TFT Issue 322!
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Featured game
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona – away win with -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga game in Madrid between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona.
Atletico Madrid have been on fire lately, producing a string of very efficient and consistent displays. Generally speaking, you’d never be able to associate those two characteristics with Atletico over the past few decades but new boss Diego Simeone is certainly whipping them into shape.
However, they face a new foe tonight – Barcelona. I don’t think that there can be many objections to stating that some of the finest Primera Liga games over the past few years have been played between these two sides. Back when Atletico had Torres and Aguero they used to give Barcelona a rough ride although Barcelona did tend to win the encounters, it has to be said.
Times have changed, though. Atletico are developing a new style that allows them to capitalise on the goals that they score by stopping their opponent scoring. It’s hardly a new idea but it’s certainly new for the red-and-white side of Madrid; they never used to even attempt it before!
This approach will help them in most games but against Barcelona? I just don’t see it. Sides that have mastered the “park the bus” tactics that Atletico now play have lost easily against Barcelona in the past and it may be the same situation here. The way to upset Barcelona at the moment is to attack them, to force them into mistakes, to make them realise that they’re still human.
Barcelona are a little short on the psychological front and the only way you can really see it in their games is in their composure. Watch Sanchez, Thiago, or Tello – they have no composure in or around the penalty area. They either get too greedy, look rushed, or release the ball far too early. Hell, even Fabregas has looked nervous of late! The ones who don’t look nervous are the “old guard” – Iniesta, Xavi, and of course, Messi.
However, Barcelona have struggled when sides have pushed them because they’ve had less chances that they’ve been able to create and thus they’ve scored less goals. In this game, if Atletico are going to do what I think they’re going to do then Barcelona are going to be able to dictate play, which is suicide for the hosts. I can’t see them pushing on to attack Barcelona though, not with playmaker Diego out.
For me, this should be all Barcelona in terms of attacking and the number of goals should depend on the number of chances that they create. They still miss the movement, composure, and finesse of Villa, of course. However, I don’t see Atletico being able to upset Barcelona here, even if they do score. For me, the -1 Asian Handicap is well worth a flutter at 5/6.
Verdict: Barcelona to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 5/6.
Additional games
Osasuna vs Granada – home win at evens.
Hats off to Granada; they’ve done far more this season than I expected them to. They were a breath of fresh air in the Segunda Liga last season and to a certain degree, they’ve been the same to the Primera Liga. They’ve been an easy side to face at home for no side in the Primera Liga and that home form may be the reason that they beat the drop, if indeed they do. However, like most newly-promoted sides, they find games on the road very tough to play in and subsequently have lost eight out of eleven on the road this season – no side has lost more away games than Granada. Only Sevilla CF have scored less than Granada on the road and whilst averaging conceding two goals per away game, it’s hard to see Granada’s away form improving, even with three wins from their last four games in all competitions.
I ignore statistics when looking at Osasuna because when they’re motivated, they’re almost impossible to beat. However, when they’re missing certain players, they’re very easy to beat. Now, the big news for Osasuna here is the return of Raul Garcia, who basically runs the team. He is the only thing stopping Osasuna from being in this relegation battle; his presence is essential in their squad, now more than ever. His return gives them every opportunity of winning this game. No trip to Pamplona has ever been easy, even for the big sides, and thus I expect Granada to really struggle here. Osasuna aren’t a prolific side but they’re ruthlessly efficient and are a physical force to be reckoned with and I just don’t see Granada being ready for that challenge yet.
For me, an experienced Osasuna side should claim three points today. At evens, the home win interests me although I’d leave it if the odds drop.
Verdict: Osasuna to win at evens.
Villarreal CF vs Athletic Club de Bilbao – home win at 7/5.
Athletic must surely be too tired to do well in a game at long last! They’re particularly vulnerable on the road, as per usual, but they’ve got important absentees to deal with here. First of all, defensive monster Amorebieta is absent – that’s a huge blow. They can’t defend as it is but without him they’re in a bad way. Bielsa is likely to summon San Jose to replace him, who is a good defender, but at a venue like El Madrigal you need your best team available and the fact is that Athletic don’t have that luxury here. Javi Martinez returns from suspension and if he’s at centre-back then Athletic are going to concede goals here.
