TFT Issue 459!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Sincere apologies for yesterday’s annihlation that we took. I’d love to be able to explain them but with the exception of the derby game, I just can’t! Onward and upwards, eh?
Allsvenskan/Ykkonen/Veikkausliiga/Eliteserien/Superligaen/Serie A Thoughts
So let’s take a look at what it may be wise to avoid today, shall we?
Looking at the Allsvenskan, you’ve got what should be a routine home win for Elfsborg. I really don’t like the odds, though. Elfsborg are not playing well and Kalmar aren’t as bad as the odds suggest. The artificial turf in Boras only favours one side, even when hosting sides that actually use artificial turf themselves – that should give you an idea about the condition of the pitch. However, Elfsborg are not converting their chances and have lost their composure. Kalmar gave them a very good game a week or so ago and although Kalmar were in Croatia earlier this week competing in European competition, I still don’t see this being a walk in the park for Elfsborg. Very dicey game! I also don’t like the look of AIK vs Atvidaberg, primarily because Atvidaberg know how to score goals regularly and AIK don’t. AIK are the better side and are very good at holding leads – if they get them. They’ve got a trip to Iceland next week to give all their attention to following a 1-1 draw with FH Hafnarfjordur earlier this week in Stockholm so will they rest players here? No idea; best to skip this one entirely.
In Finland, it looks like a nailed-on home win for PK-35 Helsinki. I mean, realistically speaking, they should wipe the floor with HiFK quality-wise. However, HiFK always turn it on for their derby games and have shown a marked improvement of late. PK-35 have actually dropped form-wise and look susceptible. Despite PK-35 being by far the better side, I’ve been burned too many times by HiFK in derbies to even touch this one so a big “no bet” for me.
In the Veikkausliiga, we have some interesting games without interesting odds. For example, I’d be all over IFK Mariehamn with draw no bet against JJK Jyvaskyla but they’re shorter than evens for the straight win so it’s just not worth it. Aland is a hard place to go as it is but JJK have had to play Zeta just a few days ago and have had a packed fixture schedule to boot. JJK are a much better attacking side than IFK but IFK rarely give anything away at home and do have what it takes to beat JJK. At those odds, though, I see no value in this one at all. I also don’t like the idea of betting on under-achieving KuPS, fresh from their victory in Israel, as they host Inter Turku, fresh from their heroic 1-1 draw with Twente in The Netherlands. Both sides have their eyes on their games next week and may rotate players here. Inter are the better side but I’ve no idea who will be rested – if anyone – so it’s better to avoid this one entirely.
In Norway, although the popular thing to do is to bet against Stabaek nowadays, I really wouldn’t do so today. Valerenga are the better side, yes, but finding the occasions where they’ve actually demonstrated their quality this season is very challenging. Stabaek are not as bad as they were at the start of the season and they’re a bit of a threat now. I think Valerenga should win the game but I’d not waste my time by even looking to bet on this one, which has the potential to implode in any bettor’s face.
In the Superligaen, there are a number of dodgy games that I can’t help but sit on the fence for. Aalborg should be able to beat an unrecognisable and financially crippled Brondby side. Aalborg don’t like to be predictable, though – despite being arguably a shade better than Brondby nowadays, there’s every chance that they’ll randomly lose this game 0-4; that’s what you’ll always be up against when betting on Aalborg. So, yeah – no bet. Copenhagen should win at SonderjyskE but Copenhagen suffered some heavy blows pre-season that they’ve yet to recover from, in my view. They were fortunate that Midtylland let them back into the game last week because they weren’t in it until they did. Copenhagen are not the force that they were last season; don’t forget that. SonderjyskE have produced some strange results at home over the years and a draw wouldn’t be the most surprising of outcomes here, I assure you! You have to fancy a new-look OB Odense to beat a poor Randers side but how well will OB take their chances? They’ve yet to sign a natural replacement for Utaka and that hinders their gameplan every time. Randers are bad enough to be torn apart here but I’m not convinced by OB just yet so I’ll avoid this one too.
