TFT Issue 296!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Libya vs Zambia – Zambia to win at evens.
Today’s featured game is the African Nations game between Libya and Zambia.
Libya lost their opening game 1-0 against hosts Equatorial Guinea thanks to a late goal from Balboa. I think the result was fair, based on the balance of play, but it does leave Libya in a do-or-die position. Their big problem is that they cannot score goals. They don’t engineer enough chances for their average strikers to score goals, which has been their problem throughout the qualifiers and will continue for some time unless something drastic occurs. They defend pretty well and if this was the first game for both sides then I’d probably leave it but Libya do have to push on to get a result at some point in this game as they know that the chances of them beating Senegal are remote. Libya pushing on leaves gaps and Zambia can exploit them there.
Zambia beat Senegal 2-1 in their opening game, which was very impressive. I’d like to believe that people are now seeing Zambia for the good side that they are but chances are very good that people will back them here just because they beat Senegal so I’d take this one sooner rather than later, especially as I don’t really see the value in this bet if it slips to 9/10, for example. Zambia have some very good players in their ranks – they’re packed full of energy and pace, not to mention skill, and they can cause upsets. However, don’t make the mistake of thinking that this is a banker – it’s not. Very few games in this tournament are. I do fancy Zambia to win it but bear in mind that they beat Senegal as the underdogs. Now they’re the favourites and they’ll have to break down Libya; that’s a different ball game. Like I said earlier, though – I do expect Libya to attack in this game and Zambia can exploit them there but this could be a patient game for Zambia for reasons mentioned above so it may take until deep into the second-half for them to take the lead, which I do ultimately expect them to do.
Of course, Zambia could burst out of the traps and annihlate Libya – I genuinely believe that they’re good enough to do it. Naturally it’s easier to motivate your team against one of the favourites (Senegal) than it is against one of the weaker sides in the tournament, however, so I am a shade wary here. That said, evens on Zambia beating a side that they’re better than looks appealing to me, especially as those three points would virtually guarantee them a place in the last round, which helps them massively as their last game is against the hosts and few sides beat any host in the African Nations at any time.
Verdict: Zambia to win at evens.
Additional games
Equatorial Guinea vs Senegal – lay Senegal at 11/10.
Ok, Senegal are one of the favourites for the tournament – fair enough. 7/10 against the hosts though? Crazy odds. Senegal are a squad of excellent strikers, good defenders, and average midfielders. We saw their huge problem in creating chances against Zambia and that cost them the game. Will this be any easier for them? Not really – the same problem remains. Admittedly, Equatorial Guinea are weaker than Zambia but they’re also hosts and their support counts for a great deal here. Equatorial Guinea have some players that are good at keeping the ball and although they need more chances than they’ll probably be allowed to score goals, I fancy them to be gritty enough to get a result against an overrated and under-achieving Senegal side. I mean, if Equatorial Guinea are daft enough to give Senegal space then they’ll get battered by Senegal’s vastly superior strikers but I don’t see that happening for one second. I mean, Equatorial Guinea’s players were rewarded with something crazy like £1,000,000 by the Prince of the country for beating Libya in the opening game so motivation is no problem whatsoever for the hosts here. I just think that Senegal are too short when you bear in mind that their handicap is still very much present so my call is to boldly lay the superior Senegalese in favour of a strong team display from the hosts.
Verdict: Lay Senegal at 11/10.
Zulte-Waregem vs Germinal Beerschot – home win at evens.
I like this one more than I should, which tends to spell danger. However, I really cannot look at Zulte-Waregem’s price on winning this game as anything but generous. Admittedly, I’ve not had the privelege of seeing the team news so perhaps it’d be wise to check the line-ups before the game.
However, Zulte-Waregem should claim three points here. They’ve shown improvement since returning from the winter break and although their handicap is still not taking their chances, they should have ample amount of chances to convert against a Germinal Beerschot side that don’t know what defending is. Zulte-Waregem miss striker Maazou for this game – I know that much as he’s with the Niger squad at the African Nations. However, he’s not been a regular this season so it’s no real loss. It’s a shame that they parted with Hyland those years ago, really – big Habibou up front just can’t play without him and subsequently he’s fallen down the pecking order too. Rossini, Chevalier, Trajkovski, Naessens – they’re all “nearly” or “maybe” men to me. None of them bring the consistency that Habibou used to, hence Zulte-Waregem’s predicament. Like I said, though, they have shown signs of improvement since returning from the winter break and they have won this fixture for four out of the last five seasons so why not again today?
A lot of my confidence stems from Germinal Beerschot’s ineptitude, I must confess. Defending is something that they’re simply not good at anyway but to sell their only good defender Kagelmacher to AS Monaco a week ago was pure suicide and we saw what happened to them in Liege against attacker-less Stanard. Admittedly, Zulte-Waregem are not Standard de Liege but Germinal’s defensive calamities should remain and that is a problem for them here. Their only good striker Sidibe is still missing in action with even sources in Hungary struggling to locate the big striker. That damages Germinal’s attack massively, in my view, and that’s especially evident away from home as nobody can hold up the ball like he can and nobody has his strength, either. Germinal play differently in Antwerp; their general attacking style is hard to deflate there and subsequently they do well in most of their home games. However, on the road, they really struggle – they’re notorious for it in Belgium – and I expect them to struggle here without their best defender and best striker.
Therefore, taking Zulte-Waregem to win at evens appeals to me, especially as this is Germinal’s fourth game in nine days; they just don’t have the squad to deal with that.
Verdict: Zulte-Waregem to win at evens.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Newcastle Jets – Culina is absent. Jeffers and Gallaway are doubts. Calvano returns.
Adelaide United – McKain and Levchenko are absent. Cassio and Susak are doubts.
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Club Brugge – Dhoest, Vydra, Blondel, Odjidja, and van Gijseghem are absent.
Lokeren – Deekman and Barry are absent.
Sint-Truiden – Andrade, van Crombrugge, Reza, Volders, Christ, Bertjens, Daerden are absent. Taelemans is a doubt. Buyssens and Okotie return.
Westerlo – Vanaudenaerde, Arbeitman, Cardoso, Deelkens, Owusu, Roef, van Hout, Wils, Cabeke, Marcao, de Petter, de Greef are absent. Farsai and Dekelver return.
OH Leuven – Roelands, Vastmans, Hayen, van Goethem, Dehond, and Raymaekers are absent. Boi returns.
Kortrijk – Mulemo is absent. Pavlovic is a doubt. Veselinovic returns.
Mechelen – Biebauw, Geudens, Vidarsson, and van Loo are absent. Alibec returns.
Racing Genk – Joneleit, Limbombe, Sarr, and Sandomierski are absent. Vanden Borre and Toszer are doubts.
Lierse SK – Ayew, Flavio, Gilberto, Thompson, Huysegems, Frans, Mathisen, and Dequevy are absent. Maric is a doubt.
Cercle Brugge – Gombamim, Sergeant, Foley, Vidarsson, and Evens are absent.
Zulte-Waregem – Skulason, Matton, and Colpaert are absent.
Germinal Beerschot – No absentees.
Greek Super League:
Doxa Dramas – Sikalias, Tripotseris, Vanderson, Kapel, and Kovasevits are absent. Kanakoudis has left.
Asteras Tripolis – Bakasetas, Xuli, and Agryropoulos are absent.
Panathinaikos – Kasouranis will start from the bench. Boumsong, Kante, Ninis, Christodoulopoulos, and Rudolf are absent.
Levadiakos – No absentees.