Who else is out? “Left-back” De Marcos is absent, as is wonderkid Muniain. This does a lot of damage to Athletic’s left flank – I suspect Bielsa will put Gabilondo on the wing and Aurtenexte at left-back. They aren’t bad replacements but they don’t bring the same attacking impetus that the afore-mentioned do, hence further problems for Athletic. Llorente will most likely score here because that’s the kind of form that he’s in right now but you’re looking at a very tired Athletic side right now. They played a draining game with Lokomotiv Moscow just three days ago, playing with ten men for at least a third of the game. Athletic were poor in the game, needing bad defending from Lokomotiv to take the lead and then fortunately hang on. For me, they’re in for a long, tough, and ultimately disappointing game here.
Villarreal have always troubled Athletic, which aids my bet. I don’t know what it is but the Basque side never really manages to get to grips with El Sumbarino Amarillo. Villarreal have been far from impressive for the majority of the season but most of their names are back with only Nilmar and Rossi doubts for this game. Ruben, Valero, Camunas – there’s enough firepower there to trouble a makeshift and tired Athletic defence.
For me, there’s terrific value in the hosts winning this one. Athletic have averaged playing a game per every three days in 2012 and are running out of players. If Villarreal turn up here then they could tear Los Leones a new one. Either way, 7/5 on the home win just makes a lot of sense here.
Verdict: Villarreal CF to win at 7/5.
AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen – away win with +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Quality-wise, AZ are the better side here. However, they’re horribly short for a game that is far from easy and I’m happy to oppose them here with that in mind.
AZ have not impressed much in the last few weeks and they have a tendency to do that. Maybe it’s to do with a lack of depth for the hosts because let’s face it – if we remove any of their starting eleven then we have an AZ side that is nowhere near as effective. They’ve been superb at home this season but again, I’m not impressed by them right now as they’re not attacking with conviction and they do look suspect at the back. I wonder if Wernbloom will be missed more than initially anticipated? Seriously, if we ignore AZ’s display against Ajax and their emphatic win at ADO Den Haag, AZ have been massively average in their games of late, including a droll 2-0 win against Excelsior Rotterdam. Let’s put it another way – if AZ show up in this game like they did at FC Utrecht lately (an FC Utrecht side devoid of virtually all of their midfield, it has to be said!) then they’re going to lose this game and it’s as simple as that.
AZ are not an easy side to beat, of course. If they show up then they’re nearly impossible to beat. However, in terms of tactics, I can’t name a side in the Eredivisie that has impressed me more in recent times than Heerenveen. They’re becoming notorious for playing well in one half and showing no adventure in the other but they can do that. Their three-pronged attack of Narsingh, Assaidi, and big Dost are absolutely unplayable at times, especially on the counter-attack. Duricic and Elm in midfield have been excellent this season and basically Jans has set his side up impeccably, in my view. They’ve played six games in 2012, Heerenveen, and they’ve won all of them. On paper, that’s impressive as it is but the efficiency which Heerenveen have displayed during those games is very, very impressive. I’d argue that they’re the most dangerous counter-attacking side in the Netherlands right now and they look solid at the back so why not cause an upset today? They’ve only lost one away game in the Eredivisie this season!
For me, this game has the hallmarks of an upset. Heerenveen are good enough to frustrate AZ and as long as the hosts aren’t at their best, I can’t help but view giving Heerenveen a +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5 as anything but a steal.
Verdict: Heerenveen to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
SSC Napoli vs Internazionale – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
The home win here has to be the biggest public bet of the day but I won’t be jumping aboard.
I like Napoli, especially at their beloved San Paolo in Naples, but they’re not worth 5/6 against Internazionale. Inter are not playing well – true – but what those odds are suggesting are that Napoli are more likely to win this game than I think they are. That’s not to say that Napoli won’t win the game but more that their short odds really concern me against a sleeping dragon.
First of all, Napoli cannot command those odds without all three of their key attackers being present, which are of course Lavezzi, Cavani, and Hamsik. Well, Hamsik is absent, so those odds immediately look wrong in my eyes. Cavani and Lavezzi are lethal and will almost certainly at least score here. What of their defence, though? It may alarm you to know that only five sides have conceded more goals at home than Napoli in Serie A this season and two of them are in the relegation zone.
What has happened whenever Napoli has entertained a good side at home this season? They’ve both scored and conceded! They love turning up in front of goal but rarely show up at the back. Look at their results from their big home games this season below:
Napoli 3 AC Milan 1
Napoli 2 Manchester City 1
Napoli 3 Juventus 3
Napoli 1 AS Roma 3
Napoli 3 Chelsea 1
They almost always make it hard for themselves but deliver with excellent goalscoring ability. For the record, I do think Napoli will win this game but will I risk it against Inter? No chance. Ranieri is one of the best managers in Italy and Inter possess one of the best squads – only a bit of luck is missing from the equation. They were unlucky to lose in France mid-week against shitty Marseille – maybe that luck will balance itself out here.
