TFT Issue 363!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Lecce vs AS Roma – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game sees southerners Lecce host flambuoyant Roma in a game where both sides could do with three points.
Both of these two sides are notorious for playing entertaining attacking football whilst also possessing a large number of temperamental players that are easily able to earn themselves red cards! However, we should see a good game here either way and that’s certainly encouraging.
The need that both sides have for the points and the inability that each side demonstrates when it comes to defending makes me think that this is one of those games that is already 1-1 before kick-off in the sense that I can’t see the game ending without both sides scoring. Now, we do need both sides to be in good form in front of goal for this tip to win as Roma in particular have a peculiar habit of being rather lazy/complacent when it comes to taking their chances against the “lesser” sides. However, both sides have more than enough firepower to make it happen so even the absentees for both sides (listed at the bottom of the page) don’t concern me.
Ultimately, this game should go over 2.5 goals, in my eyes. I wouldn’t touch the 1×2 market though, as Roma possess better players but Lecce are a nightmare to face at home.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Additional games
Vojvodina Novi Sad vs Rad Belgrade – over 2.5 goals at 7/5.
Serbia’s Super Liga is not usually the best of places for taking over 2.5 goals games, unless we’re looking at Partizan Belgrade or Red Star Belgrade, of course. The pitches are generally in poor condition so it’s hard for games to go over 2.5 goals. However…
Word has it that Vojvodina are missing all of their back four for this game and will have to play some kids instead. Throw into the mix their poor morale and poor form and we have a potential banana skin for the hosts in this game, despite them still possessing some good players. Offensively, Vojvodina can still trouble the tricky Rad Belgrade but I don’t see how they’ll win it with no defence. Avoid the 1×2 market and the handicaps but I’m all over the over 2.5 goals call at long odds of 7/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 7/5.
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Orebro – home win at 6/5.
Mjallby aren’t a great side but they’re one to respect. The strong winds around Solvesborg make this a rather unique game for visiting sides and it does present the hosts with a useful advantage. Mjallby themselves lack a bit of quality in some key areas but their determination tends to make up for it.
They lost influential midfielder Grahn pre-season, which could really hurt them in their bid to avoid relegation to the Superettan. I expect Mjallby to be even more motivated to win this game today for that reason, though – it was Orebro who signed Grahn! I wonder what odds we’d get on Grahn being booked? Take them if you see them! Mjallby will miss that energy and experience in midfield but their attack still has some threat with old Ekenberg and the lightning-fast Fejzullahu both pose an intriguing threat if they can keep fit long enough to have the necessary impact. I saw Mjallby’s display in Stockholm against AIK at weekend and they looked quite dangerous on the counters, especially considering that they faced a much better side than they are. Mjallby defended solidly and earned their point well so they should bring momentum into this game.
Orebro aren’t the best of travellers and without a reliable defence, I think we’ll see that in its truest form today. Orebro lost 3-4 against newly-promoted Atvidaberg in their opening game of the season, which demonstrates just how far they’ve slipped this season with still no real replacement for centre-back Almeback in sight. Orebro still have some capable players but they’re all in attack – their defence is weak and their midfield is average without the departed duo of Bedoya and Gerzic. To cap it off, Orebro have to play this game on natural turf instead of their usual artificial turf. Hard game much!
This isn’t a banker. Not many Swedish games are. However, what it is is a great value bet, in my eyes, as Mjallby have enough quality up front to punish Orebro’s sloppy defending.
Verdict: Mjallby Solvesborg to win at 6/5.
Atlantas vs Vilnius – under 2.5 goals at evens.
I’d like to give you a proper preview for this game but it’s simply two very, very bad sides locking horns. Atlantas’ financial problems continue to ruin their squad – getting anything from any game this season is a huge achievment for them. The visitors are new to the A Lyga and although they have some quality, it’s minimal at best. There’s very little to choose between these two sides and a shocking lack of firepower on display. For me, this game should go under 2.5 goals all day long.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Prague – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Times aren’t too good for Gambrinus Liga heavyweights Sparta Prague. They’ve been very disappointing in their past few games and the absence of full-back Vidlicka leaves yet another gap that opponents can exploit. Sparta have beaten some crap sides since returning from the winter break but have buckled under any kind of pressure or quality from their opponents, hence losing against Viktoria Plzen and Marila Pribram at home. The latter have no attacking threat nowadays but still won 0-2. Sparta still arguably have the best squad in the Czech Republic but you’d struggle to see that from their recent displays. Kadlec and Kweuke can win any Gambrinus Liga game on their own if they see fit but Sparta’s shambolic defending concerns me. Liberec have played really well this season and they can punish Sparta here if they apply themselves correctly. I genuinely feel that Liberec have a good chance of taking three points from this game because they’re at least consistent if little else. They score goals for fun, enough so to cover for the goals that they concede, and they’re not short on belief either. We should see a very interesting game between two good sides here but for me, the only way to approach this one is to take over 2.5 goals at generous odds of 11/10.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
VfL Wolfsburg vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – over 3 goals at 6/5.