Lastly, be wary with betting in Brazil’s Serie A tonight. There have been a lot of games in a short space of time, some clubs are missing players at the Olympics, and lots of clubs have missing players right now. One of the games I don’t like for the above reasons is Palmeiras vs Nautico. Palmeiras are awful at goalscoring anyway but they miss a whole host of players for this game, just as they did at Coritiba last time out, which they bafflingly drew despite being massively outplayed. Nautico are capable of springing surprises at home but tend to struggle on the road. No result would really surprise me here. Cruzeiro vs Flamengo is the battle of the consistent under-achievers and I don’t like the look of it one bit. Both sides are capable of being beaten 3-0 here. Cruzeiro are marginally better and more cohesive than Flamengo, not to mention the fact that they’ve been stronger in the transfer market of late. However, you’d be a fool to even look at betting on this minefield of a game. Figueirense vs Sao Paulo is another dubious one as Figueirense are good at home and Sao Paulo are up and down. Absentees, the constant changing of manager, and the difficulty of the away game makes this one a big question mark for Sao Paulo. On paper, you’d have to take the away win but on performances alone, this has 1X written all over it. Then again, Figueirense have a new manager so who knows what will happen? It’s prudent to just avoid this one entirely. Lastly, Bahia should be able to beat Coritiba in Vitoria but they’ve got a lot of absentees and luck isn’t on their side right now. Coritiba are a better goalscoring side than Bahia but Vitoria is a very difficult place to play as an away side. There could be plenty of cards and goals in this one but we could also see a narrow home win if Bahia play their usual home game. I personally feel that it’s better to avoid this one entirely.
Featured game
Internacional vs Atletico Goianiense – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
So what is good to bet on today? Don’t ask me; I have no bloody luck at all right now!
However, my featured game today without a shadow of a doubt would be Internacional vs Atletico Goianiense in Brazil.
Why? Well, Internacional are struggling massively with missing players. They’ve brought in a new manager, which may change their fortunes around. However, there’s a saying in England; “you can’t polish a turd”, which basically means that you can only do so much with what is available to you. Internacional’s new boss Fernandao is a legend at the club and may inspire them to victory here but it’s hard to see them doing so in style with Datolo, D’Alessandro, Leandro Damiao, and Oscar all missing for the hosts tonight. Forlan and Juan are not 100% fit yet and defenders Kleber and Nei are not fit either. Still, the hosts are a well-organised side and few others tend to damage them here unless they play very well and I expect that to be the same again today.
Visitors Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in four out of their five Serie A away games this season. Arguably their most impressive forward Diogo Campos misses out today so poor old Felipe is stranded up front on his own. The experience of Pituca is missing from midfield and with this side already struggling to cope with the superior sides in Serie A, it’s hard to see them coping with Internacional today, even with their hosts missing players.
For me, this game should go under 2.5 goals. With all of Internacional’s attacking talent missing from this game, I think there’s value in this selection at 9/10.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Additional games
Botafogo vs Gremio – home win at 11/10.
Gremio are rapidly becoming the form side in Serie A but their arm will have to have grown long indeed if they think that they can continue that run in Rio de Janeiro against Botafogo. Botafogo are notoriously good at home, especially when it comes to outscoring sides. At long last, the Botafogo fans will get their first glimpse of Dutch legend Clarence Seedorf in a Botafogo shirt too, which should not only boost the morale of the players and the spirits of the fans but should also improve Botafogo’s attacking power. The absence of Elkeson is their only real concern today and thus Seedorf’s debut couldn’t have come at a better time. Botafogo have a whole host of attacking talent ready to unleash upon the Gremio defence and I don’t think that Gremio’s makeshift defence has enough strength to deal with them. Elano has been magnificent since signing for Gremio and he’s inspired the whole team so they’re certainly to be respected here. However, the absence of Kleber does leave Bolivian hitman Moreno somewhat isolated in attack and as good as Elano is, he’s not a one-man band. Gremio’s defensive absentees should come back to haunt them against a very strong Botafogo side, in my view, and thus I find value on the home win at 11/10.
Verdict: Botafogo to win at 11/10.
Ponte Preta vs Fluminense – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
If we’re talking about the Serie A table alone then Ponte Preta’s home record looks strong. It’s certainly enough to make me respect them, admittedly, but is it as good as it’s made out to be? After all, the sides that they’ve beaten at home have been victims of circumstance more than anything. Corinthians were in a bad spell due to resting players for the Copa Libertadores when they lost here. The other two sides that have lost at Ponte Preta have been Palmeiras and Coritiba respectively. Ironically, the two sides were playing each other in the two legs of the Copa do Brasil final around the time that they both faced Ponte Preta away, hence them both resting players for the trip to Sao Paulo and losing. When broken down properly, Ponte Preta’s home record isn’t actually that strong at all and it can’t come as a surprise, either, as they possess very good Serie A grade players, in my view.