So, yeah – no 1×2 market for me. However, I see a lot of value in over 2.5 goals. Inter have struggled lately due to bad defending and the news that both Maicon and Ranocchia miss this game is not good at all, even despite their samba tendencies. Therefore, over 2.5 goals should be a good value bet today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Bologna vs Udinese – Under 2 goals at 6/5.
This game has the hallmarks of a 0-0 draw. I’m tempted to put a 0-0 scoreline as a side-bet but let’s stick to under 2 goals for now.
For me, Bologna are a poor man’s version of Udinese. They both play football the same way, building from the back, packing their midfield with energetic and physical players. Udinese have marginally better players than Bologna but Bologna have more attacking options than Udinese. No side has an easy win at Bologna and no side has an easy game against Udinese. Both sides will not take risks unnecessarily and a point isn’t a bad thing for either side to take from this game. Isla and Pinzi are out for Udinese, which removes two cornerstones from a side that struggles with depth. I can’t take Udinese’s chances of winning this game seriously without those two players, even with the superb Di Natale back to lead the line. I think Bologna have more chance of edging this one, if forced into a decision, but for me, we’re in for a cautious and low-scoring game. Therefore, taking under 2 goals appeals to me an awful lot here, possibly more than it should!
Verdict: Under 2 goals at 6/5.
Team news
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege – Buzaglo, Van Damme, Gonzalez, Seijas, and Buyens are absent.
Sint-Truiden – Andrade, Van Crombrugge, Volders, Delorge, and Reza are absent. Chatelle is a doubt.
Racing Genk – Joneleit, Koteles, and Nwanganga are absent.
Club Brugge – Dhoest, Van Gijseghem, Blondel, Odjidja, and Stenman are absent.
Lierse SK – Mathisen, Grncrov, and Ayew are absent.
Anderlecht – De Sutter, Safari, Vargas, and Marecek are absent. Molins is a doubt.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Osijek – No news.
Split – Krizanac and Vitaic are absent.
Cypriot Division 1:
Ethnikos Achnas – Pincelli and Mahrantze are absent.
Enosis Neon Paralimni – Berchill and Faria are absent.
Ermis – Fassott, Onisiforou, and Goumenos are absent.
Anorthosis Famagusta – Laborde is absent. Konstantinou is a doubt.
APOEL Nicosia – Jorge is absent.
Nea Salamis – Pekarik and Leon are absent.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Viktoria Zizkov – Folwarczny, Sloboda, and Kalod are absent.
Mlada Boleslav – Opiela, Fabian, and Synek are absent.
Ceske Budejovice – Javorek, Strasky, Bakala, and Brezinsky are absent.
Bohemians 1905 – Zizka, Nikl, and Nerad are absent.
Viktoria Plzen – Prochazka is absent. Kolar and Rajtoral are doubts.
Dukla Prague – Lietava and Siml are absent.
German Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich – Contento, Van Buyten, Breno, and Schweinsteiger are absent.
Schalke 04 – Fahrmann, Jones, Escudero, and Unnerstall are absent.
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – Koch, Gotze, and Leitner are absent.
Hannover 96 – Andreasen and Carlitos are absent.
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Maccabi Haifa – Twathe and Vered are absent. Davidovich is a doubt. Osman, Egani, and Amasha return.
Beitar Jerusalem – No absentees.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Capelli and Carmona are absent.
Bologna – Cruz, Diamanti, and Loria are absent.
Cagliari – Nene, Rui Sampaio, El-Kabir, and Eriksson are absent. Pinilla and Cossu are doubts.
Catania – Suazo, Potenza, and Campagnolo are absent. Capuano, Izco, and Barrientos are doubts.
Cesena – Moras, Ravaglia, and von Bergen are absent. Djokovic is a doubt.
Chievo Verona – Bradley, Dainelli, Drame, Morero, and Thereau are absent. Sammarco is a doubt.
Fiorentina – Olivera, Kroldrup, Kharja, Gamberini, and Cassani are absent. Amauri is a doubt.
Internazionale – Guarin, Maicon, and Ranocchia are absent.
Lazio – Brocchi, Cana, Makinwa, Matuzalem, Rocchi, and Stankevicius are absent. Radu, Konko, and Klose are doubts.