Goals, goals, goals! Wolfsburg’s defence is shocking but their attack has finally started to convert their chances. Magath’s side never struggled to make chances in their recent poor run of form but the morale of their players meant that even the easiest of chances was squandered. At the present time, they’re playing well and with confidence now that they’re scoring goals again. Let’s face it – this is a top six side in disguise. God only knows what they’re doing so far down the Bundesliga table (that said, a win today could actually move them up to 5th!) with a good striker like Helmes in their ranks! Still, four consecutive wins lead them into this game so all is rosy with Wolfsburg right now. They still can and will ship goals but they’re scoring them too now and that’s the main thing here.
Do we have any concerns over Dortmund scoring here? Nope! If they don’t score then it’ll be one of the biggest surprises of the day for me. Will they win here? That’s another matter entirely. There’s no question that they’re good enough to do so but they were good enough to beat Stuttgart lately and yet drew 4-4 at home. That vulnerability will play on the minds of this rather youthful Dortmund side and despite them still possessing some devastating attacking weapons, I do think that their defence will suffer here, especially against in-form Wolfsburg.
Dortmund should edge this one but I see no point in betting on the 1×2 market. Instead, I’d much rather roll with over 3 goals at unbelievable odds of 6/5 with Dortmund rocking slightly and Wolfsburg playing very well of late.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at 6/5.
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Hertha HSC Berlin – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
I’ve had a bit of opposition to this tip from a few different people so please feel free to ignore it or approach with caution, should you wish. I’ll explain my thoughts though.
Gladbach have been brilliant this season but the fact that only Reus scores goals consistently for them is a problem. They work really well as a unit and have a very good manager indeed so Gladbach winning this game should be something of a formality. However, this side has really struggled of late when it comes to scoring goals and taking points and is it any wonder? This side has no depth so every game becomes an uphill task at the moment, even games like this. If Gladbach can lose at home against an average Hoffenheim side then I’m concerned for them in any remaining Bundesliga home game this season, to be horribly blunt. Gladbach are still good enough to win games like these but their displays aren’t convincing and their firepower seems to be dwindling somewhat.
The other side of things is that Hertha aren’t playing well right now. I’ve got a lot of faith in Rehhagel and his ability to organise defences and he’s started to do that here. Hertha don’t have a great defence and thus the bigger goalscoring sides (e.g. Bayern Munich, Wolfsburg) have managed to batter them. After all, there’s still a lot for Hertha to do! However, in their other games, Hertha have kept their goals conceded tally down rather well whilst even posing an attacking threat themselves from time to time. They’ll do well to score against a solid Gladbach defence today, of course, but I think that their organisation will make this a harder game for the hosts than the odds suggest.
Again, approach with caution but for me, under 2.5 goals looks very intriguing at 9/10.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Perth Glory – Coyne and Berger are absent.
Wellington Phoenix – Pantelis is absent.
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk – Bailly, Hubert, Grimi, Camus, Barda, and Ayub are absent.
AA Gent – Lepoint, M’Sila, Soumahoro, and van der Bruggen are absent.
Sint-Truiden – Deferm, Reza, Rossini, Mennes, Buysens, and Volders are absent.
Westerlo – Arbeitman, Adams, Hemmen, Deelkens, Owusu, Liliu, Marcao, Cabeke, Juande, and Roef are absent.
Cercle Brugge – Verbist and Mutombo are absent.
OH Leuven – Hayen is absent.
Zulte-Waregem – Skulason, Habibou, Sterckx, and Matton are absent.
Mons – Lepicier and Mbow are absent.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Litex Lovech – Milanov is absent.
Minior Pernik – Markov and Hristozov are absent.
Ludogorets – Minev, Golubovic, and Kishada are absent. Jarabitsa and Marcelinho are doubts.
Kaliakra – Zakov is absent.
Slavia Sofia – Zhelev is absent.
Croatian Prva Liga:
Sibenik – Subic and Dujakovic are absent.
Dinamo Zagreb – Biscan and Simunic are absent.
Hajduk Split – James, An.Sharbini, Andric, Vukovic, and Maloca are absent.
