TFT Issue 395!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Malmo FF vs Helsingborg – home win at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the big Allsvenskan derby between Malmo and Helsingborg. This is arguably the biggest derby in Swedish football so approach this one with caution!
I have to admit that I’m all over Malmo here, though. Unlike their bitter rivals, Malmo provide a constant attacking threat with innumerate attacking options and usually score as a result. I still don’t rate their defence, which is backed up by the fact that they’ve shipped more goals this season than all but three Allsvenskan sides despite being one of the best sides in it. That said, only Elfsborg Boras and newly-promoted Atvidaberg have scored more than they have so you tend to know what to expect from Malmo. I kind of wish that they fucked it up entirely against Atvidaberg last match because Malmo play much better without the pressure of being expected to win games but that’s a difficulty that they’ll hopefully be able to overcome today. Mentally, Malmo aren’t the best in the division; far from it. When it comes to breaking sides down, though, Malmo have looked bloody good this season and I expect them to do just that today.
Helpfully, Helsingborg have prepared for this game really badly, in my view. They’ve looked horribly unconvincing in front of goal, which isn’t a great surprise as they lost two cracking strikers in Jonsson and Gerndt pre-season. Finnbogason is a good replacement but it takes time to integrate players, as we all know. Still, Helsingborg look very slow and predictable this season and the fact that they’ve averaged scoring less than a goal per game backs that up perfectly. A good friend of mine made the point that they’re like AIK Solna this season and he’s absolutely right. Helsingborg have settled down at the back and do look more reliable there as a result. I watched their recent win at GIF Sundsvall, however, and boy were they lucky to claim three points with GIF Sundsvall outplaying them, for my money, not to mention squandering good chances. The only time Helsingborg really penetrated GIF Sundsvall to score the only goal of the game was when GIF Sundsvall’s left-back went to sleep and Helsingborg capitalised. Now, Helsingborg may experience similar joy in attack tonight against Malmo’s shaky defence but they don’t have the luxury of letting their opponents have the ball here because Malmo can and will punish them. Unfortunately for Helsingborg, their defence has suffered a few blows of late with Christoffer Andersson having been ruled out for the season and both Atta and Baffo joining him on the sidelines. Add to that the fact that Krafth is a doubt today and you have to piece together what remains to forget a defence against arguably the best attack in the league. It doesn’t bode well for Helsingborg, does it? Oh, and they’re also missing central midfielder Gashi, who is suspended, which raises further questions about who Helsingborg can possibly field in key areas. I just don’t see how Helsingborg can be organised well enough to get something off their bitter rivals today!
Again, my big concern is that Malmo are bottlers. They don’t tend to perform when they’re expected to as they become complacent and a shit defence like theirs simply can’t keep clean sheets so any complacency in attack will damage them in any game. However, it’s a derby and thus we have to expect Malmo to produce their best here. If they do, I’ve ever confidence in them beating a Helsingborg side that they’re frankly better than right now at decent odds of 9/10.
Verdict: Malmo FF to win at 9/10.
Additional games
Standard de Liege vs AA Gent – lay Standard de Liege at 4/5.
Well, anything but a win for Standard today means that they’re not playing European football next season so they should be at least motivated here. Let’s give the hosts some credit here, too – they’re really not an easy side to face in Liege. Bigger and better sides than Gent have failed here in recent times and Gent could even do the same.
However, I just don’t see it and I’ll explain why. Firstly, Standard are a very regimented side under Riga. That means that they attack cautiously and defend leads well. Unfortunately for them, they’re missing the only good attackers that they have in Tchite and Cyriac. Additionally, they’re missing their back-up strikers in Ezekiel and Batshuayi, which is just ridiculously bad luck for the hosts. Only Gakpe is left and despite his occaisonal touch of skill, the fact is that he’s still never scored for Standard. Oh dear. Standard need to attack or face a season without European football and yet you’d have to struggle to find who will score for them. They managed to beat Kortrijk at home, it’s true, but Kortrijk gifted them at least one of those goals and they also can’t defend. Standard are unlikely to have that luxury here and they’re unlikely to be able to use their defensive strength here in a tactical fashion as they’re the ones that need to win the game.
