TFT Issue 327!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Real Sociedad – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Basque derby between Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad. Few derbies are more heated than this, especially with Athletic boasting a history of poaching Real Sociedad youngsters, and this one should be no different.
So, what can we expect from this game? Cards, obviously – I’ll be surprised if this game ends with both sides keeping all their players on the field, especially with Athletic nutcase Amorebieta warming up well for this game by getting sent off in Venezuela’s friendly with Spain.
However, more importantly, I expect goals here. Bilbao should win this game but given that they can’t keep a clean sheet, it’s hard to take them to win this game at such short odds. Bilbao always score goals, though – that’s going to be key here. They welcome back Muniain on the left-hand side and you don’t need me to tell you how good this kid is. Big Llorente up front is in tremendous form and the number of players that Athletic boast going forward is amazing – they simply have lots of options for different tactical approaches and it should make an impact here.
However, Real Sociedad have improved a little lately. Yes, that improvement is mostly at home but Montanier’s team look a lot more dangerous in attack. Let’s face it, Vela, Griezmann, and Xabi Prieto are very dangerous attacking players and will take great pleasure in exposing Athletic’s weakest area – full-back. Real Sociedad have a good central midfield core but are vulnerable when their defence is prised away from their midfield, which is something that Athletic do well. Real Sociedad have to abandon their solid defensive shape when they concede and given that they will concede here, I expect the opportunity to be there for goals to be scored. However, Real Sociedad boast a great counter-attacking threat themselves and I do think that they’ll score at least once here.
Therefore, my call is over 2.5 goals. Hopefully we won’t need another half-way line strike from Inigo Martinez to allow the goal number to increase here though!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Additional games
Jablonec vs Ceske Budejovice – home win with -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
There is a huge quality gap between these two sides and I’m going to be very surprised if it doesn’t show by the final whistle here. Ceske Budejovice’s goalscoring record in the Gambrinus Liga this season looks good on paper but they score most at home where they outnumber their opponents with their 4-3-3 formation. Away from home, they simply get ripped apart with their makeshift defence, hence them averaging conceding over two goals per away game and thus losing six out of eight away games already this season. Jablonec are a superb home side – they average scoring nearly three goals per home game – and with Lafata having the season of his life, I think they’ll continue that run here. They fucked up last week by not approaching the game in a workmanlike fashion. I expect them to overcompensate today because of that and that should mean that they’ll beat the -1.5 handicap against a side that they’re leagues ahead of. I’ve got a scoreline of 4-1 in my head but either way, the -1.5 handicap appeals to me at 11/10.
Verdict: Jablonec to beat the -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United – away win with draw no bet at 4/5
This should be an interesting game as both sides deploy wide games. The big difference between the two sides is experience, however, which United have a lot of. The big blow for this game for Spurs is the suspension of Scott Parker, who was sent off unnecessarily in their 5-2 derby loss at Arsenal. That loss will have damaged their confidence at least partially and it’ll be interesting to see how that affects them here. Spurs were woeful in defence against Arsenal and especially so at full-back. If they do the same here against United then they’ll be made to pay as United love to stretch the game. Rooney returns for the visitors and with Paul Scholes looking better than ever and United showing that ability to simply grind out wins where it matters, you have to fancy the visitors to take something from this game. United haven’t lost against Spurs in twenty-four meetings and tend to do enough to at least draw the game. They’ve played well in their big games lately and I expect another professional display from United here against a Spurs side that has plenty of ability but still has a lot to learn. With Bale rumoured to be a doubt for this game and no Parker to mark Scholes, I give the nod to United with draw no bet cover at 4/5.
Verdict: Manchester United to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Radnicki 1923 vs Vojvodina Novi Sad – away win with draw no bet at 10/11.
Radnicki 1923 were good at the start of the season but they’re facing a big side now and I’m not sure that they’ll cope. They can usually hold their own in their home games and let’s face it – this pitch is a mess and will not help the visitors with their passing game. However, Vojvodina have some very good players in their ranks and have added to their squad over the winter break with ex-Partizan Belgrade playmaker Moreira returning to Serbia and he’ll be playing alongside tenacious Ghanaian midfielder Appiah, which is a daunting midfield combination, in my view. Vojvodina won’t set Serbia alight here as they’re still a little way behind the Belgrade clubs but the gap is closing and it’s game like these that they need to win to achieve their full potential. Vojvodina have the players to do the damage here and I don’t see them losing it, even on this shoddy pitch. Therefore, my call is the away win with draw no bet at 10/11.
Verdict: Vojvodina Novi Sad to win with draw no bet at 10/11.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk – away win with +1.5 handicap at 9/10.
