TFT Issue 376!
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Featured game
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Djurgarden – both sides to score at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan encounter between Mjallby Solvesborg and Djurgarden.
Solvesborg is a tough place for the away side in most cases and newly-promoted Atvidaberg were the most recent side to discover that. Mjallby might not have a great deal of flair nor ability but they do have a good level of cohesion and a lot of experienced players in their side. They’re not fools, Mjallby, and only a fool would assume that they were! Up front, the pace of Fejzullahu and the finesse of Ekenberg make a dangerous duo whilst Ericsson and Pode are no mugs. You won’t see Mjallby beaten often at home this season and I don’t think that they’ll lose today, either, with the proviso that they keep their heads. They’ve got a good enough side to measure this one out carefully, take their chances, and possibly take three points from a tricky game.
I like Djurgarden, and I like their displays so far this season even more. True enough, they’ve ended up losing in some games that they’ve played well in but hey, let’s be realistic here – they’ve taken on Elfsborg in Boras and Malmo at home and those are two bloody hard sides to face. Djurgarden should have got something from both games and certainly unsettled their opponents on each occasion. Importantly, talismanic attacker Sjolund should return for this game although Chibsah is suspended. Djurgarden’s midfield is pretty classy, in my eyes, and that should trouble Mjallby today, especially with the hosts still struggling to cope without influential Grahn at the centre of midfield, who now plays for Orebro. Djurgarden are scoring goals this season and the acquisition of Keene from Elfsborg and Ricardo Santos from Kalmar has given today’s visitors real impetus up front. Djurgarden are playing a much more free-flowing passing game now that they don’t have to rely on long balls to Igboananike like they did last season. It helps that calamitous Touray in goal has been replaced by Jensen, too. Djugarden look a much more stable side this season and although there’s still plenty of work to do, the visitors are a side that I will be keeping a close eye on this season.
I would not enter the 1×2 market for this game even if you gave me the money to do so as this one could go either way. I’d side with the hosts if forced because Solvesborg is a nightmare place for an away side. However, there’s enough on the side of both teams here to allow for both sides scoring and thus that bet appeals to me at 5/6.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Additional games
Slovan Liberec vs Viktoria Zizkov – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
One of the top four sides in the Gambrinus Liga hosting the worst one? This one speaks for itself, really.
At home, Slovan Liberec are a good side. They do tend to concede a stupid goal every now and then but their varied firepower impresses me a lot. They bottled it against Sparta Prague in the last few weeks and that could cost them their somewhat unprecedented shot at the title but they’re top at the moment and only wins will keep them there. With only pacey Rilke out for the hosts in this game, you have to expect them to maintain the form that saw them run out 1-3 winners at Banik Ostrava earlier this week. I thought they’d struggle in that game but they were strong mentally and it showed. The experience of Stajner, who is far from my favourite forward, has really shown this season and he’s inspired his teammates with his relentless work ethic. Playmaker Bosancic has impressed, as has Slovak attacker Breznanik. With such a relentless and impressive support, it’s not hard to see why Slovan’s average attackers such as Sural and Nezmar have done as well as they have, not to mention emerging youngster Rabusic. Slovan are a goalscoring side and that’s precisely what I expect them to do against lowly Viktoria Zizkov today, who have already lost ten out of twelve on the road this season whilst averaging conceding over two goals per away game.
Verdict: Slovan Liberec to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Dukla Prague vs Banik Ostrava – home win at 10/11.
With the proviso that Dukla Prague are motivated here, I really fancy them to win at these odds. They play good football with flair and they score goals as a result. They’ve already confirmed their place in the Gambrinus Liga for next season, which is a great achievement for the Czech giants. However, that’s not made them lose any of their determination to win games and they’ve now gone two consecutive games without conceding a goal and winning both games, including a tremendously impressive 0-2 win at a superior Jablonec side last time out. Confidence is high and momentum is strong so the hosts interest me here.
True, the game means more to Banik Ostrava than it does to their hosts. After all, relegation is an impossibility to the minds of Banik fans, who still have some old hands at the club such as Senkerik, Sverkos, and Marek. Banik are a bigger club than their league placing suggests but they’re not doing enough to avoid the drop. This side does not score goals without a lot of assistance and they concede far too many. Their defence is slow, predictable, and predominantly inexperienced, which is a fatal combination. There’s barely a settled eleven in this squad, which doesn’t help stability nor cohesion. Lastly, they’re got good forwards in terms of movement and pace but when it comes to putting the ball in the net, that’s where Sverkos and Senkerik have always fallen down. Banik are in a bad way and going to Prague to take on Dukla whilst needing to attack them and win the game is always a bad idea.
Again, as long as Dukla are motivated, the home win interests me a lot here, especially with Banik missing their best striker (Sverkos) and two regular midfielders Kukec and Marek.
