turf but I just don’t think today will be their day.
To understand why an average side like Aalesund are so strong at home, you have to understand their manager Rekdal. He’s outspoken but a very good manager. He’s a fierce motivator and a strong tactician. Aalesund will play a physical game on their artificial turf and trouble any side in the Eliteserien – that’s just how it goes. However, artificial turf is a strong weapon of theirs, too – that cannot be written off.
So why oppose them today? Well, Aalesund have a very small squad. It’s an able squad with good cohesion but it’s not a deep squad and it’s showing. They’ve got injury problems and have had for a few weeks now. This is Aalesund’s third game in nine days with a very thin and young squad. As hungry as this squad undoubtedly is, I just don’t think that they’ll have enough in the tank to recreate the kind of heroic display that they showed against Valerenga Oslo earlier this week.
So – time for Stabaek to impress me, perhaps? They’ve not done so since they had Nannskog and Gunnarsson leading the line but there’s always time for a change in football. Truth be told, Stabaek are a bit lightweight in attack with two youngsters to choose from – M’Bang Ondo and Aase respectively – so I don’t rate them too highly there. However, midfield is where they truly excel with Pontus Farnerud sat in front of the back four as the core of it. His stable and reliable presence allows Olle Olle, Palmason, Diskerud, and Andersson to run riot behind their lone frontman and they do a really good job of supporting him, in my view. Their pace makes them a strong counter-attacking side and subsequently makes them a dangerous side in front of goal. Considering that Stabaek tend to rely on their artificial turf at home to trouble sides, Stabaek do amazingly well away from home on natural turf. I mean, they’ve only lost four times on the road this season in the Eliteserien, which is quite amazing. Defensively, Stabaek have improved over the last year, which is largely thanks to the emergence of Hedenstad in defence. However, he’s likely to be absent today and I can’t lie – that does bother me.
However, that doesn’t concern me enough to make me look upon taking Stabaek with draw no bet at 7/5 as anything but a bargain, whether it comes in or not. Stabaek are a dangerous counter-attacking side and they can prove it here against what is certain to be a tired Aalesund side. Both sides play on artificial turf so Aalesund are deprived of at least one of their usual home strengths. Additionally, there are big doubts over their Costa Rican playmaker Barrantes, who is arguably their best player. Add all the above up and I think the away win with draw no bet is well worth a flutter at 7/5.
Verdict: Stabaek to win with draw no bet at 7/5.