Lecce – Blasi, Obodo, Grossmuller, and Falcone are absent. Ofere, Benassi, and Esposito are doubts.
SSC Napoli – Hamsik is absent. Vargas is a doubt.
Novara – Jensen, Ludi, Marianini, and Morimoto are absent.
Palermo – Bacinovic and Hernandez are absent.
AS Roma – Totti is absent. Pjanic and Juan are doubts.
Siena – Calaio, Brkic, and Bolzoni are absent. D’Agostino and Angelo are doubts.
Udinese – Badu, Isla, and Pinzi are absent. Di Natale and Abdi are doubts.
Dutch Eredivisie:
Excelsior Rotterdam – Fileccia, Smith, Nuytinck, Broerse, van Steensel, de Vries, and Eekman are absent.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Ooijer, Boerrigter, Enoh, van der Wiel, Sigthorsson, and Boilesen are absent.
PSV Eindhoven – Tamata, Guidetti, Ramsteijn, Leerdam, and Cisse are absent.
Twente Enschede – Rendla, Landzaat, Tiendalli, Wisgerhof, and Verhoek are absent.
FC Utrecht – Sarota, van der Gun, Bovenberg, Mulenga, Fernandez, Nilsson, and van Dijk are absent.
AZ Alkmaar – Johansson and Moisander are absent.
Heerenveen – Janmaat, Aissaidi, and Zomer are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Slask Wroclaw – Pawelec, Cwielong, and Sztylka are absent.
Legia Warsaw – Choto is absent. Radovic returns. Novo may debutise. Blanco is on trial. Rybus and Komorowski have left.
Wisla Krakow – Jaliens, Pareiko, Jovanovic, Chavez, and Iliev are doubts.
Korona Kielce – Hernani has left. Lisowski, Kijanskas, and Kuzera return.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Pacos de Ferreira – Tony, Barros, and Cohene are absent.
CD Nacional de Madeira – Moreno, Edgar, and Skolnik are absent.
Beira-Mar – Artur, Paes, Bura, and Zhang return. Dudu, Tiago Cintra, Serginho, and Edson Silva are absent.
Vitoria Setubal – Ze Pedro and Neca are absent. Goncalves returns.
Olhanense – Micael, Ivanildo, Nuno Piloto, and Luis Filipe are absent.
Gil Vicente – Guilherme, Eder, Rui Faria, and Paulo Arandes return. Hugo Vieira, Pedro Moreira, Sandro, Halisson, and Claudio are absent.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – Onyewu, Rodriguez, Jeffren, and Rinaudo are absent.
Rio Ave – Tarantini and Andre Dias return. Jefferson, Pinto, and Jorginho are absent.
Porto – Danilo, Mangala, and Kleber are absent.
Feirense – Ludovic, Mika, and Henrique are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Villarreal CF – Nilmar is a doubt.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Muniain, De Marcos, Amorebieta, Gurpegi, Castillo, and Ocio are absent.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – Miche is absent. Casado, Arribas, and Michu return.
Real Madrid – Benzema is absent. Diarra and Altintop are doubts.
Osasuna – Masoud, Sola, and Ricardo are absent.
Granada – Siqueira is absent. Diakhate returns.
Real Sociedad – Illarramendi and Elustondo are absent. Zurutuza, Demidov, and Ifran return.
Real Mallorca – Cendros and Joao Victor are absent. Chico returns.
Valencia CF – Banega and Canales are absent.
Sevilla CF – Perotti is absent. Fazio is a doubt.
Atletico Madrid – Antonio Lopez and Diego are absent. Adrian, Salvio, and Arda Turan are doubts.
Barcelona – Villa and Afellay are absent.
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Celta de Vigo – Aspas, Joel, and Insa are absent.
Almeria – Bautista and Ortiz are absent.
Cordoba – No news.
Las Palmas – No news.
Turkish Super Lig:
Istanbul BB – Webo is absent.
Antalyaspor – No absentees.
Genclerbirligi – Mehmet Akgun and Curri are absent.
Sivasspor – Mehmet, Hayrettin Yerlikaya, Cerny, Erman, Kilic, and Enaromo are absent.
Trabzonspor – Vittek and Burk are absent.
Mersin Idmanyurdu – Erhan Guven, Zurita, Erdal, Baris, and Tisdell are absent.
Galatasaray – No absentees.
Besiktas JK – Hilbert and Fernandes are absent.