Verdict: Dukla Prague to win at 10/11.
Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg – home win at evens.
Yeah – I’m all over Mainz 05 here! Their form looks haphazard on paper but it’s simply that there are sides that they can beat and sides that they can’t beat. It sounds obvious but that’s truly how it is. Motivation has never been an issue for Tuchel’s side, largely because of him. He gets the best out of his players and a prime example of that is Zidan, whom we’ve not seen playing this good for some time in the Bundesliga. There’s a lot of hard-working players in this Mainz side and some talented ones too. Although defensively unreliable, Mainz 05 are very good at going forward, especially when playing at home, and that’s the predominant reason behind my selection here.
Magath’s Wolfsburg are a bit of an enigma, really. There’s a very good side in there somewhere that only tends to come out for short bursts. In between those times, they tend to ship a lot of goals and miss a lot of easy chances. Their good run was brought to a crashing halt lately by reigning champions Dortmund and they’ve since been beaten at Hannover 96 and even at home against newly-promoted Augsburg. Quite what Madlung was doing for the first goal in that game is beyond me but either way, Wolfsburg are calamitous at the back! Again, there are some good players in the Wolfsburg side, and more than enough of them to score a goal or two here. However, they’re so bad at the back that they’re going to concede at least two goals here and that’s never a good idea against a relentless host such as Mainz.
Wolfsburg should be a shade demoralised following their recent run and given the strong goalscoring displays of Mainz, I expect a convincing home win today.
Verdict: Mainz 05 to win at evens.
Pacos de Ferreira vs Sporting Braga – home win with +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Contrary to what their league placing may suggest, Pacos de Ferreira are not an easy side to face. They will battle for every ball in front of their home fans and that committment – with a bit of luck – has given them a strong home record in the second half of this season. Indeed, only a fortuitous display from CD Nacional de Madeira and a very fortuitous display from SL Benfica has seen them both leave this ground with three points, something that even Porto couldn’t manage recently. Paraguayan striker Melgarejo has played really this season, so much so that SL Benfica will be using him in their first-team next season when his loan spell ends. I’m sure he’ll be working very hard here to help out his parent club by aiding Pacos de Ferreira to beat them today too! Pacos de Ferreira have some good players, all in all, and usually manage to find the net in their home games so I’ll certainly give them the nod here.
Braga are obviously the better side but the short odds on the away win look crazy to me. They’ve lost two consecutive games now, Braga, and it remains to be seen how they’ll bounce back from that. Generally, they’re a close-knit squad and I wouldn’t expect something like that to trouble them but who knows? The big news for Braga is that star playmaker Hugo Viana misses out today and that’s a massive blow as he makes Braga tick. Lima, Barbosa, Cesar – they’re all capable attackers – but you have to wonder how many chances they’ll get without Viana playing, whom Braga don’t really have a proper replacement for.
I expect this game to be a lot tighter than the bookies do, clearly. I actually fancy the hosts to nick a cheeky win here but I’m not brave enough to take it. Instead, I’ll give Pacos de Ferreira a +1 Asian Handicap today as if Braga win then it shouldn’t be by more than a single goal without Viana, especially considering how well the hosts have played of late and how hard they are to play against at home.
Verdict: Pacos de Ferreira to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Team news
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Dukla Prague – Maly is absent.
Banik Ostrava – Marek, Sverkos, Kukec, and Smejkal are absent.
Slovan Liberec – Rilke is absent.
Viktoria Zizkov – Kolod, Cermak, and Folwarczny are absent.
German Bundesliga:
Mainz 05 – Risse and Svensson are absent.
VfL Wolfsburg – Chris, Medojevic, and Hitzlsperger are absent.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Budapest Honved – Hadzic, Czar, Novak, and Delczeg are absent.
Siofok – No absentees.
Dutch Eredivisie:
NAC Breda – Zonneveld, Gudelj, and Kolk are absent.
Roda JC Kerkrade – Staelens, Donald, and Pluim are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Cracovia Krakow – Nawotczynski and Hosek are absent. Grzelak and Nitbazonkiza are doubts.
Widzew Lodz – Dudu and Rybicki are absent. Dhifallah is a doubt. Ben Radhia and Oziebala could return.
Polonia Warsaw – Cotra and Baszczynski are absent. Polonia are very motiated after the chairman froze their wages until they start winning again.
Ruch Chorzow – Szyndrowski and Grodzicki are absent.
Romanian Liga:
Astra Ploiesti – Seto, Laionel, and Matel are absent.
Otelul Galati – Antal is absent.
Steaua Bucharest – Iliev, Parvulescu, Prepelita, Machado, Dananae, and G.Matei are absent.
Vaslui – N’Doye, Cerniauskas, Balaur, and Zmeu are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Mjallby Solvesborg – No news.
Djurgarden – Chibsah is absent.