Karlovac – No absentees.
Rijeka – Svrljuga, Datkovic, and Culina are absent.
NK Zagreb – Niksic and Glasovic are absent.
Zadar – Curjuric, Con, Terkes, and Bilen are absent.
Split – Jelic, Serdarusic, Golubar, Pehar, and Babic are absent.
Istra 1961 – No absentees.
Inter Zapresic – No absentees.
Cypriot Division 1:
Ethnikos Achnas – Stojanovic and Miloudinovic are absent.
Aris Limassol – Kerkez, Markou, Komboyo, and Grouic are absent. Stepanov returns.
Olympiakos Nicosia – Rendon and Rousmir are absent. Chindi, Baic, and Duarte are doubts.
Enosis Neon Paralimni – Yakubu and Mambuya are absent. Semedo returns.
AEK Larnaca – Pintado, Da Silva, Polo, Skopelitis, and Fortin are absent.
Nea Salamis – Graims, Yemboa, and Lambropoulos are absent. Grey is a doubt.
Apollon Limassol – Sissoko, Kolar, and Lambarthe are absent.
Alki Larnaca – Sidney, Bakal, and Dobrasinovic are absent.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Marila Pribram – Tarczal and J.Krejci are absent.
Jablonec – Vukovic and Kocourek are absent. Pitak and Kovarik are doubts.
Slovan Liberec – Janu is a doubt.
Sparta Prague – Vidlicka and Kusnir are absent.
English Championship:
Birmingham City – Carr, Spector, and Ibanez are absent.
Crystal Palace – McShane, Gardner, and Jedinak are absent.
Coventry City – Cameron, Wood, Baker, and Hreidarsson are absent.
Peterborough United – Barnett is a doubt.
Leicester City – Vassell, Waghorn, and Danns are absent.
Doncaster Rovers – Woods, Bamogo, and Spurr are absent. Martis and Chimbonda are doubts.
Derby County – Ward and Ball are absent.
Ipswich Town – No absentees.
Millwall – Trotter, Mkandawire, Racon, and Montgomery are absent.
Hull City – Hobbs, Chester, Dudgeon, and Koren are absent.
Nottingham Forest – No absentees.
Bristol City – Fontaine, Nyatanga, Wilson, Elliott, and Clarkson are absent.
Southampton – Lee and Richardson are absent.
Portsmouth – Thorne, Mokoena, and Kanu are absent.
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Nomme Kalju – Neutral venue. No absentees.
Trans Narva – Kuplovs-Oginskis is absent.
Tallinna Kalev – Kukebal is absent.
Flora Tallinn – No absentees.
Viljandi – Munskind is absent.
Levadia Tallinn – No absentees.
Flora Paide – Reinsoo, Tikenberg, and Koll are absent.
Sillamae Kalev – No absentees.
German Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich – van Buyten, Breno, and Gustavo are absent.
Augsburg – De Jong, Bah, Gogia, Oehrl, and Brinkmann are absent.
SC Freiburg – Barth, Putsila, Dembele, Rosendahl, and Brandstaetter are absent.
Nurnberg – Esswein, Klement, Rakowsky, Eigler, Wolfscheid, and Hlousek are absent.
Kaiserslautern – Knaller, Kouemaha, Simunek, Jorgensen, Sahan, Shechter, and Wagner are absent.
Hoffenheim – Jaissle and Rudy are absent.
Koln – Uth, Chihi, Pezzoni, Novakovic, and Andrezinho are absent.
Werder Bremen – Borowski, Hunt, Stevanovic, Arnautovic, Ekici, Proedl, Naldo, and Bergfrede are absent.
VfB Stuttgart – Celozzi and Boulahrouz are absent.
Mainz 05 – Bell, Risse, Gopko, and Svensson are absent.
VfL Wolfsburg – Ochs, Chris, and Hitzlsperger are absent.
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – Koch, Santana, and Gotze are absent.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Pecsi MFC – Solomon is absent.
Ujpest – Vermes, Szokol, Nagy, and Proesmans are absent.
Szombathelyi Haladas – Nagy, Kenesei, and Vujovics are absent.
Fehervar – No absentees.
Vasas Budapest – No absentees.
Kecskemeti TE – No absentees.
Diosgyori VTK – No absentees.
Lombard Papa – No absentees.
Debreceni VSC – No absentees.
Siofok – No absentees.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Marilungo, Capelli, and Brighi are absent. Denis is a doubt. Alleged to be a fixed draw.
Bologna – Antonsson, Casarini, Crespo, Krhin, and Garics are absent.