Fluminense, on the other hand, look every inch that Serie A giants that they are. Abel Braga is usually spot-on tactically and he has strong players in every position. Thiago Neves and Deco run the show in midfield whilst Fred is back in business with a bang, scoring goals for fun. Abel Braga can still call upon Rafael Moura and Rafael Sobis respectively, not to mention arising youngster Samuel Rosa, so there really is an abundance of talent in the Fluminense ranks. They’re good at taking the lead, good at holding the lead, and are very good at frustrating sides. Therefore, I find it hard to envision them losing against an inferior Ponte Preta side today.
With the above in mind, taking in-form Fluminense to win with draw no bet cover looks good to me at 4/5.
Verdict: Fluminense to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
TPS Turku vs FC Lahti – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Although they frustrate me at times, there are few more convincing home sides than TPS Turku in the Veikkausliiga. Only Inter Turku and HJK Helsinki respectively have won more home games than TPS have in the Veikkausliiga this season and the efficiency that TPS have is the reasoning behind that. They have plenty of quality players and usually have the intelligence to beat sides. Aaritalo is sitll one of the leading marksmen in the division for my money although he’s certainly being given a challenge by arising youngsters Ristola and Okaru respectively. There is plenty of energy and craft in this TPS side and they’re able to hold leads against the lesser sides. With three wins from their last four games leading them into this encounter, I fancy TPS Turku to win this game with a touch of style.
I don’t rate FC Lahti at all but I do respect their form, especially at home. They’ve managed to win some bizarre games at home this season without possessing the quality to do so and thus they are a side to be wary of. On the road, though, they tend to take a bit of a beating. They’ve already succumbed to seven losses in nine away games this season and have been beaten by two goals or more in four of those seven games, three of which were against the heavyweights/strong sides of the division. Lahti have some players in their squad that can win games on their own (e.g. Rafael if given too much space, Bernhardt with set pieces) but generally lack quality in every area.
With that in mind, I have to favour TPS strongly here. For me, there’s value in taking TPS to beat the -1 Asian Handicap today as I can’t envision the game ending without them winning it.
Verdict: TPS Turku to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Brann Bergen vs Aalesund FK – home win at evens.
I have zero faith in Brann Bergen’s ability to defend but when it comes to outscoring sides at home, there are few better sides in Norway than them. Ojo and Akabueze have been lethal up front for Brann and it has to be said that their youngsters have done them proud when it comes to attacking and scoring goals. I had my reservations about them against Odd Grenland after they gave two daft goals away but they responded by scoring six goals and you can’t argue with that, can you? The fact is that the only game that they’ve failed to score in at home this season was bitter rivals Viking Stavanger in the derby so Brann Bergen do know how to find the net. This side has lots of belief and spirit right now and I fancy them to continue their impressive form against Aalesund today.
I do like Aalesund but they’re out of their comfort zone here. They don’t like playing on natural turf and goalscoring is not their forté. They defend well and are well-organised – what else would you expect from a side managed by Rekdal? – but the fact remains that there has only been one away game this season that Aalesund have conceded in and not lost, which was against newly-promoed Sandnes Ulf. Aalesund’s points on the road have almost all come from keeping clean sheets and I’ll be amazed if they can manage that against in-form Brann today. Aalesund are dangerous enough themselves with Phillips, Barrantes, and Morrison pulling the strings in midfield. However, they struggle in the striker department and I think that they’re going to get overrun here.
Frankly, I was surprised to see such generous odds on the Brann Bergen win here and I’m more than happy to take the home win at evens with the above in mind.
Verdict: Brann Bergen to win at evens.
Odd Grenland Skien vs Stromsgodset – over 3 goals at evens.
Although it’s certainly not their preferred style, Odd Grenland have been going over 2.5 goals an awful lately. They’ve actually conceded thirteen goals over their last four Eliteserien game, unsurprisingly losing three of those games. They’re struggling for confidence at the back and although their attack is doing its part to take the pressure off their defence, it’s still not helping them improve their results. Frode Johnsen should be able to cause problems today though, especially having seen how much Stromsgodset struggled in the air against Sandnes Ulf in their last game. Regular defenders Madsen and Nuhu are both suspended for Stromsgodset following dismissals in that game and thus Odd Grenland should have ample opportunities to score goals against Stromsgodset today. Still, Stromsgodset are the form side in Norway right now and sit atop the table as a result. They’ve got a better side than Odd Grenland and they attack with a lot of conviction. They will be playing on artificial turf today, which they love, and they’ve got more than enough firepower to punish their absent-minded hosts, especially with big Peter Kovacs on the park.
