TFT Issue 32!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
The bin
Independiente vs River Plate – home win at 11/8.
Was tempted as River are really week this year but there’s the issue of Independiente and their committments in continental football so I’ve decided to avoid it.
Argentinos Juniors vs Velez Sarsfield – away win at 5/4.
Velez are the better side by a mile but again, CL committments for Velez make me wonder what side they’ll field here. Argentinos played a game just 2 days ago and should be tired but there’s no point taking Velez if they’re going to rest players.
Montevideo Wanderers vs Defensor Sporting – away win at evens
The visitors are the better side by some distance but they’re missing defender Suarez and midfielder Aranda, the latter of which is instrumental in their attacking play so I’m going to avoid this as Defensor’s second string weren’t much use against Cerro recently so why would they be now?
Anorthosis Famagusta vs Omonia Nicosia – home win with draw no bet at 5/6.
Anorthosis are the form side in Cyprus currently but they’re missing Marangos in midfield and they cannot beat a side of Omonia’s quality without such an important midfielder, in my view. Omonia miss Spungin in defence and aren’t scoring goals so I’m still tempted, even now, but I’m going to avoid it as Marangos is the heartbeat of the team.
Double chance
1X:
Manchester City
Paris Saint-Germain
Fortuna Dusseldorf
PAOK Salonika
Pumas UNAM
Guarani Asuncion
Lech Poznan
Polonia Warsaw
Featured game
Today’s featured game is between AS Roma and Parma in Serie A.
Hosts AS Roma made a bizarre move after their 4-3 defeat at Genoa by removing Claudio Ranieri as boss, which is inexplicably stupid. Ok, so maybe Roma’s board were unhappy at throwing a three-goal lead away to lose 4-3 but so what? Roma have never been a good away side, irrespective of how the result comes about. The fact is that Ranieri is the best boss they’ve had since Capello, in my view, and they may live to regret losing Ranieri. I guess Roma’s board have short memories – they were a terrible team before Ranieri made them into candidates for the Serie A title again.
Anyway, Roma moved to appoint ex-striker Vincenzo Montella as boss, which is also stupid. Maybe he’ll turn out to be the best manager in the world and prove me wrong but even if he is a good manager then I doubt it’ll show as early as this. Montella had no coaching experience until he steered Roma to a weekend win at injury-ravaged Bologna and thus his honeymoon period is over; now it’s time to face the Stadio Olimpico faithful.
Roma’s fundamental problem has always been scoring enough goals to win games and that’s largely because they deploy a 4-5-1 formation and don’t score enough from it or because they defend stupidly at times and thus narrow, low-scoring wins are a rarity for Roma. They’ve got a fantastic midfield and some brilliant individuals scattered throughout the side but they’re unbelievably vulnerable in defence and that should show today with lynchpin Mexes absent.
However, Roma have to turn it on in front of their nutcase fans and they’ve got more than enough talent to score themselves. Let’s face it – defending is not a forté of Parma’s either so we should see goals here. Parma’s strength is in attack and any attack that contains mighty Hernan Crespo, experienced target man Amauri, battling Bulgarian forward Bojinov, and the skilful Giovinco has a great chance of scoring goals. Parma have struggled for form lately, admittedly, and it does look like it’s been playing on their minds. However, they’ve got the ability to score goals and I’d be surprised to see them not take advantage of that today with Mexes out for Roma.
Roma have conceded in five out of their last six games in all competitions and have conceded in five out of their last six home games so you have to expect them to concede here if Parma show up. Parma have struggled lately themselves but it’s been largely due to defensive errors as their attack is still strong.
For me, this game has “both teams to score” written all over it. I don’t want to enter the 1×2 market as I’ve not seen enough of Montella as a boss to forge an opinion as to how good he is, although Roma should probably edge it. However, backing both sides to score in this game at 4/5 looks a good value bet to me today.
Team news – AS Roma miss Mexes, Greco, Perrotta, Rosi, and Adriano whereas Parma miss Angelo, Calvo, and Marques.
Verdict: Both teams to score at 4/5.