Gent, on the other hand, can sit back and enjoy this one. They are good at counter-attacking and know that a draw will be enough for them to be playing UEFA Europa League football next season. Still, they must fancy their chances of claiming an automatic UEFA Europa League place rather than the play-off place as three points here plus Genk not beating Club Brugge away (Genk miss a lot of good attackers for this game too) will mean that the last game of the group for both sides is Gent entertaining Genk whereby a win will take them above Genk. Gent should therefore be motivated enough to do well here and let’s face it; they do have the players to damage Standard in Coulibaly, Ilombe, Ljubljankic, and El Ghanassy. Gent were unlucky to lose at Anderlecht recently despite resting a lot of players and I think that their overall displays have merited better results. Will their luck change today?
Whether Gent win or not, I just don’t see how Standard can win this game without a lot of assistance. Therefore, my call is to lay Standard at 4/5.
Verdict: Lay Standard de Liege at 4/5.
HiFK Helsinki vs AC Oulu – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
This is arguably the riskiest call of the day as HiFK are entertaining yet another side that is simply better than they are. However, HiFK have a lot of support at home and if there’s one area that Oulu have struggled of late then it’s scoring goals. They’re a good side when it comes to dominating possession and frustrating their opponents so I don’t expect to see much of HiFK today. After all, the hosts simply haven’t looked good enough lately. However, I have my doubts over whether Oulu can send this game over 2.5 goals and thus under 2.5 goals look appealing at 4/5 as I expect a 0-0, 0-1, or possibly 0-2 scoreline.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
RKC Waalwijk vs Twente Enschede – lay Twente Enschede at 10/11.
I just can’t accept these odds! RKC are actually playing better football than Twente right now! I’m not even joking!
Look, RKC may not have the players that Twente do but they work much better as a unit and they’re far more effective when it comes to creating chances. RKC have no pressure here, let’s not forget. All the RKC fans are over the moon that RKC simply avoided relegation this season so the battle for a UEFA Europa League was not only unexpected but is very much welcomed. The happiness and support of their fans makes Waalwijk a nightmare place for an away side, especially with the tenacious and underestimated hosts playing such free-flowing football and rarely giving anything away. I really rate RKC right now and as long as Sno is passed fit then the odds of RKC winning this one (4/1!!!) look very, very long indeed.
Twente have some good players but how motivated are they here? They’ve lost back-to-back games ahead of this one, each with an unconvincing display, especially in defence. Twente have actually shipped eight goals in two games and morale is beginning to ebb away. Hell, Twente’s last game was a 4-2 defeat at already-relegated VVV Venlo! I gave VVV a +1.5 handicap in that game because I knew VVV had more spirit than Twente and look what happened. Players at Twente are already looking elsewhere for clubs to play for next season, players such as Chadli and Douglas, for example. It doesn’t sound like anyone really gives a shit about the UEFA Europa League with Twente more intent on licking their wounds following their Eredivisie capitulation that saw them toss away a promising lead at the top of the table to fall massively behind eventual champions Ajax. I don’t see enough leaders in this team to concern me so a stagnant Twente side with an unconvincing McClaren in charge doesn’t do it for me today, especially not in Waalwijk.
For me, there’s an awful lot of value to be found in laying Twente here. Indeed, taking RKC with a straight win interests me too!
Verdict: Lay Twente Enschede at 10/11.
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Gefle – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
I said in my Malmo vs Atvidaberg preview that I don’t like handicapping in the Allsvenskan but this is one of the few times that I intend to do it.