Ok, we all know that Shakhtar are the best side in the Ukraine. However, there’s no way in hell that they’re worth 2/7 against Dnipro! It’s just a joke! That’s like United being priced at 2/7 against Liverpool or Valencia being priced at 2/7 against Athletic Bilbao. Shakhtar could and should win this game but I can count the number of easy games that they’ve had against Dnipro over the past decade on one hand. Additionally, Shakhtar haven’t been able to strengthen their squad during the transfer window as the economy has even affected wealthy Shakhtar chairman Rinat Akhmedov. With Chygrynskyi still out at the back and a lack of finesse more often than not, Shakhtar are going to have to play very well here to break the handicap against a very resilient side and I just don’t think they’re capable of doing it, especially not in their first game back from the winter break. Dnipro have a nasty habit of capitulating from time to time but they’ve signed Mazuch from Anderlecht to strengthen their defensive composure and they’re a nightmare to break down so I think they’ll give Shakhtar a good game here. Therefore, the away win with a +1.5 handicap appeals to me a lot today.
Verdict: Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk to win with a +1.5 handicap at 9/10.
Team news
Some team news I’ve had time to do – the rest will be updated by people throughout the day. Sorry for any inconvenience!
Bulgarian A PFG:
Levski Sofia – Toni Calvo is absent. Pinto is a doubt.
Cherno More Varna – Kolev and Alexandrov are absent. Yanev is a doubt.
Minior Pernik – Tom and Trayanov are absent.
Svetkavitsa – Stachev, Tsvetkov, and Shokolarov are absent.
Chernomorets Burgas – No absentees.
CSKA Sofia – Yanchev, Stoyanov, and Trifonov are absent. Anise is ineligible pending investigation from the Bulgarian FA.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Jablonec – Kocourek, Vukovic, and Kopic are absent.
Ceske Budejovice – Kiesa, Ondracek, Brezinsky, Strasky, and Bakala are absent.
Sigma Olomouc – Rossi, Petr, Horava are absent. Jirous and Ordos are doubts.
Viktoria Zizkov – Kalod and Cermak are absent.
Mlada Boleslav – Opiela, Fabian, Synek, and Johana are absent.
Slavia Prague – Frejlach, Pospech, Simecek, and Kores are absent.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Capelli, Lucchini, Moralez, and Peluso are absent. Carmona is a doubt.
Bologna – Cruz and Loria are absent. Perez is a doubt.
Cagliari – Canini, El-Kabir, Eriksson, Rui Sampaio and Pinilla are absent. Perico, Nene, Cossu, and Agostini are doubts.
Catania – Biagianti, Campagnolo, and Potenza are absent. Suazo and Izco are doubts.
Cesena – Guana, Lauro, and Von Bergen are absent. Djokovic and Comotto are doubts.
Fiorentina – Kharja, Kroldrup, and Olivera are absent. Behrami is a doubt.
Genoa – Antonelli is absent. Bovo and Gilardino are doubts.
Internazionale – Alvarez, Castaignos, Guarin, and Ranocchia are absent. Maicon and Chivu are doubts.
Lazio – Brocchi, Cana, Luluc, Makinwa, Zauri, and Radu are absent. Stankevicius, Rocchi, and Konko are doubts.
Lecce – Falcone, Grossmuller, and Oddo are absent. Brivio is a doubt.
SSC Napoli – Aronica is absent.
Novara – Jensen and Ludi are absent. Morimoto, Marianini, Fontana, Centurioni, and Caracciolo are doubts.
Parma – Floccari, Gobbi, Lucarelli, and Valiani are absent. Palladino, Paletta, and Brandao are doubts.
AS Roma – Burdisso, Cassetti, Gago, Osvaldo are absent. Pjanic and Simplicio are doubts.
Siena – Belmonte, Bolzoni, Brkic, D’Agostino, and Reginaldo are doubts.
Udinese – Abdi, Badu, Isla are absent. Pinzi is a doubt.
Dutch Eredivisie:
Vitesse Arnhem – Annan, Propper, Hofs, and Vink are absent.
De Graafschap – Kujala and Frankel are absent.
FC Utrecht – Van der Gun, Bovenberg, Demouge, Mulenga, Nilsson, and van Dijk are absent.
NEC Nijmegen – No absentees.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Koppers, van der Wiel, Sigthorsson, Boilesen, and Lodeiro are absent.
Roda JC Kerkrade – Hempte, Kieszek, Wielaert, and Vormer are absent.
Feyenoord Rotterdam – Torres, Ramsteijn, and Cisse are absent.
Groningen – van Loo, van de Laak, and Pedersen are absent.
PSV Eindhoven – Tamata and Engelaar are absent.
Twente Enschede – Rendla, Landzaat, Tiendalli, and Verhoek are absent.
Turkish Super Lig:
Bursaspor – Serdar Aziz is absent.
Karabukspor – Deumi, Senol, Guven, and Muhammet are absent.
Gaziantepspor – Mahmut, Kerim, Orhan, Cenk are absent.
Istanbul BB – Ali Guzeldal and Hasagic are absent.
Kayserispor – Hasan Ali is absent.
Manisaspor – Mehmet Guven is absent.
Besiktas JK – Aurelio, Hilbert, Egemen, and Rustu are absent.
Trabzonspor – Glowacki, Vittek, Halil, and Alanzinho are absent.