For me, this game really should go over 3 goals at evens.
Verdict: Over 3 goals at evens.
Team news
Brazilian Serie A:
Cruzeiro – Diego Renan is absent. Tinga and Leo are doubts. Sandro Silva and Charles can now play for Cruzeiro.
Flamengo – Caceres, Muralha, Maldonado, and Deivid are absent. Marcos Gonzalez is a doubt. Ramon returns. Reports suggest that Joel Santana will not use Ibson amd Renato Abreu in this game.
Figueirense – Abreu, Toro, Joao Paulo, Heber, and Franco Niell are absent. Manager Argel has been sacked.
Sao Paulo – Osvaldo, Lucas Moura, Canete, Fabricio, Ceni, Uvini, Rodrigo Caio, and Wellington are absent. Maicon and Denilson return.
Internacional – Leandro Damiao, Oscar, Kleber, Datolo, Nei, and D’Alessandro are absent. Forlan and Juan are doubts. Fernandao has replaced Dorival Junior as boss.
Atletico Goianiense – Diogo Campos, Pituca, Marcos, Leonardo, Felipe Brisola, and Adriano Pimenta are absent. Felipe is a doubt. Gilson and Ricardo Bueno return. Elias has left.
Palmeiras – Luan, Roman, Thiago Heleno, and Mauricio Ramos are absent. Barcos and Marcos Assuncao are doubts. Maykon Leite, Henrique, Joao Vitor, and Valdivia return. Obina could feature.
Nautico – Martinez, Souza, Ronaldo Alves, Rogerio, Marlon, and Cascata are absent. Lucio returns.
Bahia – Danny Morais, Gabriel, Elias, Jeferson, Coelho, and Madson are absent. Caio Junior replaces Falcao as boss although Eduardo Barrocas is in charge for this game. Fahel returns.
Coritiba – Rafinha, Anderson Aquino, Lucas Mendes, Pereira, and Lincoln are absent. Roberto and Gil return.
Botafogo – Elkeson and Mattos are absent. Seedorf may debutise.
Gremio – Kleber, Edilson, Fabio Aurelio, and Julio Cesar are absent. Werley returns.
Ponte Preta – Tiago Alves, Wescley, Rildo, and Bruno Nunes are absent. Gustavo will debutise in place of Tiago Alves.
Fluminense – Diguinho is absent. Carlinhos is a doubt.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
IFK Mariehamn – Okodugha is absent. Jagne and Lundberg are doubts.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Turpeeniemi and Manninen are absent. Virtanen and Poutiainen are doubts.
KuPS Kuopio – Holopainen is absent. Venelainen is a doubt.
Inter Turku – Bahne is absent. Nikkari and Paajanen are doubts.
MyPa Anjalankoski – Sihvola and Kaipio are absent. Anttilainen is a doubt.
FC Honka Espoo – Rexhepi, Ahola, and Aijala are absent.
TPS Turku – Makinen is absent. Okaru is a doubt.
FC Lahti – Veltheim, Kemppinen, and Kari are absent. Heinonen and Hukka are doubts.
Finnish Ykkonen:
PK-35 Helsinki – Raimi, Seferi, Karki, and Kabashi are absent. Weckstrom and Olatuga are doubts. Sorja and Salmi return.
HiFK Helsinki – Tanner, J.Halme, Kibona, Koskinen, Kastrati, and Saari are absent.
Russian Premier League:
Zenit St.Petersburg – Danny is absent.
Amkar Perm’ – Narubin is absent.
Krylya Sovetov Samara – Kontsedalov and Taranov are absent.
Terek Grozny – Mguni, Sadayev, and Katsaev are absent.
Anzhi Makhachkala – No news.
Kuban’ Krasnodar – Petrescu and Rogochy are absent.
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Elfsborg Boras – No news.
Kalmar FF – Carlsson, Eriksson, Solheim, and Wasta are absent.
AIK Solna – No absentees.
Atvidaberg – Hallingstrom is absent.