Hacken are simply a lot better than Gefle right now. Hacken are not an especially good side as their defence likes to concede goals against…well, everyone. However, their attack, despite the sale of Ranegie, is devastating. They’re the top goalscorers in the Allsvenskan right now and although I firmly believe that that won’t be the case at the end of the season, I’m still happy to ride it for the present time at least. Makondele is playing in inspired form right now and emerging African striker Waris is getting into all the right positions to score goals, although his finishing and composure does need some work. Hacken have no fear and thus attack with great purpose, however, and I like that about them. I don’t expect them to bottle this game like they did in the Goteborg derby of late and I expect them to score enough goals to break the handicap.
Can Gefle score here? Of course they can. Gefle are good enough from set pieces to trouble an unconvincing Hacken defence. However, that would be the only area that Gefle can trouble Hacken right now because Gefle are not only playing terribly but they’re losing confidence and failing to create chances. I’ve watched them a couple of times recently and each time I’ve seen the same thing. They entertained AIK Solna, conceded a stupid early goal, and were chasing the game from them. AIK were content to allow them to have the ball because Gefle did very little to them. Gefle had a couple of good chances at the end but let’s face it – 89 minutes of possession and just a couple of good chances is not good enough. Now, AIK are a good side so perhaps we’re being harsh on Gefle, yeah? Nah! I watched Gefle do the same shit against IFK Norrkoping. Norrkoping are a side that I like a lot but they cannot defend for love nor money. Norrkoping sat back and let Gefle do as they wish whilst picking them off on counter-attacks and winning 0-2. Again, Gefle failed to use their home advantage and again failed to score. There’s a familiar pattern emerging here and if it continues then Gefle will be playing Superettan football next season; it really is that simple. Gefle do not have the depth nor the quality to recover from a bad run so they need to change things now!
But Gefle have been decent on the road so far, right? Wrong. They got lucky at Malmo as Malmo weren’t firing on all cylinders at the start of the season. They were then absolutely torn apart by newly-promoted Atvidaberg in a 6-1 thrashing. After that, Gefle claimed a surprise 0-1 win at Kalmar but Kalmar didn’t put up any fight in that game and Gefle needed a mistake from goalkeeper Berisha to score. I respect Gefle’s fight and organisation but they have zero ability to score goals and that’s one huge problem.
With the hosts scoring goals at will and the visitors unlikely to score without great assistance, I’m sure you can see why the -1 Asian Handicap on Hacken appeals to me at 4/5. I would stress not to take this bet if the odds drop as no side in the Allsvenskan is worth shorter odds than that to beat the -1 line. However, Hacken at 4/5 to beat the -1 Asian Handicap sits quite nicely with my, hence my selection.
Verdict: BK Hacken Goteborg to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Team news
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk – Vossen, de Bruyne, Joneleit, Buffel, Hubert, Ayub, Camus, and Vanden Borre are absent.
Club Brugge – Blondel is absent. Rafaelov is a doubt.
Standard de Liege – Cyriac, Tchite, Ezekiel, and Batshuayi are absent.
AA Gent – Soumahoro, M’sila, and Lepoint are absent.
Kortrijk – Veselinovic is absent.
Anderlecht – Wasilewski and Suarez are absent.
Finnish Ykkonen:
HiFK Helsinki – Karkkainen, Koskinen, and Suikki are absent. Pyhala and Halme are doubts.
AC Oulu – Haapala, Uusitalo, Siira, and Hinkula are absent.
Dutch Eredivisie:
NEC Nijmegen – George, Goossens, Nijland, and Wellenberg are absent. Nuytinck and van Eijden are doubts.
Vitesse Arnhem – Piiroja is absent.
RKC Waalwijk – van Dijk, Ramos, Janssen, and Bandjar are absent. Sno is a doubt.
Twente Enschede – Rendla, John, and Bengtsson are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Malmo FF – No absentees.
Helsingborg – C.Andersson, Gashi, Atta, and Baffo are absent. Krafth is a doubt.
BK Hacken Goteborg – No news.
Gefle – No news.