Cagliari – Dessena, El-Kabir, Eriksson, Rui Sampaio are absent.
Catania – Potenza and Biagianti are absent. Spolli, Paglialunga, Campagnolo, and Bellusci are doubts.
Cesena – Guana, Iaquinta, Martinez, Mutu, Parolo, and Pudil are absent. Moras and Calderoni are doubts.
Chievo Verona – Sardo, Moscardelli, Gulan, Acerbi, and Dainelli are absent. Facchinetti, Jokic, Mandelli, and Uribe are doubts.
Fiorentina – Cerci, Gamberini, Kroldrup, and Montolivo are absent. Felipe, Cassani, Amauri, and Camporese are doubts.
Genoa – Antonelli, Belluschi, and Constant are absent.
Internazionale – Castaignos, Julio Cesar, Lucio, Maicon, and Sneijder are absent. Alvarez is a doubt.
Lazio – Dias, Brocchi, Klose, Lulic, Radu, and Stankevicius are absent. Matuzalem is a doubt.
Lecce – Esposito and Julio Sergio are absent. Obodo, Ofere, and Carrozzieri are doubts.
AC Milan – Inzaghi, Pato, Strasser, Thiago Silva and Van Bommel are absent. Cassano, Flamini, Seedorf, Nesta, Mexes, Mesbah, Merkel, and Antonini are doubts.
SSC Napoli – Donadel, Gargano, Dossena, Maggio, and Zuniga are absent. Rosati and Grava are doubts.
Novara – Marianini, Ludi, Silva, Paci, and Ujkani are absent. Mascara is a doubt.
Palermo – Aguirregaray, Balzaretti, Bertolo, Donati, Silvestre, Hernandez, and Mantovani are absent. Pisano and Bacinovic are doubts.
Parma – Ferrario, Palladino, and Pavarini are doubts.
AS Roma – Borini, Burdisso, Juan, Lobont, Totti, Simplicio Cassetti, and Greco are absent. Pjanic is a doubt.
Siena – Brienza, Angelo, and Calaio are absent. Del Grosso and Bolzoni are doubts. Alleged to be a fixed draw.
Udinese – Badu, Basta, Battocchio, Fabbrini, Floro Flores, Isla, and Ferronetti are absent.
Latvian Virsliga:
Daugava Riga – Diakvnishvili returns.
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Suduva Marijampole – No news.
Dainava – No news.
Ekranas Panevezys – Kavaliauskas is absent.
Zalgiris Vilnius – No absentees.
Atlantas – No news.
Vilnius – Razanauskas is absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Legia Warsaw – Gol, Astiz, Hubnik, Jedrzejczyk, and Rzezniczak are absent. Kucharczyk and Vrdoljak are doubts. Skorza has to watch this game from the stands.
Ruch Chorzow – Djokic is absent.
Slask Wroclaw – Celeban returns.
GKS Belchatow – Wilusz, Lakic, and Wrobel are absent. Szmatiuk is a doubt.
Jagiellonia Bialystok – Frankowski is absent.
Wisla Krakow – Sobolewski, Bunoza, Chavez, Jovanovic, Czekaj, and Jaliens are absent. Lamey, Paljic, and Diaz return. Uryga may debutise.
Polish Liga 1:
Gornik Polkowice – No news.
Bogdanka Leczna – Pesir, Nildo, El Mehdi, and Ivan Garcia are absent.
Nieciecza – Biskup is absent.
Warta Poznan – No absentees.
Kolejarz Stroze – No news.
Katowice – Holota returns.
Olimpia Grudziadz – Kokoszka is absent.
Polonia Bytom – Maka is absent.
Dolcan Zabki – No news.
Zawisza Bygoszcz – Witan, Jankowski, Geworgian, Ekwueme, and Oleksy are absent.
Flota Swinoujscie – Niewiada and Jasinski are absent.
Wisla Plock – David, Matuszek, and Wyczalkowski are absent.
Ruch Radzionkow – No news.
Arka Gdynia – Jarzebowski and Ivanovski are absent. Nwaogu returns.
Olimpia Elblag – Szamotulski is absent. Sulima, Kolodziejski, and Kaczmarczyk have left the club.
Pogon Szczecin – Djousse and Noll are absent. Hricko returns.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Rio Ave – Jeferson, Ze Gomes, and Jorginho return. Rafael, Wires, Fabio Faria, and Pateiro are absent.
Feirense – Rosado and Cris return. Henrique and Rabiola are absent.
Olhanense – Mauricio and Mexer return. Duarte, Ivanildo, Luis Filipe, Nuno Piloto, and Andre Micael are absent.
Pacos de Ferreira – Ricardo, Luisinho, Cohene, and Sassa are doubts. Andre Leao, Alvarez, Tony, and Manuel Jose are absent.
Maritimo Funchal – Ruben Ferreira, Sami, and Heldon are absent. Joao Luiz and Fabio Felicio return.
Sporting Braga – Salino, Baiano, Paulo Vinicius, and Ruben Amorim are absent.
Porto – Rafael, C.Rodriguez, and Fernando are absent. Djalma returns.
Romanian Liga:
CFR Cluj – Celestino, Cadu, Camora, and Bastos are absent.
Rapid Bucharest – Glauber and Roman are absent.
Russian Premier League:
Amkar Perm’ – Miyaylovich, Smirnov, Volkov, and Cherenchikov are absent.
Rostov-na-Donu – Radic, Bracamonte, and Filatov are absent.
Dinamo Moscow – No absentees.
Rubin Kazan’ – A.Eremenko, Carlos Eduardo, Orehov, and Dyadyun are absent.
Lokomotiv Moscow – Amelchenko, Tarasov, and Tigorev are absent.
Zenit St.Petersburg – Danny and Faizulin are absent. Spaletti has a touchline ban.
CSKA Moscow – Honda, Dzagoev, Gonzalez, Wernbloom, and V.Berzeutskiy are absent.
Anzhi Makhachkala – Joao Carlos is absent.
Scottish Premier League:
Kilmarnock – Kroca, Buijs, O’Leary, Pascali, and Silva are absent.
Celtic – Majstorovic, Forrest, and Wanyama are absent.
Aberdeen – Fyvie, Osbourne, Milsom, and Folly are absent. Anderson and Fallon are doubts.
Dundee United – Lacny is absent.
Dunfermline Athletic – Burns is absent. Rutkiewicz and Buchanan are doubts.
Hearts – Kyle and Templeton are absent. Elliott is a doubt.
Rangers – Whittaker, Wallace, and Naismith are absent.
St.Mirren – Baron is absent.
St.Johnstone – C.Davidson and M.Davidson are doubts.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle – Esson, Hogg, and A.Shinnie are absent.
Serbian Super Liga:
Partizan Belgrade – Tomic and Ilic are doubts.
Vojvodina Novi Sad – Moreira, Appiah, Omaru, Sekulic, Vulicevic, and Mojsov are absent.
Metalac GM – B.Zivkovic is absent.
Rad Belgrade – Pantic is absent.
Novi Pazar – Markovic, Bulatovic, and Sunjarvic are absent. New coach Beklavac takes the reigns.
Red Star Belgrade – Mijailovic, Milunovic, and Milojevic are absent.
Radnicki 1923 – Milosevic and Mutavdzic are absent.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Espanyol – Alvarez, Albin, and Rui Fonte are absent.
Real Sociedad – Inigo Martinez is absent.
Getafe – Lopo and Rafa are absent. Barrada and Pedro Leon are doubts. Pedro Rios and Michel return.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – Michel, Pereira, and Gimenez are absent. Benito and Owusu return.
Osasuna – Balde, Lamah, Sola, and Ruben Gonzalez are absent. Bertran returns.
Real Zaragoza – Apono, Mateos, and Luis Garcia are absent.
Barcelona – Villa and Abidal are absent. Pique will be rested.
Real Betis Balompie – Ruben Castro and Benat are doubts.
Villarreal CF – Zapata, Nilmar, and Rossi are absent.
Turkish Super Lig:
Ankaragucu – Toscali and Cogum are absent.
Kayserispor – Cangele, Semih, Sismanoglu, and Bekdemir are absent.
Bursaspor – Ozan Ipek and Bahadir are absent.
Gaziantepspor – Kerim Zengin, Akin, Gulle, and Ozan Has are absent.
Istanbul BB – Zayatte, Can Arat, Hasagic, Ali Guzeldal, and Haspolatli are absent.
Genclerbirligi – Curri is absent.
Eskisehirspor – Veysel Sari, Sezgin, Alper Potuk, and Dede are absent.
Mersin Idmanyurdu – Ben Yahia, Arikan, Joseph Boum, Atas, Beto, Erman, Zurita, and Nobre are absent.
Fenerbahce – Ozgur Cek, Alex, and Sezer Ozturk are absent. Sow is a doubt.
Antalyaspor – Mehmet Eren, N’djock and Doga are absent.
Samsunspor – Adem, Gekkas, Zenke, and Selim Teber are absent.
Sivasspor – Hayrettin Yerlikaya is absent.